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Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 27, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you all for joining us for Equity Lifestyles Properties fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2008 results. Our featured speakers today are Tom Heneghan, our CEO, Joe McAdams, our president, and Michael Berman, our CFO. In advance of today’s call management release earnings, today’s call will consist of opening remarks and a question-and-answer session with management relating the company’s earnings release. (Operator instructions.) Certain matters discussed during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements in the meanings of the Federal Securities laws. Our forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement any statement that becomes untrue because of subsequent events. At this time I would like to turn the call over to Tom Heneghan, our CEO. Please proceed.

Tom Heneghan

CEO

Thank you for joining us today as we discuss our year-end results for 2008 and our outlook for 2009. The 2008 financial performance for both the fourth quarter and the year continue to reflect the stability of our core business. In an environment of extreme uncertainty, the strength of our business plan is the primary contributor to this solid performance. Our story is familiar because it has been so consistent. It is to own high-quality real estate locations across the country in areas where people want to be, the sun belt, retirement and vacation destinations along the coast, major lakes and rivers, and near major metropolitan areas, to attract high-quality empty-nester and retirement customers with a goal of long-term lasting relationships, and to use our geographic breadth, flexibility of product offering and myriad lifestyle options to create a robust operating platform able to meet our customers’ changing needs and lifestyles. Very simply our goal has been to find high barrier to entry real estate that we believe will be in demand over the long term due to the favorable demographic trend and use our operating platform to generate stable and predictable cash flow. In addition, our ability to react to the increased uncertainty has been a key driver of our 2008 performance. In this regard I’d like to discuss some themes that ran through our previous earnings calls and how they played a part in contributing to our 2008 performance. In late 2007 we commented about the issues in the single-family housing market. We indicated that the issues bore a striking resemblance to the meltdown in the manufactured housing industry that occurred in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and which is still impacting the industry today. As a result we expected a long, slow, and painful process, and proceeded…

Michael Berman

CFO

Thanks, Tom. For the first quarter of 2009 we anticipate a range of FFO per share of $1.03 to $1.13. We anticipate core NOI growth before property management to be approximately 1% to 1.5% over first quarter 2008 of almost $65 million. Core revenue growth is anticipated to increase approximately 1.5% to 2% over first quarter 2008 of almost $105 million. These assumptions reflect anticipated core MH revenue growth of approximately 3.5%. This growth reflects rent notices sent to almost 70% of our tenants. So far occupancy looks even to year end. Core MH revenues represent approximately 60% of total core property revenues. Annual RV revenues continue to show quarter-over-quarter growth of 5% or so. Due to seasonality, first quarter seasonal and transient revenues in the first quarter represent approximately 45% of our anticipated $37 million of seasonal and transient income for all of 2009. We expect around $15.5 million in seasonal and transient income in the first quarter 2009 compared to approximately $17.5 million in seasonal and transient income in the first quarter of 2008, a decline of around 10% to 12%. Total core RV growth is expected to be down approximately 2% to 3%. Core RV revenues represent approximately 30% of total core property revenues. On our last call we indicated that our expectations for the first quarter season was $11 million to $12 million in seasonal revenues. We currently have over $11 million in revenues for the quarter and expect further reservations. Each year we look to extend customers during the season. Our expectations for transients in this quarter is approximately $4 million, and we are a little over halfway right now in reservations. For the first three weeks of the year we have earned approximately $33,000 per day, about 1% ahead of last year. It appears…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Michael Bilerman – Citigroup. Michael Bilerman – Citigroup: This is David here with Michael. I thought we’d start with, could you provide a little bit of color on the inventory adjustment that occurred on the home sales in the fourth quarter?

Michael Berman

CFO

In connection with closing down the sales operation, we reviewed all the elements with that and we discovered that over time we had been making estimates with respect to rebate programs. You make a lot of estimates with respect to cost of goods sold and we found a receivable that we’re not going to be able to collect on so we wrote it off. Michael Bilerman – Citigroup: Is that something that could occur again? Is that sort of an ongoing adjustment process?

Michael Berman

CFO

There’s no more receivable with respect to that, and going forward we won’t be estimating what expected rebates might be we’ll just be calculating actual as we go. Over the years we’ve been purchasing hundreds if not a thousand homes in a given year, so there was a lot of estimation that was going on. We had all kind of different programs all kinds of manufacturers. Michael Bilerman – Citigroup: Moving over to the discussions you’re having with the agencies at the moment. Are you seeing any change in tone relative to their appetite for underwriting? Are you seeing any change in the terms of the underwriting? Anything you can disclose with that would be helpful.

Michael Berman

CFO

I would say that with respect to the terms of the underwriting they have been fairly consistent in our dealings with them. They continued to be more cost effective than insurance companies and banks with respect to spreads. They have increased their spreads over the last 12 months. We locked rate in the last couple of days that we noted in the press release. The spread was 400 over I would say last year it was more like 250, 300. Michael Bilerman – Citigroup: Michael, this is Michael Bilerman. Can you go over just in terms of the seasonality in FFO, if you look at where your guidance is for the first quarter relative to the year it would imply a much bigger ramp than you’ve seen I guess in the back half of the year. So if you’re at 103 to 113 in Q1 and 345 to 365 for the year you’re sort of in an $0.80 to $0.84 quarter for the second, third and fourth, which would be a much bigger increase over last year. I’m just trying to figure out what’s impacting 1Q and then what are you sort off getting to benefit for the rest of the year.

Michael Berman

CFO

Without getting into too much detail, I would say the first half of the year and the second half of the year provide similar results. The second and the fourth quarters are roughly the same. The third quarter you will see a jump as a result of incorporating in the Thousand Trails operation instead of lease payments. So that’s where you’ll see it with respect to seasonality, more so than we had in the past. The third quarter will be closer to the size of the first quarter than it had been in the past. Michael Bilerman – Citigroup: In terms of the way you’re booking the revenues that have Privileged Access.

Michael Berman

CFO

It’s not so much the way that we’re booking the revenues it’s just when the revenues come in. The sales activity peaks June, July and August. The usage of the properties peaks June, July and August. Michael Bilerman – Citigroup: You provide the Privileged Access breakout in the press release. How can we look at that and then understandably a lot of the property management fees, which were not broken out between the two, how do we sort of look at the fourth quarter PA relative to your former lease payment? And maybe you could sort of walk through if you were at $5 to $5.5 million a quarter previously, how does that sort of break out on a net basis over the four quarters?

Michael Berman

CFO

I don’t have all the Privileged Access broken out separately in front of me, but in the fourth quarter it contributed after an allocation for property management, and appreciate that property management allocation is a large one, but order of magnitude it contributed about $5 million in the quarter of FFO and the lease payment had been, I don’t remember what the lease payment was in 2007, but in the prior quarters it had been about $6.3 million when we were just getting a lease payment. Michael Bilerman – Citigroup: From a quarterly going forward, how does that –

Michael Berman

CFO

On a quarterly going forward, Thousand Trails is going to roughly mirror, again depending on the quarter, it will roughly mirror the lease payments, except in the third quarter it’ll be higher than the lease payment otherwise would have been, but it’s a little early to be talking about the third quarter.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from David Bragg – Bank of America Securities. David Bragg – Bank of America Securities: Your comments on 1Q operations were helpful, but I was just hoping we could take a step back and look at the full year. It appears as though core property operations for the full year was taken down about 50 basis points to a range of 3% to 4%. Could you talk about the drivers of that change?

Michael Berman

CFO

The fourth quarter expenses ended up being about $1 million less than we thought it was going to be, so I think I previously said we expect it to have around $161 million in expenses for 2009. It ended up being $160, but my budget didn’t change for 2009 as a result of that. That’s just the way the dollars flowed and so that $1 million ended up being 50 basis points on the core. That’s the reason why we put that in there. David Bragg – Bank of America Securities: So, no FFO impact–

Michael Berman

CFO

No FFO impact, right. David Bragg – Bank of America Securities: Moving on to the home inventory, as you look back at 4Q given your comments in October, how did the 55 new home sales compare to your expectations?

Tom Heneghan

CEO

I would say that we were pleased that we sold 55. Activity on the RV site continues. You still had some residue of demand on the new home front. We haven’t said we wouldn’t sell any homes, although our main mission is to rent because that’s the easiest path to gaining occupancy, but if a customer comes in and wants to buy a house we’re happy to discuss selling it to them. David Bragg – Bank of America Securities: How many homes did you rent in 4Q?

Tom Heneghan

CEO

We rented on a net basis about 70, 80 homes of new homes. David Bragg – Bank of America Securities: Sounds like that’s in line with the third quarter.

Tom Heneghan

CEO

Yes. I think it increased a little bit but not materially. David Bragg – Bank of America Securities: Finally, are you planning to acquire any new inventory this year?

Tom Heneghan

CEO

For 2009 on our business plan we don’t think we’ll need to buy any new homes but we do have certain markets and certain properties where we are a little bit more bullish and we may end up buying inventory there. Our focus on inventory, if we do purchase it, is on a very low cost product. We think we can get a one to two-bedroom 600 to 800 square foot unit for an all in cost of loess than $30,000, which is a very attractive product for our age-restricted communities. David Bragg – Bank of America Securities: Just generally on that product, what would we see for average rent rates?

Tom Heneghan

CEO

Right now we’re getting order of magnitude $800 to $1,000 it depends on where you are. California can be a little bit higher. Some properties could be a little bit lower but that’s in order of magnitude.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Bill Carrier – KBW. Bill Carrier – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: With the economy the way it is, have you guys seen any uptick in residents falling behind on their payments to you?

Michael Berman

CFO

Generally speaking, we have defaults and delinquencies that we look for in a number of different revenue streams and I would say that for the most part the trends are continuing. I think we mentioned on the last call we saw a little bit of a kick-up in delinquency with respect to the loans we make to customers purchasing frontline sales on the Thousand Trails side but, again, I wouldn’t call it a material change. We’re on the lookout for indicators of the credit crisis but we haven’t seen it so far. Bill Carrier – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: On the RV business, do you guys track the percentage of customers that rent their RVs as opposed to owning their RVs, and how have you faired in attracting those rental RV customers versus the past?

Michael Berman

CFO

In terms of renting RVs at a number of the properties, we have units for rent. It’s incorporated inside our transient income. I don’t know off the top of my head, Bill, whether or not that’s changing or not. I would imagine that the trend itself is probably not changing it’s a portion of the transient income.

Tom Heneghan

CEO

As it relates to the businesses that rent RVs to customers so that they can go touring around, no we don’t track that business separately. I don’t know, Joe, whether you have any comments as to what’s going on in the rental business of RVs. I do know that a lot of manufacturers who are sitting on significant amounts of inventory have pushed some of their inventory into a rental experience just to see if they can gain some liquidity. The one thing that is preventing any of that happening in a mass is the floor plan restrictions with respect to that inventory, but other than that, Joe, I don’t know if you have something.

Joe McAdams

Analyst

There are manufacturers, as Tom said, as well as larger dealers who are trying to utilize that inventory someway by renting it. So there is an uptick in the rental business but the rates are down because of the oversupply. Bill Carrier – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Last question, with CPI growth having slowed substantially, looking ahead to mid-summer when you guys send out your annual REIT notices for 2010, is there floor for rent growth or could rent growth conceivably even be negative if say CPI were to have negative growth?

Michael Berman

CFO

That’s a state-by-state and agreement-by-agreement type of analysis, but no. Generally it doesn’t go below zero and in many cases there are floors in place with respect to a minimum increase of say $5.00 or CPI whichever is higher, or a minimum increase of say 3% within the agreements we have with our customers. And without getting too much into it, please appreciate it that July of last year it was 6% and December it’s zero. With what’s going on in the monetary creation side who knows what it’s going to be come July of 2009, but yes, we are focused on it and it will have an impact on our revenue growth.

Operator

Operator

You have no further questions.

Joe McAdams

Analyst

Thank you for your time today. As always, if you have any follow-up questions with respect to our comments or our release, please feel free to call Michael Berman, our CFO. Thanks again everyone.