Christian Milau
Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead
Great. Thanks, Pete. And looking at slide number eight, just want to run through the operations and a little bit of a look back and a little bit of a look forward in 2021. So, looking at Mexico and California first, Los Filos and Mesquite are, as Pete said, in an investment phase here, particularly during the first half of this year. Los Filos, we’re opening up the Guadalupe open pit. We’re also ready to start the Bermejal underground, once the social collaboration agreement is signed with the community, which I’ll comment on in just a second here. We restarted the Los Filos mine in December, and reported about 13,000 ounces of gold last year and is on track to be ramped up to full production here as we speak. So, pleased to see that back and operating. As we said last year, on our last conference call, we’ve been working on an updated social collaboration agreement with the local leadership of the Carizalillo community, and their key areas are sticking points basically were around employment and contracts for this future growth and the operation, particularly around Bermejal. So, we’ve agreed those clauses around employment and sharing between the various communities and ultimately contracts, and awarding certain contracts or tendering into the local community. So, we’re pleased that we were able to come to a resolution on those. We’re still working on the final dispute resolution mechanism in the contract, and hopefully we’ll have that resolved during the next few weeks. But, we’re getting very close. We’ve made progress, since last time we spoke to you when Ross and I were on the call a few weeks ago here. So, good progress being made, and we plan to see that finished here in the near-term and get back to normal business in Los Filos, and get the mine expanded. At Mesquite, some big heavy stripping period during the first half of this year, as Pete sort of alluded to. The Brownie pit is being stripped. There’s very little new ore going to the pads during this period. So, we are residual leaching and adding sort of some supplemental ore to the pads. We’re also spending about $9 million this year on exploration at Mesquite. It’s been an outstanding performer over the last couple of years and has been a key area of focus to continue to extend the mine life. Like I said earlier, it’s a good job of increasing resources and reserves. And we want to just keep doing that this year as well. So, opening up the new area of Brownie, looking to expand the resources and reserves, and investments to mine, and we’ve also leased a new fleet from Caterpillar because we have such confidence in the future of this mine to continue on for a while. So, lots of investment there in those two mines this year. When we look at Castle, we’ve been ramping that up. We hit commercial production later in the fourth quarter last year. We’re still working on some niggly points around solution flow and leach pad management. One of the key investments this year really using -- expanding the leach pad, actually spending the capital to build out the Phase 1 leach pad to cover a whole period of Phase 1, so, we’re going to put all that investment into this year. That gives us a lot more flexibility and the operating team a chance to work on increasing the flows and having more flexibility on the leach pad. So, we’ll see production sort of a little bit lower the first half of the year, and it’ll ramp up in the second half of the year. Turning to slide number 9, looking at the Brazil operating mines. Extremely good year last year, very satisfying to see all those mines performed well. Obviously the currency was a key impact and helped on the cost. Performance wise, in terms of production, all the mines performed well last year. And we expect a pretty steady performance this year, quarter-over-quarter. So, you’ll see less variability than you’ll see in the other mines in Mexico and California. Aurizona, I do want to point out, it’s just had an outstanding end to 2020, as Pete said, about $100 million of free cash flow last year. That’s only second year of operation. So, very good results there. In 2021, as a large stripping program and a PFS lift. So, the sustaining capital is a little bit elevated this year, operating costs are basically in line with last year, but slightly elevated, all in sustaining costs. We’ll continue to allocate exploration dollars as well, with that underground prefeasibility study coming out in H2 and continue to work on satellites, extensions, as well as looking at some new potential deposits which are within the 10 or 20-kilometer radius of the mine. We’re really excited about the future here. And we’re allocating the capital to extend that mine life. Fazenda kind of continues the business as usual. It’s been going for on and off for about 25-years. So, business as usual. It’s had a good start to this year. RDM, again, another good start, the mill’s performing very well, the mining contractors continued to perform. We got that large pit expansion permit late last year. We’re spending almost $35 million on scripting each year. So, that’s a key portion of our capital for the growth capital this year. Interestingly, this had been a rainy -- quite a rainy period during this rainy season this year. And as you remember historically, it always is challenge with having enough raw water in the raw water dam to get through a full year of production. But this year, the actual raw water dam is overflowing. We probably have two years’ worth of water. So, really, really pleasing pictures to see over the last week or so. And Pilar just continues on, smaller scale, delivering free cash flow, just sort of steady state. Turning to slide number 10, just to refresh on the guidance that we put out a few weeks back. 600,000 to 665,000 ounces, that’s a 30% increase on 2020. So, continuing our move towards that 1 million ounce target. Cash costs are up slightly, as mentioned earlier. Fuel, reagents, labor and FX is slightly more conservative assumptions this year going into the year, although we’re actually seeing almost the opposite on the FX front. I think, both the peso and the Brazilian real have actually been weaker than -- or much weaker than we expected early this year. So, getting some benefit from that at the moment. All-in sustaining costs increased a little more substantially due to the CapEx programs at Los Filos, Mesquite, Castle and RDM. We’ll be improving those substantially in the second half of the year, as Pete alluded to, and quarter four looks to be a really good quarter as we open up new ore sources at both Mesquite and Los Filos. Growth CapEx. Basically, the key components of that are the $100 million investment in Santa Luz restart. I’ll comment on that in a second here. $35 million on the pit expansion at RDM, and also opening up the Guadalupe open pit and the Bermejal underground at Los Filos. So, those are the key components that make up that $200 million. So, we’re spending about $400 million on CapEx this year in total, including the sustaining, but it really does set us up for a strong 2022 and beyond. So, next year, in 2022, we should be producing up to 900,000 ounces of gold. Turning to slide number11. Looking at the development projects. So, Los Filos expansion, the plan there is to move that towards 350,000 ounces of annual production on a fairly steady basis from 2023 onwards. We’ve selected an 8,000 ton per day plant, and that new feasibility study, as I said, will be out in Q2. We won’t start that investment until that social collaboration agreement is signed for Bermejal underground. But, we hope to have that up and running fairly soon here. And we should be in a position to launching the construction on the CIL or the carbon-in-leach plant later this year as well. In terms of Santa Luz, we did start construction, as we announced in the second half of last year. It’s about 25% complete, just seeing pictures on the concrete cores for the mill foundation, also for the tank foundations. Resin has been ordered, steel work is well underway, and mining is expected to start in May. So, making a really good start to progress there. It will be constructed by year-end. The physical construction will be done. So, we should be pouring gold in early 2022. At the moment, the mine is on time and on budget. So, great to see. And some of the teams that helped build Aurizona are down there, spearheading this one. Looking at the Castle Mountain Phase 2 feasibility. That will be ready imminently. We expect that out in the public domain in a few weeks’ time here. It should show a nice increase to the mine life, to the annual production, to the reserve base. On the back of all that, we’ll also be looking at a slight larger mill. And then, what this feasibility will allow us to do is start the permitting process to amend that permit in the summer of this year when we make a submission to these regulators. And we expect that will take us up to three years to permit, which works in really well with our current development pipeline. We get Santa Luz done by around this year-end. Hardrock potentially could be started in that second half of this year and completed around the end of 2023, early ‘24, then we could be starting construction on Castle Mountain. So, a nice sequencing of our projects. Looking at page number 12. The Premier acquisition, we announced that, I think it was December 16th. The vote happened last week. We got 99.9% favor for the Premier shareholder vote. We’re just waiting on the Mexican antitrust approvals. We expect that in the next few weeks here, similar to what we had last year with Leagold. It took us till mid-March. So, we expect probably second half of March, we should have that. And also the i-80 spin-out that Ewan Downie will be running. It’s had a nice sort of visibility in the Premier share price. It’s probably moved up to about $250 million of implied value, our 30% stake, then will be just under $100 million. So, nice to see that value creation happening already and a focus on that pure Nevada-based company. Looking a little more closely on slide number 13 at the Hardrock asset. As we announced earlier this week, we’ll hold a 60% stake in Hardrock. We bought the 50% through the Premier acquisition, and we’ve negotiated deals to buy another 10%, which we’ll close just after closing of the Premier deal. We’ll acquire that 10% from Orion for just over $60 million. So, we’re really pleased to have that majority stake to really be able to say that we’re behind this project 100%. We actually got a chance to visit it last week and put our feet on the ground and actually see the excitement in the local region for this project. They’re really keen to see it up and running and all the stakeholders are behind it. So, nice to start with that support. As well, just a quick reminder. Now, this is a permitted project, social agreements in place with the First Nations. It’s truly construction-ready and has a project team that’s been there, that’s done the feasibility study, that’s built a few mines Agnico Eagle [ph] and fairly remote locations in Northern Canada. So, really got all the pieces in place to get going later this year. So, we’re pretty excited to get this acquisition completed and do a bit of work before we can launch in the construction, but really get this thing moving later this year. This asset will be a cornerstone asset for us for years to come. It’s a 5.5 million ounce deposit. So, great scale to it. We’ll produce over 400,000 ounces in the early phases. Lots of exploration upside and potential. I was really pleased to see that last week. There’s potential for an underground eventually. The 14-year mine life is only focused on the open pit. As well, there’s some potential satellite deposits to the west of the property. Some really exciting drill results come out of there as well. So, we see this as a multi-decade mine, eventually. It’s got a great starting project. And we plan to get into construction there, hopefully later this year. Look at the other assets on slide number14 of the Premier acquisition. Mercedes, it’s 50,000 ounce producer currently. It’s producing good cash flow. It’s about $1,000 all-in sustaining cost. So generating good cash on a quarterly basis. Hasaga is an exciting Red Lake property. It could be a mine one day. We plan to do some exploration there in due course, but we’re really excited about that one. Rahill-Bonanza, it’s a bit of a smaller project. It’s sitting between some evolution properties. And this is a logical part of that complex in the long-term for sure. And then, i-80 Gold, as I mentioned earlier, Ewan Downie will be running that out of Reno, Nevada. It’s three focused assets in Nevada, one producing, one that can be put back into production fairly easily in a high-grade exploration project effectively. We think Ewan and the team will be able to create some real value there. And as we’ve done with Solaris, we think we can support them and help them surface that value as a focused U.S.-based gold mining company. And turning to 15, just to kind of bring it together. When you look at this portfolio of assets with the Premier’s acquisition completed, it really does create a nice balanced portfolio. We’re happy with the diversification. You’ve got almost a quarter in each of these jurisdictions, being Canada, U.S., Mexico and Brazil. Reserves and net asset values, the upside and expansion potential and all the exploration that sits in this portfolio is just fantastic. We’re really pleased that we’re able to balance it now almost 25% in each of these regions. And I think this year will be exciting because you’ll get number of studies out, you’ll have some exploration results. And what we’ll be able to do is expand a couple of the assets and really show that there’s growth and potential in all of these regions. We’re not reliant on any one. It’s actually nicely balanced going forward. And turning to 16 and just pulling that all together, what does that really translate to? Well, this is the leading growth company in the sector right now. I’m not sure there’s anyone with that kind of growth rate, as you can see in the third column there. We plan to be hitting that sort of 1 million ounce mark in a couple of years’ time here. We also have a nice reserve base of almost 16 million ounces, and we see that growing in the near-term here. So, at the leading end of all the peer comparable categories here, on this slide, except for at the valuation end. So, our key job here is to move that multiple of price to net asset value up from 0.5 to 0.6, up into that sort of range, like our peers of that 0.8 to 1 times. And really over the next 12 to 24 months, as we execute, as we expand the portfolio, as we become a 900,000 to 1 million ounce producer, we really think that re-rating has got a really good chance of achieving that. And the balance sheet is in place to deliver on that growth. And just in summary here on slide number17. It’s been a busy year in 2020 along with the catalyst for 2021. We’re going to focus on delivering on the production and the cost base that we have. But that production will have a 30% growth factor built into it. And we’ve also got a $37 million exploration program, which will be mostly focused on extending the mine lives and around the mines that have shorter than 10-year mine life. So, it’s nice to see that we’re actually reinvesting in our own portfolio. This year, it’s more inward looking than it has been probably in the last couple of years. We’ll be looking to close and integrate the Premier Gold acquisition. We’ll be looking to support Solaris and i-80 goals as they create some value. And really, on the M&A front, it’s a little bit more subdued. I think going forward right now, we’re focused on basically expanding our assets, delivering on the value of all the great assets we have internally here and simplifying the portfolio. So, what we think we’ve done here is we’ve created a company with all those pieces to create value. It’s well positioned in this gold cycle. Diversity scale, we’re in mining-friendly jurisdictions in the Americas. The growth is all owned internally at the moment. We don’t need to go out and buy it. We’ve got a strong balance sheet, $600 million of liquidity, another couple of hundred million dollars of investments and at a very low net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of well below 1 times. So with that, in our long-term common vision with our core shareholder base, we’re really excited about the future here. And we think that Equinox is really set up for a strong future, and 2021 will be a fun and exciting year, so. With that, I think I’ll end the formal part of the presentation and maybe turn it over for a question-and-answer.