David Khani
Analyst · SunTrust
Thanks, Toby. Before we get into the detailed quarterly results, I'd like to quickly review the financial accomplishments that we have made through the first 4 months of the year. Coming into 2020, we faced approximately $3.8 billion of debt maturities coming due through 2022. Subsequently, we have refinanced or paid down approximately $2.4 billion and plan to retire the remaining $1.4 billion over the next 19 months. We've thoughtfully managed our liquidity and although our current position is more than adequate, we fully expect to improve it going forward. We have developed a more robust hedge process to be able to capture rising prices over time while at the same time, derisking the volatility in our revenues. We've accelerated the timing of our tax refunds, which increased our first quarter free cash flow and helps us better rationalize our asset sale program. We've lowered our CapEx forecast for 2020 3x and squeezed out more out of our G&A expenses. And last, we are reiterating our 2020 guidance, while many in the S&P 500 have pulled their guidance. In addition to these accomplishments, we've also had a great first quarter from an operational and financial performance perspective. The earnings release published today and the 10-Q that will be filed later this afternoon contain all the details, but I will review some of the highlights. Overall, we outperformed in many areas. First, we achieved sales volumes of 385 Bcf for the quarter, which exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range by 20 Bcfe. This outperformance was really a combination of various efficiencies realized across the organization, the largest of which was improved base production uptime. Adjusted operating revenues were $957 million, down 21% compared to the first quarter of 2019 as the average realized price was $2.49 or $0.67 below last year while sales volumes remained relatively flat year-over-year. Our first quarter 2020 production-related operating costs reflected a per unit basis or $1.33 per Mcfe, $0.05 lower than the first quarter of 2019 and below the low end of our full year 2020 guidance range of $1.34 to $1.46 per Mcfe. Outlook synergies were $262 million or $214 million lower than the first quarter of last year and lower than our expectations. As Toby mentioned, our Pennsylvania Marcellus well costs averaged $745 per foot, accelerating our path towards achieving our target well costs and driving our outperformance for the period. Our adjusted operating cash flow for the quarter was $513 million as compared to $647 million in the first quarter of 2019, while free cash flow was $251 million as compared to $171 million in the year ago period. Free cash flow was positively impacted by our reduced capital expenditures as well as $95 million in accrued cash income taxes from the CARES Act, which accelerate our ability to claim federal refunds of alternative minimum tax credits. For the first quarter, there were also a few other items I want to point out, which impacted our competitive results versus last year. First, as previously disclosed, we completed the exchange of 50% of our equity stake in e-Train for gathering rate relief in conjunction with the execution of a new gas gathering agreement with EQM and $52 million of cash proceeds. As a result of this transaction, we recorded a contract asset of $410 million, representing the present value of the expected rate release and a gain of $187 million. We will amortize the contract asset over a period of approximately 4 years beginning at MVP and service date. This noncash amortization expense will be recorded as a part of the gathering expenses in our GAAP reporting but will be separately identified and excluded from our adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow non-GAAP metrics. Second, during the first quarter, we also reclassified certain in-basin transportation expenses to gathering expense in our financial statement and disclosures and guidance. This aims to provide additional clarity into costs associated with transporting our gas outside the Appalachian Basin. There is no net change to our 2020 guidance, but approximately $0.14 has been moved from the transmission to the gathering bucket. Overall, the first quarter was another successful quarter under the new leadership. During the second quarter 2020, we expect sales volumes of between 360 to 380 Bcfe, average differentials of negative $0.45 to negative $0.25 per Mcf. We're also expecting an uptick in capital expenditures to approximately $300 million, driven by increased activity, better weather and more daylight, all of which we expect to drive roughly breakeven free cash flow during the period. I started off my prepared remarks by discussing the financing accomplishments we've achieved thus far in 2020. And now I'd like to spend a little time talking about the details related to our maturity management strategy. I'd like to refer you to Slide 15 in our analyst presentation, which clearly lays out our plan. After applying all the proceeds from the recent convertible debt offering to the 2021 term loan, we now sit with about $620 million of debt maturing in 2021. When you take in consideration the 2020 expected free cash flow of $275 million at the midpoint, over $300 million of additional tax refunds and other small receivables, approximately $125 million in proceeds expected from E&P sales in advanced stages and the remaining e-Train stake, which has a current market value of approximately $200 million. You can see we have clear line of sight in handling the 2021 maturities and adequate carryover funds to be applied against the 2022 maturities. Then we turn to 2022 maturity of $750 million, which I remind you, isn't due until the end of 2022. As I just mentioned, we plan to have several hundred million of that paid off by the end of 2020, leaving us with significant flexibility in our approach to managing that debt stack. Improving natural gas macro and commodity setup could support our ability to pay down this debt with cash flow generation if we choose. We also have several selective asset divestiture opportunities we can pursue to accelerate, supplement and/or enhance debt retirements. Touching on the selective asset divestitures quickly. We are taking a measured approach to selling assets. The market is still there, particularly the minerals market, but we are being very selective and deliberate in our decision on whether to continue pursuing this at this time. We expect that by the end of 2021, we'll have reduced debt by more than the original contemplated $1.5 billion, but in a more methodical way that should improve our cost of capital. This substantial debt reduction in conjunction with the improving natural gas macro should exploit our pursuit back to investment-grade metrics, creating a more strategic differentiation for EQT. As the fundamental drivers of natural gas macro continue to play out, we are carefully studying the commodity market to assure we are making highly informed strategic hedging decisions. When we created our updated hedge program in February, winter weather disappointed, setting the strip down about $0.30 to the $2.20 to $2.30 level. We added about 300 Bcf to our 2021 hedges during the February and March time period, the latest capturing pricing between $2.50 to $2.70. At the heart of our strategic approach is appropriately balancing the ability to capture 2021 pricing upside while protecting the downside risk. As we move through the year, we will look to opportunistically layer on hedges at favorable prices. We will expect to enter 2021 with a substantial percentage of our production hedged with additional hedges over the next several years. The pace of our hedging activity has slowed post the full emergence of COVID-19 and the OPEC price war for a couple of reasons. First, as the supply/demand impact of the current environment become clear, we're becoming more and more bullish on the natural gas pricing set up for 2021 and beyond. Secondly, the broader E&P group has been forced to layer on hedges to protect borrowing bases that are subject to redeterminations, creating pricing pressure in the market, and we want to wait for this dynamic to abate. I'd like to also remind that we have the roughly 90% of our 2020 gas production hedge at a weighted average floor price of above $2.70 per decatherm, which has and will insulate us from commodity price volatility as we move through 2020. Our current liquidity sits at $1.6 billion, which consists of $2.5 billion unsecured revolver, which is essentially undrawn, offset by approximately $900 million of letters of credit posted, stemming from the ratings downgrades that occurred earlier this year. Based on discussions with counterparties and maximum collateral exposure levels, we believe we are largely through to collateral cycle. I want to reiterate that unlike many E&Ps and Appalachian peers, our revolver is unsecured and not subject to borrowing base redeterminations. This is a strategic differentiator as it removes one of the biggest variables of the liquidity equation. Although our current liquidity is nicely above our minimal liquidity needs, we continue to pursue steps to add back liquidity. I'm encouraged by the progress we have made in removing risk, improving the balance sheet, getting this business up to prosper. We have received positive feedback from the steps that we've taken and look forward to continuing to create value for our stakeholders. I'd now pass the call back to Toby.