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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the WellPoint conference call. [Operator Instructions] And as a reminder, your conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to company's management. Please go ahead.
DS
Douglas Simpson
Analyst
Welcome to WellPoint's Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Call. This is Doug Simpson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Presenting today are Joe Swedish, Chief Executive Officer; and Wayne Deveydt, Executive Vice President and CFO. Joe will start with an overview of our 2013 financial results. He will then discuss our ongoing implementation of the Affordable Care Act and other key business initiatives before concluding with some initial commentary around our outlook for 2014. Wayne will then review the fourth quarter 2013 financial highlights in detail and provide some incremental perspective on the 2014 outlook. We plan to provide detailed 2014 financial guidance at our Investor Day on March 21. Q&A will follow Wayne's remarks. During the call, we will reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available on our website at www.wellpoint.com. We will also be making some forward-looking statements on this call. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of WellPoint. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to review the risk factors discussed in today's press release and in our quarterly and annual filings with the SEC. I will now turn the call over to Joe.
JS
Joseph R. Swedish
Analyst
Thank you, Doug, and good morning. I'm pleased to begin today's call with a brief review of highlights from our stronger-than-expected 2013 results, which we previewed earlier this month. For the year, we reported earnings per share of $8.20 on a GAAP basis and $8.52 on an adjusted basis. Our GAAP EPS increased slightly from 2012 while adjusted EPS grew by nearly 13%. Both of these results compare favorably to our initial expectations for 2013. And our key operating metrics were consistent with those we discussed at the time of our third quarter earnings call. Operating revenue increased by $9.7 billion or 16% during 2013 to $70.2 billion, driven by the Amerigroup acquisition. Our 2013 operating revenue and adjusted EPS results are both all-time records for WellPoint. Our business mix also continues to diversify with 45% of our operating revenue now coming from the Government Business segment, up from 36% in 2012. 2013 was a year of preparing and investing for future growth across our company. Our results included significant investments related to the Affordable Care Act implementation and other growth opportunities, as well as the integration of Amerigroup. These investments, along with our ongoing provider collaboration initiatives, are setting the stage for a period of stronger top line and bottom line growth. We also generated robust operating cash flow of approximately $3.1 billion and continue to execute on our share repurchase and dividend programs. We repurchased nearly 7% of the shares outstanding as of December 31, 2012, for approximately $1.6 billion and paid $450 million of dividends. We're pleased with our performance, particularly considering the significant time and resources we needed to dedicate to ACA implementation. We entered 2014 with a strong foundation, and we look forward to the opportunity to serve a growing part of the marketplace this…
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Thank you, Joe, and good morning. My comments today will focus on the key financial highlights from the fourth quarter and full year 2013. I'll also provide some incremental perspective around our initial 2014 EPS outlook. Please note that the Amerigroup acquisition impacts the quarter-over-quarter and year-to-date comparisons as only 8 days of Amerigroup's operating activity were included in the prior year results. On a GAAP basis, we reported earnings per share of $0.49 for the fourth quarter of 2013. These results included net cost of $0.38 per share, reflecting an impairment charge of approximately $0.55 per share related to the pending 1-800 CONTACTS transaction, partially offset by net investment gains of $0.37 per share. Excluding these items, our adjusted EPS totaled $0.87 for the quarter, bringing our full year adjusted EPS to $8.52. These results were favorable to the outlook we provided in our third quarter earnings call. And as Joe noted, we're pleased with our 2013 performance overall. Medical enrollment grew by 145,000 or 0.4% sequentially to approximately 35.7 million medical members as of December 31. This reflected membership gains in the Local Group ASO business and in California Medicaid programs, partially offset by attrition in the Individual and National businesses. Operating revenue exceeded $17.6 billion in the quarter, an increase of approximately $2.5 billion or 16% versus the fourth quarter of 2012, driven by the inclusion of Amerigroup for the entire quarter in 2013. Operating revenue in the Commercial segment also increased from the prior year quarter. The increases in Amerigroup and Commercial revenue were partially offset by lower Medicare revenue due to the decline in membership. The benefit expense ratio was 87.8% in the fourth quarter of 2013, an increase of 50 basis points from the prior year quarter. I would note that the benefit expense…
JS
Joseph R. Swedish
Analyst
Thanks, Wayne. With that, operator, please open the queue for questions.
OP
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Josh Raskin from Barclays.
JD
Joshua R. Raskin - Barclays Capital, Research Division
Analyst
Appreciate the commentary around some of the exchange enrollment. I guess, just one point -- or I guess, 1 or 2 points to follow up. The first would be, when do you think you're going to have claims data to help support -- I know you guys are doing some of the data analytics and the forecasting. But when are you going to have actual claims data that would support what you think the risk profile for those members will be? And maybe how does that play into your '15 strategy around pricing? And then also do you have a sense of how many of those exchange lives that you guys have added so far, how many of those were previously uninsured versus how many are actually previously insured coming from other sources?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Happy to answer both of those questions with what we know at this point in time. Let me start with your question around when do you have claims data or know the risk profile better. Because of the delay in when the exchanges got rolled out, we would have liked to been able to say that we were starting to get some early data reads by the end of February going into March. I think that essentially gets pushed out about 2 more months further when you start getting what looks to be more of a run rate view of this. That being said, we get pharmacy data real-time and we get it daily. And so we are able to look at the pharmacy data that we have out there, along with the data analytics profiling we're able to do using our historical small group and Individual and the metrics we built. When we look at product selection, sex, age, the ZIP code, income levels, et cetera, running a small portion of that population through, the analytics would imply that, that coupled with pharmacy is aligning with our pricing right now. On your second question about how many are previously uninsured, we're not able to really track that yet. What we do know based on the screening that we have with the new applications coming in that approximately 80% of those were not previously insured by WellPoint. What we can't tell you though is what percentage was uninsured or what percentage came from the industry at large that was previously insured. But we do know that the majority at this point is not previously a WellPoint member.
JD
Joshua R. Raskin - Barclays Capital, Research Division
Analyst
Is California representative -- I know you guys have about 31%, 32% share on the exchange in California, so that's slightly below what your Individual membership had lined up for in that state. So is that representative? Is that a good way to think about it?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
It's a reasonable proxy. I mean, the size of California is a good proxy for our broader book.
JD
Joshua R. Raskin - Barclays Capital, Research Division
Analyst
Okay. And then just to confirm the MA membership. I think CMS has you down just under 70,000 lives in January. Is that consistent with what you guys were looking at?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
No. I would say -- our applications are coming in better than we had expected, Josh. While we weren't in a process of assuming down membership, I would say it's still early, but we're actually performing a little bit better than we had anticipated.
JD
Joshua R. Raskin - Barclays Capital, Research Division
Analyst
So you don't think you'll be down for first quarter. Is that the idea?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
No, I didn't say that. We'll give more guidance. I would just say that at this point, we're not saying whether we will grow. But we are feeling better about what we've been expecting regarding our repositioning of product.
OP
Operator
Operator
And our next question will come from the line of Justin Lake from JPMorgan.
Justin Lake - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: First question -- obviously, appreciate all the color on the exchanges. In terms of -- so it sounds like things are going pretty close to as expected. Remind us, did you -- you had targeted, I think, when you said a 3% to 5% margin on exchanges. Is that right?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Correct.
Justin Lake - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: And is that margin what's assumed in your $8-plus guidance?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
That's correct. We've assumed that we will achieve our targeted margin levels.
Justin Lake - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. So if there's downside to that margin, it would potentially be pressure on that number is the way to think about it.
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Correct.
Justin Lake - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. And then secondly, on the tax. Specifically, I know the $1.10 number you talked about there. But is the right way to think about that from an investor's perspective, Medicaid, it sounds like you haven't assumed you'd get, in that $8-plus, any of the states to pass through the lack of deductibility, right? So you've taken a very conservative approach there. Is that right?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
That's correct.
Justin Lake - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: So every state that makes an announcement that this is going to get passed through essentially flows to the bottom line dollar-for-dollar relative to the $8-plus number?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Yes.
Justin Lake - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. And then on Medicare and Commercial, the way to think about it is that's already been priced through. It's built into either the bids or the rates, so there's no real upside, downside at that point. That's all kind of baked in.
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
That's correct. It becomes then a function of what underlying trend looks like and what we're able to do to medically manage it on the Commercial and MA book.
Justin Lake - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay, great. If I could just sneak in one last quick numbers. You put in 500,000 exchange enrollment. Can you tell us how many of those have actually paid in your mind or what you've seen?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Justin, very good question. Let me first start off putting this in perspective. Of the original 1.75 million members we had at 12/31, a reasonable portion of that had a January 1 renewal date and the majority of that did early renewal or went into a grandfather product and we have full premium on that already. Relative to the 500,000-plus applications that we have, we are still getting enrollment with the January 1 effective date as early as this week for what they call phantom files that the various states or the federal exchanges found at this point. So it is really hard for me to quantify what has been fully billed and collected at this point since we're still getting files as recent as this past Monday for January 1. That being said, the vast majority of those files we received have been pushed through, enrollment cards have been submitted and bills have been submitted. And they have until January 31. We have collected premium on a majority of that, but we're not at what I'll call a vast majority yet.
JS
Joseph R. Swedish
Analyst
Justin, this is Joe. In the context of maybe giving a little more color, I would like to comment on the fact that we are pleased with how the situation is tracking regarding the exchanges. It's still early, but our preliminary data is certainly reinforcing our confidence in the strategy that we've implemented and that the investments that we've made, I think, are very wise in terms of arriving at the current state of affairs. We believe that we are well set-up to potentially serve an even larger part of the market in 2014 and beyond. And we believe also that because of the policy applications are higher-than-historical levels, our sense is that, again we are well positioned regarding the migration path to March 31, when enrollment does close out.
OP
Operator
Operator
And our next question is from Christine Arnold from Cowen.
CD
Christine Arnold - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division
Analyst
With respect to Medicare, I sense that you guys were thinking maybe, given kind of where you started out and all the leverage you have to pull, you could keep the profitability of the Medicare book kind of stable year-over-year. What is assumed in your $8-ish guidance, at least $8 guidance, in terms of Medicare earnings? And how are you feeling about the overall Medicare book?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
So Christine, while we'll give more details at our IR day, let me first state that our guidance did assume that we would begin to reposition our book even further, placing ourselves over both '14 and '15 to prepare for '16, recognizing we would have membership attraction, but we would go for margin retention and expansion. So we are expecting to at least maintain margins into the at least $8 number with the upside opportunity being for some further expansion. And as Joe commented earlier, we are starting to see even slightly better enrollment versus what our expectations would have been with those margin expansion.
CD
Christine Arnold - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division
Analyst
Okay. And then with respect to the health insurance being Medicaid, could you highlight for us what you're seeing and how that and the 3 Rs could affect the seasonal earnings pattern of EPS?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
So let me start with the Medicaid and how that's going, and then we'll talk about the seasonal patterns. It's early, but I would say that the dialogue continues to at least improve each day. But we're far from having this finalized and inked with our various states. Until we actually get a signed contract, we are going to withhold at least recognizing that opportunity. That being said, Kentucky has agreed to allow for the growth of the fee. They understand the need for a sustainable Medicaid program, and this is part of sustainability. But I do want to highlight that for WellPoint, we were not in Kentucky last year, so the fee does not get assessed to us related to Kentucky Medicaid in '14, but we will get that beginning in '15. So we have a state there. We have another state that we're very close to but still more to come there and a lot of work still to be done. But the industry is focused on this and the states are really understanding the need for a viable program requires this fee to be passed on.
CD
Christine Arnold - Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division
Analyst
Great. And quarterly earnings progression? That's does it for me.
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Yes, Christine, great question. To be candid with the exchanges and the timing and how that's rolling out, I'm more concerned about how that progresses. The reduction of the reinsurance down to a level closer to $45,000 versus the $60,000 for metal products both on and off exchanges also will influence that. So I think that -- let's wait for IR Day because I think I'll have a better feel, too, on some of that timing. We have a point of view today, but that view is going evolve quickly as these exchanges continue to evolve. And it's such a large amount of risk enrollment coming in that we really have to get our hands around the final volume there as we see it. So some more at IR Day.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from A.J. Rice from UBS.
AD
Albert J. Rice - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Analyst
Maybe first, you guys are indicating for '14 that you're looking at about a 50 basis point pickup in your medical cost trend of 6.5%. Is there any further commentary on how you're thinking about ACA is impacting that versus sort of a core trend?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
A.J., very good question. That is core trend when we talk about the 50 basis points. That is completely separate from the impact of the ACA, the adverse deviation we thought would happen to the book with a higher risk profile member, as well as an older member. So that is purely core trend.
AD
Albert J. Rice - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Analyst
Okay. And I mean, this is a little bit of a look-back, but I'm trying to understand what you're saying when you talk about the fourth quarter and seeing some -- an uptick in utilization. I guess, there's been debate about whether people would postpone care because they're going to get better coverage starting January 1 or pick up utilization because they might drop coverage. Can you flesh out a little bit more what you actually saw in the fourth quarter in terms -- around your utilization comments?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Yes. A.J., we had assumed that we would see actually an uptick in utilization, that we would not see a postponement. And the theory behind that, which was validated, was that as individuals began to receive cancellation notices, that there would be many individuals that would consider utilizing their services due to the uncertainties of what the new benefits may look like. I think what happened from our perspective though is that not only did they receive cancellation notices, but as the exchanges were not functioning properly in October and November, there's also nowhere to go to even compare what options would be available to them. So we actually saw in our individual book specifically in those markets that received the majority of the cancellation notices, that's where we saw a much more significant uptick in utilization in the book.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Kevin Fischbeck from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
KD
Kevin M. Fischbeck - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division
Analyst
Can you talk a little bit about -- you mentioned earlier that the small group dumping looks like it's not going to be an issue for 2014. Can you just talk a little bit about what you're seeing there and if you have any sense for whether this is going to be a bigger risk for 2015? Or with the delay of SHOP and just the way the exchanges are going generally, whether you view that to be the same risk for 2015 that maybe you thought a few months ago.
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Let me start with saying that there is dumping occurring for 2014. So the question all becomes one of relativity. And what I would say is that while there wasn't an option in many cases where that member could go in October and November, that allowed to probably a higher persistency level than we were initially anticipating. That being said, our above $8 does assume still a level of dumping that occurs. And it also assumes a margin contraction within the existing small group book as that margin is lower than what we've historically managed to but is better than we would have saw in exchange margins. So as we go into '15, more to come. But I actually think a reasonable amount of the headwind that we would anticipate is going to come through our '14 numbers.
KD
Kevin M. Fischbeck - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division
Analyst
Okay. And I guess, I was having a hard time coming up with your at least $8 number when you provided it initially. And I think consensus is obviously ahead of that. And some of it is probably going to be as to how much we think you're going to click on the Medicaid insurance fee. But it sounds like most of the things that you've talked about so far maybe just have all been positive and maybe the only new negative being the $100 million of recent ACA regulation. Is that how you're thinking about it, that your guidance is basically the same as last time and would have been better if not for some of the recent changes in regulations? Or is there any other moving parts that we should think about between that? It sounds to me like the tone is much better today about some of the risks. And so I'm just trying to understand why the number is staying where it is.
JS
Joseph R. Swedish
Analyst
Yes, this is Joe. Thanks for the question. Maybe step back for a moment and just restate that as we've said, we expect EPS above $8 for 2014. And maybe I should even underscore greater than, become comfortable saying that at the moment. We do feel good about what we've seen thus far on the exchanges and we feel good about our growth opportunities more broadly in a variety of areas as commented on in our statements a moment ago. I think our execution with respect to how we've evolved as a company operationally and strategically is very strong. And the structural realignment that's occurred in the company is also bringing a lot more accountability and focus because we've got a lot of seasoned executive leaders that are really dialed in to the opportunities that are being presented to us. A couple of points I want to bring out in terms of what we see as positives. We're growing our ASO space and Medicaid membership nicely. And all of our proprietary work and the efforts that we've put in to the exchange environment certainly appears to be producing some upside for us that we believe will carry nicely into 2014. We recognize there's a lot of work to do regarding the challenges that occur from time-to-time. But I think the early read for us going into '14 is that we've got opportunities that we will be able to accumulate because of the leverage that we've created in terms of investments, as well as a variety of strategic positioning that has occurred. All that said, the changes that are facing our industry are, I think, admittedly very substantial, and it still remains very early in the year. So we're trying to be realistic about all these moving parts and how they're coming together so that we can provide you a much more clear picture of what '14 may turn into. But again, I want to underscore that we believe there is positive operating momentum as we see it at the moment, and we believe that it will continue. So altogether, I think we just want to underscore that something greater than $8 is definitely where we're headed.
KD
Kevin M. Fischbeck - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division
Analyst
Okay. That makes sense. If I could just fit a couple more. And I wasn't sure that the California risk share agreement, is that similar to how we're thinking about the ones that your peers have done? And do you have a total dollar amount that might be covered under that?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Short answer is yes to both parts of the question. We won't disclose the details of the contract, but we do believe it gives us an appropriate opportunity to earn a fair margin on that business up to a dollar amount cap.
KD
Kevin M. Fischbeck - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division
Analyst
Okay. Will you give that guidance at the Investor Day? Or is that something you're going to keep confidential?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
I don't know that we'll disclose what the dollar amount cap is because we really don't know what the terms of our competitors are. I would say that it would achieve our higher-level margins we would expect for our Medicaid book, which is very encouraging for us. And it provides some protection in the early years of duals. But it also is a program that has a cap at some point in time. And so we feel good about it for '14 for certain. And we'll see how it evolves in the out-years.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Matthew Borsch from Goldman Sachs.
MD
Matthew Borsch - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
Analyst
I just wanted to ask a couple of follow-up questions on the exchanges. The first, just to understand on the age distribution that you're seeing in the applications, does it look like you're getting, on balance, a younger population or I should say a more evenly distributed age population than the statistics are showing for the exchanges overall? I'm just trying to get -- because you're talking about getting a reasonable distribution there and yet the other reports on some of the exchange distribution, maybe not California, suggest that it's highly skewed to the older segment.
JS
Joseph R. Swedish
Analyst
Yes. Thanks for that question. This is Joe again. Obviously, we're tracking this as best we can given the development of the exchange marketplace. What we can say at the moment based on our data is that the application activity so far is very consistent with our expectations, meaning that the average age of the application reflects individuals that are close to what we anticipate in our pricing. And I think that's important to underscore. The actuarial value of the plan selected by those folks is also close to what we expected. So all-in, I believe because of having invested in some predictive modeling capabilities that allows us to carefully analyze the data, we believe that we've got an early read that is giving us insight into a risk profile that confirms that again we're tracking close to what we anticipated with respect to both pricing, as well as actuarial value of the plans that were selected.
MD
Matthew Borsch - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
Analyst
So it might be more accurate to say that the age distribution that's being seen in the exchanges overall is something that was less of a surprise to you guys given your modeling.
JS
Joseph R. Swedish
Analyst
I think that's a good way to put it, yes.
MD
Matthew Borsch - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
Analyst
Okay. And just also were you surprised by -- well, a recent survey, the McKinsey survey finding or implying, because it was a survey, that a very high majority of the exchange enrollment was coming from people previously covered. Does that -- I can tell you, I was surprised because of the other indication from HHS that 80% of the exchange enrollment was subsidy-eligible so that would've suggested to me it was more uninsured. I don't know you don't know yet. I'm just wondering what your perspective is.
JS
Joseph R. Swedish
Analyst
Well, maybe step back a little bit and look at the all-in enrollment as we now see it. And just roughly 0.5 million applications for Individual coverage has been received thus far, and that's actually as of last week. What we've observed is that the majority have been from new members to WellPoint, which I think is important. Secondly, over 80% have come through the public exchange with a balance remaining off-exchange. And then about 95% of the people have applied online. So put all that together, about 2/3 of the applicants were subsidy-eligible. And I think we really don't know how many members came from the uninsured. We only know that they're new to WellPoint. So those are some of the data points that we've collected and we're trying to better understand the meaning behind those data points. And again I think we're going to learn more as we kind of approach March 31.
MD
Matthew Borsch - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
Analyst
Got it. Last question, do you have any read on the Medicaid expansion lives yet?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
The early read is encouraging. And I think at this point, the next phase though is actually getting those members officially enrolled and working with the states. I think the volume is probably larger than many had expected. And the woodworking effect for those that maybe don't qualify for the exchange but always qualify for Medicaid within the states had agreed to expand is encouraging at this point as well. So at this point, I would say that it's going to ramp up as the year goes through. But we think it only validates the strategic bet we've made in acquiring Amerigroup, and we're very encouraged by that.
JS
Joseph R. Swedish
Analyst
And also let me piggyback on Wayne's comment about the Amerigroup integration. It really has been a remarkable year bringing in what I would declare to be a very strategic asset for the company. We've commented already that I think our accretion targets are on track. But more importantly, I think with respect to our engagement in the markets, it's an incredibly growing space that we're extremely well positioned to serve in multiple states with some new wins, as well as some projected outlook that suggests that we've got continued upside in this growing space. So again I just want to underscore the strategic value as well as the performance that we've realized thus far point to many wins for us regarding that acquisition.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Ralph Giacobbe from Crédit Suisse.
Ralph Giacobbe - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: I want to first go back to California. Any update on the dual demo and maybe where you stand on rates there? And then similarly -- well, in that state, you talked about outperformance, I think, in the release in the California Medicaid book. Any specific commentary there?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Let me first start off by saying that we were selected to participate in 3 counties in California, Santa Clara and Alameda, and then as a subcontractor in L.A. County. We are in, at this point. So we've worked with rates. We've got contracts inked in 2 of the 3 counties. We're very close to finalizing the third at this point. But we are planning to participate. I think it's fair to say that there's a lot of uncertainty still. But I think we've got within striking distance on rates. And the contract that we have with the state that provides downside protection we think will give us a unique strategic opportunity over the next couple of years to not only engage in the duals, but use it as a competitive advantage to learn and to grow our membership and our revenues in a profitable way in the out-years both within the state and hopefully use that experience as we bid on other states going forward.
Ralph Giacobbe - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. And then the outperformance on the California Medicaid book?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Some of it is as simple as we've got a darn good management team we picked up from Amerigroup. And this is what they do for a living all the time. And they brought some unique capabilities and perspective to helping us manage that book on what a Medicaid chassis needs to look like, not a Commercial chassis. And I think there's a lot of work to still be done there. I think Dick would tell you that as well. I think he's encouraged that the contract he was able to get negotiated for our company to give him even further time to maintain those margins while he continues to work on the underlying improvement needed in that book. But a lot of it is blocking and tackling with a good management team.
Ralph Giacobbe - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: And then just my last one. Can you give us the impact of the early collection of the industry fee in maybe the fourth quarter or maybe for the full year 2013?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Ralph, I want to make sure I understand the question. So we have passed on in our pricing the fee. The issue becomes the nondeductibility. But relative to the fee, our pricing has assumed in all of our books that the full fee will be passed on. The industry, as you know, has roughly an $8 billion fee being assessed to it in the current year. WellPoint's share of that fee is north of $900 million. We have fully passed it on in our pricing, but it gets into challenges of the nondeductibility. But that's why I think we mentioned earlier, too, the cash flow, core run rate cash flow we think will be very strong, but there'll be some unique timing issues this year between the payment of the fee and the collections of the fees.
Ralph Giacobbe - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Right. I just meant obviously you've already started to collect for the book that hasn't started on January 1, 2014, right? So there's some level of benefit because you don't have any cost associated with it sort of in the fourth quarter. Is it sort of just straight-up math of...
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
It's de minimis still. I mean, on the big screen, it's de minimis. The majority of the fee is going in on January 1.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our last question is from Scott Fidel from Deutsche Bank.
SD
Scott J. Fidel - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
Analyst
First question, just a couple more on the exchanges. And first, just how much of the $150 million in exchange investments that you were targeting for 2013 did you end up incurring? And then we'll be interested, Wayne, if you could just maybe talk about what type of higher morbidity levels that you were assuming in the exchange population. So clearly, you said that you're comfortable with where the pricing was relative to where the risk profile is coming in. But so interested relative to the existing population, how much more morbid were you expecting the exchange population to be in your pricing?
WD
Wayne S. Deveydt
Analyst
Let me first start with your $150 million. The vast majority of that ended up getting substantially spent in the fourth quarter. It wasn't all quite spent the way we would have anticipated or expected. I think we had assumed a larger level of marketing that did get slowed down because the exchanges weren't up and running as aggressively as we had anticipated. But the volume that came in, in the month of December and early January was much more than we could have ever anticipated. And so the level of staffing and overtime that we incurred in December specifically really is a reflection of using those dollars. So at this point, I'd say those dollars have been used. Relative to morbidity, let me simply state this. We assumed that the population on exchanges would be older than our book that we had within the existing WellPoint book, both Individual and small groups. So I would say, first and foremost, we assumed that we would have an older age group on exchanges than what we already have with large market share within our existing books. We also assumed that we would lose part of our existing book that was healthy in exchanges and that we would pick up a sicker population. So we assumed both what I would call an adverse selection for age and an adverse selection for health status. And I think in many markets, you can see where we are priced 20% to 30% higher in certain large metropolitan markets than our competitors, we're still winning market share, which we're encouraged by. But that price delta really is a reflection of a higher morbidity than we had historically experienced.
SD
Scott J. Fidel - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
Analyst
Okay. And then I just had a follow-up question for Joe, and maybe it's something you plan to probably touch on in more detail at the investor conference. But just interested in your comfort level at this point in the longer-term $90 billion revenue target for 2016. Looks like you're tracking towards $73 billion this year, and that's at a 4% growth rate. But you have the conversion of the large account to ASO, so maybe it's sort of a 7% clean growth rate. Would it sort of imply that you need to sort of accelerate to an 11% CAGR in '15 and '16? And just interested if you still feel comfortable that you can see that type of revenue growth rate acceleration in '15 and '16 to get to the $90 billion by 2016.
JS
Joseph R. Swedish
Analyst
Yes. I appreciate that portrayal. I think that maybe what I can do is begin with a quick summary of what I've witnessed thus far. As you know, I'm nearing the completion of my first year with the company. And what I have seen gives me a lot of cause for optimism. We've really focused heavily on a combination of both a strategic engagement, as well as an operational improvement focus that on balance, I think the 2 together positions us extremely well regarding the opportunities that you've just described that I believe we can pick up. Maybe I should underscore that, as I said earlier, the Amerigroup acquisition, I think, has been incredibly successful for us and has positioned us well in the government space, both Medicare, Medicaid and other facets of government work. Our exchange preparation that began prior years, I think, has created an incredible strong position for us as we've entered into the enrollment phase. And we'll certainly witness how that will play out by March 31. Our focus on duals growth, I believe, will certainly create opportunity for us. Medicaid expansion, and I think that certainly has a strong outlook. A great example there is our Tennessee award, which I think is a huge lift for our Medicaid focus. That, in Tennessee, will create, we believe, over the next few years, $1 billion in added revenue. And I think in the main, we're very well positioned regarding our engagement in all of our markets by way of increasing performance and provider collaboration, huge commitment for us in that space. We now have 60 ACOs, 80,000 providers engaged with us through value-based payments, which total something on the order of $300 million in payment stream. So when you put all that together, I think, and what…
OP
Operator
Operator
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