Tom Durels
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, John and good morning everyone. On today's call, I will review our overall leasing activity in the third quarter. I'll provide a summary of our current and future space availabilities and discuss the timing of new lease commencements. Our third quarter results reflect our continued progress on our four key growth drivers, which are one, upside from signed leases not commenced of $14 million. Two, the mark-to-market on our expiring Manhattan office leases of $18 million. Three, lease up of developed vacant office space of $33 million and four, the mark-to-market and lease up of available retail space of $17 million. In total, we estimate these drivers will contribute approximately $82 million of NOI growth as of September 30, 2016 relative to our trailing 12 months cash NOI of $343 million. As a reminder, we had both the Macy's office lease and the Sephora retail lease at 111 West 33rd Street commence in the third quarter representing annualized revenue of $15 million exclusive of free rent. In the third quarter, we signed 51 new and renewal leases totaling approximately 349,000 square feet. This included approximately 264,000 square feet in our Manhattan office properties and 60,000 square feet in our greater New York metropolitan properties. I would like to mention three significant leases. At 111 West 33rd Street, we signed a three-floor 86,500 square foot lease with the Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research. And at the Empire State Building, we signed a two-floor 46,500 square foot lease with JCDecaux, the worldwide leader in outdoor advertising. And at 1359 Broadway, we signed a full floor 24,200 square foot lease with Sisense, a leader in data analytics. At quarter-end, our total portfolio was 87.9% occupied, which is up 130 basis points from the second quarter and including signed leases that have not yet commenced, the total portfolio leased percentage was up 90 basis points from the second quarter at 90.3% leased. And at our flagship property, the Empire State Building, we were up 140 basis points from the second quarter 2016 to 90.1% occupied and including our signed leases not yet commenced, our leased percentage was 91.5%, up 80 basis points from last quarter. Now as we discuss every quarter, we expect that our occupancy will fluctuate from quarter to quarter as we vacate and consolidate spaces in order to redevelop and re-lease those spaces at higher rents to better tenants. There is also a timing lag between the move-outs of existing tenants and when we complete our work and before new leases commence. As we execute our strategy, we unlock the embedded growth within our portfolio and drive significant increases in rental rates and future cash flows. As a result of our redevelopment strategy, we continue to capture strong rental growth spreads. During the third quarter, rental rates on new and renewal leases across our portfolio were 30.2% higher on a cash basis compared to prior escalated rents and at our Manhattan office properties, we signed new leases at rent spreads of 59.3%. In our total portfolio as of September 30, we have 1.229 million square feet of vacancy against which we have 244,000 square feet of signed leases not commenced for a net total of 985,000 square feet of unleased space, which is comprised of Manhattan office vacancy of 794,000 square feet, retail vacancy of 83,000 square feet, and greater New York metropolitan office vacancy of 108,000 square feet. Of the 794,000 square feet of unleased Manhattan office space, approximately 549,000 square feet is consolidated and redeveloped space that includes prebuilts and white-boxed space. Approximately 72,000 square feet is being held off market until it can be consolidated for future redevelopment, and the balance of our vacant space is being planned for redevelopment. We expect to vacate 159,000 square feet in our Manhattan office portfolio by year-end. The in-place fully escalated rent on this space is just $47.90 per square foot. These anticipated move-outs include 92,000 square feet that will be vacated by Aeropostale, who recently rejected their lease at 111 West 33rd Street as part of their bankruptcy process. Aero's six floors had been leased at an average fully escalated rent of only $45.70 per square foot. Now Aeropostale occupies desirable full tower floors at 111 West 33rd Street where ESRT recently relocated its headquarters and where we are underway with a lobby renovation by, a design by STUDIOS Architecture. One of Aero's floors of 10,500 square feet was already leased to Michael J. Fox Foundation as part of an earlier negotiation at higher rents. We will gut the remaining floors immediately to prepare them for new tenants. We look forward to bringing them to market in early 2017 and expect to achieve rents well above what Aeropostale has been paying. As a reminder, as of September 30, we have signed leases that have not yet commenced of 244,000 square feet, all of which are expected to commence by the end of early 2018 and will add nearly $14 million in NOI growth. Returning to our office availabilities, we have available nine full floors totaling 211,000 square feet throughout our Manhattan portfolio including one floor at the Empire State Building, three floors at 250 West 57th Street where we are underway with a new building lobby, storefronts, and elevator cabs. You can already see part of the new storefronts at 250 and they look great. Two floors at 111 West 33rd Street where we are also underway with a new lobby, new 33rd Street entrance, and new elevator cabs and two floors at 1400 Broadway and one at One Grand Central Place. Turning to our retail business, we signed six leases in the quarter for 24,400 square feet in total. Rental rates on both new and renewal leases were 19% lower than prior fully escalated rents. Two comments to make on this number. First, one of the spaces was a 14,000 square foot space at 1359 Broadway leased to Wolfgang's Steakhouse at a lower rent with the intention of bringing a needed amenity in the form of a quality restaurant to our office properties in Times Square South. Second, since nearly two-thirds of the retail space leased during the quarter was vacant, we will have $460,000 in NOI growth after free rent from the retail leases signed during the third quarter. In addition to Wolfgang's, we signed Chopt at Empire State Building and Sweetcatch Poke Bar at 501 Seventh Avenue. We believe that the addition of these quality food concepts is a long term investment that supports the growth in office employees and helps attract new office tenants to our properties. Further, following the close of the third quarter, we signed a 2,600 square foot retail lease with the food purveyor [Making Kaiser] on which we achieved a mark-to-market spread of 87.2% over the prior fully escalated rent and we signed a 3,200 square foot retail renewal lease with Sprint at a mark-to-market spread of 25%. These two retail leases alone will add another $1.1 million in NOI growth after free rent. Within our larger retail portfolio, we are currently marketing at 112 West 34th Street, approximately 40,000 square feet including 8,000 square feet at street level and directly opposite Macy's flagship store. We had our first broker event just last week to show the newly white-boxed space, which looks fantastic with 20-foot high ceilings and great 34th Street frontage looking directly at Macy's entrance and we will also be showing the space to retail brokers during the upcoming New York ICSC in December, but realistically, we don't expect to see attention by retailers sooner than early 2017 following the 2016 holiday selling season. We feel very good about our leasing pipeline and I am very confident in our team's ability to execute and deliver on our four key growth drivers. Overall, we continue to see steady demand for our properties, which offer prospective tenants an attractive combination of location and amenities at a value price point. We continue to lease up our vacant space and execute on our proven strategy to consolidate, vacate, and deliver redeveloped space in order to lease to new better credit tenants at higher rents, increase NOI, and improve shareholder value. Now I'm going to turn the call over to David Karp. David?