Earnings Labs

EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)

Q2 2020 Earnings Call· Mon, Aug 3, 2020

$860.66

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is [Lara] [ph], and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the EMCOR Group Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Mr. Haskel Kwestel with FTI Consulting, you may begin.

Haskel Kwestel

Analyst

Thank you, Lara, and good morning everyone. Welcome to the EMCOR Group conference call. We are here today to discuss the company's 2020 second quarter results which were reported this morning. I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Matz, Executive Vice President of Shared Services, who will introduce management. Kevin, please go ahead.

Kevin Matz

Analyst

Thank you, Haskle, and good morning everyone. Thank you for your interest in EMCOR, and welcome to our earnings conference call for the second quarter of 2020. How time has really moved on. And as I said in our last call, I hope you and your families are well, staying safe as we move through this unprecedented time. For those of you who are accessing the call via the Internet and our Web site, welcome, and we hope you have arrived at the beginning of our slide presentation that will accompany our remarks today. Please advance to slide two. This presentation and discussion contains forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial information. Page two describes in detail the forward-looking statements and the non-GAAP financial information disclosures. I encourage everyone to review both disclosures in conjunction with our discussion and accompanied slide. Slide three shows executives who are with me to discuss the quarter and six months' result. They are Tony Guzzi, our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; Mark Pompa, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and our Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Maxine Mauricio. For call participants not accessing the call directly via the Internet, this presentation including our slides will be archived in the Investor Relations section of our Web site under Presentations, and again, you can find this at emcorgroup.com. With that being said, let me turn the call over to Tony.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thanks a lot, Kevin, and I will be addressing pages four through six. Let me first start by thanking our employees for their extraordinary efforts in these continued challenging times. Our performance under these conditions is outstanding. Our organization showed the grit, resiliency, discipline, and innovation that we are known for, and we stayed focus on keeping our employees safe while executing for our customers. Turning to our financial results, throughout our discussion all my financial commentary disregards the impact of the impairment charge that Mark will cover in detail. We earned an adjusted $1.44 diluted share for the second quarter. Adjusted operating income margins for the second quarter were a strong 5.47%. Operating cash flow is excellent at $276 million on a year-to-date basis. We accomplished this in an environment where we had 15.5% negative organic revenue growth for the quarter just ended. Our Mechanical Construction segment performance was exceptional with operating income growth of 24% and 8.5% operating income margins. Our Electrical Construction segment had strong operating income margins of 7.2%, despite having a 21.7% decrease in revenues as they were more significantly impacted by the mandated shutdowns than our Mechanical Construction segment was, and further, the Electrical Construction segment is more exposed to the volatility caused by oil and gas exposure in this segment. Our U.S. Building Services segment had a very strong quarter with 5.6% operating income margins, despite a 9.8% revenue decrease. We saw demand improved through the quarter, especially in our mechanical services and government services businesses. We exited the quarter in a nice, hot, steamy summer with an even more competitive cost structure. Our Industrial Services segment is also moving ahead in a very challenged market. Our customers are cutting cost, deferring work, and fighting through a really tough market for them, and…

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Thank you, Tony, and good morning to everyone participating on the call today. For those accessing this presentation via the webcast, we are now on slide seven. Over the next several slides, I will supplement Tony's opening commentary on EMCOR's second quarter performance, as well as provide an update on our year-to-date results through June 30. All financial information reference is derived from our consolidated financial statements included in both our earnings release announcement and Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this morning. So, let's revisit and expand our review of EMCOR's second quarter performance. Consolidated revenues of $2 billion are down $310.2 million or 13.3% over quarter two, 2019. Our second quarter results include $50.2 million of revenues attributable to businesses acquired pertaining to the time that such businesses were not owned by EMCOR on last year's second quarter. Acquisition revenues positively impacted both our United States Mechanical Construction and United States Building Services segments. Excluding the impact of businesses acquired, second quarter consolidated revenues decreased approximately $360.4 million or 15.5%. All of EMCOR's reportable segments experienced quarter-over-quarter revenue declines as a result of the containment and mitigation measures mandated by certain of our customers, as well as numerous governmental authorities in response to COVID-19. This resulted in facilities' closures and project delays, which impacted our ability to execute on our remaining performance obligations in many of the geographies that we serve. The specifics to each of our reportable segments are as follows. The United States Electrical Construction segment revenues of $445.9 million decreased $123.5 million, or 21.7% from 2019 second quarter. In addition to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on second quarter revenues, the unfavorable variance year-over-year is partially attributable to 2019's all-time record quarterly revenue performance. Revenue declines in most of…

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thanks, Mark, and I'm on page 12 remaining performance obligation by segment and market sector. In short, we continue to work and have seen our small productivity improved for the second quarter, as it hit a low point in April for bookings and execution, some comparisons to consider. Total RPOs at the end of the second quarter, were just about $4.6 billion, up $365 billion or 8.6%, when compared to the June 2019 level of $4.23 billion. RPOs also increased a $160 7 million from the first quarter of 2020 reflectivity continued demand, as we are seeing for market -- continued demand we are seeing for our services and our markets. So, for the first six months of 2020, total RPOs increased $555 million or 13.8% from December 31. With all this growth, only $11 million relates to a tuck-in acquisition, so almost all that growth is organic. Domestic RPOs have increased $346 million or 8.4% just a year ago period drive mainly by our Mechanical Construction segment. We did run through some electrical construction project as we completed some complex work. However, we expect to backfill these projects, as we continue to see demand, especially in the high-tech and data market and high-tech for us means semiconductor and the datacenter market. Our U.S. Building Services segment RPOs dipped a little in the quarter as the segments project work was first impacted by COVID-19 building access delays and decision-making. As the economy opens up, combined with the hotter weather, we are getting more access to facilities and seeing the resumption of our work. Additionally, both of our Industrial services in EMCOR U.K. segments increased RPO level by roughly 15%, respectively from June 30, 2019. On the right side of the page we have on 12 we show RPOs by market…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] Your first question will come from the line of Brent Thielman from D.A. Davidson. Your line is now live, sir. Go ahead, please.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Good morning, Brent.

Brent Thielman

Analyst

Hey, thank you. Hey, good morning. Congratulations on a great quarter.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thanks.

Brent Thielman

Analyst

Tony, on the electrical business, I think I caught this at the end, it sounds like they certainly were more impacted by some of these market disruptions. Can you just walk me through, are you expecting most of those headwinds to abate as we move into the second-half of the year as we think about the outlook?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, look I think the core of our electrical business, which is commercial construction and institutional construction, and healthcare construction to continue to be fine and look like the mechanical business. In the electrical business that's a little bit different is we have a position in oil and gas. If you'll remember that's where four years ago we bought Ardent and Rabalais, it's in that segment. Ardent had a terrific year last year, and we will fight through those headwinds in the back-half of the year. Mark, anything?

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Yes, and Brent, the other thing is some of the major population centers that were entirely shutdown, we have significant presence on the electrical side. Some of those markets we also have mechanical presence, but more so electrical focus and the inability to be able to have our people either report to our offices for work, or certainly report to any of our customer's locations to perform any of the services was extremely difficult in the quarter, which is why you see the revenue and margin performance.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, the base business obviously is performing very well at 7.2% operating income margins, and we've had terrific performance really across the country, and like Mark said, they had to fight through the head end of shutdowns, but it will have overcome the compare on the back-half of the year in the oil and gas business.

Brent Thielman

Analyst

Okay, okay, appreciate that. And then, Tony, I obviously understand the headwinds on the Industrial Services business, just wondering if you are able to use some of that manpower and capacity maybe to benefit you in other ways or in other segments, sort of through these tough times right now?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, we marginally have -- look, first of all, in manpower we would use is the trade labor, and that's flexible anyway. We have used some of the trade labor to help us augment especially on the electrical side, some surging capacity we had on both the manufacturing and datacenter side, but that then normalizes. I wouldn't say to any significant manner, no.

Brent Thielman

Analyst

Okay, last one, Mark the impairment, the goodwill intangibles, was that effectively all of it associated with the Industrial segment, is there still some remaining on the balance sheet?

Mark Pompa

Analyst

No, there is roughly just over $100 million of goodwill remaining in the Industrial segment post the adjustment.

Brent Thielman

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Don't foresee an issue for the remainder of this year, but clearly that the business will have to continue to perform beyond 2021 to continue to support that record evaluation.

Brent Thielman

Analyst

Yes, understood. All right, guys, thank you. Best of luck.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thanks, Brent.

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Your next question will come from the line of Adam Thalhimer from Thompson Davis. Sir, your line is now live. Go ahead, sir.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Hey, good morning guys. I would also say congrats.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thank you.

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Thanks, Adam.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Hey, just high level on the back-half embedded within the guidance, how do you guys see seasonality playing out this year? Usually Q4 is a little stronger than Q3, just curious.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, I mean the headwind, I mean clearly reflected in our guidance is how we see seasonality playing out, and as I said, we see stronger second-half revenues versus first-half for our reporting segments, except for Industrial, but typically, Industrial typically has a good third quarter and even first part of fourth quarter. So, we don't see that happening this year. I think for the remaining reporting segments, as long as we sort of have the operating conditions we have now, seasonality should be about what it is. Mark, am I right?

Mark Pompa

Analyst

And I think Adam the only other variable is because we certainly experienced a fair amount of delays during quarter two, as much as we are able to control the pacing of the projects that we're on. I'm not quite sure, once we get through these revenue bursts to get caught up with that's going to do in quarter four. So, not all of our projects start on January 1 and end on December 31, as I'm sure everybody in this call knows, but I think with the compression of things that have to get performed between July 1 and December 31 of 2020, you may not see seasonality consistent with what we've experienced on a historical basis.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Okay. I think I get that. So basically, you're just saying Q3, Q4 in a model and kind of the same this year.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Except for Industrial.

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Except for Industrial.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Okay. And then, so on Industrial, so that we've seen that segment do in recent years as low as kind of $140 million in revenue and slight operating loss, is that kind of what you are anticipating here?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

I don't know if I've seen it do $140 million in revenue…

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Hey, Q3 of '17, it's a while ago on a quarterly basis.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

On a quarterly basis.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

On a quarterly basis.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

We have taken annual.

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Look, I think big picture, I think we'll make money on an EBITDA basis. We've got some goodwill and depreciation to jump over. I think profitability is going to be de-minimis on an operating income basis in the back-half of the year.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

And then, so with what's going on in oil and gas right now, Tony, I mean what's your thought on 2021?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

I have no idea right now. I mean one of the challenges we've had in that business over the last couple of years is the first quarter is always going to be better, right, and quite frankly, the last two have been okay. And this year was shaping up to be a good year. So, the question is going to be, let's say, we start seeing resumption of air travel, resumption of demand as you go from December, January, and February. What does that mean for refiner decision-making is maintenance. Are they going to keep running because they're finally making money again, and starting to get to better capacity utilization, or are they going to go through scheduled maintenance? Sitting here today, I don't really have any visibility on that. On the books, first quarter 2021 looks okay, but I think, boy, we're going to have to really see December before we know that.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Okay, understood. And then just lastly, I'm trying to rationalize this in my head, just the ABI kind of being as low as it has been for the past four months, but you guys talked about really strong bidding, and I just -- how do you guys look at that?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Well, first of all, we're a [laggard], [ph] right, I mean we would be bidding on projects probably more [indiscernible] with an ABI in February, March. The second thing is I think it depends where and how you're competing. I've always sort of with the ABIs wrong, right, it's consistently right or consistently wrong, it's self-reported numbers. My gut, I'm not sure how that was, if I were running my architectural firm or engineering firm in the month of April and May, I'm not sure how I reported numbers with a dispersed workforce to the -- AIA would have been at the top of my list.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Understood. All right, I'll let somebody else have that. Thanks, guys.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thanks, Adam.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. And your next question will come from the line of Noelle Dilts from Stifel. Your line is now live. Go ahead, please.

Noelle Dilts

Analyst

Hi, guys, good morning, and again congrats on a great performance in a tough market. So first, I just wanted to ask about how you're thinking about share gain? I've heard throughout earnings season a number of larger kind of higher quality players in the market saying that they think they may be gaining share because some of the smaller contractors may be distressed, just kind of curious how you're thinking about that phenomenon?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, we never think about that. Well, it's just sort of something that has ever been on our radar screen. This is a big, big market. We are the biggest of what we do, but there is a lot of competitors out there. I never sit around and worry about who is going to succeed and who is going to fail. Contractors -- there is a wonderful thing about this business, right, when things are well, we talk about contractors overextending themselves and running into working capital problems. When things are bad, we talk about contractors taking bad work, and then failing. Here is what I've learned over a long period of time. [Indiscernible] to what you do to convey to make money on the market that's available to you to make money, grow when it's responsible to grow in that local market, shrink when you need to adjust your cost structure, and never count on your competitors making a good decision in a changing market. All that being said, I don't think there will be a lot of contractors that are sizeable that say that $15 million to $20 million contractor that will necessarily fell in this market because of the PPP loans. I think they will survive, and the question is, what does that look like a year from now?

Noelle Dilts

Analyst

Okay, great. That's helpful. And I guess it's sort of a related question, but I think last quarter, you kind of talked a little bit about it just being tough when you're looking at M&A opportunities, kind of trying to get a sense of where the market is going, how to think about the risk with some of the targets you might be looking at, and then also the price that was kind of being demanded at that time. Are you starting to see things come into balance, what are you just seeing in terms of pricing in the market at the moment when you are looking at some of these targets?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

So, we tend to look through the cycle. We closed an acquisition today in our Building Services segment to augment and strengthen our Mechanical Services segment. It's a very good mechanicals contractor that focuses on retrofit and the interiors market. We have a pretty good service company there that we think long-term together, they'll be dynamite. Of course, we have large project capability on the mechanical side with our [indiscernible]. So this is a nice fit, and an important market with a company that we've known for a long time, and we can sort of look through the cycle and look through the market into performance, and it is performing very well. And we look at -- when we make a deal, we always try to look at a deal to say does this work for us, and does it work for the person selling the company. We don't want to be known as the people that are out there looking for a bargain, and if that acquisition exceeds our expectations, it became from superior execution, our ability to generate synergies especially on the revenue side for them to take more risks than they would have typically they have the capability that maybe they didn't want to expand their personal balance sheet to do that. I think there will be opportunities, but EMCOR in general does not look for distressed assets. We made it a few times in our past maybe we've ended up with them, but it wasn't intentional, and so, we're going to keep the tried and true thing we've done, look at the market, look at the position in the market of the person we're thinking of buying. If it's a very small acquisition, is it going to tuck into one of our larger acquisition-driven medium size acquisition to our larger subsidiaries, that's largely how we've built the fire protection business with two anchor acquisitions overtime and many, many years ago, and look to generate the right kind of synergies on the revenue side. And of course, do the cost takeout were responsible.

Noelle Dilts

Analyst

Thanks. That's very helpful. I guess one last question that expands a bit on what Adam was asking about. When you look out at 2021 on the non-res side of the market, you've talked about a lot of the high tech verticals and data center being really strong, and any other verticals where you're feeling kind of more confident, as you look out next year versus those where you might feel a little more cautious. And then, you spent a lot of time talking about the opportunity around indoor air quality and maybe some remodel, any way that you can help investors think about the size of that market and the opportunity?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Let's start big picture. I don't know what will happen in on non-res, and how what happened in second quarter will impact the overall numbers. You know whether it will be up or down once you correct for the second quarter. If the second quarter didn't have such an anomaly, maybe it would be down a little bit, but I don't know that, but with the second quarter being off as much, it could actually be up a little bit right on a real basis year-to-year. When I think about it, you know, what's likely to be challenged, right? I think just flat out commercial office space will be challenged except for maybe the renovation and the potential retrofit and replacement market. I don't think there will be a lot of new construction going on, although there are several projects that were involved with, I think will get built. It's funny, when I went back and looked at data, as we got rid of for the first quarter column today. We haven't been involved in a high rise commercial office building in any substantial way for four years.

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Greenfield.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, yes, Greenfield, yes, Mark, thanks, Greenfield. We are always doing retrofit work. We're always doing tenant fit work. So I think the Greenfield market will be more challenged. I think residential high rise was already starting to become challenged. I think that will continue to be challenged. I think anything around technology is going to do well. And that includes build office space. I don't think we're going to walk away from working in offices forever. I think it'll be a hybrid model, and that will require reconfiguration of spaces. And I'm not sure if people are going to be as excited about their open Office plans as they have in the future, because most people want to have contingency plans to operate much like we are today in our offices. I think that the healthcare market will have some stress for us potentially, as you see in our backlog, because spaces are going to be adjusted, and there're some big projects out there that we're looking at today. I think that the manufacturing/industrial for us potentially could get strong. It's going to look like an anomaly for a while, as our big food processors jobs move in and out. I think that will continue to be a market that will be strong for us. I'm actually fairly significant believer in onshore, and I think we're starting to see that happen. We've seen it over the last couple years, but I think it's not only going to be from China back to the U.S. I think there will be a challenge for Mexico to attract new business, and people build redundant supply here in the U.S. versus Mexico, because the [Maquiladora] [ph] story was a tough story. We hear from some of our customers and supply lines here in the second quarter with COVID, and they found how difficult it could be operate with the current government. I think that the institutional market will be a little bit slower than I think it will pick up as buildings get reconfigured. And in the education market, again, you're going to have to think about IAQ, IAQ then drive efficiency. And so this whole replacement market where we support, we do a little bit ourselves in a couple states, but for the most part, we support the heck out of the performance contractors. They could in fact see an uptick in their business late '21 going into '22. I think water and wastewater will continue to be a good market for us mainly because of we have location, location, location, a lot going on down in South Florida, and will be part of that. I don't think that hospitality will be a real area of strength for anybody here anytime soon. In fact, we can argue here at EMCOR we maybe just start blending out with our commercial sector. We just leave it off there for comparison sake. Is that helpful?

Noelle Dilts

Analyst

Perfect. Yes. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Sean Eastman from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now live. Go ahead please.

Sean Eastman

Analyst

Hi, guys, compliment your team on a strong effort and solid quarter. I was just curious I think one of the highlights here in the second quarter is just that RPO picking up sequentially considering this backdrop here, but I guess part of that is kind of helped by a lighter revenue quarter, and you're anticipating the revenue run rate to pick up here in the back-half. So I'm just kind of wondering about that second-half dynamic, you know, should we expect some RPO to sort of work down in the second-half. How should we be thinking about that?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

I'll let Mark jump in here too. Where I look at it is, it depends. We have several projects we're looking at that they get awarded in a rather significant, than you won't see that. We've also seen more stability in the small project activity. That is now part of our RPOs, so you'll look back many years that wouldn't have been necessarily in there.

Mark Pompa

Analyst

I think one of the things that will be a little bit of a headwind is we're completing one heck of a food process job right now, and much like we had three years ago, we had a little gap. We may have that again now. We have some very good prospects there. I think that book and build business underneath it is okay.

Sean Eastman

Analyst

Could there be an air pocket to develop because of decision-making in April, May tying back to this ABI number when architecture and engineers were working remotely?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, that could happen, but I don't think it's long-term yet. Our working assumption with EMCOR has been for a while that things don't get really normal until first quarter of '21, and we've been sort of configuring our business and working that way for a while. So, we're sort of looking around all those pieces. Mark?

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Yes. So, on the only thing I would add to Tony is -- amplified from Tony's commentary is that some of the revenue improvement we're looking at in the back-half of the year is going to be coming from the project work that's going to come off the maintenance because of the season -- the more normal seasonality and while that we are saying, and most of the geographies where we have mechanical services capabilities. And as Tony indicated, a lot of that work actually never actually goes into RPOs, just one of the quick turn nature of it. Conversely because we're looking at revenue to decline from the back-half for the year within our Industrial Services segment, other than the shop piece of that business as you know. That's all our workers time and material, so I never actually impacted the RPO number. So I'm not necessarily convinced that you're going to see the same level of sequential growth. As we move to the third quarter, but I think with all of the opportunities out there and what we are executing again. I would like to say there's going to be no worse than flat, it's not slightly either as we progress through quarter three and quarter four, and putting aside some of those larger projects when we talk about depending on the timing of one, if they are awarded and if they are awarded just when they come in to the next spot.

Sean Eastman

Analyst

Okay, got it, helpful. Next is just on the Construction segment margins, it's interesting to see both of them hanging in pretty well here particularly mechanical, the second quarter, just any update on the margin trajectory in those segments, you guys mentioned mix, completing projects, cost controls and a big thing here in the near-term, any reason why these levels aren't sort of sustainable or whether they are normalized margin ranges shouldn't be attainable, even into out year, even…

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

I would go to latter, not the former. I don't think 8.5% mechanical margin is sustainable for extended period of time. I think, we've had these in the past where they jump in and out, we always say look back 12 months, and that gives you every three or four quarters, it gives you a pretty good idea, how we're performing. We've said for a long time anywhere from 6% to 7.5% mechanically is pretty good performance. I guess we ticked that up to 6.5% mechanically, which is pretty good as a baseline to seven. Anyhow maybe 7.5%, we are finishing jobs. These are going better than expected. Electrically, we've been performing at these levels for a long time, those sectors are led by people that really know how to cut cost when they need to, not, how to meter back in the cost, a lot of it happens upfront, right? We don't have big write-offs typically, may be we have them every three or four years. Usually, most of it's not our fault, and we do a pretty good job recovery sometimes. A third at any given time might be our fault, and so, we do a good job, avoiding badness. I always say margins are driven by and absence of that is an executing or good work when you have it. So that funnel upfront is very important and we have been very careful right now, on the kind of job we're selecting, and at the beginning of this COVID thing, people were like getting a little desperate, we then participate, and we've seen more normal fitting resume. So yes, longwinded answer to normalize margins, these are a little high right now for mechanical, but you know, I look back 12 months we are doing okay. Mark?

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Yes. I think, I see no reason that we are not going to continue to perform at our historical averages and they are really, if you even look at the last 36 months relative to our construction operations on a combined basis. They've been fairly consistent within 50 basis points. So the work that's remaining to be performed in our remaining performance obligations as margin profiles consistent with what you've seen us on, and we were going to continue to operate under our operational excellence program and continue to do what's best for a customer, so…

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, we didn't believe that, we would have put the guidance out that we did, right, I mean, and our major question mark in the back-half of the year really centers around Industrial, and maybe to a much lesser extent, as small project work, and Mark went through why we believe that will keep going at much lesser extent than what could happen with small project only because it's the valve they can turn on and off. Not anything we are actually seeing today. Just if things are really bad like that they did in April that valve we will turn off again. And we said that in our guidance, that's one of the caveats.

Sean Eastman

Analyst

Got it. I will leave it there. Thanks so much for the time. Really appreciate it.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you so much. And for your last question, we have one from Joe Mondillo from Sidoti & Company. Your line is now live. So, go ahead please.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Hey, Joe.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst

Hi, good morning everyone. Sorry, I got dropped off the call for about four minutes maybe just a little just a couple minutes ago. I am not sure what happened, but I wanted to ask about sort of the COVID-related opportunity in terms of air quality and work there. I know it's probably still early, but I am wondering what your thoughts are on how big off an opportunity that could be in terms of retrofit buildings for air quality.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, I would break it into two pieces, Joe. The first piece is what you are doing today to take existing systems and making more friendly for better indoor environment. I think when you add all that up at EMCOR, it will be a nice project, it will be a -- altogether, it will be a sort of $12 million to $20 million project with above average margins. These things are going to happen somewhere between $2 and $10,000 at a time, maybe $20 at the top under typical 100,000 square foot of space. That's sort of what they are. However, the longer term opportunity is okay, we need what we needed to do with the system we had. Now, how do we make sure that we have a better built space for the long-term? We do a lot of this on newer building. So, you are going to have to update the HVAC system and the control system because IAQ for the most part -- the biggest part of it is bringing in more outside air. I mean that's the first thing you could do, and it's actually one of the most effective things you can do. That works across purposes with efficiency. So, I believe that as you play this out over a two-year period, you are going to see the replacement market get stronger going from in the middle '21 and beyond. And it's already a pretty good replacement market because equipment is so much more variable and efficient today than it was even just 10 years ago. So, I think that's a second phase you will see. And then, I think of course, there will be added HVAC content and controls content in new builds. We are already seeing that, but you will see even more…

Joe Mondillo

Analyst

Okay. And so I guess when you take this sort of the -- the knit the opportunities together, how you characterize them is your best guess that's going to be more material, more in the longer terms in the mid '21 and beyond?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes I think '21, it'll add on to an already good summer. I mean in '20.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst

Okay.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

I think as you get mid '21 and beyond and things start getting incorporated designed, it will be more material. You won't necessarily see. You will just know you are doing more HVAC [count] [ph] in a building, or you'll see a more rapid replacement cycle. Things get replaced to 10 or 12 years instead of 15 to 20.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst

Got it. And then, I wanted to ask regarding the cost structure, was there anything - any temporary cost reductions in the second quarter that come back say starting in 3Q regardless of revenue?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, about half it will. In my commentary, I said I think about half of these cost reductions will be permanent.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst

And did you quantify the cost reductions?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, we did. We said $21 million actual versus the year-ago period, $28 million organic. So, I think if you do that, you would say we are picking up about $10 million a quarter give or take in ongoing cost reduction.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst

Got it, okay. And then, the RPOs that mechanical segment and then just one other question after this, but the RPOs there really strong, is that surprising just given the challenge in the second quarter just with the overall economy? And then also slowing non-rent space overall, or…

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

No, that was -- look, [everything] [ph] is slowing in our res space, if you have the right capability in the right market via larger contractors you can generate a positive result on your RPOs because of large projects. That is in fact what happened with our larger companies in the mechanical space. We have two or three of them that really had nice bookings in the quarter.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst

Okay. And then lastly from me, did I hear right that you said you do not expect any further share repurchases for the rest of the year?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

I didn't say the rest of the year. I said in the near term and that probably for us means Q3 as of today.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst

Okay, got it. All right, thanks a lot for taking the questions.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

We expect - look along those lines, if you take our long-term view of the world and we get into a more normalized operating condition, we expect to be a balanced capital allocator like we have always have been.

Joe Mondillo

Analyst

Thanks a lot. Have a great day.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thank you, Joe.

Operator

Operator

Thank you so much. And that's it for your last question. I will turn the call back to the presenters for the closing remarks.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Okay. Look, as I finish today, I really want to thank our employees and then the leaders of the -- of our associates and our employees. This has been an unprecedented four or five months here. And everybody has just put their head down, gone to work, kept focus on our employee safety, kept focus on doing right things by our employees first the best that we could, and then focused on delivering results for our customers and keeping things on track. It's been a terrific effort by our leadership team and has been very, very exceptional effort for our broader employee base. I think this is going to continue for the next four or five months, and I know that our team will meet the challenge and we will respond to what we need to respond to keep the organization moving forward in a positive manner. So, I am going to thank all of them first and thank our customers and of course our investors also. And we will continue to try and do everything we can to deliver good results for you. With that, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you so much. And again, thank you everyone for participating. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect. Stay safe and have a lovely day.