Mark Pompa
Analyst · Stifel.
Yes. Noelle, this is grounding, in fact, so to speak. So when you look at full year 2021 by segment, as I mentioned earlier, both Electrical and Mechanical Construction are operating above their 3- and 5-year averages. If you look at the back half of 2021 performance, that trend is not as consistent. So Electrical Construction's last 6 months of 2021 was actually below those averages. My anticipation, and obviously, when we did the financial modeling for purposes of 2022 planning, we're looking at -- and as Tony indicated, we're looking at margin performance consistent with really what it's been in the last 3 years. So that would put Electrical Construction around 8.25%, hopefully slightly higher. Mechanical Construction, that gets you somewhere around 7.75% to 8%. So on a blended rate, when you look at total Construction, it's just either slightly below 8% or up to 8.2%. So that's still a very good performance. When -- I think we all get jaded looking at the last few years and say, okay, that's this reality, the new reality. And as much as I think the EMCOR team would love that to be the situation, we don't control the market. And we're in a sweet spot on some things as Tony covered in depth, but that's not going to continue into perpetuity. But when you look at 2022 from a framework perspective, it doesn't look like we're going to see any softness, so to speak, with regards to demand and opportunities. When you look at our U.S. Building Services, the 2021 performance was slightly below the 3-year or 5-year average for -- once again for the reasons that we've already discussed. Clearly, supply chain difficulties have been the most impactful there. And because there's a fairly significant nonunion labor component to that segment, our ability to shift resources around is good. But if we have labor on-site and materials and equipment are not there for installation, because they're being procured by somebody other than the EMCOR subsidiary, we're still on the hook for payment for that labor, which is not obviously being very productive. So we continue to -- the project management, which is a center of excellence for EMCOR and has been for -- I don't want to say my entire history with the company, but for a long part of my history with the company. So I'd like to think that they're going to somewhere settle around that 5% range. And then as Tony indicated, Industrial, certainly, the last 3 or 4 years have been anything but steady for a lot of exterior reasons that we've discussed ad nauseam in prior calls. But their 3-year average is below 2%. I think we would be very unhappy if that's where the profitability of that segment resulted in 2022. But as we mentioned I believe in last call, as much as I like to be able to shoot back to the mid-single digits, you have to walk before you can run.