John Wagner
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open
Thank you, Jayme, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start by discussing our financial results for the second quarter, provide a brief overview of our recent agreement to acquire PolicyFuel and conclude with guidance for the third quarter and our updated guidance for the full-year. We are very pleased to report strong second quarter 2021 results with performance above our guidance range for revenue, VMM and adjusted EBITDA. Our revenue for the quarter was $105.1 million, an increase of 34% year-over-year and building on last year’s strong growth in the comparable period. Revenue in our auto insurance vertical increased to $86.4 million, a growth rate of 34% year-over-year, which reflected a healthy demand in our core vertical from both carriers and agents through the period of COVID reopening in Q2. Revenue from our other insurance verticals, which include home, renters, life, health and commercial insurance increased to $18.7 million, a growth rate of 36% year-over-year and representing 18% of revenue. We continue to attract high intent more valuable consumers, which fueled a 34% increase in revenue per quote request year-over-year, while quote request remain flat at 6.8 million. Looking ahead to Q3, we anticipate some moderation in carrier demand for acquisition of new insurance consumers, but we believe we will maintain much of the improvement we have made in monetization. We expect revenue per quote request to moderate slightly in Q3 from Q2’s record levels, while continuing to grow modestly on a year-over-year basis. We also expect the volume of consumers coming to our marketplace to emerge as a significant driver of revenue with an expected mid-teens year-over-year growth rate in quote requests in Q3. This is consistent with our expectations expressed in prior remarks that we believe consumer volume and monetization will both contribute to our year-over-year growth in the second half of 2021. We delivered second quarter variable marketing margin or VMM, which we define as revenue less advertising expense, of $32.8 million, an increase of 40% year-over-year, which exceeded the high-end of our guidance range provided last quarter. As a percentage of revenue, second quarter VMM expanded to 31% up from 30% in Q2 of last year. Notably, consumer acquisition costs captured in cost per quote request were significantly higher this quarter, reflecting a more competitive online advertising landscape, but we are outpaced by growth in revenue per quote request resulting in our margin improvement this quarter. As we look forward, we expect consumer acquisition cost to be stable at current levels, which are elevated from comparable Q3 2020 levels. We expect that slight reductions in monetization coupled with current elevated consumer acquisition costs will put pressure on VMM growth and VMM as a percentage of revenue in Q3. Looking further ahead into Q4, we expect our VMM operating point to improve and to be largely consistent with Q4 of 2020. Given our expected strong growth within our health direct-to-consumer agency during the annual health open enrollment period and the higher VMM margin profile associated with that revenue stream. Turning to profitability. GAAP net loss improved to $1.9 million or a loss of $0.06 per share based on $28.9 million weighted average shares outstanding. This included $6.1 million in stock-based compensation. For the balance of the year, we expect stock-based compensation to be between $18 million and $19 million, including the impact of new grants in Q4 related to our announced acquisition. We delivered adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 million or 6.3% of revenue for the second quarter, which was above the high-end of our guidance range provided last quarter. This fuels record operating cash flow of $7.7 million and resulted in $54.5 million of cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet at the end of the quarter. As we look through the second half of the year, we've refined our operating plan to better support our health DTC agency in the second annual enrollment period since our acquisition of Crosspointe last September. As Jayme mentioned, we have accelerated our recruitment of new EverQuote health agents, increased the training and development time of our agents and strengthened our agent incentives. We are ensuring that our agents are fully onboarded and ready to advise consumers on policy choices when open enrollment begins in Q4. The addition of DTCA resources earlier than planned increases our confidence in our aggressive growth plans in Q4 for our health vertical, but it also increases our forecasted operating expenses in the second half of the year and consequently reduces our anticipated adjusted EBITDA. Given that our plans are to triple health DTC agency revenue in Q4 over the same period in 2020, we believe the additional expense is justified in establishing a strong foundation for this rapidly growing new distribution channel. As Jayme mentioned, on July 20, after the quarter ended, we were pleased to announce the expected acquisition of PolicyFuel. EverQuote agreed to pay approximately $16 million in cash at closing with additional potential consideration to be paid in EverQuote's stock contingent on the company achieving growth targets for policy-sales-as-a-service revenue. We expect the acquisition to close by the end of Q3 and plan to fund the acquisition using cash from our balance sheet. Looking ahead, we are excited about PolicyFuel's strong business model and anticipated future contributions. PolicyFuel reported trailing 12 months revenue through March 31, 2021 of approximately $10 million and is modestly profitable. We have reflected the impact of PolicyFuel in our guidance, including approximately $3 million of revenue in 2021. Turning to our outlook. As a result of our strong execution in Q2 and our confidence in the upcoming open enrollment period, we maintained our conviction in our full-year revenue and VMM guidance. However, we are lowering our guidance for full-year adjusted EBITDA to reflect incremental investment in our health DTC agency and temporarily muted VMM growth in Q3. For Q3, we expect revenue to be between $109 million and $111 million, a year-over-year increase of 22% at the midpoint. We expect variable marketing margin to be between $33 million and $34 million, a year-over-year increase of 14% at the midpoint and we expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $4.5 million and $5.5 million, a year-over-year decrease of 4% at the midpoint. For the full-year 2021, we expect revenue to be between $440 million and $446 million, a year-over-year increase of 28% at the midpoint and an increase from our prior guidance of between $434 million and $442 million. We expect variable marketing margin to be between $138 million and $141 million, a year-over-year increase of 28% at the midpoint and an increase from our prior guidance of between $136 million and $140 million and we expect adjusted EBITDA of between $23 million and $26 million, a year-over-year increase of 33% at the midpoint and a decrease from our prior guidance of between $26 million and $30 million. In summary, we delivered strong second quarter financial results and executed well against our plan for the first half of 2021. We remain confident in our ability to execute against the market opportunity as insurance shifts online. Jayme and I look forward to answering your questions.