Earnings Labs

Equinor ASA (EQNR)

Q3 2007 Earnings Call· Mon, Oct 29, 2007

$40.07

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Transcript

Unidentified Analyst

Management

[indiscernible]. A question regarding the eight possible on stock on the possible $800 million that you are going to pay. If you are going to pay that, will that imply that you could book some reserves on Shtokman for instance, the second half of 2009? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: Well, when it comes to the potential bonus payment related to the Shtokman, all I can say is that, we haven't paid any bonus. However, if there is a positive investment decision made and we are part of that investment decision in 2009, there would be a bonus, a cash bonus payment to be paid. But I cannot confirm any specific amounts or comment on any specific amount related to that. When it comes to booking a reserve; that is complicated issue I can tell you. And all I can say is that, there is... as it is complicated, there is a lot of elements that goes into that consideration and some of these takes us in a positive contribution, some of it in the opposite and is simply too early for us to conclude on that issue. So, what I would like to add though is that, booking in itself doesn't create any value, that's just a number on a piece of paper. So, it's really the setup, the commercial terms and the value creation that we see, and this is important for us and it should be important for the shareholder, although we recognize that, it is... it has some value in itself to put it that way, to be able to book this. But basically, we are looking at the fundamental value creation potential. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Yes as a follow up question from Stan Harbison [ph] at the Hudson…

Unidentified Analyst

Management

[inaudible] securities. When you emphasized, it might be discussed, cash flow in 2009. Can you exclude and that you will be willing to discuss ownership in Snøhvit or Ormen Lange or is that not something that you would like to comment on that might be part of the negotiations? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: This is a cash flow... Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay we'll take another question from the internet, James Hubbard again from Deutsche. Why do you think that the Norwegian government didn't want to give you the go ahead for the further relevant of the Troll field? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: Basically, I'd tempt that you should ask them, its... and that's probably the way we are approaching it. But what they have stated is basically these are related to concerns on risk... resurf or resource management as such and that the development of the further development of the oil... of the gas, excuse me, would lead to lower potential on the oil side and so that's what they have stated as reason and I have no reasons to believe that there are any other elements included in their conclusion. What I can say is that we have obviously made these kind of evaluations ourselves and we believe that the propositions that we have been working on, on the expansion, we took reasonably care of resource evaluations and considerations as well. So that then we came up with a different conclusion, but all I can say, we have to respect the conclusion made by the government. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Anne? Anne Gjøen - Kaupthing: Anne Gjøen, Kapustin. I have a follow-up question on that Eastern Government decision related to the new pressure tests…

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Bjorn [indiscernible], you got a positive impact from financial items, in which range do you expect the tax to be in the fourth quarter and then 2008. Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: Well, I think you want me to guide on tax effect on financial items, that's the science I wouldn't dare to go into really. But, maybe you are talking about comment on this issue. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: I am sure, I can. I think the tax rate on the financials is --

Unidentified Analyst

Management

On the overall. Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: On the overall. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: On the overall. Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: Yes. I think in general terms, I mean what we have said is that in our international business, we will increase in share over time. And as you will expect somewhat decline in the quarter, of tax rates. Now that is going to take a long time. And the number that we see currently for this quarter is on the lower side on what is there normal tax rate as such, and then, there will be distortions quarter-to-quarter and we will see quite a large fluctuations in the corporate taxes due to currency effects and due to financials as such. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay. There's another question from Bjorn [ph] from Oslo.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

You previously stated that your strategy is to keep the Norwegian production flat and you growth will come from international activities. Given that the gas at the Statfjord project did not get through. Do you still believe that's possible to keep Norwegian production flat through 2015 and what about your plans in Norwegian Sea, how will they be affected by this? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: I think when it comes to any new statements now on the potential for the Norwegian Continental Shelf, I think that's something we would have to come back to, because now we are really... we have to be allowed to spend some time to put together our portfolios and see how that's going to look and also the potential that you are asking for on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. But obviously, I mean what happened on the Troll and the expansion of the network... gas network that has pointed not in a positive direction. On the other hand, we are not sort of digging ourselves into a hole. So what we have to do now, given that assumption is we really have to look at sort of the alternatives and what other ways of sort of getting gas out from the Norwegian Continental Shelf wherever it might be located.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

What kind of ownership stake where you prepared to take in the pipeline, I understand they are referring of course to the pipeline running from the Norwegian Sea to Troll? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: You know if I had that percentage, I am not sure I would disclose it, but actually don't have it, so I am not quite sure actually that the discussion we come to that conclusion of that at all. At this stage, we decided to terminate the plans. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay there's a follow-up question, then just go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

There is actually just another question that is, I mean you are guiding here that you will meet the lower end of your production forecast of 1150. Just how confident are you about that given the high number of startup fields that we see here, we have an increased oil recovery projects and so on? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: Okay, that's a good question. But I can assure you we are thinking about it almost everyday, how certain are you about the production forecast. There is obviously uncertainties in the numbers, still although it's only 2 months left, but because of the reason that you mentioned, we have the ramp up on the Langeled. We have the ramp up of Snøhvit and that means there is still a lot of risk involved in the numbers. We haven't been come back in production on the Kvitebjørn. That is we have... the first well has been turn out positive. The second one we are getting close to reservoir now that could be surprises, so there is always that kind of issues and in addition I would like to highlight the gas side. And as usual, we would have to expect sort of normal behavior in the market on the gas side. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Yes, there is a question from Mark from Oslo. Go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

[indiscernible]A quick question on the EBIT, sorry, on the international part of the gas production. We saw a very low gas price, as you mentioned. Should we expect that going forward? Is there a reason for this short news that the prices are very much lower than other gas prices in other regions? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: I think I answered that more or less that question that I am not in a position to go into specifics, because I mean there are two contracts. And I cannot, if I start to talk about average, we are very close to a resolution, there are reasons in various contract, I am not in a position to talk about the commercial arrangements on this contract. So I think I have to give you the same answer really. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: There are a couple of questions from the internet on the Snøhvit and the ramp up there are. I mean both ENV to Theepan from Morgan Stanley Jason Kenney, Colin Smith and so on ask about when did they start up production? When will plateau be reached on both fields? And how much today should produce? And third caller is, on how much will they produce in fourth quarter? Do you have any guidance on that? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: It's very difficult to give an exact number on this. What we have said on the Snøhvit that we are gradually stabilizing and increasing the production and normally, we will see irregularities in the production going forward into next year at least into the first quarter of next year. But we have defined what we call commercial deliveries and we expect to have commercial deliveries that is reasonably stable full capacity deliveries on the Snøhvit from 1st of December. But we also expect irregularities on and issues that could arise, since we are still in very early days in the running period of such a big complicated facility. On the Ormen Lange, I haven't got any... I mean we are gradually building for the capacity and that's going to go on beyond this year as well. So, but the specific dates for sort of the well program and profile on the build up, I haven't got that specific information for you today. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Another question from John Olaisen from Kar [ph]

Unidentified Analyst

Management

It's John Olaisen from Kar [ph]. Regarding the production cost per barrel, that's up from NOK 26.6 per barrel to NOK 31.5. Can you go into how much of that is cost inflation and how much is tax that you are facing in new fields? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: I say 10% to 20% of that is cost inflation. The rest of that and some is related to actually that we have operational cost on Kvitebjørn, but there are no barrels. So that is accounting for 10% to 20% that kind of events, and then the rest is simply in the activity levels. We have seen... we have to address maintenance activities at a higher level and also some well activities to tight the decline that we see. So that's part of the explanation and then also we are on some other fields that we are ramping up production on like on the Ormen Lange, Snøhvit and so on we have a full cost of running these fields, but we haven't got the full barrels yet. So its simply preparations for production and early production phases that is also impacting this. So there is various reasons going into... but specifically on the cost inflation as such I would estimate that to be between 10% and 20%.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

From what you are saying I would gather that, is it likelier that the production cost per barrel will be sort of coming somewhat down again or is this levels we could anticipate going forward? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: I think what I kind of referred to now is simply what we have said. That's rather vague, but we expect definitely to see a cost level of above 30 Norwegian kroner per barrel for the full year. And, but there are sort of certainly forces, which is sort of putting pressure on the cost developments. As I mentioned about sort of maturing and older field that we need to take care of, to fight the decline, we need to sort of be willing to spend sort of the necessary money to create value on our fields and so on. And there is the cost inflation, and the industry, and there is also increasingly fields with which is production more and more water and a lot of liquids but it is not that much oil that it used to be so. But operating these fields at the same cost as irrespective of what would be produced. So there are forces, which is sort of pushing the cost, but then on the other hand, we have to continuously fight this, and work on cost improvements and so on, and the merger in itself would be one of the tools that we will use to fight the cost development. So where this balance is taking us, I don't know, but there is definitely a cost pressure also on the operating cost.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

I wonder also on the Alberta Oil Sands, the oil in Kristen before. But to what extent, did you foresee that the tax rate were going to increase as much as it did and now it's also gone back half a year since you entered into the agreement. Have you sort of come any further, or what sort of progress and when we can sort of get some more signals from you to sort of what extent we are going to invest and explore and develop that license? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: Well, on the... as I had touched a little bit on the tax changes. Tax risk is something that we account for and we are able to look little bit into the future because of that, and to some extent address that risk. In this case, it is not affecting sort of the breakeven levels of these developments because sort of they don't hit us until they have reached US$45 to US$55 per barrel of WTI. So but it is something as again as I said that has a negative impact on the higher level of earnings here. But when it comes to the news here, the license of the demonstration part that has been approved by the authorities, we still have to go through our internal process of deciding on that. That's going to happen quite soon and then we simply and it's early days and we are still looking, really looking into how to develop this and is far too early actually to be specific on sort of the major developments of this opportunity at this time, beyond what we have said previously, that sort of the first... the first step is likely to come something in the mid of this, of the next…

Unidentified Analyst

Management

John Olaisen from Carnegie [ph]. Is it possible to say anything about sort of timing of events regarding Shtokman? What do you sort of anticipate regarding when first gas can be reached? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: I think what I can do here is, I simply referred to the Gazprom, they have indicated the first pipe gas from 2013 and LNG from 2014 and I cannot add any, or subtract any to that information which has been provided, that's their estimate for the time being.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And is it possible to get some information of the total cost... total investment costs? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer: No. So that's something we would have to come back to when we get the first and final investment decision. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay. We have a couple of detail questions that we'll come back to basically face to face or we will call the single persons there and inform them about. Its public information, so there is nothing new that you won't to have, but it's a very detail things to go into, so we will just leave it at that. And with these words, we just say thank you very much and good bye.