Earnings Labs

Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 8, 2016

$4.74

-0.11%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Evolution Petroleum Corporation First Quarter Fiscal 2017 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to David Joe, Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President. Please go ahead.

David Joe

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

Good morning and thank you for listening to Evolution Petroleum's conference call to discuss operating and financial results for our fiscal 2017 first quarter ended September 30, 2016. I'm David Joe, CFO for Evolution. And on the call with me today is Randy Keys, our President and CEO. If you wish to listen to a replay of today's call, it will be available shortly by going to the company’s website via recorded replay until November 15, 2016. Please note that any statements and information provided today are time-sensitive and may not be accurate at a later date. Our discussion today will contain forward-looking statements of management's beliefs and assumptions based on currently available information. These forward-looking statements are subject to risk and uncertainties that are listed and described in our filings with the SEC. Actual results may differ materially from those expected. Since detailed numbers are readily available to everyone in yesterday's news release, this call will focus key overall results, operations and an update on our reserves. I'm now going to turn the call over to Randy Keys, President and CEO.

Randy Keys

Analyst · Howard Weil. Please go ahead

Thank you, David. We had a very solid quarter, despite average WTI prices in the $45 range. We reported after tax net income of 1.8 million for the quarter on revenues of 7.6 million. And I’ll let that sink in for a minute. In a $45 oil price environment, we were able to drop 24% of revenues to the bottom line after all cost, cash and no cost, cash and non-cash, after DDNA expenses and after taxes. There are technology companies in Silicon Valley that are unable to generate that kind of net income margin. This was part of the decision to increase our common stock dividend. Our primary goal with the dividend is to provide a meaningful cash return to our shareholders, but to do so in a sustainable manner so that our shareholders can depend on the return overtime. This is not a simple task in an industry with volatile commodity pricing, a depleting asset base and continuing demands for capital investments to sustain production levels. We considered all of those factors in the context of our very strong financial position and quality asset base and concluded that we were confident with the 30% increase in the quarterly dividend rate from $0.05 to $0.65 per share. This equates to a new annual dividend rate of $0.26 per share. One or our key questions internally on sustainability was the breakeven oil price to fund the dividend from net operating cash flow. We determined based on the best current information that we have that the new dividend rate sustainable from cash flow with an oil price down into the low $30 per barrel. This is without considering the substantial working capital resources that we have available. While we would be able to continue the dividend for a short period with…

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Brian Corales with Howard Weil. Please go ahead.

Brian Corales

Analyst · Howard Weil. Please go ahead

Good morning, guys.

Randy Keys

Analyst · Howard Weil. Please go ahead

Good morning, Brian.

Brian Corales

Analyst · Howard Weil. Please go ahead

Just a question on the NGL plant, congrats on getting that kind of on time and on budget. How should we think about the production volumes? I mean should we start to see a benefit in December or is that something that is a 2017 event?

Randy Keys

Analyst · Howard Weil. Please go ahead

Well, we expect to see some small volumes during the start of phase during December, but I look for and we hope to see full - a full month of production in January that's assuming that things go off as planned. So, I think we're - we're optimistic. Everything seems to be all systems go, but with any major project like this, you've always got some process of startup testing and working out the bugs and getting it up to full production. We do believe that it will start taking the full recycle CO2 strain that it’s designed for once - once it goes online.

Brian Corales

Analyst · Howard Weil. Please go ahead

All right. And then is there any way to quantify, I mean, some of these work over projects? It sounds like you approved the gross amount of $4 million or so. What kind of production uplift do you see from that?

Randy Keys

Analyst · Howard Weil. Please go ahead

Well, it's a complicated process. There is about 90 to 100 production wells in the field and they all fluctuate somewhat from month to month. So, we don't - we don't really have a target in terms of production. What we've seen is that some projects come on very strong and others are very modest. On a portfolio basis, we think we'll see a nice increase in production, several hundred barrels a day on a gross basis at least, but if it's not something, that’s easy to quantify well by well or project by project.

Brian Corales

Analyst · Howard Weil. Please go ahead

Got you. That makes sense. And then finally one more if I can. It seemed you had a nice increase in the dividend and I guess you're looking to reevaluate once the plant is up and running. How do you balance an increase in dividend versus share repurchases versus potentially bolting on another asset or so?

Randy Keys

Analyst · Howard Weil. Please go ahead

Well, one way to look at it is we're saving - the increase in our dividend is the penny and a half to $0.06. It was a couple of million dollars less the savings on the preferred where it's about a $1.3 million incremental cash outlay for the new dividend. So, it's not - it's not significant to our overall financial position or even cash flow. So, we can sustain this dividend. I think, fairly, fairly easily. We - we have a dividend - sorry a stock buyback program. We have not been active with that program recently. I think we will reevaluate that as we see the year unfolds. Some of that is price-dependent, value-dependent. And we are looking - we have been and we’ll continue to look for new opportunities. We have not found anything we felt was compelling to this point. But we are continuing to look at that. And so I think the way I would describe it is we've got a nice pool of capital resources, this $20 million of working capital after retirement of the preferred. We see that as funds for the right opportunity. And if we don't find the right opportunity, it's also funds for repurchase of stock.

Brian Corales

Analyst · Howard Weil. Please go ahead

All right, guys. Thank you.

Randy Keys

Analyst · Howard Weil. Please go ahead

Thank you, Brian.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jeff Grampp with Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Jeff Grampp

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Good morning, guys.

Randy Keys

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Hey, Jeff.

Jeff Grampp

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Question, Randy, on the NGL plant, do you guys have a good idea or a better handle on what type of realizations we could be expecting once that's up and running or is it still a little bit up in the air?

Randy Keys

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead

It’s a little up in the air. At this point my view is we've - everything we've done to this point has been a theoretical calculation. We know what the CO2 recycle stream is. We know the percentage of hydrocarbons. We know the expected yield. But until the plant is up and running, we're still just making calculations. And so I prefer to wait until we see - we see the actual results. We see nothing that changes our view of the expected realizations at this point. The operator came out with their estimate. They were a little - a little cautious there. The upper part of their range was in line with where we were. They had a little lower bottom end of the range, but it's still - it's still within expectations, frankly, the original expectations that we - that we had when we first committed for the project.

Jeff Grampp

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay. That's fair. And then on the CO2 volumes that you guys reported for the quarter, I guess it looked to be a little bit higher sequentially, so just trying to get an idea, is that maybe a better run rate we should be thinking about going forward or does the - could things even maybe trend higher as you guys get the NGL plant online and start recovering from extra gas volumes out of the stream?

Randy Keys

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Yeah. First off, - to the first part of your question, we've been told that - we’re actually told of a couple months back that 60 million to 70 million a day was - was kind of the range - the target range that the operator was using. So, we - we - I would say that our current rate is representative maybe on the high end of the range, but probably for your purposes should be used as a run rate. On the second part of the question, we have gotten a little further clarification on the volume lost from the NGL plant and that is expected to be about 8 million cubic feet of gas volume per day. So, we may see an increase in purchased CO2 volumes based on the volumes that are being pulled out of the NGL plant, which is about 4.5 million a day of methane, plus the - the liquids - the volume of the liquids that’s in the stream. So, the plant - the plant produces about 150 - sorry, processes about 150 million cubic feet of recycle CO2 per day that's approximately 11% hydrocarbons on the inlet. It extracts the methane that's used in the - in the turbine to generate electricity. It extracts the liquids, which are sold at the field by truck. They'll be sent to processing plant over in east Texas. And so, we will see some volume loss. We also expect to see some benefit from the pure CO2 stream. So, that's another unknown that we really - we have some data on, but we can't fully quantify until the plant is up and running.

Jeff Grampp

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay. No, that's perfect color. I appreciate it, Randy, and I’ll let someone else step in.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jim Collins of PG LLC. Please go ahead.

Jim Collins

Analyst · PG LLC. Please go ahead

Good morning, Randy. Good morning, David. Congratulations on a great quarter. I just wanted to ask you to put on your predictive hat here. You mentioned that your collars, the 45 to 55 expired. So, where do you actually see WTI prices and obviously the LOS [ph] prices that you get going over the next six to twelve months and how you are positioned to react if that should happen?

Randy Keys

Analyst · PG LLC. Please go ahead

Well your guess is as good as mine on most of this stuff but we are probably fundamentally a little more embarrassed than the industry has a whole, a little more cautious on prices the industry got very bullish over the past or two when prices broke about $50 you know with the apparent breakdown of the OPEC agreement that we've seen a pretty significant pullback. I guess we are really still waiting until the November meeting date to get final release or what will be the next decision point. So I would say we are cautious on prices but we are not sufficiently concerned about major shock to the downside that we would want to buy floors or put on additional colors. We still think there is some upside if OPEC can reach agreement so and like I said, our only real commitment at this point is the dividend and we feel between our relatively well protected downside on a cash flow basis plus some working capital we are in a position whether that without any real concerns unless it becomes extended and in fact we don’t see an extended long-term low price environment down in the 30s. It could certainly happen but we don’t really see that at this point.

Jim Collins

Analyst · PG LLC. Please go ahead

Okay that’s very helpful, thank you Randy.

Randy Keys

Analyst · PG LLC. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Bruce Brown with Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead.

Bruce Brown

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

Hi Randy, nice report and nice dividend increase. On the issue of CO2, you were saying that you will get a peer stream out of the NGL plant but it will reduce the volume because you are recycling CO2 with other gas components already in it, down into the field but as I assume so that would require you to purchase more CO2 correct.

Randy Keys

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

It may and honestly we just don’t know that the physics is that, that lost volume needs to be replaced with something either water, oil or CO2, there is continuous process of very injecting water into the field as well as the CO2, the water is injected down to try to replace some of that loss volume and CO2 which is used for the recycle stream. We have seen a significant improvement in efficiency. They have done a lot better job with the efficiency of the CO2, in the field and they have got more production with less CO2 and that typically counter intuitive. So I think we are just, at this point I am just saying let's wait and see there is certainly a possibility we will see an increase in purchase CO2 but that really shouldn’t be a significant increase in our overall operating cost based on what we are seeing right now.

Bruce Brown

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

Okay thank you and another question on the derivative front. You mentioned that you had about 30% of production how far are you hedged in that regard at this point?

Randy Keys

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

At this point, sorry I should have made that clear at this point we have no hedges in place we did have some what I was referring to was our hedges for the most recent quarters that just ended. We had a small percentage hedge and like I said we ride at a very tail end of our capital obligation on the NGL plant. We actually didn’t have the settlement in hand when we put those places, with those hedges in place. So we can hedge up to a year out and 70% of our production is our internal guide line this time based on the current makeup of the company.

Bruce Brown

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

70% non-hedge is what you are saying correct?

Randy Keys

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

Sorry, we can hedge up to 70%. But at the moment we are -

Bruce Brown

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

All right I got it, sorry.

Randy Keys

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

At the moment, we have no hedges in place, subsequent to September 30.

Bruce Brown

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

Okay and if oil price back up to 50, would that be an opportunity in your eyes to possibly pull down some edges?

Randy Keys

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

It might be, our goal there would be to build a floor so we would almost certainly use colors, so we would select a price, somewhere in the 40s we felt comfortable and wanted preserve and we would select a price somewhere well above the current level that we would be willing to sacrifice any gains above that and that’s our collar that we would potentially put in place. So we might, we also might view based on the new information that the likely hood of it going higher is greater and therefore we wouldn’t be as concerned about the downside case.

Bruce Brown

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

All right, I understand.

David Joe

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

All right. Good talking to you.

Bruce Brown

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

Good talking to you too. Yeah.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to David Joe for any closing remarks.

David Joe

Analyst · Brown Capital Management Inc. Please go ahead

Thank you everybody for participating today and if any follow-up questions come up feel free to give Randy or myself a call. Have a great day.