Frederick Augustus Ronald Peter Bell
Analyst · Mr. Larry Liu at CIBC Capital Markets
Thank you. Thank you, Stefan. And look, this is an overview of our portfolio, just as a reminder for everyone. And I think the -- one of the takeaways from this is not just how diversified we are in terms of our revenue base, but also a number of advanced projects that we have in the portfolio, a few of which we will talk to specifically later in this presentation. And then the very, very deep pool of embedded optionality with those approximately 200 earlier-stage royalties, where we often do not have a value attributed to them, but where a lot of those operators and our counterparties are investing, in some cases, tens of millions of dollars a year in terms of exploration and advancing those projects. So we know from experience, there is a huge amount of embedded optionality in those earlier-stage royalties that we do not get value for currently, but is part of the benefit of having this portfolio very diversified. So the two additions to it in that we'll talk to a bit just recently. And we've touched on Panuco. And again, this is one of the highest-quality primary silver development assets that is known in the market. It is going to be a very material contributor for us once it is in production going forward, and we are really excited -- remain really excited by the exploration potential. And there is 1/3 of the known veins that have been explored to date. And the more work they do, the more they find. And we expect the resource across the project to continue to grow. And if you look at those first 5 years of the mine plan, we see potential for that to continue over the 9.4 years of the life and then later extension. So we think that the feasibility study they put out was at a point in time, based on the resources. We expect that to improve over time. We expect to see more resources coming into it. And that 2% to 3.5% uncapped royalty on the project makes it a very material contributor for us going forward. In terms of key catalysts there, Vizsla waiting for their permit for the mine. And we have seen over the last quarter, two, I think, other permits granted in Mexico. So there is progress being made by other companies in the sort of pipeline of projects getting approvals. And there's also a plan for Vizsla to have enhanced security at the asset going forward. So we look to get approval from the Mexican Antitrust Commission, we have guided this quarter. We have had questions back and forwards with them. And coming over the summer as well, I think there was a bit of a delay getting some answers back from them, but we would anticipate getting that approval in the coming weeks, subject to not getting any further follow-up questions from them. So we have answered everything to date that we need, and we have shareholder approval for that and the court approval as well. So expect that to -- the final Mexican antitrust to happen in the coming weeks. And we'll be able to close the Vizsla transaction, which, as Stefan mentioned, is -- it was 3/4 equity consideration and approximately 1/4 cash that will be paid on closing. The next asset that we added to here -- and this was an existing royalty we had in the portfolio. And the initial investment was made at the beginning of 2025. We added an additional royalty on it. We also took equity in the company, which we don't do as often. This is a very well-known management team in Peru, a really top-tier track record. It is in a belt here where you can see a lot of the majors deposits are Freeport's, Cerro Verde to the Northwest, and you've got Anglo American and Southern Copper projects. And more recently, Chinalco just came in, in the past month or 2 as well. So it's a huge amount of exploration potential. They have done the hardest part in terms of commissioning the mine in the first half of this year, getting production at an initial 10,000 tonnes per annum and working on the plans for expansion to 30,000 tonnes per annum as well going forward. So an asset where we see cash flow from immediately. We've increased our coverage. We've also increased our total royalty exposure. And we think it's a top-rate management team with a very, very storied track record in Peru of actually operating successfully and executing. So we added to that in the quarter. And then maybe a bit of an update on some of our producing assets and some of our cornerstone ones. And there are a few updates out from Karlawinda. And you can see it generated about USD 3 million of revenue in Q2 and approximately that amount when you look at H1, similar, about $3 million. Two important updates from Karlawinda. The first is that the expansion of the mine is on track for completion in Q3, so this quarter. And as a reminder, they are taking that annual production, increasing it from about 115,000 ounces, 120,000 ounces to approximately 150,000 ounces per annum. And that expansion is expected to complete and commission this quarter. And then they will be at a run rate of about 150,000 ounces per annum and fully funded internally by Capricorn. They also, very importantly, post quarter end, they announced an increase both in their reserves and resources. So about a 30% increase in reserves versus last year and about a 48% increase in total resources as well. And just as a note, I think, look, it's using approximately, in U.S. dollar terms, an $1,800 gold price, I think, on that resource reserve update. So we continue to see material mine life potential, both through exploration and also converting the resources, which are approximately equal to the reserves as they stand today going forward. At Caserones in Chile, Lundin continue the exploration that they have been doing over the past 18 months. And in total, that will be about 100 kilometers of drilling at the project. And I think for us, there's a number of other growth initiatives underway, improving the cathode plant utilization. And we expect to see some updates on that exploration they've been doing over the past 18 months going forward. So that's been -- I think the best way to characterize Caserones has been continued incremental improvement since Lundin took majority ownership quarter-on-quarter, year-on-year. And that's tracking well, notwithstanding some interruptions in Q3 for weather that they have announced. But that's, as you can see, an asset that both Elemental and EMX owned and a material contributor now and going forward. In terms of some of the other assets, we had site visits and updates both at Timok and Leeville in the first half of the year as well. So we were able to meet with the management teams, get updates on the mine plans and how they're progressing. And I think positive on both senses in terms of what they're actually achieving on the ground and current production, as well as the longer-term outlook. And Timok is an asset that we have spoken to quite a lot in terms of the expansion there. And they continue to develop the Lower Zone. So as a reminder, they are currently mining the Upper Zone. They have a major expansion into the Lower Zone underway. And they will be mining that both through shafts and declines, and that will be mined in parallel with the Upper Zone. They also made a very important discovery a year ago that in Zijin's terms by itself classifies as a supermajor discovery, which is the MG Zone, Malka Golaja to the Southeast and within our royalty area. And they've put out an initial resource on that, and we expect that also to be another area -- production area for them in the future going forward. So very, very good to get our site visit there complete and see the progress they're making. And it's been a pretty consistent contributor for us in recent quarters. At Bonikro, this is a 4.5% NSR. So this has been a material contributor for us recently. And this is a capped royalty, so it will continue for the -- until approximately 2029, producing for us. Allied were going to be acquired by Zijin, and that changed post quarter end into an investment by Zijin in Allied. And Allied continued to operate -- I think at Bonikro, they've actually extended the mine life there. So they continue to work on it, and it continues to be a very important contributor for them and also for us through that 4.5% royalty coverage that we have. And then lastly, Leeville. And this is partial coverage. So again, quite important for us to get the site visit here, talk to the management team and understand how our royalty area, which is very similar to Royal Gold's Leeville royalty, how that royalty area fits into their mine plans going forward. And I think one comment on Leeville has been the consistent exploration success Nevada Gold Mines have had there over many years. And I think we saw that through the management update that we had. And I think for us, there's a multi-decade mine life coming through on that Leeville royalty, and that is before exploration that they continue to do that. So Leeville is -- it's a really high-quality asset for us with that management team there. In terms of the development projects that we talk to most often, and this is a highlight. I think the -- what you might take away from this is that these operators are investing approximately $800 million plus in these projects to expand them, to bring them into production, to develop them. And so that is -- these are serious counterparties. Genesis Minerals in Australia, one of the highest-regarded management teams. AbraSilver, which has been a huge success recently in Diablillos project. Mansa Resources, existing private mid-tier operator, and they operate two mines and looking to fast track Dugbe project into construction at end of this year, beginning of next. Fireweed with the Lundin there, who have done a lot of work progressing the project, and feasibility study expected on that next year. Viscaria, where they have started construction and looking to target that production coming in next year. And then Cactus, which was successfully acquired by Hudbay and feeds into their pipeline. So I think the important thing about our growth profile when we talk to it is that it is partly coming from existing producers, Genesis as an example, Mansa as an example, Hudbay as an example. But it's also coming from management teams with a track record with an ability to raise a finance, develop the project. And I think our growth profile is materially derisked versus a lot of peers. In terms of our track record, we've updated this slide now for Q2. And so as a reminder, it shows on the first line, what we originally acquired these royalties for. And in the dark gold, the -- what we have received from them to date, and then the current NAV. And we update this, try and do it on a quarterly basis. We've summarized on the right, some of our previous investments, smaller ones. But you can see there as well, really good returns and some of those assets still in production today, Mount Pleasant, Mercedes, Korali-Sud, and so continuing to improve those returns over time. But I think if you look at Karlawinda as an example, the second one on the left here. Look, when we bought that royalty, we had a view that the management team were top-tier in Australia, very long track record of successful execution. We had a view that their previous company, they built 3 mines in 5 years, and they also expanded all 3 of those mines in that 5-year period. And we had a view they were going to do the same at Karlawinda based on the resource and the deposit and how they built it. And we're seeing that now coming through. And we also had a view that the mine life would continue to grow over time, which we have seen. And so when you combine those factors, you get an awful lot of optionality through the royalty model and through the benefit of an operator like Capricorn being able to invest internally, hundreds of millions of dollars into a mine expansion and into continued exploration for the benefit of us as a royalty holder. The next slide here is our growth outlook. And as Stefan mentioned, we have been working on this assiduously, not just from additions to the portfolio. And we have made a number of royalty acquisitions over the last year that have added to this. And Vizsla, you can see there in the gray, that will come in into that growth profile. But we have done this alongside our adding to the team, building out the really, strength of our management team and the corporate side. And if you look here, our guidance for this year is about 17,000 to 21,000 gold equivalent ounces. And if you jump forward to 2028, we're forecasting that to be about 25,000 GEOs. And if you go to 2029, 2030, 30,000 GEOs, 35,000 GEOs. So as Stefan alluded to, we will be in a -- continue to be in a very strong financial position even post-close of Vizsla, and we will have the strongest organic growth profile the company has ever had by orders of magnitude. And that is not including existing assets like Karlawinda that will continue to add to their mine life. It's not including the approximate 100,000 meters of drilling at Caserones has happened over the last 18 months continues that we expect to add to the mine life there. And it's not including exploration across most of our other major assets. So look, I think it puts us in a very, very strong position, not just to continue delivering the financial returns that we are at the moment, but also to get that material uplift in terms of revenue growth and margins going forward. In terms of the next slide here -- and I'll just touch on this quickly and we'll go through into Q&A in a minute. But we wanted to give a highlight because it has been such a busy period of the catalysts that we have achieved and those that are still outstanding on the portfolio and corporate side. And you can see on the left, a number of the projects hitting material catalysts and a number that are still to come in the second half of this year and being guided to by operators there. And on the corporate front, a number of the initiatives underway to improve the company's position to strengthen our liquidity, which has seen a very material 50x increase from June of 2025 through to where we are today, and put ourselves in a position to continue to grow the company, improve liquidity for shareholders and improve visibility of the company going forward. The next slide here, we -- I'll just touch on quickly, but approximately USD 1.2 billion market cap. And as Stefan mentioned, about $74 million cash as of Q2 end before the $25 million Chapi investment and before the approximately $60 million cash that we will be paying to Vizsla Royalties on completion. We had some additional analyst coverage. Pleased to say, CIBC initiated on the company as well. So we have continued to get better research coverage, and I think raising our profile in the space. And part of that is that TSX uplist, the NASDAQ listing, the index inclusion. And we have a number of shareholders listed there on the right-hand side. And I think a number of those shareholders who have been shareholders in the company for a number of years, very supportive. And Stephens Investment Management, Euro Pacific, [ Extract Capital ], a few groups there that have been shareholders in the company for many years, very supportive. And we now have Tether as well since June of last year, who have been a major shareholder in the company, very supportive. Juan is on the Board as Exec Chair and continue to be supporting the company in growth initiatives going forward. And with that, I will come to the last slide here, circling back on where we are at the midyear point. And that is about $48 million in H1 revenue, 10,000 GEOs, as Stefan mentioned, and really on track to deliver a very good performance in line or above guidance for 2026. And with that, happy to run over to questions.