Maria Rigatti
Analyst · UBS
Thanks, Pedro, and good afternoon. In my comments today, I will highlight that we had strong third quarter results and have narrowed our 2022 EPS guidance range to $4.48 to $4.68. Before I move to that, there are 3 additional takeaways for today's call. First, we remain committed to delivering on our 5% to 7% growth target through 2025. Second, our near-term maturities are manageable. Finally, SCE's current operational excellence program, which we call Catalyst, is up to a strong start, and we have high expectations for the program. Let's move to third quarter results, as shown on Page 5. Edison International reported core earnings of $1.48 per share. Recall that in the third quarter 2021, SCE received its 2021 GRC final decision and recorded a $0.35 true-up. This results in an unfavorable year-over-year comparison for this quarter. I will highlight 2 additional key variances. SCE's earnings were driven by an increase in CPUC-related revenue in 2022 due to the GRC escalation mechanism and previously unrecognized return related to the customer service replatform project final decision. Moving to Page 6. SCE's capital forecast has been updated slightly, primarily to reflect the timing of the spending related to the utility-owned storage project. The project is now expected to be online before summer 2023 and, consequently, some of the capital spending has shifted to 2023. As shown on Page 7, our capital forecast continues to result in projected rate base growth of 7% to 9% from 2021 to 2025. This forecast incorporates SCE's current view of the request to be made in the 2025 GRC and other applications. With respect to 2022 guidance, as shown on Page 8, we are narrowing our 2022 core EPS guidance range to $4.48 to $4.68 from $4.40 to $4.70. Based on our year-to-date performance and outlook for the rest of the year, we are confident we will deliver results with narrowed range. I would now like to provide a brief update on our 2022 financing plan as outlined on Page 9. We continue to expect to refinance the last $300 million of parent debt maturing this year with new debt. Recall that we completed a $400 million refinancing in August. Combined, these will complete the refinancing of $700 million of parent debt. On the equity side, we expect that internal programs will generate about $100 million of our 2022 need of $300 million to $400 million of equity content. In April, we entered into a $600 million term loan maturing in April 2023, which provides execution timing flexibility for the equity content we identified in our original guidance. If we defer into 2023, we will incorporate any remaining amount into the 2023 EIX financing plan. All in all, we will share our 2023 financing plan on our Q4 earnings call. Turning to the current interest rate environment, I would like to frame the company's interest rate exposure that factors into our 2025 EPS guidance and address how we plan to mitigate the impact from higher interest rates. Page 10 shows Edison's debt maturities over the next 5 years. There are 3 categories to consider. The first category is the debt that funds 2017 and '18 wildfire and mudslide claims resolution. Pedro and I have been clear and consistent that SCE plans to apply for full cost recovery of eligible losses. SCE's cost recovery application will also include the interest on the debt that funds the claims payments. None of this potential upside is built into our financial forecast. The second category is SCE operational debt. The interest rate exposure is minimal as we updated the estimated cost of debt and preferred in September as part of our 2023 caused capital application. The third category is EIX parent debt. We are currently forecasting the incremental cost of debt at approximately 6.1%. To the extent rates go higher over the next several years, we have headwinds to manage. Across the organization, we are always looking for operational efficiencies underpinned by a continuous improvement mindset. Over multiple rate case cycles, the utility has a distinguished track record of implementing operational excellent initiatives focused on enterprise-wide efforts to improve performance and safety, reliability, affordability, customer experience and quality. This has also enabled SCE to have the lowest system average rate among California IOUs. In the current program, catalyst, the portfolio includes over 600 employee-driven ideas with capital efficiency and O&M benefits. These ideas and SCE's operations and major themes include work planning, procurement and technology as shown on Page 11. The expected benefits should aggressively increase as we accelerate implementation through 2024, further benefiting affordability for SCE's customers. Additionally, we evaluate one-off opportunities. For instance, we have been evaluating our real estate portfolio for efficiencies. Reducing our footprint and managing the facilities costs will benefit customers in the longer term. We have high expectations for the Catalyst program and the ability to deliver value for customers. We expect to identify additional opportunities in the core areas of safety, reliability, affordability and quality as part of a multiyear program. We look forward to sharing success stories from the front line as we go along. Moving to Page 12. We have provided you with our long-term EPS guidance rooted in the significant investment opportunities aligned with our objectives of decarbonization and electrification. In this regard, I will emphasize 2 key points. First, we have incorporated the current interest rate environment and updated other assumptions. Second, we have identified tailwinds and headwinds that may drive variability around these ranges and provided sensitivities where applicable. As you can see from individual details on the page, we believe that the combination of drivers and strong execution will deliver the 5% to 7% growth. Let me highlight a few areas. One is operational variances, which include the catalyst work that I've described among other items. Also, I would like to point out that embedded in our guidance is SCE's current ROE of 10.3%. In the 2023 proceeding, SCE has requested an ROE of 10.53%, which is strongly supported by SCE's analysis and the current interest rate environment. The 2023 proceeding also includes resetting the benchmark for the cost of capital mechanism to about 4.4%. If the bond index rates exceed the 100 basis point deadband, the mechanism would trigger, which in turn would result in updating the cost of debt and adjusting the ROE starting with the following year. For sensitivity analysis, we expect each 10 basis points of ROE changes EPS by about $0.05 in 2025. Additionally, the range around the parent expense we've shown you in the past also incorporates a range of equity content needs, up to $250 million per year on average, and the amount will vary with rate base growth. To conclude, we are reiterating our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate guidance from 2021 through 2025. My management team and I are fully committed to delivering on this target. That concludes my remarks. Sam?