Earnings Labs

Energizer Holdings, Inc. (ENR)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 1, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Steven and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to Energizer's Third Quarter Fiscal 2018 Conference Call. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jackie Burwitz, Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

Jacqueline E. Burwitz - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Good morning and thank you for joining us. During the call, we will discuss our results for the third quarter of fiscal 2018, our outlook for the remainder of the year, and update you on our acquisition of Spectrum Brands battery and portable lighting business. With me this morning are Alan Hoskins, Chief Executive Officer; Tim Gorman, Chief Financial Officer; and Mark LaVigne, Chief Operating Officer. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay via our website, energizerholdings.com. During the call, we may make statements about our expectations for future plans and financial and operating performance. Any such statements are forward-looking statements, which reflect our current views with respect to future events. We also refer to non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP measures is shown in the press release issued earlier today, which is available in the Investor Relations section of our website, energizerholdings.com. During our prepared remarks, we will refer to the acquisition of Spectrum's global battery and portable lighting products business as Spectrum acquisition or the acquisition of the Spectrum business. Information concerning our category and market share discussed on this call relates to markets where we compete and are based on estimates using Energizer's internal data, data from industry analysis, and adjustments that we believe to be reasonable. Investors should review the risk factors in our Form 10-K, 10-Q and other SEC filings for a description of the key factors affecting our business. These risks may cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. We do not undertake to update these forward-looking statements. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Alan.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Jackie, and good morning, everyone. In the quarter, Energizer continued to execute against its strategic priorities with strong organic revenue growth. We also made progress toward closing our acquisition of the Spectrum business and we added scale to our auto care appearance business with our acquisition of Nu Finish. As announced in our earnings release this morning, our team delivered solid results in the third quarter, continuing our momentum from the start of the year. Organic revenue was up 5.3% due primarily to volume and distribution gains, continued pricing favorability, and the carryover benefits of our portfolio optimization. Gross margins, excluding unusuals, increased 210 basis points versus the prior year. This was due to lapping our prior year portfolio optimization investment and the impact of unfavorable pricing, mix and foreign currency. Organic revenue growth and gross margin expansion resulted in adjusted net earnings per share of $0.54. And adjusted free cash flow in the quarter was $41 million, an increase of $20 million versus the prior year, primarily due to improved working capital. On a year-to-date basis, adjusted free cash flow is $194 million, up $34 million above the prior year as improvements in working capital were partially offset by lower proceeds from asset sales. These results were achieved by continuing to focus on executing against our three strategic priorities: leading with innovation, operating with excellence, and driving productivity gains. Innovation is a key component of our strategy. During the quarter, we continued to realize the benefits of our portfolio optimization to simplify the category and make the world's longest-lasting AA batteries, Energizer Ultimate Lithium, more visible and accessible to consumers. Our innovation pipeline also remains strong across our business as we continue to invest behind both product performance and improve shopper experiences. We also continue to remain focused…

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Alan, and good morning, everyone. I'll discuss the financial results for the third quarter, including providing detail on net sales and gross margins, and I'll provide an update to our outlook for fiscal year 2018. For the quarter, adjusted earnings per share was $0.54, up 26% compared to $0.43 in the prior year third quarter. The current quarter benefited from strong top line growth, improved margins, and the benefit of a lower tax rate. I would note the benefit from currency moderated during the quarter versus our expectations at the end of last quarter as the U.S. dollar strengthened against nearly all currencies. Total net sales for the quarter increased $21 million or 5.6% to $393 million. Excluding the favorable currency impact of $1 million, organic revenue grew 5.3%, driven by 3.5% improvement from new distribution gains in both geographic segments and increased space at existing customers; 1.3% contributions from favorable pricing actions; and 0.8% benefit from our portfolio realignment initiated in the back half of fiscal 2017. These amounts were offset by a negative 30-basis-point impact from lapping the divestiture of the ASI business in May 2017. This will be the last quarter this divesture creates a negative comparison. While we increased our space at existing customer, including non-measured channels, retail inventory levels continue to be at normalized levels. Looking at revenues by segment, in the Americas, reported net sales grew by 5.6%, which included organic revenue growth of 6.7% attributed to distribution gains, favorable pricing, the benefit of our portfolio optimization and improvements. The key beneficiary of the portfolio realignment, lithium, continues to grow with value sales up 46% and volume up 91%. As expected, the rate of growth will begin to moderate as we lap the initial execution of our portfolio realignment in the back half…

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Tim. Our strong results for the nine months is the result of our continued focus on our strategic priorities and strong execution. As we continue to work towards closing and integration of the Spectrum business, we are confident that the addition of Rayovac and VARTA will complement the Energizer and Eveready brands to build an even stronger foundation going forward. We're excited about the opportunities ahead of us and we remain focused on delivering value for our shareholders. Operator, we can now open it up to Q&A.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. And our first question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hey. Good morning, guys.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Morning, Dara.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Morning, Dara. Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: So, first, just a couple of detailed questions. The unchanged full year guidance includes the worst currency outlook, so yet you've kept your full year EPS guidance. So, on an underlying basis something offsets the FX impact. Can you give me a bit more detail on what's driving that? I assume maybe you're more favorable within the unchanged gross margin and org sales ranges but any clarity there would be helpful. And then, second, with the moderating FX outlook you mentioned in the back half, can you give us a rough idea of what type of EPS impact you'd see in fiscal 2019 based on where we are here today in terms of current spot rates and any hedging actions that you have in place?

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Yeah, Dara. I'll take both of your questions. So, yeah, the outlook does reflect the impacts of currency. And so, offsetting that, we see improved gross margin rate offsetting that impact, combined with slightly lower A&P spend and improved overhead, combined with a favorable tax impact. So, those four factors are really offsetting the headwind that we see from currencies. But for the currency, we would have likely taken our outlook up for adjusted EPS. With respect to the currency, so yes, it does become a headwind as we move into the fourth quarter, and that headwind will continue as we move into next year. Again, in November, we'll provide our outlook for fiscal year 2019, and I'd like to combine everything together and give you kind of the full view of the business for fiscal year 2019 as we normally do in November. Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Fair enough. And if I could just slip in one follow-up. You mentioned distribution gains in incremental shelf space at existing customers. Can you just give us a bit more color there? What's driving those gains? What type of magnitude should we expect? Did that happen recently so it continues for a few quarters? And I know you won't want to comment on Spectrum's U.S. business, but I guess I'm just wondering how much of that benefit is coming from others in the industry besides Spectrum Brands. I'm just trying to think about the incrementality to the total organization once the deal closes given we've seen some weakness in Spectrum recently. Thanks.

Mark Stephen LaVigne - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Analyst

Dara. It's Mark. I'll take that one. On the distribution gains, again, it's across the globe. There are some distribution gains that you'll see in the share numbers in the U.S. which you started to see the benefit of recently. We would expect those to continue for the coming quarters as well. In international, it's really spread across a number of markets with gains in France, the UK, and Germany, just to name a few. So, those are all distribution gains. In terms of the allocation of some of those, from the Spectrum business, again we compete against all of our competitors, and Spectrum is no different today than they were before we announced the deal. We're continuing to compete in the market as we always have. I would think some of those share gains probably came at a number of our competitors' expense, including the Spectrum business.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Dara, it's Alan. We're seeing growth not only in the deals we measure, we're seeing in the non-tracked as well both DIY, home center, and e-commerce. Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Bill Chappell with SunTrust. Please go ahead.

William B. Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Good morning, Bill.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Good morning, Bill.

William B. Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Hey. I guess first question on pricing. I would assume, if you're looking at pricing to offset tariffs, commodities, other things, that your – the goal would be to implement something October 1, prior to the holidays, or the next fiscal year. Is that right on the timeframe, and if that's the case, wouldn't you know by now kind of where we stand?

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

So, we're going to – Bill, it's Alan. We always look at whether or not pricing is warranted in our business. We do that independent of our competitors. We do look at a number of factors in the category. So, we're certainly taking into consideration any inflation hikes around commodity, certainly movement in currencies. There is certainly, in our pipeline, innovation and marketing news. Whether we attach pricing to that or not are discussions we have internally on a regular basis. And then we'll look at any other number of factors, including category dynamics that are currently occurring and overall macro conditions. So, the way to think about it is we take pricing in the category every year in different markets around the world. We do look at our pricing and promotion across our 140 markets regularly, and we'll use that information on going to take decisions that are going to be in the best interest of Energizer going forward on pricing. That's going to be an ongoing discussion with the management team.

William B. Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then back on the distribution gains and market share gains, maybe you could give a little more color on where distribution gains come from? You have pretty good ACV in the U.S. and around world. So, I'm trying to understand what new accounts you're getting into, and then should we assume that means you're pretty well-positioned, these are gains that will hold up as we go into the holiday season?

Mark Stephen LaVigne - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Bill, it's Mark. I think on the distribution gains, the way to think about that is expanded distribution with existing customers. We continue to make sure that we're fighting for additional space throughout the U.S. In the U.S., there's one large retailer that recently went through a shelf reset. We were able to gain some additional space, which is driving some of the numbers in the U.S. In international, the customer base tends to be a little more fragmented. So, there's not necessarily one customer that drives it. You're also seeing healthy growth for us in unmeasured channels with DIY and e-commerce as well. And then in terms of – I don't want to sort of forecast the holiday period. We're well-positioned. We feel good about our plans. We feel good about where we're sitting heading into the holiday. And at this point, it's all about execution. Obviously, that's something we'll talk about in November as we're giving 2019 guidance, because that will be the first quarter of our new fiscal year.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

And, Bill, as you'll recall, our approach is not only expanding our space in existing customers. It's getting new doors, and that's that availability factor that the organization is focused on. So, both in the U.S. and internationally in particular, you're seeing us expand those new doors as both customers expand new store count and we're able to pick up new customers. That's an ongoing focus for Energizer, and will be going forward as well.

William B. Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Got it. Thanks.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thank you, Bill.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Faiza Alwy - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hi. Good morning.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Good morning.

Faiza Alwy - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

A couple questions. The first one is, if you could talk a little bit about cost inflation and what you're seeing in the commodity environment. Like, we're seeing some steel prices are increasing and then EMD prices seem to have increased quite a bit. I think last quarter you said that you were 25% locked in for 2019. If you could maybe give us an update on that and how you are thinking generally about commodities next year.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Yes. So, as mentioned during the prepared remarks, for this year, we're locked. And as you indicated last call, we indicated we were 25% locked for next year. As we sit here now, we're in excess of 60% locked for fiscal year 2019. We are seeing some inflation in the commodities as we look forward to fiscal year 2019. We're not seeing the same level of increase that we saw in fiscal year 2018. But we look, and as we talk about, we lock in our requirements through forward buys out 12 to 18 months. And so, our procurement team is executing that strategy as we move forward.

Faiza Alwy - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Okay. Great. And then just if you could give us an update on what you – I know you guided to an adjusted free cash flow number for this year. What's the actual free cash flow going to be when taking into account sort of some of the costs encountered with the Spectrum deal? And then, I think, you had previously said that the cost to achieve the synergies related with Spectrum were around $100 million. Does that include some of these costs related to doing the deal? And maybe if you could give us a combined amount of what the total costs would be.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Yeah. So, what we have in terms of the cost to achieve the synergies, we indicated that that was 1 to 1.25 times synergy benefits that we laid out. In terms of where we stand right now for the current year, that adjusted free cash flow of $240 million to $250 million. Through the first three quarters, the acquisition and integration costs are approximately $41 million. You'd probably see a consistent run rate ex the gain that we had reflected in the third quarter. So, if you back out the $10 million of gain that we saw in the third quarter, our run rate on cost would have been roughly $25 million. I see something approximating that as we move into the fourth quarter, and then you've got the debt commitment fees and the interest that we have on the new financing moving forward. So, those would all be baked in to lower that adjusted free cash flow. We really do focus on the adjusted free cash flow because that's really the underlying fundamental of the business as we move forward.

Faiza Alwy - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thank you.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Wendy Nicholson with Citi. Please go ahead.

Wendy C. Nicholson - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Good morning, Wendy.

Wendy C. Nicholson - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

Two questions. First on the track channel data, the Energizer market shares look terrific but Eveready looks like it's been giving up some share over the last couple of months. And I'm wondering if that's by design. Is that reflective of the distribution change? But also can you tell us the impact on gross margins from that? Is Eveready a significantly lower gross margins, or is that helping your gross margin right now? Just help me understand whether I should care about that divergent trend or not.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Yes. So, Wendy, we've talked about part of the longer-term trend is trade-up and improved mix as we move forward. So, that growth you're seeing in Energizer versus the decline in Eveready is a positive given the higher-margin profile of the Energizer brand. So, it is having a positive impact on gross margin as we move forward. We haven't called out or quantified what that impact is, but it is a positive impact. That, combined with our continuous improvement initiatives, are helping us to maintain that positive – we've called it up 25 basis points on a year-over-year basis despite the headwinds of commodities, currency and transportation costs.

Wendy C. Nicholson - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

Perfect. Okay. That sounds great. But then my other question is on the antitrust review in Western Europe. I think when the approval came through in the U.S., we were all kind of, like, my gosh, that was fast. That's awesome. Europe seems to be taking a little bit longer. I don't know if that's just my interpretation, but I'm just wondering if there's any color you can offer. Is there anything that we should be worried about? Is there any specific thing that's being negotiated? And how quickly, after you get the European approval, can you close?

Mark Stephen LaVigne - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

Wendy, it's Mark. I'll cover this one. On antitrust review, again, when we announced the deal in January, we thought it would be by the end of the year. I think we're still tracking against that. We've made a lot of progress since the last time we talked. We're in active discussions with the regulators both at the EU as well as in Australia. We still expect to hit the timing by the end of the year. I don't think there's any reason for less optimism today than there was before. These things tend to take on a life of their own and they go through a variety of twist and turns. And so what we're doing is simply sitting down with the regulators, explaining to them why we believe this is ultimately good for consumers and why we believe that the transaction should be approved. And we still believe we'll be able to achieve that. It takes time to sit down and do a deeper analysis for them when there's two competitors that are merging.

Wendy C. Nicholson - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

But it's fair to say that you're not allowed at this point to have any conversations with any of the big European retail partners where Rayovac has – or Spectrum historically has done a lot of private-label work, right? You've got to get the deal closed before you have any sense for whether you're going to be able to maintain those contracts or any of that. Is that right?

Mark Stephen LaVigne - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

So, we are restricted in terms of conversations we can have with customers and we're making sure – I mean what the regulators want is for both of us to operate our businesses as they were before and that's exactly what we're doing. There are obviously communications that we have with customers about what they can expect. And so we make sure that we coordinate those communications between us and Spectrum, so that they hear the same message from both of us in terms of it being business as usual and what they can expect in the future. And then on your other question, Wendy, in terms of how fast could we be ready to close, I think, it's a couple weeks, two to three weeks from when you do get clearance is when you'll be able to pull it together and probably close. A lot of that will depend on where you are in a given quarter or a given month in terms of when do you want to actually close. But with the teams are ready, they're working together. Spectrum has been a great counterparty for us in terms of the cooperation we've gotten from them. So, in terms of once we're able to get the final regulatory approval, we'll be ready to close within a couple weeks and feel good about the position that business will be in.

Wendy C. Nicholson - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

Terrific. Fantastic. Thanks so much.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Wendy.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, everyone.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Good morning, Kevin.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Good morning, Kevin.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Alan, I wanted to start with the question on the long-term outlook for the global battery category and for Energizer. I look back at your slide presentation for the debt roadshow back in May, included some comments like "stable with improving trends" and optimism about growth potential in the industry. Can you talk us through the biggest factors in the end markets that are now driving this optimism? Are you prepared to provide a new outlook for the Street? Should the market be thinking more towards sustainable 2% to 3% organic sales growth for this company? And if so, what's the composition there between volume and price mix? And then I have a follow up.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Okay. Thanks, Kevin. Yeah. So, in our algorithm, obviously, one of our financial objectives is to grow at a rate faster than the category. So, that sort of answers the last one without quantifying it specifically at this point until Tim is prepared to give more guidance in November. In terms of the outlook, as you know, since separation, we've had an outlook of flat to down low single digits in the category. Since that time, we've seen the category value certainly up, driven both by pricing and some level of consumer response to the innovation that's been brought to the category. As we look forward, we're seeing stabilization in the device population. So, stabilization of devices as the conversion to battery onboard nears completion and maturity both in developed and developing markets. There is the potential, as you alluded to, for the category to outpace our outlook with some potential upside to that. The biggest drivers of that really we've seen consistently over several quarters now. They would be the growth of the Internet of Things. And that's again requiring higher-performing smaller batteries, and this in particular is in both the smart home, smart health-connected type devices. Second, we're seeing the continued miniaturization of devices and that's requiring smaller cell sizes such as AAA and specialty which, as you know, play well into our portfolio. And then, thirdly, continued demographic shifts. That's both, as an example, an aging population with a higher level of awareness around hearing loss and the need for and adoption of hearing aids to satisfy that requirement. That bodes well for the hearing aid sub-segment going forward. And then as you look at developing markets, you've got an increased presence of children in households along with a higher disposable income. So, there's a higher awareness and requirement for brands. And as a result, we expect that to help certainly in many developing markets. We're going to continue to monitor those trends over several quarters before we were to revise our outlook. If we see the trends as being sustainable, we feel we'd be in a better position to make a change to that call.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

And, Kevin, in addition to the volume aspects that Alan was talking about, the other factor is just if you look at the promotional environment. And I'll focus on the U.S. in particular. You've seen that environment be stable. So, latest 13 weeks, you're seeing percentage of dollars on promotion down slightly. You're seeing percent of actual dollar price decreases to be flat. And you're seeing AUP trends up. And so those are all positive. And if you look at Energizer, we're actually tracking favorably to those metrics. So, that, coupled with the volume, are the things that we're looking at as we look longer-term.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

And important to call out is in that particular data is you're seeing more full-priced displays on the floor, so there's less discounting that's occurring with that merchandise that's being sold through to consumers. And, as you know, that's a relatively good thing for the category, and that's improving sequentially quarter-to-quarter as well.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. All very helpful. One follow-up. This is probably for Mark. I hope you can sort of peck through these fairly quickly, and it pertains to online. So – and we have trouble getting our hands on the data. Where is AmazonBasics relative to Energizer's 24% market share that you cited? Where are you taking market share? You mentioned you're up 5 points year-over-year. Where is that coming from? What is online now as a percent of the battery category in the U.S.? I'll take a stab at this. Anything you can update us on with respect to the AmazonBasics supplier contract, even broad brushstrokes in terms of when that may be coming up for bid? And then, Alan, broadly, anything you'd mention with respect to learnings online with consumer behavior, demand elasticities, et cetera? So, thanks for all that.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Sure.

Mark Stephen LaVigne - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Analyst

All right, Kevin. Yeah. I think I have answers to all of those. So, overall, again, we've mentioned the category is up 30% online. Energizer grew 66% over that same time period and actually outpaced AmazonBasics, which grew at 59%. We settled in at a share of 24%, which you've mentioned. Amazon is at 29%. Duracell is at 12%. Percentage of the category that's going through e-commerce, to update those numbers, it's 10% tracked and it's about 7% of tracked and untracked. Still roughly 95% of the sales goes through Amazon. Basics is sitting in the overall battery category at roughly a 2.9%. Anything I missed on that one, Kevin?

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

No. That was very helpful. And then the other one, I guess, probably for Alan or, Mark, you can jump in, too. Any update on the AmazonBasics supplier contract, even broad brushstrokes in terms of when they comes up for bid. I suspect you guys would be very interested in it. And then also any learnings with respect to consumer behavior online, demand elasticities, et cetera.

Mark Stephen LaVigne - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Analyst

So, I can start that and Alan can fill in where I miss. In terms of the private label contract with Amazon, I'll leave it to them to answer that question. Obviously, if retailers want to engage in a private label discussion, we're happy to have it. As we've described our private label strategy in the past, we generally engage with that in a way that it will advantage our brands. But to the extent Amazon wants to have a discussion about a private label contract, we would treat it the same way we do with other retailers. In terms of learnings online, I mean obviously consumers are engaging with the category in different ways, depending upon the demographics. A lot of this is leading in the U.S. You also see some pockets in Europe with the UK and France and Germany where some of the consumer behaviors are changing ahead of some of the more traditional markets that you would see in other parts of the world. So, that does tend to be a modern developed market phenomenon. But there are learnings that you can have in terms of how do you engage with them both from digital advertising, how do you get them, what are the pack sizes, what are the SKUs, what are the pain points that consumers are experiencing. We do have a dedicated team that's constantly mining that data, applying that in the U.S., seeing if it applies in international markets and applying it there as well.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

And the only add I'd have, Kevin, is we're using a lot of data analytics within that team, look at how we continue to drive, increase conversion, and maximize the ROI on our investments online. Beyond that, I'm probably going to hesitate to have the team share too much more for competitive reasons because we'd like to use those as we continue to build our relationship and grow with Amazon.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Understood. Thanks for all the time, guys. Good luck.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Kevin.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Kevin.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Olivia Tong with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Olivia Tong - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks. Good morning. Just want to follow-up actually on online and Amazon. It's great to see that you're outpacing AmazonBasics online. Why do you think that's the case? And how long do you think you can – how sustainable do you think that growth is to be outpacing them? And can you talk through the incremental spending that you've done to support that growth both potentially above and below the net revenue line? Thank you.

Mark Stephen LaVigne - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Yeah. So, this is Mark. I'll kick that off. I think what we're doing is just making sure that we get the content and visibility and the pack size and that we're engaging consumers in a way that impacts their purchase intent online, which is a little bit different than what you do in brick-and-mortar. As we've talked about in the past, there are investments that you need to make. You need to make investments on the visibility. You need to make investments on search. Those are different than the investments you make in brick-and-mortar. But from a net bottom line profitability, we're agnostic because, again, the composition of the spend is different but you end up in roughly the same place. In terms of our success, again, I would say it's getting back to the basics in terms of content visibility and search. And then you create a momentum online where that actually enhances your visibility that they see online and that allows consumers to engage more easily and more readily than they have previously. I think in terms of overall our ability to outpace growth in the category, that's certainly our intent. That's what we've challenged the team to do without knowing what AmazonBasics or Duracell or some of the other competition will do online. We know that we have our work cut out for us, but we think our team is up to the task to continue the great momentum they have.

Olivia Tong - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Got it. Thanks. And then in terms of the outlook, just wanted to talk about the ranges. First on organic sales, obviously a fairly wide range which at the low end of low-single-digits would clearly imply a low-single-digit decline. So, just understanding the realm of possibility for Q4. I would imagine that you're not looking for a low-single-digit decline, but it's certainly something that would be within the realm of possibility based on your full year outlook. And then on EPS, in the last few years, you've historically narrowed the EPS range. So, why the decision to sort of keep it at a wider range at this point, and can you talk through kind of what gets you to either end of that range?

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Yeah. Olivia, as we move into the fourth quarter, I think, the thing that you're going to have to take into account is we're lapping the hurricane activity last year and distribution that we had last year. So, as we go into the fourth quarter, you will see a slight decline in organic as we're lapping that hurricane activity, because our current year does not include any activity for potential storm activity that may occur this year. So, that does get us to the low-single-digit organic revenue growth for the full year. Relative to the range, the reason we've kept the range where it is, is just as we moved into this quarter and as we look forward, currencies have been moving, and as I called out in the prepared remarks, a fairly significant movement. So, we're maintaining the range that we had before and we think that is prudent, but we are maintaining our outlook despite the headwinds that we've incurred.

Olivia Tong - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from William Reuter with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

William Michael Reuter - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Good morning. When you were talking about being locked in on 60% of your products for 2019, you mentioned that they were at higher levels, but you didn't say how much higher, either as a percentage or on a dollar basis. Can you give us any more color there in terms of what those prices look like?

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Yeah. So, in terms of our input costs, that's what we've called out, that we locked in on more than 60% of our raw material input costs. We haven't quantified what that impact is. We'll provide that as part of our full outlook for fiscal year 2019. And, again, I want to maintain that we provide the full outlook on 2019 and not just component parts of that.

William Michael Reuter - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Okay. That makes sense. And then just one more. Obviously, you guys have your hands full with the Spectrum Brands acquisition. In terms of innovation, I'm sure you're continuing to work on that. How do you feel about your pipeline of innovation for next year, and how would you say that compares maybe to the last handful of years?

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

I think our innovation pipeline is in as strong of a position as it has been in a number of years. We feel really good about our innovation pipeline. Obviously, it's something we can't discuss and reveal until the products have been presented and accepted with our customers. But both batteries, lights, and auto care have a really robust R&D and marketing pipeline that put us in a really, really good position as we go on under additional line reviews in the future. So, we feel really, really good about where we are.

William Michael Reuter - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Great. I'll pass to others. Thank you.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thank you.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Steve Strycula with UBS. Please go ahead.

Steven Strycula - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. Two-part question. So, first on the synergies, wanted to get some clarity for the $80 million to $100 million. Is that a net number of reinvestment spend, or is that a gross cost savings number? That'd be the first part of my question. Thanks.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Yeah. That's a gross number, the $80 million to $100 million and then the cost we indicated to achieve that 1 to 1.25 times.

Steven Strycula - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Okay. Great. Because we were just trying to think about what the accretion number you would be implying off of that $80 million to $100 million, like how much is price reinvestment, other type of considerations as you kind of think about our models building that. So, anything else there would be helpful. And then the second part would be, when I went through the debt filing, I noticed that the trailing 12-month results for Spectrum, the EBITDA run rate was lower than it was from last year. Is that reflective of higher logistics costs? Is it the revenue share loss that we're seeing maybe right now? Any additional color or language would be helpful from the way that that was put in the document. Thank you.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Yeah. So, the decline in the latest 12 months you see that there's really two factors that were driving that decline. One is, they launched a new hearing aid product. And with that, there was investment associated with that. So, they did a hard launch on that rather than a soft launch, so they took product back in. And so, that's reflected in the first half of fiscal year 2018. You'll see the benefits of that launch as they move throughout this year and beyond. So, that actually benefits us as we move half the closing. The additional factor that was impacting them was increased commodity costs. And so, those are reflected in that latest 12 months.

Steven Strycula - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then quick follow-up question on the non-U.S. part of the battery business. Can you just give us a quick fly over continent-by-continent as to what the battery dynamic is in some of those regions in terms of premium price points versus call it value? My understanding is that a lot of the non-U.S. markets are lower-gross margin in nature. And just for understanding, is there an opportunity to step up the brand and component in some those markets structurally? I guess where is the puck going versus where it is today in some of those regions? Thank you.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Hi. It's Alan. Yeah. So, the way to think about it in a lot of our international markets, in particular what we classify as distributor traditional trade markets, we have a dual-brand strategy. We have both an Energizer and Eveready brand that we leverage in those markets. In the majority of those markets, you'll find that Energizer has share leadership, significant share advantage because of our ability to leverage those dual brands, in particular when you think about our Asian markets: Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand. Many of those markets, for decades, we've been leveraging that dual-brand strategy. Our expectation is that with the broader portfolio going forward, we'll be able to offer consumers a much broader portfolio to be able to meet their needs and wants across both our battery and portable lighting businesses. We anticipate that will continue going forward. We see the strength and the need for that, both from a business standpoint and from a consumer perspective. You can anticipate that will continue.

Timothy W. Gorman - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Yeah. And if you look at the dynamic as you go around the globe and specifically private labels, so, if you look at globally, private label is roughly a 17% share. If you focus on North America, it's approximately a 12% share. As you move to Europe, private label becomes a larger component of the overall category with it being in excess of a 30% share. If you look at LatAm, it's less – roughly a 5% share. And in Asia, it's roughly a 6% share. So, higher level of private label in Europe. So you see that dynamic, and we've historically talked about pricing ladders that exist between premium branded products and private label, but you do see that interaction between those, the premium brands and private label.

Steven Strycula - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thank you.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

That concludes the question-and-answer portion of the call. Now, I would like to turn the conference back over to Alan Hoskins for any closing remarks.

Alan R. Hoskins - Energizer Holdings, Inc.

Management

Thanks, operator, and thank you for joining us on the call today and your continued interest in Energizer.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.