Earnings Labs

EQT Corporation (EQT)

Q1 2010 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 29, 2010

$59.17

-0.40%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the EQT Corporation First Quarter 2010 Earnings Conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions). Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Pat Kane, Chief Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

Pat Kane

Investor Relations

Good morning everyone and thank you for participating in EQT Corporation’s first quarter 2010 earnings conference call. With me today are Dave Porges, President and Chief Executive Officer, Phil Conti, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In just a moment Phil will briefly review a few topics related to our financial results that we reported this morning then Dave will provide an update on our drilling and infrastructure development programs and our other operational matter. Following Dave’s remarks we’ll open the phone lines for questions. But first I’d like to remind you that today’s call may contain forward-looking statements related to such matters as our drilling and infrastructure development including experience, expansion, sales volumes, rates of returns, well cost, acreage acquisitions, financing plans, operating cash flow, rates and other financial and operational matters. It should be noted that a variety of factors could cause the company’s actual results to differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed in these forward-looking statements. These factors are listed in the company’s Form 10K for the year ended December 31, 2009 under risk factors as updated by any subsequent Form 10Qs which were on file at the Securities and Exchange Commission and available on our website. Finally this morning’s call may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please use this morning’s press release, a copy which is available on our website for the reconciliations and other disclosures which impact such non-GAAP financial measures. Before introducing Phil Conti, I do have one house keeping item. Later today we will pose to our website EQT’s 2009 quarterly sales volumes by play and our realized price reconciliation table in the new format that was presented this morning. With that I’ll turn it over to Phil Conti.

Philip Conti

Management

Thank Pat and good morning everyone. As you saw in the press release this morning EQT announced first quarter 2010 earnings of $0.65 per diluted share which was an 18% increase over share in the first quarter of 2009. That increase in EPS as well as the increase in cash flow that we mentioned comes as a result of another outstanding operational quarter across all three of EQT’s business units, including record produced natural gas sales and continued load drilling and per unit operating costs at production. Another record in gathering transmission and processing volumes in our Midstream business and solid operating income at gas. The result this quarter I think are pretty straight forward, so my comments about the financial performance will be relatively brief before turning the call over to Dave Porges. Starting out with EQT production, operating results, it is in the case for well over a year now, the big story in the quarter of EQT production was the growth in sales of produced natural gas. The growth rate as you saw hit almost 31% in the recently completed quarter over the first quarter of 2009. That growth rates was organic and was driven by sales from our Marcellus and Huron/Berea horizontal shale plays which together contributed over 40% of the volumes in the quarter, far exceeding the 25% contribution in the same quarter a year ago. Contribution from the Marcellus shale is growing rapidly and represented over 10% of the volume this quarter when it was really about 1%, it contributed about 1% in the first quarter of 2009 and only 3% for the full year of 2009. Gas prices were also up a little bit in the quarter. The realized prices at EQT production was slightly higher at $4.23 compared to $4.16 last year…

David Porges

Management

Thanks Phil and good morning everyone. As I assume my new role EQT, I look forward to building upon the firm foundation laid by Murry during his 12 year tenure as CEO. Because of his leadership and passion EQT has transformed itself from a regional utility into one of the leading natural gas production companies in the nation. EQT and its predecessors have been around for over 100 years. In my opinion Murry Gerber, will be remembered as the finest CEO this company has ever had. One of his greatest legacies has been developing a management team that can continue his fine work. As many of you know, I joined the company in 1998 along with Murry as Chief Financial Officer. Over the past 12 years, I’ve held various management positions, the most recent being President and COO. At the offset EQT strategy was set largely by the two of us and we view this effort as a partnership. Increasingly the management team that has built up and grown up around us has become much more involved in setting strategy and running the company. This is a team that is committed to the ultimate goal of increasing shareholder value. Aspects of achieving that goal is just in all of our businesses from accelerating our innovating shale drilling program to expanding and strengthening our Midstream capabilities to continuing our initiatives to be the most efficient and customer oriented gas distribution company we can possibly be. Still the core strategy that animates our upstream and midstream efforts is accelerating the monetization of our extensive reserves. We intend to accomplish this via the drill bit and other means as appropriate. Those other means could include anything from partnerships with strategic or financial parties to asset sales. However we feel that our ability to…

Pat Kane

Operator

Thank you, Dave. That concludes the comments portion of the call. BJ you can now open the call for questions. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Yes, sir. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Scott Hanold

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Thanks, good morning.

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Hi Scott.

Scott Hanold

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

So, it looks like on the well you indicated that you are drilling at 8,500 foot lengths and 28 stage fracs. So when you look at pushing the envelope in terms of trying to optimize production, what is your capacity do you believe in terms of just kind of your acreage position or what you think is sort of the optimal length at this point in time?

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

We don’t know. We are experimenting so that we can come back with you. And based on what we are seeing now with current technologies, that 8,500 foot maybe about as far out as we can economically get. I mean, but, we have got a – we are committed to experimentation and we will have to get back to on what we wanted to conclude eventually is the best approach. We do think it probably makes sense to go further than 3,000 which is the current standard. But in the Marcellus as you are aware that the acreage positions are so fragmented that land is going to be a limit that we are going to windup figuring it out.

Scott Hanold

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Yes, absolutely. And when you think about that, are you actively looking to I guess bolt o on to your acreage position to enable you to optimize your drilling at this point?

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

We are certainly opened to those types of tactical acquisitions. I also think something though that we haven’t done a lot of here which is normal in other plays were fragmented acreage and therefore we are going to get into are doing deals with other production companies, whether it’s little swaps or people participate in the wells with each other, et cetera. I think we have seen a little bit of that in the Marcellus. Historically we haven’t really done very much of it, but I think that is going to be a – that’s going to be something we are going to wind up pursuing on the business development side of production.

Scott Hanold

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay, got it. And when you look at those, I think you said 11 wells had been online for 30 days. It had an average 30-day rate of 6.6 –

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

6.6.

Scott Hanold

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Yes, 6.6. How did that compare at 6.6 in that first 30 days compared to your 4 to 4.5 Bcf model?

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Those are basically consistent. That’s – we keep looking at the right EURs. But, of course, event that – some of those 11 have 30 days, which isn’t that much data to be using the reassess EURs.

Scott Hanold

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay. And one final question. What did your active horizontal rig count in the Marcellus right now and where do you expect it to be at the end of the year? And can you also, as part of that talk about the acreage acquisition that you made, how much activity is going to be up in that area?

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Let me answer the last one first. As we put in the equity presentation, we are still looking at probably about three wells in that area of 2010. The closing hasn’t actually even happened yet. So it should happen today. But the working hypothesis is three and we will revisit that in future calls once we actually own it. As far as the rigs, it depends on the definition. We typically run with the notion of we have got about six and it’s – and those are more than big rigs. And you might assume to go along with that that there is three piggy back rigs, but if you count total rigs in the Marcellus to nine. And we would expect that we would continue that through the year, so that would be consistent with getting at that 100 wells for the year.

Scott Hanold

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I appreciate it, thanks.

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Thanks Scott.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers Investments. Please go ahead.

Craig Shere

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers Investments. Please go ahead

Hi, congratulations on the quarter.

Dave Porges

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers Investments. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Craig Shere

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers Investments. Please go ahead

What is the time frame you are perhaps thinking about for feedback on this new technology application that may allow the use of smaller, less costly rigs in the Marcellus? And how would you see that kind of interweaving with the possible continued upward migration of the frac stages and EURs going into 2011?

Dave Porges

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers Investments. Please go ahead

I really think this is more of an ongoing issue. It’s probably in the area of months when it comes to making a real assessment on the rigs. But what I was really trying to get across on the call is that our team doesn’t just have an innovation or two, it really is a culture that they have got. So they are going to – the possibility of changing how we drill those wells is something that they have been working on for a while. They've been making changes. We've had some experiments that succeed, some that don't succeed and I just think this is going to be an ongoing process. We'll have more to report on that I'd say probably every quarter.

Craig Shere

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers Investments. Please go ahead

Well, let me ask you in a different way perhaps. Having looked at the R&D options and the potential and actual realized in the last couple of years in tax of them, would you say that what you have on your plate now in terms of things that you're kind of evaluating to tweak the drilling process would maintain, accelerate. Where would it be in terms of the potentiality of the reduced trend of CapEx per Mcf over time? And if you look at the last couple of years and what you have on your plate now, can we see an acceleration of the cost per Mcf improvement or it's totally up in the air?

Dave Porges

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers Investments. Please go ahead

I don't think it's totally up in – I don't think that we're going to see the kind of step changes that we've seen over the course of the last year, not that level of step change, those were huge changes that we experienced. I do expect that the trend over time is going to be continued improvement. There'll be a lot of small innovations is what I anticipate and then the occasional larger innovation. Now in the near term with oil field inflation going on, we're probably looking for some short term or mid term period of time having productivity improvements that keep us more even as opposed to the kind of we're swimming against that tide right now but we don't expect that that's going to go on indefinitely.

Craig Shere

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers Investments. Please go ahead

And is the cost there more on the fracing, the steel, where is the main cost?

Dave Porges

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers Investments. Please go ahead

Anything that seems to be particularly used in the high pressure shales around the country is under cost pressure would be my assessment.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ray Deacon from Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead.

Ray Deacon

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Yes, hey Steve. I had a question for Steve. I was wondering, do you see any range – Ran just talked a little bit about the Utica and the upper Devonian potential and I was wondering if you have any plans to test that and (inaudible).

Steve Schlotterbeck

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

We've taken a little bit of a look at that, Ray but that's not one of our top priorities right now.

Ray Deacon

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Okay.

Steve Schlotterbeck

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

I mean we respect those guys greatly and we obviously follow whatever they are doing, we take a look at what they're doing to see if there's any lessons for us. So, we're as interested in what they're doing as you are but it’s not one of our top priorities right now.

Ray Deacon

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Got it, but you wouldn't rule out that it could be productive and –

Steve Schlotterbeck

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Oh, not at all.

Ray Deacon

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Okay, and just –

Steve Schlotterbeck

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

We're optimistic about it eventually as well, it's just that we have other things on the plate that rate ahead of it right now.

Ray Deacon

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Okay.

Steve Schlotterbeck

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

But long term we have -- we're probably as optimistic about that as they are.

Ray Deacon

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Okay, got it and I guess -- I'm still not quite understanding your math when you talk about the 3 to 3.5 year payout at the current strip for Marcellus well because I'm showing somewhere around a Bcf to 1.3 Bs in year one. It seems like $5 gas, you'd get payout on a well in one year I guess trying to make sure I understand that.

Steve Schlotterbeck

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Well, it's probably best for Pat to walk you through some of our approaches offline.

Pat Kane

Operator

We haven't put out an actual decline curve yet but we're going to -- we'll be doing that in the next several months.

Ray Deacon

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Okay.

Pat Kane

Operator

Alright?

Ray Deacon

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Yes, great and just –

Steve Schlotterbeck

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

I want to tell you do bear in mind Ray that we take into account the infrastructure upfront as well.

Ray Deacon

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Well, okay, that would make sense.

Steve Schlotterbeck

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Right, so that's an upfront cost that definitely affects the economics?

Ray Deacon

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Not just a well cost, got it.

Steve Schlotterbeck

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Right now the subsequent well to fill existing infrastructure, then it might be the economics you're looking at right now would work.

Ray Deacon

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

Got it, got it, makes sense. And I guess, Steve, it doesn't sound like you yet want to put out an IP rate for one of these longer lateral cure on wells I guess, just any thoughts there?

Steve Schlotterbeck

Analyst · Pritchard Capital. Please go ahead

No, we just assume kind of get one or two on -- get more of them online and then we'll do that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Rebecca Followill from Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead.

Rebecca Followill

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

Good morning. Dave in your early remarks you said that the ability to execute against organic strategy will create more opportunities for monetization.

Dave Porges

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

Yes.

Rebecca Followill

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

There are guys that are much earlier in the learning curve in Marcellus, a few are getting $14,000 an acre. What do you think you could do organic strategy that would give you more than that or that would make something different versus what we are seeing already in transaction?

Dave Porges

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

Well, certainly those are some nice numbers that we are seeing out there. We would agree with that. But I guess from my perspective, six months ago or nine months ago, folks were wondering why we wouldn't sell $5000 an acre. So it’s hard to tell where it’s going. We do think that we are in the upper tier, let’s say of Marcellus producers and that vary up, but we are not claiming that we are number one, but we are in that – if there is an upper group, then we are in the upper grouping and we would like to get enough results out there so that that becomes the general view.

Rebecca Followill

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

And I guess I am trying to figure out when is enough enough? I mean how do you need to know and I know that you have got 3 million acres and you have only drilled a handful of wells in the scheme of things. But what gives you that comfort that think you are there, is it a couple of years from now, is it 10 years from now, how kind of far long in that process?

Dave Porges

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

I don't know that we measure in time. But I will tell you our ears are open. When people come to talk to us, we listen. We don’t tell folks that we got no interest. But if they have got a way for us to increase shareholder value, we listen. I do think that we find more people are talking to us as a result of the well results that we started putting out really only late last year. I think we are already seeing folks taking us a little bit more seriously. And at this point, I think we expect that trend to continue but I wouldn’t put a timeframe on it. Talk to the other companies that we are interesting in putting money and then ask what they think of EQT, that's probably a better metric than what – than us commenting out.

Rebecca Followill

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

Why don’t you tell me who they are and I will go talk to them.

Dave Porges

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

I was hoping you do that work for.

Rebecca Followill

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

Okay, so they are knocking on your door and you are not turning them away at this point?

Dave Porges

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

Well, it’s an – they do. But haven't we all been a little surprised by the extent of the international interest? I mean Reliance Industries, interesting.

Rebecca Followill

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

They have big numbers and impressive numbers.

Dave Porges

Analyst · Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead

I mean that's – I know – that’s big company, the guy who runs it, a very wealthy man, he could certainly afford it. But we just wouldn’t have thought that an Indian company would have done that. So who knows? So now we got a Norwegian company, Indian company, a Japanese, who got in. I remember when I was in banking, the Japanese were getting big into the upstream in the U.S., that was in the 80s. And then you really didn’t hear a lot from them in the 90s and the odds are whatever we call that. So it allows that, if the Japanese are interested again, then who know where we are heading.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Zack Schreiber (ph) from Ducane Capital.

Zack Trevor

Analyst

Hi, it’s Zack Trevor (ph), can you hear me? Just following up on the (Becker’s) line of questioning, did you guys have any conversations with Reliance and it sounds like you did and obviously --

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

No, I don’t mean to mislead you, no we did not. We had been hearing about it before the deal was announced but we – no, we did not have any discussion. Honestly the only connection is Reliance – up at the CEO of Reliance was a business school classmate of mine. So I am following them with a little bit more interest, but no we did not have conversation.

Zack Trevor

Analyst

Is this the former Shell guy?

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

No, I am talking about Mukesh Ambani.

Zack Trevor

Analyst

Oh, really, got it. So the folks (inaudible) have not called you or they have called you or they are starting to call you.

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

People are sniffing around but I don’t know what they are interested. I don’t think you want to say we know what they are interested in. So far our impression is that people who have done deals are ones that – are the producers who went after them aggressively. But I don’t think that's the only conversations that are going on.

Zack Trevor

Analyst

So when you rip apart the Atlas Reliance deal, is that a deal that you think you could have done or is there something distinguishing about Atlas’ acreage via the geology or the location that you think makes that valuation not accessible to you or do you think that it actually were you to explore and aggressively pursue these joint venture opportunities that kind of valuation is accessible to you. I am not sure what to kind of say, Dave.

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I don’t know if it’s accessible. I think the best deal for any company is probably specific to the company’s circumstances. So I don't feel comfortable speaking for what Reliance or Atlas saw. I feel pretty confident they must have each thought that it was the best deal for them. But beyond that, all we are taking away from it is that it appears as generally speaking the values that are available out there are still going up despite the very weak price environment.

Zack Trevor

Analyst

And so what you are saying was that when Reliance was looking for that deal, you were not actively in the market looking –

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

You don’t think – look, you would have to talk with Reliance and Atlas. Our impression was that that Atlas was looking for a deal.

Zack Trevor

Analyst

Agreed.

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

That’s our impression that Reliance was comparing it to others, but we don’t know, we weren’t – we certainly were not involved in a process.

Zack Trevor

Analyst

Got it.

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

We thought the process, if there was one, was coming from Atlas’ end.

Zack Trevor

Analyst

Got it. And just in terms of the value from accelerating the monetization of you extensive reserves, following up again on (Becker’s) question, so I am sort of plagiarizing here but how exactly do you view your success with the drill bit feeding into any possible asset sales or partnership type deals. If it’s not an issue with the amount of time, is it an issue with some degree of success or EURs that you think, if it’s not time, what exactly is it that you think allows you to reach full value because I agree with you, values do keep going up despite the low gas price and that's obviously the economics of the asset that you are sitting on but if you sit on that forever, waiting to go up, you are effectively competing against the time value of money discount rate. So at what point is it better to bring forward that value, I am not sure I am making sense, but bringing forward – I guess what’s the rate of inflation of that value relative to your cost of capital and discount rate?

Dave Porges

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

I don’t have a specific answer for you. I will you that it does seem to us that we are still in the process of demonstrating increased value from these assets. And that we think is a positive no matter what way we go. And it seems to us as if there is no diminution in interest in the shale and in the Marcellus shale specifically on the part of either domestic or international companies. So while we agree with you, you don't want to wait forever, it doesn't appear to us as if you need to be panicked into doing something either. And we continue to show improvements. We don't think – at this point it doesn't appear to us as if our performance is plateauing.

Zack Trevor

Analyst

Got it. Alrighty, I will let you escape. Thanks so much for the time.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session for today’s conference. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Pat Kane for any closing remarks.

Pat Kane

Operator

That concludes today's call. The call will be replayed for a seven-day period beginning at approximately 1:30 Eastern Time today. The phone number for the replay is 412-317-0088. A confirmation code, 436916 is needed for the replay. The call will be replayed for seven days on our website as well. Thank you everyone for participating.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the EQT Corporation first quarter 2010 earnings conference call. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.