Randy Baker
Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question
Thanks Rick. Turning over to Slide 11, as you all know we started a lean manufacturing strategy initiative last year and many of you have questions about that. So, I am going to provide just a quick update on those strategies and then our commercial effectiveness. As you well know, we started by auditing all of our factories, all 32 locations around the world. We then looked at the training requirements and the skill levels of our employees and then we set transformation targets. As of right now, we have trained over 190 employees worldwide and we've launched multiple sites in lean manufacturing transformation. In fact, we've got several that are near completion. We have a lot of great progress towards those end games of improving the quality, the cost and the delivery and safety metrics of each site. Now as we progress into 2018, we think we can wrap up the remaining sites around the world during the year and then bring Actuant to a fully lean manufacturing company. The next phase of that project is really going to look now at supply chain operations and how can we improve how we purchase, how we manage material and how we schedule. Secondly, we're launching a service effectiveness project, which will impact how we manage rental fleets and our labor utilization in all 24 Hydratight sites globally. So, turning now over to Slide 12, talking extensively in the past about our commercial effectiveness processes, we've done a lot to change how we cover territories, we've increased sales people and we set out clear targets for our sales people worldwide. Secondly, we've initiated a much higher upgrade on our engineering capability, so that as we enter into 2018, we have a much higher flow of new product development and new product launches. In fact, in the fourth quarter, you'll see evidence of that as we launch some new products. Overall, I am very pleased with the results by all of the businesses you see on this slide from Enerpac down to Maximatecc, each one of those companies have shown incremental improvements of keeping customers and capturing new platforms, which is evidenced in our core sales growth and by business, we've seen ranges from as low as 5% growth during the year to well over 20%. So, I really want to make sure our teams worldwide understand that this is working and we're going to continue to push it. Turning over to Slide 13, quick look at the industrial macroeconomics around the world. Obviously, the oil supply continues to be a major problem for everyone. There is a distinct oversupply and even with the cuts that OPEC has done, we haven't significantly impacted the end market inventories and resulting price. This has an enormous impact as Rick mentioned on our maintenance activities and particularly offshore well development and exploration, which in some cases has come to a halt. Moving on then to off-highway equipment, we see good economics and that our agriculture, construction and mining are all looking at better industry demand and clearly on the inventory side, distributors have reduced and are now better suited for the market size. Moving on to the general industrial market, our distributor optimism is improving and we see very good indication that there is real retail demand pulling through product and they are reordering within a quarter, which is a great indicator that there's good dynamics out there. And then finally on the on-highway market, China truck continues to be very good, although we think that that will begin to moderate as we enter into 2018 and we've also seen registrations in Europe begin to slow a little bit in the truck market. So that leaves us over to Slide 14, which is where we set our core sales guidance for the full year. As you can see in the industrial segment, we believe that the growth will maintain in the same range between 5% and 7%. We think the actions we have in place in our own commercial effectiveness and the effect in the market will continue into the fourth quarter. On the Engineered Solutions business, we continue to see good growth and order demand and the outlook on the market is between 10% and 12% increase. I will want to note that our sequential quarters Q3 is typically our most -- our highest and strongest quarter and therefore the numbers you see on the Engineered Solutions business are based on fairly low comps from last year. And then lastly if you look at the Energy segment, we're seeing between 21% and 23% reduction in demand in our fourth quarter, which is down from where we originally had guided, which was upper single digits in growth. So that's a major turn in where we see the full market. So that leaves me on to Slide 15 and the guidance for the full-year. So, on core sales decline of 2% to 3%, that means, we needed to narrow our sales guidance from what was in Q3 to $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion and correspondingly lowering the EPS to $0.82 to $0.87 per share. Our third quarter in sales should be between $260 million and $270 million with diluted EPS between $0.18 and $0.23 per share. And as always, these guidances exclude divestitures and acquisitions and restructuring charges in the quarter. Free cash flow is projected to be between $65 million and $70 million, which is also based on a plus 100% conversion rate. So, in summary, we had a disappointing quarter. There's no doubt in our mind that the actions that we're taking on the energy business will help to make it a better business going forward and to reshape the portfolio to a more profitable segment. We see great performance from our industrial segment and our Engineered Solutions business and we have clear evidence our strategy work is working and we are getting the organic growth we set out in our strategic plan. So, with that, I will turn it back over to the operator to take questions.