Earnings Labs

Energy Recovery, Inc. (ERII)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Sun, Nov 7, 2021

$10.67

-3.78%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to Energy Recovery third quarter 2021 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions]. Please note, this conference is being recorded. Also please note, the company's prepared remarks can be found on the company's website, ir.energyrecovery.com 15 minutes after the hour. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Jim Siccardi, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Jim Siccardi

Analyst

Good afternoon everyone. And welcome to Energy Recovery's 2021 third quarter conference call. My name is Jim Siccardi, Vice President of Investor Relations at Energy Recovery. I am here today with our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bob Mao and our Chief Financial Officer, Joshua Ballard. During today's call, we may make projections and other forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor provisions contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. These statements may discuss our business, economic and market outlook,, growth expectations, new products and their performance, cost structure and business strategy. Forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to us and on management's beliefs, assumptions, estimates or projections. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors. We refer you to documents the company files from time to time with the SEC, specifically the company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. These documents identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements. All statements made during this call are made only as of today, November 4, 2021 and the company expressly disclaims any intent or obligation to update any forward- looking statements made during this call to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, unless otherwise required by law. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bob Mao. Bob, the floor is yours.

Bob Mao

Analyst · Hana Road Capital. Please proceed with your question

Thank you Jim and thank you everyone for joining us. Our approach today will differ from recent quarters. I will discuss the opportunities we see before us in more detail and our strategies to achieve our revenue targets in three of our industries, Desalination, Industrial Wastewater and Refrigeration. I will also provide updated expectations on the VorTeq. Josh will then discuss our results, guidance for the next two years as well as our financial targets over the next five years. As usual, we will start with our water businesses, but I would like to preface the discussion with some context. We often speak about the growing water supply gap globally. The world is already experiencing these effects of this phenomenon and the supply gap is expected to grow to 40%, or 2,700 trillion cubic meters, by 2030. A 40% gap and 2,700 trillion for that matter is almost impossible to wrap your head around. It's an annual equivalent to nearly three-quarters of the water in the Mediterranean Sea or over one trillion Olympic sized swimming pools. Water scarcity related to this gap is not felt evenly across the world. Areas of greatest water need include the Middle East and North Africa and we continue to see strong desalination demand as well as Southern Africa, Asia, the Western United States and the western coast of South America. Let's take just two coastal countries in Asia who are experiencing water stress as example, China and India. China has 21% of the world's population, but has only 6% of the world's freshwater and India accounts for 18% of population with only 4% of the world's freshwater. Both countries are experiencing high water stress and begin to invest proactively to address it. The water gap must be bridged and there are limited ways to…

Joshua Ballard

Analyst · Hana Road Capital. Please proceed with your question

Thank you Bob. I will start with this quarter's results. As expected, our barbell shaped revenue continued to play out this year with revenue of $21 million during the third quarter, relatively flat against last quarter but more than $6 million lower than the same quarter a year ago. And we told you this would occur. I have mentioned previously that comparing our year-on-year quarterly revenue results does not point to future trends. This quarter's year-on-year decrease is simply due to a shift in the timing of mega project shipments compared to last year. Barring any unforeseen delays due to the ongoing supply chain crisis, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to exceed $30 million, which would be our strongest quarter ever and possibly allow us to exceed our roughly 10% guidance in desalination revenue. We are on track to achieve at least a 68% margin year- to-date. In short, the year remains strong, as expected. As we look to 2022, we still expect to achieve roughly $127 million in desalination revenue, in line with the guidance Bob has been giving since this time last year. In addition, we anticipate industrial wastewater contributing as much as $3 million in revenue, about three times what we expect in 2021, for total water revenue of approximately $130 million. We should deliver this revenue at between 66% to 68% gross margins next year. We are seeing some potential weakness in margin as we deal with some labor inflation, an increased sales mix of lower margin non-PX products and tariffs. However, we are still targeting the upper end of this range and will update you throughout next year. While we have announced our first PX G1300 commercial order and expect others in 2022, we are not currently providing guidance at this nascent stage. We…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question is from Wally Walker with Hana Road Capital. Please proceed with your question.

Wally Walker

Analyst · Hana Road Capital. Please proceed with your question

Yes. Thanks for taking my question and thanks for also giving aggressive guidelines for future revenue with a roadmap on how you going to get there. That's very helpful and much appreciated. It wasn't that long ago you guys were talking about commercializing your wastewater business for the first time we heard about. And then partnering with DuPont who, best I can tell, became a real good advocate for your PX products. As now you are looking it another huge TAM with your refrigeration, you anticipate another partnership with other large household name that will help you educate the public as you stated?

Bob Mao

Analyst · Hana Road Capital. Please proceed with your question

Wally, thank you. This is Bob. Yes, as you said, this is a large industry with many players. We are in discussions with potential partners at both the contactors level and OEM level. And we have a funnel of potential partners in discussions. And we are excited about this new market.

Wally Walker

Analyst · Hana Road Capital. Please proceed with your question

Yes. And Bob, thank you. Anything you can add to just the recent announcement about your first installation in California?

Bob Mao

Analyst · Hana Road Capital. Please proceed with your question

Okay. As I said in my remarks as well as Josh's that the switch came out of HFC, there is no choice. We have the same results. But switching to natural refrigerants, particularly the most obvious best on CO2 for lots of considerations is painful in that it burns more electricity. And here comes out PX to save the day. And that's why we are not surprised that the most enthusiastic response we get from the market place is the end customers as this first contract shows.

Wally Walker

Analyst · Hana Road Capital. Please proceed with your question

Thank you. Continued good luck.

Bob Mao

Analyst · Hana Road Capital. Please proceed with your question

Thank you.

Joshua Ballard

Analyst · Hana Road Capital. Please proceed with your question

Thanks Wally.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our next question is from Paul Sonz with Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Paul Sonz

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

Hi. I have one housekeeping question and then two questions to go to through the new refrigeration business. The housekeeping question is, after the stock buybacks, could you tell me what the current fully diluted share count is including our issues and options.

Joshua Ballard

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

We roughly repurchase accumulatively just shy of, this is Josh by the way, a million shares. And so throughout the year, we are still in the high, I don't have the exact number in front of me, but we are probably around 58 million shares, give or take.

Paul Sonz

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

Good. And the second part on the CO 2 system. Obviously, before the contractors and the OEMs get involved, the chain itself, the grocery store chains must see the benefit of that product. And so what I wondered is, is two things. One is, how long do you think it will take before a grocery store management feels comfortable in changing the refrigeration system? And the second part of that question is, once they decide that, yes, they want to go ahead with this, does it require them to put in new totally change out their refrigeration system or is this something that they can be sort of post buy it and can you just we rehab the system that they have by bolting your system, putting your system on to their current refrigeration system?

Bob Mao

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

Well, first of all, I will answer it this way. To switch from HFC to CO2, there is major changes because you are dealing with a much higher pressure. And that is why the CapEx and OpEx, both have impacts, okay. And these higher pressures drops, burns more energy and that's where our PX saving the energy can reduce that pain. But because of regulations which is fine as they are trying to save the earth from further warming, acceleration of warming. And so switching to natural refrigerants and most prominently CO2 is not a choice. It's something that must be done. And it is being done, particularly in Europe and now we think with the new EPA mandates will also accelerate in the U.S. So for those systems that's already switched over to CO2, we can just bolt-on our system to existing ones. However that is not what we call PX eccentric. In other words, when our system is designed from the beginning, the fact that we save energy we should impact the other parts of the refrigeration system. For example, we should not need as big volume of compressors. We are impacting the evaporation stage and we are impacting their valve stage. So a PC centric system, as we just said, will render both CapEx and OpEx savings for the end user. And also, even in this first contract, we are talking with the contractors because it is the contractors who design the system for the end user. Of course, at the end of the day we save money for the en user.

Paul Sonz

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

And how long do you think it would take up? Once you put a demonstration project in for a chain how long do you think it takes before management feels comfortable in going ahead with this, with your product and this change?

Bob Mao

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

First of all, the first contract we have, we just mentioned, it is a commercial contract. So for that one, the management already decided to go forward.

Paul Sonz

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

I see. I thought it was a demonstration project.

Bob Mao

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

No. It is a commercial contract.

Paul Sonz

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

Okay.

Bob Mao

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

But we are going to accumulate solid data and the management agrees with us that we will present these data to the industry. And we expect the pace to accelerate as more end users, contractors realize the savings. And so it is a commercial contract. It is not a demonstration. It is not a beta test.

Paul Sonz

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

Great. All right. Thank you very much.

Joshua Ballard

Analyst · Sonz Partners. Please proceed with your question

Thanks Paul. Paul, we have got a quick update on the shares. As of the end of October with the share buyback, we have 58.8 million fully diluted shares in September and round about 56.7 million currently, give or take. Hope that's helpful.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Robert Smith with Center for Performance Investing. Please proceed with your question.

Robert Smith

Analyst · Center for Performance Investing. Please proceed with your question

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Bob, is it still your intention to enter new areas every two years with a new product? So that would imply through 2026, two additional areas?

Bob Mao

Analyst · Center for Performance Investing. Please proceed with your question

Robert, what we said is not that we enter new areas every two years, okay. Actually of course we hope we enter new areas quite regularly quite often. What we have said is that we are bringing a financial discipline to our new development efforts which is, I repeat, that we start a project we must clear all technical hurdles within the first 12 months of release and then within the next 12 months we must commercialize that and within the third 12 months we must at least [indiscernible]. And also we said we would only embark on projects that can gain at least 50% of gross margin, protest our brand equity as being a high margin business.

Robert Smith

Analyst · Center for Performance Investing. Please proceed with your question

Thanks for the clarification.

Bob Mao

Analyst · Center for Performance Investing. Please proceed with your question

Look, we have commercialized the industrial wastewater in fact in about six months after we started the project. And this refrigeration we started about March, April the year before, which means we are well ahead of the March, April 2022 timeline for commercialization. We have this commercialized.

Robert Smith

Analyst · Center for Performance Investing. Please proceed with your question

But again, in projecting, call it, to 2026, there's no accounting for potential new product development?

Bob Mao

Analyst · Center for Performance Investing. Please proceed with your question

No. Josh has specifically mentioned today, we are talking about desalination, we are talking about industrial wastewater and we are talking about the refrigeration only.

Robert Smith

Analyst · Center for Performance Investing. Please proceed with your question

Thank you again.

Bob Mao

Analyst · Center for Performance Investing. Please proceed with your question

Thank you Robert.

Operator

Operator

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session and I will now turn the call the call over to Jim Siccardi for closing remarks.

Jim Siccardi

Analyst

Thank you everyone for joining us today. Please have a good evening.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you.