David L. Porges
Analyst · SunTrust
Thank you, Phil. Last week, we completed our annual strategic review with our Board of Directors. As is our norm during the third quarter call, I will use most of my time reviewing the main points of that discussion. As you probably imagine, there are not a lot of material changes to our strategy. We continue to drive shareholder value by economically developing our vast resource base and investing in the ever-growing Midstream opportunity in our focus areas of Southwestern Pennsylvania and Northern West Virginia. There has been some evolution in the execution of our strategy that is worth discussing. One overarching theme is the continued emphasis on reducing unit cost, unit operating cost, cost of capital, et cetera, in all aspects of our business. I'd like to focus on one aspect of this today, optimal pace of development. First, we continue to believe that it is most economical to develop our core Marcellus and Upper Devonian acreage as fast as is practicable. But there are many factors that help determine that optimal pace, and these factors and constraints have shifted over the past 7 years or so since this play's early days. Through about 2010, the primary constraint for EQT was the availability of low-cost capital. We removed that constraint by redeploying proceeds from various monetizations to allow us to invest an excess of operating cash flow. In 2011, we sold 2 midstream assets. In 2012, we created an MLP, EQT Midstream Partners, to allow the continued sale of assets without surrendering effective control of those assets. We still have about $2 billion of midstream assets at EQT, which will be dropped to the MLP over the next 2 years, assuming EQM's continued economic access to capital markets. While a strong balance sheet may not be a differentiating attribute during times of capital availability, it can be very valuable when capital is scarcer. We're seeing some signs of that amongst our peer group and therefore want to ensure that we maintain a strong balance sheet and ample liquidity. This influences our thinking regarding the timing of drops, amongst other things. Hence, our decisions to accelerate drops and also to shift more midstream CapEx to EQM. Once we resolve the capital access constraint by monetizing assets, the constraint on optimal growth was set by the pace of clearing enough land for long lateral multi-well pads as we felt that was the most economic way to develop this asset. This year has been pivotable -- pivotal in resolving this constraint as we now clear pads well ahead of our drilling pace even though our emphasis on multi-well pads and long lateral stresses even the best of land groups. This success, primarily as a result of fast-tracking acquisition of mineral rights adjacent to existing development areas, revision of drilling permits pertaining to pads under development and other measures, has come earlier than we expected. As a result, we decided to start increasing our standard lateral length earlier this year as part of ongoing efforts to further improve economic returns. To give you an example. One pad cleared for 2015 drilling has 11 Marcellus wells averaging 5,700 feet, plus 8 Upper Devonian wells averaging 6,600 feet. That equates to over 115,000 pay -- of feet of pay and 770 stages on 1 pad. Now this approach does result in longer lead times between spudding a well and turning it in-line as it takes longer to both drill and complete wells with longer laterals. And that is what caused the modest reduction in the midpoint of our 2014 volume forecast. However, from our perspective, the more important point is that this move to longer laterals results in a 6% reduction in cost per foot of pay and is consistent with that clear strategic driver to further reduce overall unit cost structure. So having resolved the capital and land constraints, the current constraint to optimal development pace is takeaway capacity. We have seen this coming and have planned our midstream construction and firm capacity commitments to accommodate mid-20% per annum growth for the next several years. Given that there is limited incremental takeaway capacity in the near term, our development plans over that time will be calibrated to allow us to fill the takeaway capacity, meaning that efficiencies that allow us to achieve the mid-20% per annum growth more economically, such as multi-well pads in long laterals, likely will result in achieving volume targets with fewer wells. Of course, we keep adding to future takeaway capacity with projects like our Ohio Valley Connector, or OVC; and Mountain Valley Pipeline, or MVP, which are staged to provide takeaway capacity that facilitates such growth for many years. Continuing on that theme, our midstream growth -- our midstream group has an ever-growing opportunity to provide gathering and transmission services in the Marcellus and Utica. Strategically, we think more and more of the midstream growth projects should be funded at EQM instead of being built at EQT and dropped. Funding organic growth projects in that manner was probably always in EQM's best interest, but EQM was too small to wear this investment in construction projects. And frankly, EQT was able to profit from selling completed projects to EQM once they were built and contracted. With EQM's growth and high coverage ratio, it can afford to warehouse larger projects. From EQT's perspective, now that the general partner, or GP, is receiving 50% of incremental cash flows, we create more EQT value by avoiding capital at the EQT level and benefiting from the GP than we do from expending that capital at the EQT level and recovering it in drop proceeds. Also, consistent with EQT's desire to maintain a strong balance sheet and liquidity, we would rather not warehouse such large midstream projects at EQT. An example of this thinking was mentioned in the press release this morning that EQM is assuming EQT's interest in MVP. MVP will require a lot of capital in the coming years, but EQM now has the size to finance this project without compromising their distribution growth. This makes the project more economical for EQM unitholders, while EQT shareholders will benefit by an increase in GP value as a result of the higher number of shares outstanding and continued visibility in distribution growth. As an example of this latter point, we updated our GP value estimate to account for both OVC and MVP. As Pat mentioned, that new slide is in the updated presentation on our website. The previous estimate for GP value, as you will recall, was $3.9 billion. Adding MVP adds over $0.5 billion in GP value, and adding OVC adds over $100 million in value. So with these 2 projects as the only changes to that prior estimate, the updated estimate is $4.6 billion. This same dynamic exists when examining the impact on GP value of other possible investments by EQM. Now does EQT stock price reflect this GP value? It is impossible to be certain, but we think it is highly unlikely that it does. This fact, along with the growing GP value estimates, reinforces our view that we must do something else to highlight that value. All year, we have been saying that we are targeting sometime around year-end to make a final decision about what that is so that we can execute against that decision next year. We are still on that schedule. We will let you know as soon as we decide, but given that we are getting close to that decision, we think it best not to discuss the options in too much detail on today's call. And I'm now going to turn it over to Steve to provide more color regarding our preliminary thinking about next year's development program.