Mark LaVigne
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead
Thanks, John. Again on performance, we are very proud of, despite ending the quarter in a more challenging environment relative to where we began. As we look ahead, the uncertainty around tariffs and the impact on the consumer create challenges for the balance of the year. Let's first talk about tariffs. Work we have done over the last 2.5 years to transform our supply chain positions us well to mitigate the impact from tariffs much more quickly than we would have been able to previously. As a baseline, imports from China to the US typically represent less than 5% of our consolidated cost of goods. And as John and I will cover, we have a clear path to further reduce our exposure during the next 12 months. Let's take a step back and revisit the changes we've made to provide more context on why we are confident in our ability to withstand the volatility that has become more and more common. You will recall that as we exited the COVID pandemic, we identified a substantial pipeline of initiatives to rebuild gross margins, improve working capital efficiency and invest for long-term growth. As part of that undertaking, we identified areas where we could improve cost, resiliency and agility. Many of these initiatives were captured within Project Momentum, which you have heard a lot about since we announced it in November 2022. The intent of the program was clearly designed to improve earnings growth and enhance free cash flow. But we were mindful that the changes to our network needed to also enhance our ability to absorb future shocks to the global supply chain. As Project Momentum got started, we took a clean sheet approach to our manufacturing and distribution network, with an emphasis on in-region, for-region production, ultimately to drive improved cost, agility and resiliency. In addition to the work on our existing network, we made several strategic acquisitions over the last few years, which included manufacturing locations in Indonesia, Belgium and our latest plant acquisition in Poland last week. The results have transformed how we bring products to market and are particularly relevant today. For markets outside of the US, we currently source approximately 97% of our cost of goods from either in-region or non-US production facilities. In the US, products sourced from China for US consumption, represents less than 5% of consolidated cost of goods. The remaining 95% are sourced mostly within the US with the remainder from low tariff countries. The significant investments behind our digital transformation have also been a key enabler in addition to greatly improve data visibility and analytics, it has allowed us to streamline processes and overall workflow and has resulted in a more efficient and responsive organization, which is so critical in this environment. Progress we have made over the last several years has been tremendous. Even with that, we are not immune to the impact from the proposed tariffs. We remain focused on managing those items that are directly within our control. A critical area is ensuring that we stay close to the consumer and understand how they are reacting against this backdrop. Recently, there has been a notable shift in consumer sentiment, which has driven increased emphasis on value and heightened caution in their spending. In terms of the impact on our categories, let's start with battery. On a global basis, we expect the battery category to deliver low-single-digit growth over the long-term. However, weakened consumer confidence and persistent inflation across the store may pressure volumes in the short-term. In Auto Care, we expect consumer caution to have a mixed impact in the short-term as some consumers move into our categories and away from do it for me while others prioritize their spend in other categories which maybe less discretionary for them. When we pull all of these together, tariffs, consumer confidence and overall demand, we have tempered our outlook over the remainder of the year, which John will cover now.