Aubrey McClendon
Analyst · Simmons & Company
Thank you, Jeff, and good morning to you all. We hope you had time to review Monday's operational release and yesterday's financial release. We always strive to provide the most detailed information in the industry to our investors. On the operational side, our daily production for the first quarter was very strong at 2.8 Bcfe, up 14% year-over-year, and that's after selling a significant amount of production through various VPPs, asset sales and our Barnett joint venture deal with Total. On a sequential basis, our production was up 8%, and most importantly, our liquids production was up 41% year-over-year. Because of the strength of our drilling program and the outstanding performance of our wells, we are increasing our 2010 and 2011 production growth forecast to 13% for 2010 and 18% for 2011. Much of that growth will come from our rapidly increasing liquids production. In fact, we expect our liquids production to increase by 60% in 2010 and 80% in 2011, both of which are remarkable numbers, especially for a company of our size. Next, I'd like to highlight our exceptionally low finding cost rate in for the first half of the year. We added a net 1.2 Tcfe at a drilling and completion cost of only $0.87 per Mcfe. I don't believe there's another company in the industry as capable of adding 2.5 to 3 Tcf per year to there proved reserves at under $1 per Mcfe. And this success has been achieved by the nation's most active and highest quality drilling program, led by our industry-leading leasehold positions in America's best unconventional natural gas liquids plays. The growth in our liquids production and in our proved reserves and our planned slowdown in natural gas drilling are our most important messages today. I want to make clear, in fact, crystal clear that Chesapeake is pursuing a differentiated growth model for many of our colleagues in the industry. The CHK model is not a commitment to increasing gas productions without regard to natural gas prices. Quite the opposite, in fact. Unless gas prices increase over $6 per MCF, Chesapeake is committed to continuing to reduce its gas drilling CapEx, increase its liquids drilling CapEx. In fact, in 2011, we will see an $800-million swing as we reduce gas CapEx by $400 million and increase liquids CapEx by that same $400 million, all the while planning to keep year-over-year CapEx flat. I'll repeat, we are reducing natural gas CapEx, while increasing liquids CapEx, while planning to keep overall drilling CapEx flat in 2011 versus 2010. With regard to the oil and liquids plays that will drive Chesapeake's growth model in the years ahead, I want to remind you that we started to make this transition back in 2008 when it became clear to us that oil prices were likely to outperform natural gas prices for a long time to come. However, because of the long lead time in developing the technological expertise to find and test unconventional oil plays and the length of time it takes to put leasehold plays together, it is only now that we are really starting to see the payoff from the strategy shift that we initiated in 2008. This will be the single largest strategy shift in Chesapeake's history. And once it has been completed during the next few years, it will generate huge benefits to our shareholders. And we believe that unlike with natural gas, Chesapeake's success in finding large new reserves of unconventional oil in the U.S. will not negatively affect oil prices. Obviously, this has not been the case with our large discoveries of unconventional natural gas during the past few years. One final thought on our liquids plays. For now, we are disclosing the names and locations of 12 of these plays, but there are more on the way. In these 12 plays, we have drilled about 280 wells and have a amassed an industry-leading position of 2.4 million acres, on which we have identified more than 8 billion barrels of potential unrisk liquids-rich resources. We now own the largest inventory of leasehold in two of the top three new unconventional liquids plays in Niobrara and the Eagle Ford Shale, where we now on 675,000 and 550,000 net acres, respectively, located very strategically in the liquids-rich portion of each play. We are especially pleased about our position in the Eagle Ford and are very excited to move forward with the JV on this acreage. We are in good position here with many potential partners, all of whom we believe are working hard to get to the right answer. Speaking of acreage, I am well aware of the huge amount of capital we have laid out for acreage so far this year as we transition away from our former gas-only strategy and towards our more balanced gas-and-oil strategy. First of all, some of our gassy peers have chosen not to make this transition and appear willing to take their chances with future gas prices. That is a risk to which I am not willing to expose our investors. On the other hand, if you believe oil and NGL prices will be much stronger than gas prices for a long time into the future, as we do, then you have two choices: You can either buy your way into more liquids production through acquisitions, or you can organically grow your way into more liquids production through leasing and drilling. The first approach is one that has been taken by some companies recently, but it is a very, very expensive route. We prefer the second approach, provided it is onshore and in the U.S.A. We started building the foundation for this transition back in 2008 with our discovery of the Granite Wash play in Western Oklahoma. During the past two years, our move to oil has been gaining momentum until this year, when the pace greatly quickened as about 10 new oil plays developed either under our initiative or, in a few cases, by some of our peers. My review of the recent history of the unconventional gas business tells me that it took only about three years from the confirmation of the Barnett size and the Fayetteville discovery in 2005 to the discovery of the Haynesville, Marcellus and down-dip Eagle Ford in 2007 and 2008. I hope you'll recognize that there hasn't been another big unconventional gas play since those discoveries of two years ago. If you didn't play big in those three years from 2005 to 2008, then you are left behind or relegated to paying big premiums to established positions in these premier new unconventional gas plays. Paying up after the fact can work just fine for big international companies, but it doesn't work for us. In moving from unconventional gas history to thinking more about how the history of unconventional liquids will be written, it was my assessment that 2010 would be the year that companies either lockdown positions in this big new liquids plays or were left out and left behind or perhaps relegated to paying very big premiums down the road. I decided that Chesapeake had to play, while costs were still affordable for companies of our size, and we have played in a big way. While we still have more leasing to complete in the second half of 2010, the spend will not be as heavy as it was in the first half. Furthermore, starting in the third quarter of 2010, we will begin selling off minority positions in some of these new oil plays to recover much, if not all, of our initial leasehold investment. That process will continue into 2011. And when it's all said and done, we will have locked down the best unconventional liquids position in the industry and we will have very low remaining costs in our retained acreage. If you do not believe that we are capable of this, then I respectfully refer you to the $10 billion of joint ventures we entered into in the big four shale gas plays in 2008 and in early 2009, in which we sold about $2 billion of leasehold cost for $10 billion in value. There is one more aspect of our leasehold buying and selling I'd like to discuss. For CHK tax reasons and for partner cash flow reasons, when we sell acreage into a JV, we only receive a portion of the total consideration in upfront cash. The rest comes in drilling carries over time, i.e., a reduction in our CapEx for drilling. For starters, we can't book this drilling carries as receivables because their contingent on us drilling wells to earn the carry. That's always a disappointment as our financial statements do not reflect these very big and very valuable drilling carry, which total right now about $3 billion. I can assure you that we will drill the wells over time, and we will receive this cash. However, when we receive the cash, we record it as a reduction in our drilling CapEx, not as a reduction in our leasehold CapEx. However, it is in fact very much a recovery of leasehold CapEx that has simply been triggered by drilling, but that's not the way it shows up on our financial statements. Since many analysts routinely kick out our carries in their analysis of our finding costs because to them they are somehow not real, we end up with the worst of all world. Our industry-leading low finding costs are virtually disregarded, and our industry-leading leasehold CapEx investments are overstated by the amount of the drilling carries received. Therefore, our true leasehold CapEx should always be evaluated by looking at what we spend, less what we collect in upfront cash and then also less what we will collect in future drilling carries. This is a big issue, and I hope you will now have a better appreciation of how our leasehold CapEx is always overstated and in my view, therefore, very likely underappreciated as our number one profit center over the years. One more thing in regard to profit centers, I do hope you will recognize that our cash hedging gains since 2001 have now reached $5.4 billion. I offer congratulations to the other two members of the hedging committee, they are here with me today, Marc Rowland and Jeff Mobley. We have delivered outstanding value to investors here in far greater amounts than anyone else in the industry has, and I do believe this is a vastly underappreciated aspect of management's performance over time. So I'd like to close my commentary with reading you an excerpt from our press release that we believe very clearly states what we are seeking to accomplish this year and in the years ahead. We plan to reduce drilling and natural gas well, except for those required to hold leasehold by production or to use a drilling carry provided by a joint venture partner until such time as natural gas prices rise above $6 per MCF. We plan to lease and develop substantial new liquids-rich plays in which the company can acquire very large leasehold positions of 250,000 to 750,000 net acres. Within one year of acquisition, we plan to sell a minority position in a new play recovering all or virtually all of the costs acquired to leasehold in the play and to fund a significant portion of Chesapeake's future drilling costs in the play. We plan to accelerate drilling of liquids-rich plays until year-end 2012, when the company's drilling capital expenditures are balanced, approximately 50-50 between natural gas and liquids. We plan to continue adding proved reserves, net of monetizations and divestitures, of approximately 2.5 to 3.0 Tcfe or up to 500 million barrels annually. And we project by the end of 2012, we are likely to own 18 Tcf of proved reserves and about 1 billion barrels of oil. I encourage you to consider what that would be worth. And finally, we plan to accomplish these goals without the issuance of additional equity and with a reduction of debt levels, such that the company becomes investment grade within the next few years. The key challenge we face in implementing this strategy is to allocate capital between our very large gas asset base and our emerging unconventional liquids plays. We have considerable gas drilling that we need to drill to earn the $3 billion of outstanding carries and also to hold very valuable and very high-quality gas acreage, but we also have tremendous opportunities in new unconventional liquids plays. These two activities result in very large capital needs. Fortunately, our assets are exceptional, and we've been able to attract partners, or expect to, who will finance much of our new liquids projects. Because our assets are so valuable, we will be able to accomplish the oil and gas industry hat trick in the years ahead. We will grow reserves and production by 13% to 18% annually, reduce leverage and not issue any additional equity. Our assets give us the ability to use a range of asset-level financing tools to raise money at significant premiums to our cost bases in these assets. In summary, having helped to revolutionize the onshore U.S. natural gas business, we look forward to doing the same for the U.S. oil business, but we will do so receiving $10 to $15 per production unit versus the $4 to $5 per production unit we're receiving for our gas right now. This brighter, more profitable tomorrow cannot arrive soon enough for me. This completes my commentary, and I'll now turn the call over to Marc.