Dominic Ng
Analyst · the Bank of America Merrill Lynch
In terms of our projection, we look at a few different scenario. One is what the market condition, the other one is East West balance sheet. If we look at what we've done for the last 2 or 3 years, particular on the residential mortgage origination, we have done extraordinary well because the market allow us to be able to book a lot of very low loan-to-value, very nice yield type of residential mortgages. But we got ourselves in a situation now that we actually have a pretty nice balance of residential mortgage. If you look at the residential mortgage balance today, as a percentage, it's at the level that we look at, is that if we continue the same volume of growth, it's not going to be conducive to our principle of having a well-diversified portfolio with different mix of different type of products. So within the East West situation, we want to not have this kind of like repeat our 2013 of residential mortgage growth anyway. Then you look at the market condition, I think, in general, last year, because of the rate environment, many banks who originate home mortgages were all doing very, very well. So with no exception. We just don't expect that the market will be as strong as it was in 2013. So we expect the market to slow down. We also, within our own balance sheet diversification and risk oversight purpose, we also do not want to see that much growth. And as a matter of fact, what we've done also is that we have also changed our product mix in the home mortgages area. In 2013, we offer 3 years fixed-rate, 5 years fixed-rate. So this year, we decided -- in fact, not only is that not an issue. Actually, in the middle of fourth quarter, we decided that in order to curtail some of the growth, we'll only offer 3 years fixed-rate. Now, but that's also for interest rate reason, because if you look at the likelihood of rate going up like by maybe by 2015 or something like that, it's now much higher because we've been having this almost 0 interest rate environment for the last 5 years. So we think it is about time that rate would eventually go up. So we decided that rather than -- like 3 years ago, when we offer 5 years fixed, that was a good move for residential mortgages because we pick up a nice yield, low LTV, and also, we don't expect that there's going to be that much of a likelihood of rate going up. But then moving forward in 2014 and '15 and '16, for us to offer a 5 years fixed rate now, we don't think that is very smart for interest rate -- sort of like asset liability management, so to speak. So in that regard, so we decided to go only a 3 years fixed, and I think that will definitely reduce some of the volume. So it's a combination of us offering products that may likely to reduce the volume and we already have a pretty full plate of residential mortgages and our expectation as a market will be slowing down. So all the combination we expected at residential mortgage growth will not be as strong. On the commercial real estate side. What we've seen is that for the last year, particularly, a lot of small community banks finally came out of MOU and C&D and many of them, the first marching order was to originate commercial real estate loans. And in order to be able to do more and in order to get the yield that they wanted to get the earnings that they need, many of them are doing fixed-rate. 5 years, 7 years, 10 years. Sometimes even 15 years fixed-rate. Again, we at East West Bank, with our loan growth, with our earnings, with our very efficient operation, we don't think that we need to take the next potential ticking time bomb, which is interest rate risk. So instead of going out there and compete aggressively, and also offer these long-term fixed-rate loans, which we'll regret 4 to 5 years from now, we've been holding off and continue to originate mainly adjustable rate mortgages. And if we do have a fixed-rate, we'll do interest rate swap with it. So with that, we also don't expect that we will have a very aggressive high growth in the commercial real estate. So the areas that we expect high growth will continue to be on the C&I and also in our international cross-border transaction, trade finance and areas like that. That's the area we think that we can take on more. These are long-term, profitable, sustainable relationships and when we book a good C&I loan today, 3 years from now, as the business continue grow, we automatically grow with it. We like that kind of business and we can afford to take on more and all of them adjustable anyway. So we're going to put most of our focus on C&I. So what we look at is that with pay off from the large share loans and so forth, net net, even if we have a very high growth in the C&I portfolio, chances are, it may come back down to about 10% on a net basis, without considering the MetroBank side. So that's what we come up with our projection.