Jeanne Jones
Analyst · Barclays
Thank you, Calvin, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our fourth quarter and full year results, key regulatory developments and updates to our financial disclosures, including 2026 guidance. Starting on Slide 7, as Calvin noted, since becoming a stand-alone utility, we have continued to execute, and 2025 adds to that track record. In 2025, we delivered $2.73 per share on a GAAP basis and $2.77 per share on a non-GAAP basis for the full year, reflecting strong year-over-year growth. For the quarter, Exelon earned $0.58 on a GAAP basis and $0.59 on a non-GAAP basis. Full year earnings above our guidance range primarily benefited from favorable weather and storm conditions and the resolution of certain regulatory proceedings. Throughout the year, we also managed costs well across the platform, ensuring we can accommodate a range of outcomes while monitoring regulatory activity and weather in the fourth quarter. Quarter-to-date and year-to-date drivers relative to prior year can be found on Appendix slides 37 and 38. Turning to Slide 8, we are initiating 2026 operating earnings guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share. With much of our growth aligned with completed rate cases and continued strong cost management, the 2026 implied midpoint relative to the midpoint of our 2025 estimated guidance range is ahead of previous disclosures, reflecting midpoint-to-midpoint growth above 6%. Our performance in 2025 underscores our ability to deliver strong financial results amid uncertainty, all while operating at industry-leading levels and innovating to find new and creative ways to support our customers. We've executed operational efficiencies, capitalized on our growth opportunities and identified more ways than ever to support our customers. We look forward to furthering this progress in 2026. Looking ahead to the first quarter, we expect earnings to be approximately 31% of the midpoint of our projected full year earnings guidance range, which is in line with historical averages. This accounts for completed regulatory filings, anticipated revenue shaping and O&M timing as well as normal weather and storm conditions throughout the quarter. Turning to Slide 9, we executed another busy regulatory calendar in 2025, marking significant milestones and reaching final resolution on open reconciliations and key rate cases, providing cost recovery for the next several years. Starting with Atlantic City Electric, in November, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities approved a settlement supporting the recovery of $54 million associated with grid improvements and modernization investments in line with New Jersey's Energy Master Plan and the Clean Energy Act, at a 9.6% ROE. New rates went into effect at the beginning of December 2025. Also, in December, the Delaware Public Service Commission issued a final order on the Delmarva Power gas rate case, approving a settlement that supports the $21.5 million revenue requirement and 9.6% ROE, recovering various reliability investments and LNG plant upgrades, which protect customers from price volatility during peak periods. Rates went into effect at the beginning of this year. In addition to closing out base rate case activity, we also received final orders in our open reconciliations at BGE and ComEd in December, now gaining clarity on the recovery of our investments from 2023 and 2024. While we were disappointed to receive about half of the BGE reconciliation, we realigned capital accordingly. Finally, moving to our current regulatory activity for 2026, the Pepco Maryland base rate case continues to progress according to the procedural schedule, with intervenor testimony filed at the end of last month. A final order is expected in August this year. In December, Delmarva Power filed an electric base rate case in Delaware, requesting a net revenue increase of $44.6 million to support system reliability investments, storm remediation and storm damage costs. DPL also requested to implement a bill stabilization adjustment, which will offer customers more predictability as seasonal temperatures grow increasingly volatile. DPL expects to be able to implement interim rates in effect on July 9. Finally, on January 16, ComEd filed its multiyear grid plan in Illinois, requesting an approval of an investment plan covering 2028 through 2031 in support of the priorities laid out in the state's CEJA and CRGA bills. A final order is expected in December, and the company expects to file its next rate filing in 2027. On Slide 10, we provide updated utility CapEx and rate base outlook through 2029. We plan to invest almost $10 billion in 2026 and a total of $41.3 billion over the next 4 years, an increase of $3.3 billion or 9% from the prior 4-year planning period. Incremental investments reflect updates to align with recently approved rate cases and jurisdictional priorities and an increase in transmission investments. Of the overall increase, approximately 70% or $2.3 billion is attributable to incremental transmission investments driven by the structural trends that underpin the energy transformation in our jurisdictions: increased demand for high-voltage investments and capacity expansion to support large load growth, evolving generation supply and the reliability and resiliency needs of grid customers to withstand increasingly volatile weather. In fact, the majority of the additional transmission relates to continued system performance and capacity expansion across our platform, supporting incremental data center load in addition to the gradual replacement of an aging network. Our plan also includes an additional year of investment of our 2 largest transmission projects, Brandon Shores and Tri-County, going into service in 2028 through 2030, along with the early spend of the MISO Tranche 2.1 project which goes into service in 2034. Our annualized rate base growth of 7.9% over the next 4 years reflects an increase from the prior year plan, with a projected addition of nearly $23 billion in rate base from '25 to '29. Having executed within 2% of our capital plan since 2023, we are confident we will execute this next stage of growth, driving progress towards economic and energy goals and always prioritizing our customer needs in everything that we do. Moving to Slide 11. Our size and scale, award-winning reliability and expertise in owning and operating 765kV lines uniquely position us to capitalize on additional transmission opportunities that enable us to grow our transmission rate base CAGR by over 15% from '25 through the end of the guidance period. Coupled with our strength in execution, we now have line of sight to an additional $12 billion to $17 billion of transmission opportunities over the next decade, that strengthen and lengthen our plan. Of which, over 60% includes projects associated with our existing infrastructure, supporting continued reliability, generator deactivations, and providing additional operational flexibility and efficiency. This upside also includes an estimated $1 billion of transmission associated with high-density load projects, with signed TSAs, where we now have a foundation for additional certainty in our pipeline as agreements are presented to customers coming out of our Cluster Study process. We also remain optimistic about the work associated with MISO Tranche 2.1 with over $1 billion of investment in our ComEd service territory, which is now awaiting a cost allocation filing at FERC. Beyond these opportunities, we anticipate additional investment required to support our states' public policy goals, particularly as our jurisdictions assess energy security and economic development needs. For example, achieving CEJA's goals amid growing economic development in Illinois will likely require billions in transmission investments. Finally, as we discussed in prior quarters, success in winning competitively bid projects offer additional upside. From our success in winning the Tri-County project to the $1.2 billion in Exelon investment PJM has recommended in this recent window, our size, scale and expertise position us well to pursue competitive opportunities outside of our service territories within and outside of PJM. Our ability to play with $10 billion of capital annually over the next 4 years is only possible with a rigorous focus on cost management and delivering value through those investments, supporting customer rates at -- supporting customer bills at rates 19% to 20% below national averages. This focus is saving our customers approximately $580 million in O&M annually relative to what it would have been growing at a standard inflation level over the last decade. We feel confident we can continue to keep our expense growth well below inflation levels, demonstrating nearly flat expense growth from '24 to '26 and targeting no more than 2.5% adjusted O&M growth through '29. As we talked about last year, our institutionalized team and our One Exelon culture are committed to delivering value. We have taken advantage of our focused operations along with our size and scale to continue to standardize and streamline our structure and operations. Driving out $580 million in the annual O&M savings is no small task, but it's something our customers and shareholders have come to expect. Exelon's unique platform and industry best practices enable us to build upon these savings with line of sight to additional opportunities. As investment needs grow to meet unprecedented load growth and reliability needs, our customers remain our top priority. Since 2021, Exelon's portion of the average customer bill as a percent of median income has remained relatively flat, growing only 10 basis points, while maintaining top-quartile reliability which saved customers $1 billion in avoided outage costs last year alone. We've reduced annual customer interruptions by nearly 2 million since 2021 and made significant economic impact in our communities. Since 2021, we've employed 20,000 people, sustained 50,000 jobs and have fostered nearly $60 billion in economic activity in our communities. Bringing value to our customers is foundational to what we do and it's why we invest in the grid. That's why we've committed to keeping our O&M cost relatively flat from '24 to '26 and in partnership with our jurisdictions, have committed to support our customers through nation-leading programs and advocacy efforts. Conversely, the supply side of the average monthly residential bill in the Mid-Atlantic has increased up to 80% or more over the last 5 years. Customers are now paying more for less. Since July of 2024, PJM customers have paid more than $32 billion as supply in the market declined 1.2 gigawatts. That's why we continue to be at the forefront for advocating for our customers across federal, PJM and state levels, ensuring that every dollar our customers spend can be tied to additional value they receive. We are pleased that federal discussions propose the extension of the PJM capacity auction collar, saving customers tens of billions of dollars through 2030. But our advocacy efforts don't stop there. We are committed to advocating for other policies, such as interconnection queue and rate design reforms that protect customers and support economic development. Our first-of-its-kind transmission security agreements filed at FERC do just that, providing a clear path to interconnection while protecting existing customers. We believe all solutions are required to support energy security and drive affordability. This includes encouraging state procure solutions such as utility-generated power, which can bring certainty that the supply will be there, offer our states control and ultimately benefit our customers. Turning to Slide 14, with prudent O&M spending and $41.3 billion of projected capital spend driving 7.9% rate base growth, along with earning ROEs of 9% to 10%, we are projecting compounded annual earnings growth near the top end of 5% to 7% from our 2025 guidance midpoint of $2.69 per share through 2029. We continue to build momentum across our jurisdictions as we make progress on Pepco and Delmarva rate cases, the ComEd grid plan and as BGE prepares to file later this year. We look forward to working with our stakeholders to align on the investments that benefit our customers, enable us to maintain and improve upon our operational excellence, all at a fair return. Maintaining our commitment to transparency, we have provided assumptions associated with our expected annual growth in earnings through 2029 on Appendix Slide 23. As you can see, we expect to deliver the out years near the top end of the 5% to 7% range, aligned for flexibility of rate case timing and keeping us on track to deliver near the top end of our 5% to 7% annualized growth rate from '25 to '29. We're also continuing to project an annual dividend growth at 5% and anticipate paying out a dividend of $1.68 per share in 2026 in line with that growth. Finally, turning to Slide 15, I will conclude with a review of our balance sheet and financing activity, where we've continued to derisk and secure cost-effective capital to invest for the benefit of our customers. In December, Exelon Corporate issued $1 billion in convertible debt, pulling forward almost over half of our planned long-term corporate debt needs for '26. Through 2029, we expect to fund the $41.3 billion capital plan with $22 billion of internally generated cash flow, $13 billion of debt at the utilities and $3 billion of total debt at the holding company, with the balance funded with a modest amount of equity. As a reminder, our policy is to fund the incremental capital needs with approximately 40% of equity. Specifically, our total equity needs of $3.4 billion over the 4-year plan implies approximately $850 million of annualized equity needs, less than 2% of Exelon's annual market cap. We have already made progress on 20% of these equity needs, having priced $700 million in 2025 using forward contracts under our ATM. Our financial plan has been designed to accommodate the use of other fixed income securities that receive equity credit in place of senior debt at our holding company. Identifying opportunities to mitigate risk and maintain a strong balance sheet continues to be core to our strategy. And in 2025, our average credit metrics of 13.5% exceeded our downgrade threshold of 12% at Moody's by 150 basis points. With our balanced funding strategy in place, we target credit metrics of 14% over the planning period, providing 100 to 200 basis points of financial flexibility on average over our downgrade thresholds at S&P and Moody's throughout our guidance period. We also continue to advocate for a language that incorporates all tax repairs for calculating the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax, which is now reflected in our disclosures. As a reminder, without the implementation of tax repairs deduction, our anticipated consolidated credit metrics would average over the plan closer to 13%. Supported by our history of execution, I want to close by reiterating our confidence not only in the plan we have laid out, but also in the broader opportunity we have to deliver value for our customers and our shareholders for another 25 years and beyond. I'll now turn it back to Calvin for his closing remarks.