Dominic Ng
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead
Well, first of all we have to look at -- we have $29.6 billion in loans and then so far we actually do a pretty in-depth review of based on the industry goals which -- they were like 1300 plus items that potentially that maybe subject to tariffs in U.S. and then there are items, well, from China also they have 200 or 300 items. We look at everyone of those matching up with our customer and with the business they do and with that information that we at least if we come up with a exposure that is actually less than 3% of our total population which give us a lot of comfort just because they were tariffs, doesn't mean they cannot sell. No, eventually, there will be situation neither importers or exporters have to eat some of the prices or to consumers ultimately have to take the hit. How is that all going to happen? I think time would tell offered at a minimum what we trying to do is that we identify one other companies that potentially have exposure. Secondly, none of these companies are going to sit there and do nothing and be static and many of them have different ideas about what they need to do either they are going to have to find alternative sources or they expect it, there will be price increases that they may have to charge to consumers. Invariably everyone would have to figure out the business model. It would be no different that whether East West bank or any other banks, therefore, any particular sector that have a slowdown, we are going to have to move to others. I will give you examples, if today the interest rate -- at the long rate is now at 5%, 6%, I would say that it's going to be quite [prohibited] [ph], until you get a fixed rate mortgages. And at that point I would think that refinancing and even home buying type of financing would not be -- the volume would not be as strong. And what we have internally and joined today and at that point, clients would have to make adjustment accordingly to expand in other areas. Let me look back into what we have done. Over 10 years ago, close to 80% of our portfolio and the entire loan portfolio are would have stabilized. And today, we split quite evenly from 30 some odd percent in C&I, 30-some odd percent in COE and then about 30% in consumer and mortgages, nicely diversified and the last several years we have added a lot of new industry protocols in the C&I side such as entertainment, digital and media that would -- just happened today. There was not a whole of tariffs can put on service industries. So out of those combination you have a diversified portfolio so any of these type of situation may not be dead because of the challenge to our revenue growth let's get back to credit. Again, just because one company may have a tariff issue that not necessarily mean that will be a major blow to that particular company. Now, we have to look back each industry or each particular company may have a different perspective or different type of challenges. We just happened that we are not active into the agriculture business such as soybean, no -- sorghum and then things likes that. There are some companies, some banks in the Midwest, maybe having some challenges right now. But, it just happened at East West, we have not been sort of like actively bringing in business, they have these over-concentration of export to China. So when you look at all the different -- business different industries there are some business have over-concentration of export to one -- while to China, they will probably have a little bit harder time to deal with that change indeed if there was a tariff that will be implemented. However, for many others that may have a diversified business and they have many different ways to navigate. We at this point look at many of these customers line by line and we have not yet seen any sort of major challenges that we would be concerned from a credit perspective. Now we also have to keep in mind at this point, while there was a lot of political rhetoric of terrorists, the U.S. government have made it very clear in May they are going to conduct a public hearing from business and then they will continue to evaluate and they have all the way until late summer or even less to make a decision whether they would do anything or not. In the meantime both countries continue to negotiate. So we hope that after different rounds of negotiation they will come up with a final win-win solution and if not we just have to deal with according to. One thing I can assure you is that East West, it's a lot more up to speed with what's happening with the terror situation despite the fact that we may not actually have as material of an impact like many of the Midwest banks that are out there. So on -- but on the other hand, I just looked at it is that we know this business, we know how to assess credit risk. We know what's happening with a terrorist situation. We know what the negotiations are going on right now and we are most likely -- will be the bank that have most confidence in terms of dealing with what's happening.