Mark Casale
Analyst · Dowling & Partners. Please, go ahead.
Yes, good question. Again, we don't jerk around our cumulative loss assumption. So, again, we're -- we've always been -- and, obviously, now with the engine, it's much more loan levels specific. But it's always in that kind of 2% to 3% range. It's driven clearly a little bit with our HPA view. I would say, when pricing kind of troughed 12, 15 months ago, we just -- I look at it more from the returns, right? So we kind of in that 12 to 15%-ish range. It was pretty much at the lower end of the range. And you can stretch to get it to that level given CRT and leverage, and all those sort of things, right? You can't hide from the raw pricing. So when pricing dips into the 2s, which we saw on one large lender bid that we clearly didn't win, you have to have pretty aggressive assumptions. I'm not even sure 1% gets you there. So you have to -- it's just the cost of capital alone Jeff, and the cost to originate. So again, we felt that's why you saw our share kind of gets so low in that third. And I think it was the fourth quarter and first quarter again, 12 15 months ago. So -- and we said it, we thought it was too low. And again, just given the current environment so maybe just the uncertainty in the environment last year, kind of sparked folks to move pricing up. One large MI clearly had backed out of the market. And they're -- we're a bellwether on one side, they were a bellwether on the other. And they're backing out really opened up room for others, to kind of increase. So, I think it's been positive, right? And again, at the end of the day we need to have the balance sheet to pay claims and make sure we have the flexibility, whether it's PMIERs or at the state level and just to chase it down like that, it's just not in the best interest longer term in the industry to be quite honest. So that's -- I'm very -- I think we're encouraged to see where the pricing is. And again, like I said earlier on 10 basis points, the pricing -- the absolute pricing that we're giving to the borrower today, we think it's pretty cost effective, especially when you think about a 6% mortgage rate. So, we'll see if it can continue. But I would say, we're definitely encouraged to where the pricing levels are in the industry today.