Earnings Labs

Equinor ASA (EQNR)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 6, 2020

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Transcript

Peter Hutton

Management

Ladies and gentlemen, we're very pleased to welcome you to Equinor's Fourth Quarter 2019, and capital markets update. We really appreciate you coming along to join us today. It's always good to engage with our analysts, investors and stakeholders. So very, very welcome here this morning. We will start with a short introductory video and then go straight into presentations from Eldar Sætre, our Chief Executive Officer; Pal Eitrheim, who is the EVP of the Renewables business; and last, Christian Bacher, who is the CFO. We'll then open up for questions both from the floor and also from those who are dialing in this morning. But safety first. So what I would like to do is just give a very short statement relating to safety. If the building needs to be evacuated, the fire alarm will sound. On hearing the alarm, security and support staff will be on hand to direct you to the nearest emergency exit and assembly point. This assembly point is Copthall Close, which is next to Apex London Wall Hotel just across the street from this venue. I think I'm right in saying that there are no planned emergencies. But if there is one, there will be plenty of staff around to help you to move to the right place. With that, thanks again, and we will start the video. Thank you. Eldar Sætre: So thank you, Peter, and good morning to you all. So we are living in times of change as the short film showed us and the outbreak of the Coronavirus is another strong reminder that as a society, we're facing many, many challenges. But as always, it is a great pleasure to welcome you all to our regular Capital Markets Day here in London. And I must admit that even more than…

Pal Eitrheim

Management

Thank you, Eldar, and good morning. This is a very special day. It is actually the first time that we present the renewables business at CMU. And of course, it is a great pleasure for me, but even more importantly, I think it is a strong signal about the strategic importance and the potential of this business for Equinor. It's an opportunity for me to provide more detail on the renewables business and also talk about why we see this as an area of competitive advantage. 2019 was very much of a game changer for Equinor's renewable business. We won offtake contracts for Dogger Bank and Empire Wind. We sanctioned Hywind Tampen on the Norwegian continental shelf. We increased our shareholding in Scatec Solar, and we farmed down half of our share in Arkona for €500 million. We have 50 years of oil and gas experience and a decade in offshore wind. For us, offshore wind is very much an extension, not the step-out from our traditional business. We have world-class technical expertise. We are financially robust, and we are competitive on cost. And we now have the scale and the capabilities necessary to create value. A few comments on our producing portfolio. Equinor strategy starts with always safe. And safety is our #1 priority. In renewables, we had no serious incidents last year or so far this year. This, I think, illustrates the underlying quality of our people as well as our operations. Our producing assets in the U.K., in Germany and in Brazil provide stable revenues. In 2018, our share of net profits from our 3 U.K. assets was around £70 million. Last year, our availability factor was 96%, and our production increased by an impressive 30%. Our contracts in this space typically start with a period of…

Lars Christian

Management

Thank you, Pål. Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. It's a great pleasure to see you all. And it is a privilege to present the 2019 fourth quarter and year-end results, and Equinor's very strong outlook. We delivered adjusted earnings in the quarter of $3.6 billion. This is down mainly due to lower commodity prices. Production in the quarter ended at record high 2.198 million barrels per day. Compared to the fourth quarter in 2018, production and a liquid share of production increased by 1% and 3%, respectively, due to the startup of Johan Sverdrup, Mariner and Utgard. Our realized liquids prices was down 4% to $56.5 per barrel. And even though we realized higher gas prices than the NBP prices, our invoice gas price in Europe was down 31% in the quarter. The IFRS net operating income for the quarter ended at $1.5 billion with impairments, mainly as a result of change method for tax uplift in impairment calculations for assets on the Norwegian continental shelf. Exploration and production Norway delivered $2.7 billion before tax. Lower commodity prices, lower flex gas volumes were partly offset by new fields in production and higher liquid share and our 9% reduction in unit production costs. The result is also impacted by a one-off settlement with COSL of around $60 million. For Exploration and Production International, the adjusted earnings were $247 million before tax, mainly impacted by a 38% reduction in U.S. gas prices and expense and planned exit from our current turkey assets. If we exclude increased transportation costs to capture high margins and cost from starting up new fields, fourth quarter underlying cost is at par with the same quarter last year. Cash flow per barrel after tax is $22, which is higher than what we see for the Norwegian continental shelf.…

A - Peter Hutton

Management

Thank you. Lars Christian. Now, we'll open up for some questions from the floor. Just as a reminder, there are a lot of people here from the media, so there'll be an opportunity for you to have interviews and questions after we're done with this one. So this is a focus on more of the financial side. We'll take some questions from the floor. We've got some roving mics. And then we'll also take some from the phones. So I'm going to start off with Jon Rigby over here, please?

Jonathon Rigby

Management

Thank you, Peter. Thank you, guys, for the presentation. That was my phone breaking. Two questions, one on the results and one on the strategy. So if I do the results one first. Obviously, a feature of the fourth quarter was a strong MMP result, which I think you acknowledge was both gas and oil trading. I just wanted to understand how much of that trading is a feature of your activity in the fourth quarter as opposed to sort of legacy positions that had gone on over the last 1 or 2 years. I'm just trying to understand better how repeatable those kind of results are in the context of the macro that we saw? The second question is, is that looking at your ambition around carbon intensity, it is subject to, obviously, the significant step-up in contribution of energy supplied from your offshore wind operations and also on a reduction of your net by way of CCS. And I guess, both of those, I mean, the wind opportunity is subject to the economics being attractive for you to invest in CCS, I guess, the same is you need the environment to change and some technological breakthroughs, I would think to make CCS work. So my question there is, what gives - is it - if the economics are not there, would you still invest in those things because you want to get your carbon profile down? Or would you sacrifice some of that ambition around carbon in order to preserve your returns? Eldar Sætre: Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Jon. So I think on the MMP and the downstream part that Irene will - could answer that and try to reflect on the sustainability of the strong earnings that we had this quarter. So I'll leave that to Irene first, and then we'll come back to the more strategic question. Is that okay?

Irene Rummelhoff

Management

Okay. Thanks for the question. I actually think the earnings that we made in fourth quarter is mainly a result of activity in fourth quarter. And what we have been doing lately on both the crude and the product side is that we're moving more and more volumes to Asia and taking advantage of the arbitrage between the 2 markets. With the introduction of Johan Sverdup, we have the ability to build large vessels and take the advantage of scale in transportation cost. We also had some benefits from the results from additional infrastructure earnings due to Johan Sverdup. And on the gas side, we told you on the gas seminar last year that we're introducing a slightly new way of managing our risk exposure in gas. And I think we're starting to see the results of that. So I would argue that this is mainly due to activity in the quarter, that we can hopefully repeat going forward. And it's worth noting that the crude trading business has actually made money in 18 consecutive months even in a backwardated market. It's definitely much easier to make money in the contango market. So quite proud of what we have achieved. Good team. Eldar Sætre: Thank you, Irene. So you might - could I continue to talk about CCS as well. But sit down, please, I'll try to sort of - you get a chance to talk about that in the [indiscernible] in the breakout session, actually, because that is now within your responsibility, the CCUS and the hydrogen business. But it's a good question. On the longer term, on the transition and the net carbon intensity, we highlight very much renewables and the structure of oil and gas business and the scale of oil and gas business, but also the…

Peter Hutton

Management

A couple of questions coming through this side. So I've got John A. Olaisen and then Thomas.

John Olaisen

Management

It's John Olaisen from ABG Sundal Collier. A question to the $30 billion in estimated free cash flow over the next four years, given a $65 oil price. First, a quick just definition of that. What kind of gas prices are assuming? And secondly, it's after organic investments. And if I'm right, some of the non - inorganic CapEx would be oil and gas license rounds, wind auction rounds, et cetera. Just as a definition of that? And then I have the main questions afterwards. Please, if you can define that, please? Oil and gas price and it's license rounds and wind auctions included in that CapEx number.

Lars Christian

Management

Gas price 6 NBP and 3 Henry Hub compared to the $65 oil price. So that's price stack. Eldar Sætre: And then the $50 scenario is 5 NBP.

Lars Christian

Management

5 NBP. Okay. And organic to your point, the inorganic is not included because we don't know what level it will be going forward. So this is based on what we have in our portfolio.

John Olaisen

Management

So what you pay in wind auction round and licensing rounds, it's on top of that?

Lars Christian

Management

Yes.

John Olaisen

Management

And also, historically, you've been a net buyer of assets and of companies. So I would come on top. Could you elaborate a little bit on going forward, where would you be looking to do further acquisitions in the 4 years to come? That would lower the $30 billion available for shareholders?

Lars Christian

Management

Well, first of all, the $30 billion at 65. We last year guided $14 billion at 70. That was over three years. Now we guide over four years. So to compare the two numbers, to get the numbers right, you have to add the dividend, $10 billion to the 14 and divide by three and multiply by four and then you get to around the same number per year. But at $5 lower oil price. So there is a much, much stronger, robust sort of cash flow message that we provide you. I think when you look at the portfolio outlook over the next 5, 6 years, that growth, we do that out of a net debt ratio in the middle of our guided range. We have enough on the plate to deliver that growth and not every going to do on buying companies or assets. We can cherry pick and take the time to make it right. That's the beauty about having a strong balance sheet. You don't need to divest to sort of buy stuff. And that's the beauty of having high resources in the bank so that you can take your time to work it. And that's why we've done the deals we did in 2019. And that will guide us going forward to. Eldar Sætre: So oil and gas is basically - you can't produce the resources more than once. So it's about replenishing and building portfolio for the future. So you have to build that. There are 2 ways of doing that, through exploration or through acquisition. And that means we will continuously look for good opportunities, but we have a strong portfolio, as Lars Christian says, for many, many years, and there's no need for us to do anything at all to build a resource base, extend it in a meaningful way, high-value opportunities. We have all the time in the world to get this right and make sure that whatever we do is really value enhancing for - into our portfolio. And by the way, all organic, that also includes all the things that goes into the planned activities and auctions that we might take part in. And we also include actually reasonable assumptions from exploration, that you will do exploration, and there will be investments coming from that. So part of what we consider to be normal business but not inorganic straightforward inorganic opportunities.

Peter Hutton

Management

Thanks, John. If we just come forward through to gentleman at the front. Thomas Adolff, there we go. Good to see.

Thomas Adolff

Management

Thomas Adolff from Crédit Suisse. Two questions for me as well, please. If we go back to Slide 14, that's the one on the net carbon intensity, and you showed the 5 buckets how to get there and the second one is the oil and gas split and scale. And I wonder whether you can be a bit more specific on what types of portfolio shaping moves are necessary to really hit this second bucket? Will overall production be lower versus today? Or will it be simply a shift towards more gas from oil? And then second question, maybe also linked to the first question. Obviously, the upstream business today pays for your dividend and also for the nice buyback you're doing. And your longer-term targets for the renewable business of 12 to 16 gigawatt and correct me if my math is wrong, probably can offset a $10 decline in the oil price at the operating cash flow level. But of course, renewables is long lived, as you've highlighted, and it's lower capital intensive. So together with the comments on oil and gas, whether it's a lower productive - production base, how should one think about the capital intensity of the business longer term and the capacity to basically pay the dividend as it stands today? Eldar Sætre: So first, on the net carbon intensity and the oil and gas part of that, I indicated in my introduction that there is a lot of optionality. And there's no way of prescribing exactly what this will look like. But I also said that we will - in a low-carbon future, in this scenario, there will be less oil and gas. IEA scenario tells us that the world will need approximately half the oil and gas compared to what it does today…

Lars Christian

Management

No, just one because it's so easy to compare the returns on renewable projects with the oil and gas project. But please remember that there are some associated costs in addition to running an oil and gas company that you don't have for the renewables business. So we are very comfortable to your point for the period of time that we are showing here today. And beyond, it's going to be very dependent on the levers and what the composition of the company looks like going forward. But we will keep you posted on it, but very strong outlook towards 2026.

Peter Hutton

Management

Got some questions coming over here. So I'm going to start with Alwyn, who is a gentleman there.

Alwyn Thomas

Management

Alwyn here from Exane BNP Paribas. I guess, just to start with, can you maybe quantify or discuss some of the risk to cash flow ambitions this year due to the - what's happening in Asia and obviously low gas prices and some of the impacts you might have around trading as well as other parts of the business? Just some commentary there would be helpful. And splitting out the - your CapEx guidance, particularly the step-up towards $12 billion in the long-dated era, is that equity CapEx after project financing? And maybe could you just say a little bit around whether you're stepping up R&D or research spend within that, as we move towards new energies, new technologies. And perhaps beyond that, whether you'll be splitting out the renewables or new energy solutions part of the business in terms of earnings or cash flows? Eldar Sætre: You managed a lot of questions in one go there. Okay. So I'll cover some of this. So let's start with the gas prices. We know where we are on gas prices, we are down there. It's been - it's cyclical. We can see that the gas - the global gas business is becoming sort of one. It's not a regional business anymore. It's really a global commodity. Looks more like the oil transition that we saw many years back. And right now, we - and also, last year, we were heavily impacted by lot of new LNG capacity. It was predictable, not a surprise. We know sort of time lines. And also, slightly muted demand growth in Asia, in particular. Right now, really high storage levels all over. And on top of that, temperatures, but that's the sort of similar demand. So the combination of the current situation is really - keeps a muted and a low - weak market. Now we expect that to be the situation for a while. So this year, also deep, at least deep into '21. You can see that basically from - we could be surprised from temperatures, but you can see that from the new LNG projects being fed into the supply side. Then this will start drying up, and demand will continue to grow. And there are many factors that have come into this, but we do see a more balanced gas market going forward and - as we are heading deep into '21 and into '22. So that is a pretty robust projection from our side. I don't know if Irene, do you want to add something to the gas perspective here? You make money on top of it, so...

Irene Rummelhoff

Management

No, I think it's a very good summary. The only thing I would add is that the low prices does create demand. And we've seen additional demand coming in, in Europe. And we've seen additional demand, for instance, in Pakistan and Bangladesh. So there is some good news to this story as well, but it's a pretty entire picture for the next 1.5 years at least. Eldar Sætre: Thank you, Irene. Then the question on CapEx guidance on equity and project financing. So maybe you comment on that, Lars Christian?

Lars Christian

Management

Yes, I mean, we do this growth after strength. And we have the capacity, both when you look at the balance sheet to do it. We have the capacity, if we look at the organization to do it. And we have the opportunity set - our portfolio set of opportunities, we already have in-house to build that pipeline. And back to my comment earlier, $6 billion around that is what we need to just sustain the production level of 2019 towards 2026. Everything on top of it is to grow in oil, gas and renewables. To your question on whether renewables should be a segment or not - sort of separated out. It's too early to say that we will report it as a segment, it's not material enough yet. We understand that there is a sort of an urge for giving you more information and insight into that. And that is why you see this year that we provide you with more visibility. This is about the production-based availability, production outlook, capacity outlook, CapEx outlook, portfolio achieved prices, which was around £160 per megawatt hour, returns, both existing portfolio producing and the forward-looking one. So we are going to provide you a bit more and more visibility as this business grows. No plans of separating this out. Eldar Sætre: I guess, there could also be an implicit question in that, are we planning to split up the business? And we are not, definitely not. I think Pål highlighted very much the synergies and the strength that gives us actually coming from the oil and gas competence and integrating that and benefiting from that into the renewable space where we focus. That is so strong that we will have - do the best - pick the best from what we have, what we - our legacy, our competence, at the same time, as finding what is unique for this business. So that is not an idea that we are pursuing. R&D, maybe Anders, shall be thinking a little bit about that now. So he can offer some comments on that?

Anders Opedal

Management

Yes, we are going to spend NOK2.8 billion in 2020 on R&D. But also remember that we are testing new technology in our projects and our wells as well. The - we are not guiding any R&D beyond 2020. But as we ramp-up production in Brazil and Canada, there will be more obligations. And then we will have R&D in line with that. For 2020, also 25% of our spending R&D would be in low-carbon solutions. Eldar Sætre: Pal, any comments from you now?

Pal Eitrheim

Management

One of the main points that I made was very much around the benefits of being part of a broad LNG company like Equinor. And if you're very specific, I have access to the full technical capability of Anders on Arne Sigve Nylund on the digital side. I have full access to [indiscernible] commercial people on the market side and the power trading. And if - I use a very simple example sometimes. If I need a 20% material engineer, I buy that from Anders, I don't hire one 100% and use him or her every Friday.

Peter Hutton

Management

I know we've got some questions on around the same table, but I'll try to take these in the order I saw them. So it's the gentleman on the front row there, and then we'll come back to that table.

Anders Holte

Management

It's Anders Holte from Kepler Cheuvreux. Thanks for a solid presentation. I guess, the robust is the key word for this [indiscernible]. Just a few questions, if I may. First of all, I know you've refrained from giving a breakeven oil price required to cover all of your CapEx and also your shareholder distributions for 2020. And I'm guessing you're going to try to [indiscernible] because there's a lot of moving parts, and I think we realized that. But at least what oil prices does Lars Christian feel the heat a little bit before he starts to tap into the net debt figure. And then the second question is more on Dogger Bank. You mentioned that the returns - and I think, the returning guidance of 6% to 10%, it's a solid figure. But also you mentioned that you have already locked in quite substantial cost reductions on Dogger Bank, and I'd just like to pick your brain in terms of how much are we actually talking about here in terms of the original investment guidance provided by you previously? Eldar Sætre: So to talk about oil prices and where we are now is complex. We know sort of the pressure points. And there's a lot of responses, OPEC response and so on. We know that last year, the Brent plan was almost $64 per barrel, and we saw a lot of volatility throughout the year. And that's also been part of this year. So basically, we - our resilience is the recipe for us, robustness, as you said. And we illustrate 50, 65 and 80 to give you sort of the wide range, and that is mainly the mentality where we build our business and build our operational efficiency. So I think that is - you want to comment more specifically?

Lars Christian

Management

Yes. A couple of years, we have done the numbers and showed you and based on a $70. Now we're taking it down to $65. Average last year was $63.8. So it's kind of where we are over the last year or so at least. When we have done the calculations for 2019, if you exclude the share buyback, we were around $50 when it comes to being cash flow positive after - according to then what we guided. So we are very comfortable with the composition. Eldar Sætre: Pal, on the second question?

Pal Eitrheim

Management

On Dogger Bank, the short answer is there's no updated sort of guiding on cost. The number that is out there should not be treated as a sort of a firm estimate. It's a ballpark number to give people a sense of where we are. And what we are is chasing every value pocket and every cost there is, and we will do that all the way from now to we start production. So there's no updated number for you, sorry.

Peter Hutton

Management

Another couple of questions from those, then we're going to take a couple from the from the phones, and now, Josh.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

So I will ask two questions, please, follow-up one on CapEx and one on the share buyback. So regarding the CapEx, you guided on a $10 billion to $11 billion CapEx in 2020, 2021, then growing to $12 billion. So I just wanted to know if the CapEx growth will only come from the renewables, meaning that you intend to keep the upstream CapEx at the same level and still deliver a 3% production growth with the same - roughly the same absolute CapEx until 2026? And second question, regards with the share buyback, you announced it in September. Since then, the hydrocarbon prices have been moving a lot. So you provided a maximum, let's say, share buyback program of $5 billion, but you never said what would be the minimum. So if the hydrocarbon prices, meaning oil and gas prices remain at the current level for a couple of years, would you still be realizing the share buyback of $5 billion or revising it down? Eldar Sætre: Okay. So on the CapEx guiding, this - we have indicated in Pål's presentation, what will be the CapEx spend over the next few years, $0.5 billion to $1 billion of this year or next year and then $2 billion to $3 billion. Now that is a gross number for '21 and '22 - or '22, '23. So you will have project financing that goes into that. So into our CapEx number, you will have a lower investment number. But it will definitely - and taking off 50% to 20% of our CapEx within 2 to 3 years, so it will definitely be a bigger portion of our CapEx spend when we start guiding at $12 billion. So roughly speaking, you're right. You are pretty much in the same range not as…

Lars Christian

Management

The way I look at it, you should read the second chance announcement as not only visibility but also confirmation for the remaining period until 2022.

Peter Hutton

Management

A question from...

Yoann Charenton

Management

Yoann Charenton from Societe Generale. To recast some of the questions we ask at this table. On CapEx, it's clear that you have demonstrated that the level of activity across the group is pretty high versus history. But at the same time, if we look at the past few years from a pure financial perspective, you have consistently underspent versus guidance and you save billions. So I would like to better understand how we should think about the CapEx guidance you commented on today? And if we should look at this guidance, with the same sort of lenses we had to look at your prior guidances. Then on production, just to come back on to very short-term sort of implications of the situation you described with extremely low gas prices across the Northern hemisphere. We can remember that in 2019, you had to defer significant volumes of gas. Gas was aimed at supplying Europe, how much is built in, in terms of gas volume deferral in your 2020 guidance, please? Eldar Sætre: So on the deferral of gas, we are very cautious to give volumes and definitely not guidance because that would be sort of sensitive market information. And basically, when we predict the future, we don't sort of add any assumptions on that is basically deliver what is the base assumptions in the production permits. Production permits gives us some flexibility, but we don't sort of take that into account. But it is something that if there are deviations from this, we will explain that and introduce it as part of decisions that we make continuously. But it's not part of sort of our guidance as such. On the CapEx?

Lars Christian

Management

Yes. On the CapEx side, I mean, it's been a privilege to report that the - in many ways, have come under the guiding over the last couple of years, thanks to an excellent project execution. And hopefully, we will be able to replicate, at least that's what Anders and his team is trying to do. Whether that is in oil and gas, on behalf of Arne Sigve, Margareth, Torgrim or Pål in the renewable space. And not only that, we want to be even better. But this is based on our best estimate, the numbers that we provide you, and that's a 50-50 number. So I can't sit - stand here and say that it will come under - below. Because then I should give you a lower number. Eldar Sætre: So I guess, I could just invite you to take part in the breakout session, and you will hear talk - how we talk about both the digital, the savings that we have done, on Johan Sverdrup, for instance, and how we perform on drilling performance compared to the industry, on project developments compared to the industry, and they will show you that it's quite impressive number. So it's this performance that is actually giving us that. And I - starting point, start of the year, we gave you what's the best estimate I can assure you.

Peter Hutton

Management

And we've got one more to come from the floor, but it's first come first serve. I think we're just going to take a short break, take a question from the phones.

Operator

Operator

We will take the question from Anne Gjøen from Handelsbanken. Anne Gjøen: I wonder if you will do some term of inorganic investments. Do you still - if you find it economically attractive, will you still be interested in kind of opportunities when it comes to shale in the U.S. or in Argentina also? Or could we more rule that out because you have so many opportunities elsewhere and because of environmental reasons? Eldar Sætre: Okay. So generally speaking, we always look for value creation opportunities. Sometimes, you see that when it comes to acquiring assets, we see we can do better, we can do more. We can create value on top of what we buy. Other times, it's about divestments. We see that others can do better than we can. We divested Eagle Ford, for instance [indiscernible]. Perhaps they can do - they think they can do a better job and we let them give that a try. So this is really what this is about. And we pursue this kind of opportunity generally on - within quite big space. And now I will now ask Al actually, he might not be prepared, but give him a chance at least to comment on how we think about that from his perspective because he's running that part of our business.

Alasdair Cook

Management

Thanks. I think the first thing to say is that we look at each acquisition on a case-by-case basis. We screen them primarily on value. And then we also have a separate screening process for climate, for carbon emissions and for safety, and a few other factors as well. I think, in some sense, you can see the direction we've been in. Over 2019, you've seen the acquisitions we've done, strengthening our position in some of our core areas, the additional equity in Johan Sverdrup, the growing position that we're building in Argentina, the growing position that we're building in the Gulf of Mexico, and you'll see that those assets demonstrably add value, build in our core areas, but are also in line with the direction we're taking on climate change and on reducing our global carbon intensity. Eldar Sætre: Thank you, Al. On shale, more specifically. So we did a transaction, as I mentioned during last year, high-grading our portfolio within the shale and also built shale business activities in Argentina, building a position there. Run very high-quality, Christopher working on. I think it fits nicely into our portfolio. It has the flexibility that is very useful in our portfolio, both from a CapEx spend perspective, but also from a commodity perspective. We can decide when we would like to sort of produce these volumes from a commodity perspective. Torgrim, you might want to add something? What you're doing to address that business?

Torgrim Reitan

Management

Yes. So thanks. So we all know that the history of U.S. onshore has been a bumpy road for Equinor. We have made significant impairments as we acquired assets in a very high-priced environment, and that didn't stand the test when prices collapsed. So we always need to start with that, when I talk about the U.S. onshore activity. When that is said, I mean, that business has been through significant improvements over the years and more recently, high grading the portfolio. So that part of the business is contributing positively to the bottom line and has done that over the last few years. So competing fairly well compared to others. But clearly, we have much more to do to improve this business even further. And then - and clearly, it is something that will - we aim to - that business to contribute very positively to the future of Equinor. So particularly, we see in the Northeast, in Appalachia, that, that business still makes money, even if we are facing gas prices around $2 per MMBTU. So - yes.

Peter Hutton

Management

Thanks very much. I'm going to come back into the room. We've got at least a couple of questions, three, and then we may be calling it a day. Josh.

Joshua Stone

Management

It's Josh Stone here from Barclays. Just had one question on your renewables capacity - or capacity available target in 2026, the 4 to 6 gigawatts. It looks like that's an outcome of your existing projects. And I want to know to what extent you actually see some upside to that number from future license rounds coming up? And are you making any assumptions and therefore continue to sort of farm-down off your projects as you develop them? Eldar Sætre: So I hand it directly over to the - handle that business?

Lars Christian

Management

No, you're right. It does, to a large extent, reflect the existing portfolio and the projects that we have accessed already. And then as I said in my introduction, there are - we are positioning for additional lease rounds and in the core areas because we see a lot of value actually in concentrating that growth to some areas to get the economies of scale in those particular areas. But it will not prevent us from sort of positioning for new opportunities in different parts of the world. We see Asia coming out in a very significant way, and it's likely to become the new sort of engine of growth in that area. The portfolio management, bit optimizing portfolio, will be a part of our business model. But I won't sort of conclude on if and when and in what assets, et cetera. But it is a key source of value creation for us going forward.

Peter Hutton

Management

Valeria and then [indiscernible].

Valeria Piani

Management

Thank you, Valeria Piani from UBS Asset Management. Firstly, big congratulations for your new ambitions on climate change, it's great to see the step-up from the past. I have a question on your ambitions on almost 0 emissions for the Norwegian continental shelf. What is blocking you to do the same for international operations? Eldar Sætre: Okay. So I touched upon it briefly in my introduction, basically. In Norway, we have a framework. First of all, you need energy to produce oil and gas, and in Norway, electricity can be picked up from the grid and it's a renewable grid, basically, it's all about renewable energy. And we have actually more renewable than we use in Norway. So we have a surplus that is available for our industry. So - and we also have a price of carbon. On top of that, we pay EU ETS quotas. So we have a double tax in a way. And generally, also a framework conditions in terms of the tax system that incentivize investments into these type of efforts. So that's why this actually makes sense. The sum of these components makes it profitable. This enhances our - the value of our portfolio in Norway. Internationally, basically, depending on where we are, but we don't have that electricity, it's not available. We don't have the same type of costs related to carbon emissions. And in some cases, not the overall framework, financial framework, either. So it's a different situation depending on where we are in different countries. So basically, when we work internationally is really about addressing how we produce the oil and gas, what to do with the gas, do we inject it, that takes energy, how the economics of that work, the energy efficiency overall into our operation, the turbines, the compressors and so on. So it's very much done through the configuration and the shaping of project. So it's becoming more important how we actually shape our project. But we will be as vigorous on the international portfolio. And we will take down our footprint. Also internationally, you will hear more about that ambition later today, actually, how we work on that. So - but the toolbox is slightly different. So we worked just as hard. And the overall combined target for us now is 8 kilos per barrel produced globally in the corporate portfolio, as we are heading towards actually 0 on the Norwegian continental shelf. But that is a journey for where we are now to 0 by 2050, 40% will be taken out by 2030.

Peter Hutton

Management

Margareth would like to comment?

Margareth Ovrum

Management

Yes, I'm going to comment on the international part, because we are planning for having carbon intensity at below 10 in 2025 for all the international operations also for the portfolio internationally. And I can say, we do not have the same levers as we have on Norwegian continental shelf. But still, we managed to do some very good CO2 reduction project. For instance, on Peregrino, we are importing gas instead of using diesel. This is less cost and is less emissions. So in this project, we are reducing it with 4 kilos per barrel also. So we are trying to utilize all the competence and the big Equinor also naturally. Eldar Sætre: And just my highlight methane emissions. I gave a number, 0.03, that is a very low number globally, and it goes across our whole business. And obviously, you don't want to have methane flowing around on any place where you actually do your business. And by the way, we can sell that in the market or use it for other meaningful purposes. So that's not philosophy, that's very strongly embedded in how we shape our business and do our projects, also in the U.S. onshore part of our business.

Peter Hutton

Management

One more question from the floor from Kate in the middle?

Kate O'Sullivan

Management

Kate O'Sullivan from Citi. Thanks for the presentation. So just a quick one, probably very large question. As we ramp-up, you answered it through 2020. How can we think about the tax impact? Have you any more detail on that? Eldar Sætre: Tax impact?

Kate O'Sullivan

Management

Yes. Eldar Sætre: On Johan Sverdrup? Yes, the cash tax or cash contribution after tax for Johan Sverdrup is very, very robust, and we expect it to be around $50 in 2020 for this year per barrel.

Peter Hutton

Management

Okay. That's $70. I think we talked about around that one, $70. But we - the timing of the phases... Eldar Sætre: But the cash cost is $2 per barrel on sort of cash costs, less than that.

Peter Hutton

Management

Okay. Less than $2. Ladies and gentlemen, we bring this part of the session to a close. Just as a reminder, there'll be an opportunity now for the media to talk with the speakers for the analysts and investors, it's a short break. There's lunch. And then we will reconvene. We'll take you to the various breakout rooms, and we'll kick off. We want those people in place ready for 12:00. Eldar, would you like to Eldar Sætre: I just wanted - we're probably not coming in after the breakout session. So I just want to say it now, I really appreciate that you are here today, all of you. And I brought the whole team here because we think this is a really important event. So they are available for you on various occasions. We have the breakout session. So hopefully, you'll be able to join them and go through a lot of interesting materials. So I will not repeat the storyline that we told you today, that is really a strong proposition, just look at it, get into the numbers and see what this actually tells us about our capacity, to generate cash returns going forward and also how we relate to the transition and how committed we are to capital distribution. So make sure you capture what we are telling you today. Thank you very much.

Peter Hutton

Management

Thank you.