Carl Mellander
Analyst · Natixis. Please go ahead. Your line is open
Thank you, Börje. Then let’s have a look at gross margin development over time since Q1 last year then and as we expected than the gross margin is down sequentially, here, of course, Q1 is typically a stronger when it come to software sales. But if we compare a year-over-year instead then, the drop is quite significant and it has to do with the things that Börje has talked about already namely, a drop in software sales in networks, but also the margin development in the IT and cloud business. We can say that Q2 last year is a hard comparison because we had some significant software sales in that quarter. IPR stands for around 200 million Swedish Kroner of this decrease and of course, deeply unsatisfied with this level of gross margin. And that is really why we are putting the strategy that we held on in place and we will of course now, as we will talk about accelerate the actions both through invest in technology leadership which will also restore leadership position and its impact to the gross margin positively while at the same time taking cost out of the business and increasing our efficiency then. If we move on to the operating income bridge, we see that we came from a level last Q2 2016 and of an operating margin of 7% and the number of factors explain then the drop down to the 1% we are showing today excluding restructuring. First of all there is an impact of hedging. This is really a move between the lines in the P&L while the impact of revaluations and realizations of hedges were previously an operating item, it’s now recorded in the financial nets. Then, Börje has been mentioning already that SEK1 billion impact between the quarters of capitalized R&D and we will come back a little bit more to the explanation of that. Then sales drop also contributed to the negative developments. But of course, gross margin is the largest piece where both networks and IT and cloud contributed to a reduced gross margin as just discussed before. R&D is increasing somewhat partly in line with the strategy, but there is also an FX component there while SG&A is decreasing in this comparison. This is good of course, but far from enough and that’s why we are talking about our cost saving effort which we will come back to in a minute as well. If we drill down into operating expenses on the next slide here, we can see that our total OpEx in the quarter was SEK14.8 billion. And here again I must point out that large impact from the changed amount of capitalized R&D standing for SEK1.1 billion of the year-over-year comparison here. And I should say, by the way, that that’s of course has a zero cash impact. SG&A reduced, as mentioned, R&D somewhat increased with the investments we are doing mainly in the networks area then and I think now it’s time to drill a little bit more into the cost savings to address this picture of costs. So if we turn to the next one please, in the strategy we lay down then around three months ago, of course cost reduction was an very important piece as well and now we are today quantifying the cost reductions that we talk about, it’s SEK10 billion at least. If we look at the composition of this cost reduction and we say that 50% has to do with the service delivery organization. And please not here, it’s not about following sales decline, this is or adjusting to business volume, this is pure efficiency. So taking out costs of the machinery and the other 50% then relates to common costs. So of course, general and administration, but also pieces of the common platform of the company being for example, IT, real estate, et cetera where we still have potential to take out more costs and as any company, we have to be more efficient there also so that we can manage the R&D investments that we are undertaking. And how to look at this is to compare the SEK10 billion then with the current runrate meaning an annualized Q2 2017. Also important to note that this is not all, when we say at least SEK10 billion, this is the new communication but of course, we have ongoing programs as well. For example, the supply reductions that we announced much earlier where we are closing some sites, manufacturing sites. Rightsizing due to changes in business volume is of course in addition to this. And, if and when we pursue strategic opportunities, exit the business, divest some part of the business and similar that would also come on top of the SEK10 billion that we talk about here. You see the split by cost item and the G&A portion is around SEK3 billion than of this and cost of sales would be impacted by SEK7 billion and it impacts all the segments. Worthwhile also to point out that the restructuring charge range that we have talked about before, the SEK6 billion to SEK8 billion is valid, but we see that we will end up in the higher end of that range during 2017. And when it comes to 2018, restructuring charges we have to – we will come back to that and communicate more later. Next topic is on change in cash. So, the operating cash flow was zero in the quarter. So the losses were compensated by a slight improvement in the working capital side which is a good sign. And then just two items to point out, one is the repayment of the 500 million euro Eurobond, which happened in the end of June as per plan, and the other one is the dividend payment of SEK3.3 billion that happened in the quarter. So, the overall gross cash change is negative 11.3 and net cash decreased by SEK4.3 billion in the quarter. Next topic then, a couple of things that we talk about in the report. I just like to elaborate a little bit more. Those are the project risks and also the fact that we are reducing capitalization. Going first into the project risks and we have now come deeper in the analysis following now the focused strategy that we have and we have identified some increased risks, also given the current market conditions. So this has to do with ongoing projects and ongoing customer commitments. We estimate today that the impact of these risks might be SEK3 billion to SEK5 billion on our operating income. And this will then play out over the coming twelve months and this is with current visibility of course. We have a global and complex business with projects, but this is all we see now in terms of additional risks. And I think worth noting also that around 30% is estimated to have an impact on cash and the remaining 70% will not. And what risks are we talking about, it could be payment risks in some parts of the world with customers, certain challenging projects, but also following strategic direction and a more focused strategy there are possible costs related to taking strategic action and prioritizing, business transformation cost for example, to exit contracts and similar. Then moving on to the second topic here. As you have read in the report, we are talking about reducing our capitalization of certain items and this is driven by some shifts both in technology portfolios, but also ways of working. So we are reducing now in the quarter and going forward as well the capitalization of certain platform developments, costs and also the way we have been capitalizing development work in connection with software releases and finally, also certain hardware costs. And this is totally non-cash in nature. I should point that out, but the results then in the P&L from now on in the second half is estimated to SEK2.9 billion and this can be compared then with the positive effect second half last year SEK1.3 billion of this dimensions here. There is more background in the PowerPoint, but I will skip that for now for time reasons, but feel free to start in the next picture in the PowerPoint as well for more detail. Instead, I’d like to go into the planning assumptions that we talk about in the report going forward and first of all, to reiterate what Börje already said that we are adjusting our estimate for the market development for RAN equipment in US dollars done and we aligned it to the external estimates as well on the high single-digits percentage for the rest of the year. We have earlier talked about managed services and a row focus which could mean a top-line reduction of up to 10. We reiterate that here. We have talked about the cost reductions already. We have also mentioned the increase in R&D expenses and that the capitalization will have a net impact on operating income of minus SEK2.9 billion in the second half that restructuring remains between SEK6 billion to SEK8 billion although in the higher end of that range and finally then that risk in certain projects are estimated to have an impact of SEK3 billion to SEK5 billion. And then a couple of other Ericsson related items, managed services contract in North America, which we have mentioned several quarters now, we reiterate that. So it’s not forgotten. And that the business mix and overall trends that we see from 2016 will prevail into 2017 as well. All of this is of course based on the visibility we have today and current FX rates. Finally, before handing over to our CEO again, just looking at the cash flow impact of the various items that we have talked about now in the report. First of all, of course, we still have restructuring charges from the 2016 efforts and there is a spillover in cash impact of that of SEK3 billion during this year. New restructuring charges we estimate to have a cash impact in 2017 of 50% of this SEK6 billion to SEK8 billion and the remainder to be taken out – paid out in cash during 2018. The provisions and customer project adjustments that we communicated in the Q1 report was as mentioned then also have an – a cash impact of SEK5.8 billion and that will play out over several years. What we are now talking about, the SEK3 billion to SEK5 billion in additional risks with a cash impact of 30% will also then happen over several years to come. Finally, the restructuring charges to 2018 we will communicate later. Thank you so much and I hand back to Börje.
Börje Ekholm: Thank you, Carl. So just to wrap up this call or the presentation part of this call, we have put a plan in place, our focus strategy, which we developed in light of a challenging market and tough environment to combat that, but to build a stronger Ericsson that can deliver satisfactory returns long-term. It’s built upon a, call it, product and technology leadership position, which of course requires us to invest in R&D which we are doing in network, but it also to establish or reestablish profitability we need to turnaround IT and cloud, a work that is ongoing and we need to turnaround our managed services. What we have done during the second quarter is of course we detailed our plans, so underlying the focus strategy, we are now clarified that our cost target is to reduce our cost by more than SEK10 billion during the coming 12 months. We see very strong commitment across our organization, but more importantly, we have gotten a very positive response from our customers and they see our effort to strengthen our product portfolio as something very positive. And so, we believe we are still underway to our target of doubling our operating margin from 2016 beyond 2018. With that, back to you Mr. Nyquist.