Aristides Pittas
Analyst · Maxim Group
Thank you, Tasos. Let's now turn to Slide 11. We are very excited about the opportunity to spin-off the drybulk fleet into separate companies. Over the course of the last 20 years that included our entrance into the public markets as a diversified drybulk and container company, navigating successfully within one of the worst financial crisis in our history with a strong passion for ship operations and using a time-tested approach of focusing on cost control and lower-risk investments. We feel we have adapted well to the changing times and have grown our fleet by sitting the right opportunities without having to resolve to dilutive equity issuances other than a couple of rights issues to existing shareholders, no of course risking bankruptcy as several others. Now with two separate entities we are hopefully looking forward to the next success for our Company. Let's go to Slide 12; as stated in my introduction we are spinning off our six drybulk vessels into a separate company. The fleet will include the following vessels of our current fleet; three newbuildings consisting of two Kamsarmaxes and one Ultramax built according to our specifications. And three high quality Japanese-built Panamaxes all post-2000 built with an average fleet age just under 9 years. The net asset value of the vessels to be spun-off we calculate at about $35 million. Euroseas will continue with the current containership fleet of 11 vessels and will be the only public feeder containership focused company. We believe that the feeder sector is facing favorable demand/supply balance just as the drybulk sector is. The mechanics of the spin-off will be as follows: shares of the new entity will be distributed to Euroseas shareholders of record date for the spin-off expected to be May 23, 2018. The actual distribution is expected to happen on or about May 30, 2018. Please turn to Slide 14 for a snapshot of the fleets as of today. The drybulk fleet will comprise of six drybulk vessels with a cargo carrying capacity of 452,000 deadweight and a fleet average age of 8.9 years. After the sale of Monica P which was kept within Euroseas will be affected by June 30. Euroseas will have 11 container vessels with a total cargo capacity of 25,483 TEUs, and an average of just below 20 years. Turning to Slide 16 for highlights on the drybulk market. The BDI was at 1,230 points on January 2 and that ended at 1,055 on March 29; having reached a peak of 1,395 on January 9. Currently the BDI stands at 1,384 points as of May 4, 2018. As of March 1, 2018, the BDI composition is revised as follows: 40% Capesize, 30% Panamax and 30% Supramax. It will no longer include the Handysize time charter average; previously the Index was based equally on the four sizes. Daily Cape spot rates averaged $12,560 per day in Q1, Panamax spot rates averaged $11,560 and Supramax-58 spot rates averaged $12,700 per day. They closed the quarter at significantly lower at $7,375 for Cape's, $10,863 for Panamax, and $ 13,563 for Supra's. And currently they stand having increased again for Cape's at $18,308 but still lower for Panamax at $10,175, and $11,543 for Supramaxes-Tess 58 as of May 4. One-year time charter rates increased across all sizes: Capes from $17,000 approximately in Q4 to $18,850 for Q1 '18 average, Panamaxes from $12,150 per day in Q4 average to $13,350 per day, the Q1 '18 average. Supramaxes also increased from $10,885 per day in the Q4 '17 average to $12,385 per day, the Q1 '18 average. As of May 4, 2018, time charter rates stood at $20,750 per day for Cape's, the highest for a long time; $13,000 per day for Panamaxes, and $12,500 per day for Supramaxes. Secondhand five-year old vessel prices were flat during Q1. Newbuilding prices from China are in the region of $26 million to $24 million for Kamsarmax and Ultramax respectively. The fleet during this year has grown by nearly 1% year-to-date. Please turn to Slide 17 where you can review the drybulk profile and the order book delivery schedule. The delivery schedule for drybulk vessels in 2018 stood at 4.1% of the fleet at the beginning of the year. However, slippage and cancellations continued to occur and the actual number of deliveries in 2018 will be less than originally predicted. Overall, deliveries in 2018 should be the lowest of the last 10 years. The actual fleet could grow less than 2% in this year. Turning to Slide 18; the IMF projected GDP growth in 2018 is expected to be 3.9%, inline with the previous quarter estimate. China is expected by IMF to grow by a healthy 6.6%, and India is projected to grow by 7.4%, both in line with the previous quarter. The U.S. is now projected to grow by 2.9%, up by 0.2% from the previous quarter. Also Brazil is expected to have 2.3% growth in '18, up 0.4% from the previous quarter. And Russia is expected to grow by 1.7% which is inline with the previous quarter. Despite the solid GDP growth expected, according to classes [ph], the drybulk sector is now projected to grow by 2.7%, down from 2.8% from the previous quarter and much lower than the 3.8% in 2017; this is mainly due to a dynamic [indiscernible] in China which however may surprise either way. Please turn to Slide 19 where we summarize our outlook on bulkers. The market in 2017 was characterized by robust demand and a depleting orderbook. One-year time charter earnings averaged 70% higher than 2016 but still well below historical average levels. For 2018 and 2019, we expect further improvements in the demand/supply balance. Barring any significant slow-down in Chinese iron ore and coal imports we should therefore see a stronger market. China as I said, remained the main source of drybulk trade growth. Iron ore imports, the largest contributor of drybulk trade growth have been strong but not as expected due to weather disruptions in Brazil; however, we expect good growth again in the second half of 2018. Similar trends are witnessed in coal imports as local coal mines have been shut down due to inefficiencies and pollution concerns. However, the reversal of this trend could negatively affect the very positive outlook. Just recently, the Chinese government announced restrictions for coal imports in five Southern and Eastern Chinese ports with unknown duration aiming to boost local coal prices and production. These policies are contradicting with Beijing's effort to curb pollution as local coal is of lower quality and it's production very polluting. Let's now turn to Slide 20 to review our drybulk employment schedule in the classical form. As you can see our drybulk average for 2018 stands at about 57% giving us significant capacity to benefit from a rising market. Having secured a two Kamsarmaxes till mid-2020 on profitable charters, we are pursuing a strategy of employing the remaining four of our vessels on short-term contracts or indexed contracts and expectation of further improvements in the market. Let's now move to Slide 21 to see our drybulk vessel debt repayment profile and cash flow breakeven. This slide shows on the right hand side the drybulk cash flow breakeven budget estimated over the next 12 months, and from the left side scheduled debt repayments including the scheduled balloon repayments over the next five years. You will notice in the graph that in 2018 the drybulk fleet has $2.8 million of balloon repayments, whilst in 2019 it will be $8 million more. Typically, and so far we have refinanced the biggest part of our balloon repayments as they come due; and we expect to continue to do so. Expressed in dollars per vessel per day, loan repayments over the next 12 months amount to about $3,300 per vessel per day contribution for the cash flow breakeven. You can see those numbers in the table on the right part of the side. If we make assumptions for the rest of the operating items as those operating expense, general and administrative expense, interest and drydock expenses on the progressive but debt basis. EuroDry has a breakeven level of around $10,8000 per day per vessel over the next 12 months without any balloon payments. Let's move to Slide 22; the left side of this slide shows the evolution of time charter rates of Panamax drybulk ships since 2001. While drybulk vessel rates have bounced back from their all-time lows in 2016, but we are still below historical average. The right hand side of the slide shows vessel values in relation to historical prices. Drybulk prices have moved above all-time low values as we've established at the beginning of 2016 but they are also still lower than historical average. Drybulk fundamentals today remain favorable for the foreseeable future provided of course that the industry does not shoot itself again in the foot by starting to order new ships which would create worries for 2020 onwards. Please turn to Slide 24 for highlights on the containership market. Time charter rates in Q1 for feeder and intermediate size vessels ranging from 1,000 to 5,000 TEUs have all risen about 15% to 20% on average. The 1,700 TEU geared vessel rose from an average of $8,300 a day in Q4 to $9,680 in Q1 and currently stands at $10,500 per day. The 2,500 TEU geared vessel rose from an average of $8,750 in Q4 to $9,820 in Q1 and currently stands at $10,500 a day. Average secondhand prices for older than 15-years old vessels rose circa 40% on average in Q1, however, for younger vessels of about 10-years old, the rises were slightly smaller as the older vessels were priced at around their scrap price in the previous quarter. Newbuilding prices were stable with rising trends. The rises are in the region of $500,000 per vessels sub-5000 TEU. But the idle fleet was low at 350,000 TEU as of mid-April. Scrapping was very slow in Q1, only about 25,000 TEUs were scrapped in Q1, amidst very firm scrap prices but in anticipation of a better market, owners avoided scrapping. The fleet grew by about 2% year-to-date without accounting for idle vessels reactivation. Slide 25 is a repeat of Slide 18 but we wanted to provide the IMF projections again for regional reference as we've done to the bottom of the page for the containerized trade covered into flagships [ph]. This is projected to grow by 5% which is the same as the previous quarter in 2018, and by about 4.8% in 2019. These are very healthy rates, even though they are lower than the 5.5% we witnessed in 2017. Containers have moved away from their all-time lows during the last two quarters but are still below the historical averages. We believe the current valuations still does not reflect the long-term revenue capacity of the vessels and would expect a further rise. Let's turn now to Slide 31; we believe the both shipping sectors are at an attractive point. The orderbook for both sectors is minimal and that one of the lowest levels of the last 15-years and with the world economies in a synchronized recovery, this should positively influence demand for shipping. Our focus is now to maximize shareholder value to increase stock attractiveness and move valuation closer to NAV while we address the challenges that remain including market capitalization, trade volume and fleet size. I now want to hand the call back to the operator to answer any questions that you may have.