Dominic Ng
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead
Not much to East West. Specifically, first of all when you look at our East West clients in China, and they are all commercial clients and almost everyone of them business that has something to do with U.S. whether they are trading to U.S. or maybe business that are investing in U.S. And then there are always some sort of connection in U.S. in various different industries, but in the commercial banking, is really in the business banking world. And we don’t do consumer business in China. So if you look at the issue in terms of the stock market, and margin loans to consumers and things like that, that’s really not relevant to East West. That’s one. Secondly, if you look at the overall economy in China, the stock market, really hasn’t quite impact much due to overall GDP. Because as of today, but, first of all, if you look at the stock market duty overall consumer, the financial asset is less than 15%. So China consumer really has not as actively engaged in the stock market like United States. And while there are lot of headline news in U.S. talking about the crash. I think that, I want to give a more objective perspective is that. If you look at just 12 months ago the Shanghai index was traded just above 2,000, and then, it shot up really fast in the fourth quarter last year, and continue to shoot up in the first quarter, and until in June, when the government started to – aggressively coming to start managing the bubble by looking at the margin loans and crackdown the margin loans and then, sort of like trying to deflate the bubbles, and the index went down from 5,200 to 3,500 at the worst time. So, but if you look at the overall perspective is that, within 12 months, even based on not even today’s number, [indiscernible] something, but even the pace on the 3,500 floor, we could achieve a goal. We’re still looking at a market going up by 75%, and that is a record that we wish that we can have in other places, in the sort of like U.S. and so forth. Because despite that 30% dropped, the reality is that the market have gone up way too much, and we have to recognize that China is a complete different country than United States. They have different rules and regulations and then also is a more a planned economy centrally than just a completely free market in that states. So, whenever a market with because of all these speculation from consumers, who may not be sophisticated with the market, and that started going into the buying frenzy, and with a stock market going up 150% in the several months. It was totally appropriate and according to the Chinese government point of view that they need to do something about it. In fact, obviously the government has started the planning in April, and started looking into various mechanisms, to inflate this unsustainable bubble. So, they did it and the bubble burst fast, and then they drop 30% in a few weeks, and they thought that that drop is such a little bit also, too significant, and so they are also come right back, and actively manage it again, and so that’s what we are today. Now, it’s always going to be volatile, there’s always going to be some fluctuation here and there. But, we’ve been watching the Chinese government dealing with the global financial crisis, in 2007 and 2008, 2009 we’ve been watching to Chinese government, deal with the Asian financial crisis, in 1997 and 1998. And, so far, they’ve been doing pretty good job, in terms of managing – managing the market. And, if you looked at only two years or three years ago. The Chinese real estate bubble, was even worse than the stock market crash. And so, government came in, deflate a bubble, by putting in new rules in terms of how mortgage allowed or not allowed in certain cities and so forth. And so, they deflate a bubble and so far the real estate price, somewhat has been stabilized. So, we looked at the market in China and U.S, and from an East West point of view, we try not to judge whether this is the right thing or the wrong thing. We’re trying to make sure you understand it. And we clearly understand that looking at the trend and the duration in China, the government’s always pretty effective in terms of managing the situation despite the fact that there is always going to be some volatility here and there. But ultimately, it’s still going to be moving forward, I think positively. So we feel that by and large, I don’t think that this stock market so called crash is much of an issue in terms of the overall GDP. And, again, keep in mind is that, there wasn’t much of a crash. As a matter of fact, the market has gone up as of today from last year by 75%. And so for any kind of objective look of a stock market, that’s actually had pretty significant gains to the day. So one may question whether it should come down little bit more to make it more reasonable. So I feel that overall it should be okay. And then in terms of the effect to East West, very minimal, simply because we continue to focusing on the U.S. China investment trade, cross-border transaction and so forth. And we haven’t seen any kind of slowdown as of today in terms of let’s say Entertainment Company coming from China to United States, whether it’s a company coming to from China to United States to invest and so forth. We are continuing to see from agriculture industry or very others manufacturing or technology, healthcare and so forth. And this – so sort of the ongoing exchange back and forth in terms of investing and partnership. So we feel that that trend will continue and East West, in the long run, will continue to benefit from it.