Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today to discuss our third quarter 2026 financial results. We reported quarterly revenue of $293.3 million and shipped 1.42 million microinverters and 129.9 megawatt hours of batteries. Our Q3 revenue included $85 million of safe harbor revenue. We exited the quarter with channel inventory a little above normal for batteries and micro inverters. On a GAAP basis, we delivered gross margin of 43.3%, operating expenses of 41.1% and operating income of 2.2%, all as a percentage of revenue. On a non-GAAP basis, we delivered gross margin of 45%, operating expenses of 26.7% and operating income of 18.3%, all as a percentage of revenue. Mandy will cover the financials later in the call. Our customer service NPS was 79% in the third quarter compared to 80% in the second quarter, while the average call wait time was approximately 1.9 minutes. Our AI assistant has been rolled out to all our homeowners worldwide and we are now rolling it to Enphase installers in this quarter to help them manage their fleet. Let's cover operations. In the third quarter, we shipped approximately 1.4 million U.S.-made microinverters and battery inverters from our U.S. manufacturing facilities and booked the associated 45X production tax credits. We also shipped 63.8 megawatt hours of IQ batteries from our Texas manufacturing facility in the third quarter. We offer IQ batteries that meet domestic content and FEOC regulations, helping lease and PPA customers qualify for ITC bonuses. Let's now cover revenue and regional performance. Our global Q3 revenue increased approximately 1% compared to Q2. Our global sell-through also increased by 1% compared to Q2. This fell short of our original expectation for sell-through growth of approximately 10%, which contributed to us delivering revenue towards the lower end of our guidance. Our revenue mix was 80% from the U.S. and 20% from international markets. In the U.S., revenue increased approximately 3% sequentially. Safe harbor revenue was $85 million in Q3 compared to $84.3 million in Q2. Our U.S. sell-through in Q3 increased by 5% compared to Q2, a more modest increase than expected, primarily due to the impact of interest rates on the residential solar market. On a year-over-year basis, our Q3 '26 sell-through declined 35% compared to Q3 '25 reflecting pressure from higher interest rates and the transition following the expiry of the 25D tax credit. Third-party market report suggests overall U.S. residential solar permits were also down approximately 35% year-on-year for Q3 '26. With our results in line with these reports, we believe we continue to hold our market share reflecting balanced exposure across channels, including TPOs. Our U.S. commercial sell-through grew approximately 50% in Q3 compared to Q2 as sales of IQ9 Commercial Microinverters ramped. Our current commercial volumes are mostly channel-based with larger direct opportunities emerging for 2027. In Europe, revenue decreased approximately 11% sequentially in the third quarter, while sell-through also declined approximately 12%, in part due to summer seasonality and a modestly weaker demand environment, particularly in France. Europe is evolving into a battery led market with approximately 50% of our revenue in the region coming from storage systems in Q3. In Netherlands, our battery activations increased 23% in Q3 compared to Q2, a counter-seasonal increase building on the 102% growth in Q2 versus Q1. Homeowner events have become a successful selling tool for us. In France, however, battery activations went down by 12% compared to Q2, while microinverter activations fell 24%, reflecting summer seasonality and macroeconomic uncertainty that may continue in the short term. In Germany, overall activations were down 5% as compared to Q2. Let's now cover the outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect revenue for the fourth quarter between $225 million and $255 million, including approximately $51.2 million of safe harbor revenue. For batteries, we expect shipments of 100 to 120 megawatt hours. We are currently about 70% booked to the midpoint of our revenue guidance. Our global sell-through has remained relatively flat over the first 3 quarters of 2026. We are not seeing any meaningful recovery in the U.S. demand. We do expect the global sell-through to decline approximately 10% sequentially in Q4, which is approximately $20 million. With Q1 '27 expected to be seasonally slow, we anticipate distributors will remain cautious about building inventory heading into the new year. Accordingly, we plan to ship approximately $20 million below sell-through in Q4 to further reduce channel inventory. While the near-term market environment remains challenging, I am very excited about the growth drivers we have established and would like to spend the rest of my remarks on how we see Enphase growing in 2027 and beyond. I will walk through five growth drivers. First, residential batteries; second, recovering our U.S. residential solar business driven by Propel; third, our commercial solar and battery business; fourth, bidirectional EV charging; and fifth, AI data centers with our IQ Solid-State Transformer. Let me start first with where we are today. In 2026, we expect that approximately 72% of our revenue would have come from residential solar, 21% from residential batteries and 7% from commercial solar, EV charging and other. Now let me walk through each of our growth drivers. Our first growth driver is residential batteries. Global adoption continues to accelerate driven by demand for energy resilience, self-consumption and VPP. In the U.S., third-party reports estimate Enphase's residential battery market share at approximately 15% to 20%. With approximately 50% share of the U.S. solar inverter market, we see a significant opportunity to achieve a similar market share in residential batteries over time. A key catalyst will be our next-generation IQ Battery G5, our fifth-generation product. This is because the installers have been asking us for a compact stackable AC-coupled battery that scales up to 30-kilowatt hours in a single stack with higher energy density, faster installation and an improved cost structure. Beyond new solar installations, we also have a substantial retrofit opportunity across approximately 3 million Enphase solar households in the U.S. many of whom could benefit from backup power, energy independence and VPP income. We expect the IQ Battery G5 pilots in the fourth quarter and volume shipments next quarter, Q1 '27. We are also seeing VPPs move from small pilots towards large-scale commercial opportunities. Major utilities and hyperscalers are engaging with us on programs that compensate homeowners for making their batteries available to support the grid. This is particularly compelling in communities near data centers where distributed batteries can help grow -- help manage growing electricity demand while providing financial benefits to homeowners. We expect utility programs to contribute to growth in 2027 with larger utility and data center-driven VPP opportunities developing in 2028 and beyond. In Europe, our largest near-term opportunity is the Netherlands, where approximately 0.5 million existing Enphase solar-only customers represent nearly a $2 billion battery retrofit opportunity. With net metering ending at the end of this year, 2026, the economics of adding storage have become increasingly attractive. We are reaching these customers directly through homeowner events, e-mails and webinars. Beyond our installed base, approximately 2.5 million Dutch homes with non-Enphase solar systems also represent another substantial opportunity. Our universal AC-coupled battery architecture allows us to serve this huge market, which we are targeting through social media campaign. We expect a strong growth in battery activations, which was seen throughout 2026, to accelerate further in 2027. We are also excited about Australia, where the median residential battery installation is about 30 to 40-kilowatt hour. Until now, we have not been well positioned to compete in this high-capacity market with our third-generation battery. Our Gen 5, or the fifth-generation battery G5, changes that. With up to 30-kilowatt hour per stack, combined with improved cost structure, G5 gives a tremendous opportunity to penetrate Australia's 12 gigawatt hour per year market. Putting it all together, we expect residential battery shipments of approximately 450-megawatt hours in 2026, and we believe we can grow this business approximately by 50% in 2027. With a highly competitive product, millions of existing solar customers, expanding VPP opportunities and access to new international markets we see a substantial multiyear growth opportunity ahead on residential batteries. Our second growth driver is the recovery of the U.S. residential solar market. Propel is central to how we see that happening for Enphase. The expiry of the 25D tax credit removed a meaningful portion of the cash and loan market, which has historically been the core of our long-tail installer business. In today's high rate -- high interest rate environment, a third-party ownership offering with 48E tax credit is a practical path for many of these homeowners. Propel, a prepaid lease offering from SolSource Solutions that combines Enphase equipment loan financing by TriBeam Financial and national distribution through Greentech Renewables, is purpose-built for long-tail installers. Propel is now available in 13 states and installer participation has grown to approximately 350 as compared to 290 in Q2. Weekly originations of Propel have increased to over 300 compared to approximately 200 in Q2 with a battery attachment at roughly 71%. SolSource recently announced $300 million in capital raised to support its growth, an important milestone in today's environment. SolSource is actively working to secure additional capital to support the next phase of expansion into new markets. We expect the growth in propel originations to translate into higher Enphase equipment sales as these systems get installed in the first half of '27. With growing installer participation, strong battery attach and opportunities to expand into additional states Propel can become a meaningful driver of our U.S. residential solar and battery business in 2027. Our third growth driver is our commercial business. U.S. commercial solar has been one of the most resilient segments of the market in 2026, with permit activity up approximately 13% year-to-date. We expect strong fundamentals to continue into 2027, supported by rising electricity rates and investment tax credits. The recently announced FEOC restrictions on new foreign-produced inverters create a significant competitive advantage for Enphase as a U.S.-based manufacturer with domestic manufacturing capabilities. Our 3-phase microinverter portfolio spans 208-volt to 480-volt applications, including the IQ9S-3P, our highest power 548-watt GaN-based microinverter. Beyond expanding our distribution channel business, we are pursuing several large national accounts that could meaningfully accelerate growth in 2027. We are also excited about our entry into the U.S. small commercial storage market with the IQ Battery C80, a fully integrated 480-volt AC-coupled system delivering 80-kilowatt hours of energy and 40 kilowatts of continuous power. The key application here is demand charge reduction, where the battery discharges during peak demand periods to lower electricity bills. It also supports time of use, solar self-consumption and grid services. Customers can scale up to 2-megawatt hours of capacity by combining 25 battery units, each with 80-kilowatt hours of storage. The battery will be manufactured in the U.S. and designed to meet FEOC regulations and qualify for domestic content incentives. We opened preorders in August and have seen encouraging initial demand. We expect to sell approximately 100-megawatt hours of commercial batteries in 2027. We expect it to do pilots in Q1 '27 and volume shipments in Q2 '27. Putting it all together, we anticipate our commercial revenue in 2026 will be approximately $30 million. We believe it could grow to over $100 million in 2027. Over time, we expect to target 40% market share of the U.S. small commercial market, which across solar and batteries could represent an approximately $250 million annual revenue business for Enphase. Our fourth growth driver is bidirectional EV charging, which brings Enphase directly into the automotive market. EVs carry batteries 5 to 10x the size of a typical home battery. With bidirectional charging, the vehicle becomes part of the home energy system, providing backup power, time of use optimization and VPP participation. Our IQ bidirectionally EV charging solution is built on our GaN power platform and will support both AC and DC bidirectional charging architectures. Our DC solution integrates the bidirectional inverter directly into the charger, while our AC solution combines our standard unidirectional AC charger with an additional V2X kit to enable bidirectional functionality. The DC solution will support both 400-volt as well as 800-volt vehicle architectures with up to 11.5 kilowatts of bidirectional power. We expect pilots in this quarter and volume shipments in Q1 '27. We are collaborating with three top global auto OEMs in the U.S. to bring these solutions directly to their battery EV and plug-in hybrid EV customers. We believe our bidirectional charging solutions offer some of the simplest, lowest cost installations in the market backed by our best-in-class quality and customer service. We believe this expansion into the automotive market also creates a compelling cross-selling opportunity as every EV customer could also become potential customer for Enphase solar and battery systems. For bidirectional EV charging, we anticipate a $15 million to $20 million revenue opportunity in 2027. We have a substantially larger growth opportunity in 2028 and beyond with the potential to generate over $100 million in annual revenue as they ramp. Combined with our cross-selling opportunities, we see multiple avenues for additional growth from this business. Our fifth and final growth driver is IQ SST, which brings Enphase's power conversion expertise into the rapidly expanding AI data center market. IQ SST is designed to convert 13.8 kV or 34.5 kV medium-voltage AC directly into regulated 800 VDC through our modular single-stage architecture. We are targeting approximately 98.5% efficiency, five nines reliability and sub-millisecond response times. By eliminating multiple power conversion stages, we believe IQ SST can fundamentally improve the efficiency, reliability, cost and simplicity of AI data center power infrastructure. We recently achieved a major technical milestone successfully demonstrating 13.8 kV AC to 800 VDC conversion in our Austin laboratory. We expect to demonstrate 34.5 kV capability very soon in the fourth quarter. We are also preparing megawatt scale full system demonstrations this quarter, both at our Austin facility as well as at a national lab with customer participation in both locations. These are important steps towards validating our technology at scale and operating conditions required by AI data centers. Our customer engagement is accelerating. Since our last update in July, our pipeline has expanded significantly to more than 50 potential customers. Of note, we are developing specific IQ SST solutions for the AI data center needs of two global technology leaders, a hyperscaler and a global AI computing leader. These collaborations are helping shape our product road map and system architecture. We remain on track for customer pilots in 2027, followed by initial commercial shipments in 2028. By 2030, we believe IQ SST has the potential to become a $1 billion annual revenue business for Enphase in the data center market alone. Three things stand out from our customer discussions. First, reliability is paramount. Our distributed architecture built on more than two decades of microinverter experience offers inherent redundancy and fault isolation, providing a powerful foundation for the reliability requirements of AI data centers; second, our successful 13.8 kV demonstration and upcoming 34.5 kV validation gives us increasing confidence in our ability to meet customer development timelines. Third, our U.S. manufacturing capabilities and supply chain readiness are important competitive advantages as customers prepare for large-scale deployments. We recognize the substantial engineering qualification and execution work ahead but we also recognize the magnitude of this opportunity, and we are executing with urgency to make this vision a reality. Let me conclude. We do not believe today's financial results reflect the full potential of where Enphase is headed in 2027 and beyond. We are working with determination to build a stronger, more diversified company with five powerful growth drivers, residential batteries, driving residential solar with prepaid leases, commercial solar and batteries, bidirectional EV charging, and solid-state transformers for AI data centers. What makes these opportunities especially compelling is that they are all built on the same foundation. Our world-class power electronics technology. Our unique single-stage power conversion architecture, our custom-designed ASICs, state-of-the-art magnetics, proprietary predictive control software, and industry-leading GaN technology. All of these give us the ability to deliver smaller, more efficient, more reliable, and lower-cost power conversion solutions across multiple markets. We remain confident in the long-term recovery of residential solar, while prepaid leases can help drive adoption in the near term via Propel, while -- and rising utility rates will help. So will expanding virtual power plants. And finally, the homeowners' growing desire for energy independence will support the market over time. But we are not waiting for that recovery. We are building new businesses entering new markets and positioning Enphase for a much larger future. We believe these opportunities have the potential to more than double the size of our company over time. With that call -- with that, I will turn the call over to Mandy for her review of our financial results. Mandy?