Anthony J. Guzzi
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets
Thanks, Mark. Before I begin, I'm on Page 15. I'm going to cover backlog by market sector. As I mentioned last quarter, the historical backlog figures have been adjusted for the discontinued treatment of the U.K. Construction operations. So as you look back, all the backlog associated with U.S. -- U.K. Construction operations are out. Total backlog at the end of December is $3.63 billion, we're up $290 million or approximately 9% from December 2013, giving us a book-to-bill ratio for the year of over 1.04. Even though total backlog ticked down a tick in the quarter, which I believe is more timing versus anything else, we continue to see bidding opportunities. And given the 2015 forecast I've seen and what our view is on private non-residential construction, we do expect backlog to grow in 2015, all things being equal. So I do expect, at the end of 2015, that our backlog will be greater than where it is at the end of 2014. It will likely not get there on a straight-line basis, but if you do the year-over-year, that's likely what it will look like. For the year, commercial and transportation backlog had increases of 16% and 62% respectively. And as I've noted previously, our commercial backlog is close to -- I think it was at the highest level in our history at 34% of total backlog, it's close, and it's comprised of projects, really, broad-based across the country and includes increases from not only our Construction operations, but from our Mechanical Services businesses, which performed project work alongside their service contract base and it's more energy retrofit and project -- small project retrofit work. In 2014, we had some major transportation infrastructure projects, and that has lifted the transportation backlog to over $700 million, which is its highest level since 2009. Most of the increase is in New York City, and much of that increase is in the Welsbach Electric subsidiary, which is a leading bridge, rail substation and infrastructure contractor in the New York City Metro Area. It has the skill and experience to perform such large and complex projects as the previously disclosed Tappan Zee project that we announced a couple of quarters ago. Given current bid activity, we do expect to be significant players at even more infrastructure work around New York, and Welsbach is one of just a few uniquely qualified contractors to do that work. Market mix has remained relatively constant through 2014, with commercial and transportation activity leading backlog higher and institutional, industrial work down a bit. Institutional should stay around current levels, I think. We could win another government JV, but as of now, we'll see when that timing happens. I do think industrial has a good chance, and here, we're talking broad-based industrial manufacturing. The Industrial segment is -- backlog attributable to shops, and I'll cover that in a minute. Industrial broader-based for us means food processing, data -- I mean, high-tech work, power plant work. And so we do our bidding on some nice opportunities now. We're in -- on the food process work, we have completed some of the engineering work, and so we do expect to see that growth throughout the year. When you go by segment, domestic backlog is up $307 million, Construction up $329 million or 14%, and Building Services down 29%. I think we've beat the government losses to death and so I'm not going to talk about that more now. However, as noted earlier, we did have growth in our Mechanical Services group, which really is a sign of nonresidential market strength as it continues to move upward. There's been a little shift in our construction backlog, in that some of our work won in '14 are longer-duration projects and should provide a solid base for not only '15, but going into '16 also. Industrial Services ticked up a little bit, that is the shop work at Ohmstede. And the field services group really is not a backlog business, it's a time and material business or unit price business. Now I'd like you to move to Page 17 and 18 where we'll talk about 2015. When we talk about backlog, that's the basis of a lot of what we'll do in '15. Now we'll talk about '15. Our guidance is out at $2.65 to $2.95 per diluted share, with $6.6 billion in revenues. We enter 2015 with our businesses performing well, a large integration on track in RepconStrickland and a significant restructuring in the U.K. behind us. We have an excellent foundation to grow our business, both through acquisition and organically. We do expect nonresidential growth of at least 3% to 5% in 2015. We should not have the revenue drag from U.S. Construction restructurings that we had in 2014. With respect to the oil and gas market, we are largely a downstream-focused company. However, we will have some small headwinds from the upstream challenges in our Construction business as we serve the office needs of those large E&P-focused companies. For example, we have had great success in the tenant improvement market in Houston. We'll still be successful, but there is likely to not be as much demand for that tenant-buildout work. Further, any impact we experience in our Industrial segment is likely to be focused in the newbuild heat exchangers, about 12% of the segment, as capital budgets adjust for large integrated oil producers. We have not seen that impact yet because backlog actually grew in the fourth quarter, but we may. We are starting to experience some turnaround deferrals. And I would call them scope to get to the deferral, curve and time [ph] to get to the deferral, as a result of the U.S. refining strike. And this has all happened within the last 2 weeks. Quite frankly, the first 6 weeks of the turnaround season was very strong for us. As of today, we do not believe that this work is canceled, but do believe it is deferred outside of Q1 and early Q2. It could go into the summer. It could go into Q3, and maybe the fall turnaround season will start up earlier as a result. Now let's look at the fundamentals of the market. We told you the 6 weeks of this look very good. In reality, it's because the fundamentals of the market are good. We've got good refining margins and high utilization. And so the question is, how do you move to the top end of the range? There's really 3 or 4 ways we can do that. Of course, we're always going to watch our costs, that's a given, that's a foundation that EMCOR is built on. We need a little faster conversion of our backlog growth into sales. And if we got a book-to-bill of 1.04 or 1.05 again and we were able to convert that better, we should grow in our Construction business and that's implied in our guidance. We could get a little more than that. 1% or 2% above that $6.6 billion is a big deal. Said simply, if we have stronger non-res growth that converts into -- stronger and non-res backlog growth that converts into stronger 2015 revenues, we can move to the higher point -- mid or the higher point of our earnings guidance. We need our Industrial business to continue to perform strongly. You saw what it did in the fourth quarter and for the year. We had a strong, and still do, a strong spring and fall turnaround season lined up. The strike is a bump in the road. However, for us to get to the mid to high point of our range, we not only need to be able to do those turnarounds, we need to augment with great specialty services like we have, like specialty welding and torquing. We need small project HVAC Energy Services work to continue to grow at double digits. And we continue to remain -- maintain and expand margins in that business. And we need a better Q4 2015 than Q4 2014 with respect to snow removal. And it would be great to have some heat this summer, especially after this winter, because we had none last summer. So it would be good to have heat, and that could be -- help us get to a better part of the range. So with respect to capital allocation, we plan on pulling all 4 levers in 2015. We expect to generate cash at least equal to net income. First, we always prefer, always prefer as a first choice is to invest in the organic growth of our business and we do. We always look for the right acquisitions to augment any of our existing segments and businesses. And we will always look for the opportunities that complement our capabilities so we can perform more work for our customers. And finally, we will continue to return cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Thank you for your interest. And with that, Polly, I will take questions.