Earnings Labs

eHealth, Inc. (EHTH)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 26, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the eHealth Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later there will be a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kate Sidorovich, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

Kate Sidorovich

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon. And thank you all for joining us today, either by phone or by webcast, for a discussion about eHealth, Inc.'s second quarter 2018 financial results. On the call this afternoon, we'll have Scott Flanders, eHealth's Chief Executive Officer; Dave Francis, eHealth's Chief Operating Officer; and Derek Yung, Chief Financial Officer. After management completes its remarks, we'll open the lines for questions. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded and webcast from the IR section of our Web site. A replay of the call will be available on our Web site following the call. We will be making forward-looking statements on this call that includes statements regarding future events, beliefs, and expectations, including statements relating to our strategy for growth in the upcoming Medicare Annual Enrollment Period, contributions from our strategic partner channel, our marketing efforts including our direct to consumer marketing initiatives, our expectations regarding online enrollment, customer volumes, cost of acquisitions and conversion rates, our expectation for submitted and approved applications, performance of our Medicare and individual businesses, excepted demand for short-term and non-ACA products, the priorities and growth in our small growth business, our expectation for sales force extension, our customer retention initiative, lifetime value for our short-term products and expected legislation, leading to the duration of short-term plans, all plans relating to debt financing, our revenue and earnings expectations for the third quarter and our guidance for 2018, including our guidance for total revenue, segment revenue and profit, adjusted EBITDA, corporate share service expensive, GAAP net income, GAAP net income per share, non-GAAP net income per share and adjusted EBITDA per share. Forward looking statements on this call represents eHealth's views as of today. You should not rely on the statements as representing our views in the future. We undertake no obligation or duty to update information contained in the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. We described these and other risks and uncertainties in our Annual Reports on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which you may access through the SEC Web site or from the Investor Relations section of our Web site. We will be presenting certain financial measures on this call that are considered non-GAAP under SEC Regulation G. For reconciliation of each non-GAAP financial measure to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, please refer to the information included in our press release and in our SEC filings, which can be found in the About Us section of our corporate Web site, under the heading, Investor Relations. And at this point, I will turn the call over to Scott Flanders.

Scott Flanders

Analyst

Thank you, Kate and welcome everyone. During the second quarter, we made significant progress in preparing our Medicare business for what we believe will be the strongest selling season in eHealth’s history. Our portfolio of strategic partner is now broader and more diversify compared to a year-ago, which should allow us to drive higher customer volumes and reduce execution risk. We also tested a range of direct to consumer marketing initiatives across direct response television, direct mail and digital channels. And believe these efforts will allow us to better optimize Medicare customer volume at an attractive cost of acquisition, adding to expected growth in the partner channel. Our second quarter accomplishments also include further improvements and the effectiveness of our sales organization; another meaningful year-over-year reduction in marketing cost per approved Medicare member; and a higher contribution from online enrollment, which we believe represents the future of the Medicare market and for which eHealth is uniquely positioned to become the market leader. In the under 65 market, we generated year-over-year growth in approved members for the first time in over two years, reflecting a new focus on short term plans designed to meet the needs of Americans who continue to face rising premiums and a limited selection of major medical insurance products. We plan to continue to emphasize short-term and other non-ACA products in the absence of a much needed legislative fix for the individual and major medical insurance market. Finally, our small group business had another great quarter with a number of approved groups increasing 25% year-over-year, while acquisition cost per application declined, reflecting better conversion rates. Second quarter revenue was $32.7 million. Our adjusted EBITDA was negative $10.1 million. GAAP net loss per share was $0.63. And non-GAAP net loss per share was $0.40. Cash flow from operations…

Dave Francis

Analyst

Thanks Scott and good afternoon, everyone. I’d like to add my words of welcome to Derek Yung, and note the strong impact that he has already made on the business in the short time since his arrival, he’s a great addition to our executive leadership team. Our second quarter financial results reflect the significant work being done to prepare eHealth for the upcoming Annual Enrollment Period, or AEP. We remain in a strong position to achieve our Medicare enrollment goals and overall financial guidance for the year. We also successfully captured growth opportunities in the small group market and the non-ACA segment of the individual market with our approved members on IFP and short-term products combined, increasing for the first time in over two years. Before I cover the financials in detail, I want to make a general comment on our second quarter results. As we discussed on our last earnings call, we expected a sequential decline in our second quarter revenue, reflecting the seasonality of our business. The actual decline was slightly more pronounced compared to our expectations, driven by two key factors. First, we undertook activities to streamline and optimize our Medicare telesales organization, including the closure of our Westford, Massachusetts sales center and aggressive investments to expand the sales organization of the recently acquired GoMedigap Medicare Supplement business, which impacted Medicare sales and enrollment activity in the second quarter. In addition, we made a conscious decision in the quarter to conduct extensive testing of our marketing strategies, especially in the area of direct to consumer marketing to optimize enrollment volume, product mix, channel mix, and acquisition costs in preparation for the fourth quarter selling season. The impact of these marketing tests was to marginally reduce Medicare enrollments in the quarter. Both of these factors resulted from purposeful…

Operator

Operator

Thank you [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Dave Styblo with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Dave Styblo

Analyst

Just want to talk a little bit about the 2Q results to start with. And so the revenue shortfall and I guess EBITDA and what the industry we’re looking for, sound like it was more of a self-imposed optimization process ahead of Medicare open enrollment. Can you discus, I know you touched upon a few of those items. But can you talk a little bit more about what you guys were doing, what you learned through that testing and how quickly you can put into action those things that you learned?

Derek Yung

Analyst

As I mentioned in prepared remarks, there were a number of optimization efforts that comes into play in terms of our Q2 execution. And really what two focus areas, as Scott and both Dave described, one around marketing and one around our sales call center. On marketing, we’ve been embarking on a shift in marketing strategy to move away from costly lead aggregators to direct consumer marketing and also partner channels. And in a quarter we did a number of tests to optimize our marketing in terms of volumes, product mix and channel mix and that impacted our volumes. In particular, we set very aggressive goals for the quarter in order to push the boundaries of what we expect out of those channels in preparation for AEP. The second point is around our sales and call center efficiency and operations. We as mentioned, had closed our Westford, Massachusetts call center and also invested heavily into our call center sales agents as part of our GoMedigap acquisition and integration. And those efforts drove our costs and also efficiency in the quarter to -- that also impacted our enrollments. So both those things are things that we consciously pursue in terms of preparation for the quarter, and we expect those to actually bear fruit as we enter into Annual Enrollment period.

Dave Styblo

Analyst

And as you go through and you’re concluding what you've -- those tests that you've done. Is it creating a shift in strategy and how the channels that you're going to go to market into, or other aspects that just could help improve the demand and conversions?

Scott Flanders

Analyst

So I’ll answer it this way, Dave. On the marketing side, we wanted to push the envelope on a couple of new channels on that DTC side, so specifically on the direct marketing the digital side of things where we were trying to find the perfect balance of driving the right volume at a very aggressively lower COA, that have the impact of constraining to a certain degree, the volume of customers that came into the sales organization. At the same time, as we were looking to trim some of the fat and specifically our least well performing of our three Medicare sale centers and exited that Westford facility, we ended up -- cutting it a little bit too close to the bone relative to production in the quarter. All of that is being from a production perspective is being right-sized right now relative to both in sourced and outsource production capabilities, and taking the learnings from those marketing tests to make sure that we are in good shape going into the October selling season. So we're able to flip the learnings that we've taken here into what we believe will be much better optimization as we get deeper into the second half of the year. And certainly, by the time the bell rings on October 15th.

Dave Styblo

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then in advance of that open enrollment. Can you talk a little bit more about the partnerships you guys have landed quite a few? And at one point, we knew a couple of the numbers, I think, for Union Plus, there's a captive audience was 25,000 seniors aging into Medicare a month and Union Plus -- an AGI I think was 15,000. So how big is your audience that you have an ability to directly market to at this point? And what have you been able to do to get things in order so that you can maximize those partner channels?

Scott Flanders

Analyst

The number of customers that we ultimately can outreach to is well over a million through all of these different marketing partnerships. Now, the question is how do you turn those potential customers into true leads and ultimately get them to convert. And that's where some of the work that we were doing on the marketing side was working to optimize some of these partner relationships as well. We expect the Union Plus side to perform better for us this year. We believe this new Gallagher relationship is going to be a good first step for us. But if you if you look at the breadth of the partnership channel for us, this year relative to where we were last year, I think the important point to make is the portfolio nature that we have been able to create this year relative to meaningful reliance on one or two partners last year. So we think that we've significantly improved both the risk profile and our ability to execute relative to the broader partner channel and take advantage of both the quality of customer and the attractive cost of acquisition of each of those customers through the partner channel than we were in a position to last year.

Dave Styblo

Analyst

And my last one is just on the IFP business, so continue to see attrition there, which I guess isn't surprising but it was -- I think it was down, membership was down 8% sequentially. There's a little bit worse than we were thinking would be. Again, is there -- I think this business is free cash flow positive for you still and probably still subsidizing the Medicare business. Wanted to know if that's still true? And secondly, is there anything else that you can do to stem the attrition here? Obviously, you're trying to work on the short term plans but sounds like you’re making some good progress there. But what else can be done on this side of the business to sustain the cash flows that are thrown off from this business?

Dave Francis

Analyst

We really see the model evolving where the mix shift is away from the ACA compliant plans, because of the high premium at 95 plus percent of the customers who reach out to us outside of OEP cannot afford an ACA compliant plan unless they have a full subsidy. And so we've been slow to react to that marketplace reality, that's why we were very encouraged by the success in Q2. We think that that's only going to accelerate as the duration is extended as expected to 364 days by the Trump administration. And with the mandate humbly going away January 1, we are ramping up our marketing. We want to be a lot more effective and efficient closing the organic search that we generate with the short term plans, because we were pushing every inbound organic search customer down the path of trying to sell their major medical. And we were just having exceptionally low conversion rates, because of the affordability issue. So we're seeing a mix shift here. We don't have a long life to these members it's about 2.5 months today, because the duration or short term is only 90 days. So we think that can easily double once we have the 364 days duration restored, which we're expecting a news of that any day. These are cash flow positive very quickly. The return on investment is not like Medicare with a two year payback period, it’s much shorter. So it's favorable from a cash flow and from an earning standpoint.

Scott Flanders

Analyst

And the only thing I would add, Dave, is that we were very pleased with the turn that we've seen in terms of enrollment activity with our new focus on short term. And we think that that provides us a lot of lever points to be adding additional products there as we refine our -- both our digital marketing and our overall sales strategy and that business, we're pleased with how that's performed so far this quarter as well. And again, this is a meaningful turning point for us relative to the downward trajectory that we've seen in that business. And we think that we're setting up for a lot more success than we've had in the past in that business, going forward.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tobey Sommer with SunTrust. Your line is open.

Tobey Sommer

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is open.

Can you start off by maybe giving us a little bit more color on what I think you described as the variance in the growth rates between Medicare applications and approvals? If same -- the factors that…

Scott Flanders

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is open.

The key one there was a higher mix of what called D-SNP, or dual eligible Medicare advantage customers. These are lower income -- called dual eligible because they can apply for both Medicare and Medicaid. And getting those folks into the right Medicare advantage product has a meaningful impact on those customers from both a cost and a care management perspective. They are also a little bit more involved from enrollment perspective, because you have to get both the Medicare and the Medicaid information to the carrier, the carrier has to process it correctly on the backend. And the result of the increased mix of that slightly more challenging to enroll customer, resulted in a marginally lower move for us to move from submitted application to approved application in the quarter. A couple of things that we are focused on the backend of our process is to minimize that fallout on a go forward basis, because this is a key market segment for us within the Medicare market. And we’re working with several carriers on specific plans to go out and help them convert more of those customers. But as related to this specific quarter and the relatively low volumes in the second quarter to begin with, the impact of that marginal mix shift was more pronounced in the quarter and hence the disconnect as you saw there between submitted and approved applications.

Derek Yung

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is open.

One more thing to add is, we actually like these, because they are sold throughout the year. And the market for dual eligible is quite large around 10 million. And then from -- how we get compensated perspective, is similar to M&A plan, regular standard M&A plan so there’s no differences in unit economics.

Tobey Sommer

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is open.

Could you describe the new retention tools you’re putting in place? I’m curious if these are more financial and change that on your profitability of renewing customers?

Scott Flanders

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is open.

I would put the retention efforts generally into two categories. One for making sure that near-term retention, in terms of sales that we’ve made that we keep them in the boat past what is called a rapid disenrollment or early cancellation period, so it’s first 90 days post sale. And there are -- that is primarily an operational thing on our end to make sure that both our systems and our communication back and forth with the carriers is put together in as frictionless and complete a process as possible. That is an area that quite frankly the company has not focused on historically. And the opportunity for us to significantly improve retention rates in that 90-day period post sale are both substantial and reflects a lot of near-term opportunity that we are very much focused on at the moment. No incremental cost associated with that opportunity. And to the extent that we’re successful in meaningfully changing that amount of churn, that will ultimately reflect in meaningfully higher LTVs for Medicare customers in the relatively near future. The second piece of the retention pie that we’re going after is that post 90 days, so more of a relational aspect with customers. Here again, an area that the company has historically not placed much of any focus on in terms of proving out the value proposition that we as a company have and continuing to help that customer manage their Medicare insurance purchase and to basically make sure that they are in the right plan at whatever point they are in their life or economic cycle, and to keep them as eHealth customers throughout that process, rather than going elsewhere to buy another plan when things change for them. Here again, a very small investment, well under a million dollars, for us to put some of the technology and other high value engagement tools in place to help these folks recognize that eHealth is a valuable part of their insurance purchasing and management process and keeping them in the boat. That's one that will take a little bit longer for us to get the payback on, simply because it will take longer to prove out and we show that people stay in our book for a longer period of time. But one where, again, we think there's a very significant return on investment opportunity for us is any extension and persistency in our book is new revenue and revenue that flows virtually all through the bottom line.

Tobey Sommer

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is open.

Just two more from me and I’ll get back in the queue. When do you expect the company to be cash flow positive on a shareholder basis? And then I understand that the IFP markets, there are some perspective changes in the works. But given that we maybe describe the market in those terms in recent years just for the changes not to manifest themselves in a positive way. I'm curious how you come to a conclusion to plan for doing -- materializing when history says they don't?

Scott Flanders

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is open.

You're breaking up a little bit on the second part. So I think I piece the question together, I'll answer that one first. We continue to believe that the IFP marketplace is one that has; by virtue simply the fact that there's still multiple eight figures of customers in that marketplace; even though it is turbulent; even though it is transient; a significant number, well over 15 million customers that are in need of non-ACA products to help them meet their health insurance needs in the marketplace; and that we have simply, over the last couple of years, not done as good a job as we can; and are now beginning to get some traction on serving those customers with the right products, at the right price point and engaging with them in the best manner to help them. We have some additional things that we are working on to further improve that part of the business for us. But the numbers tell us that there is still significant opportunity for us in that marketplace, leveraging the tools and the technology infrastructure that we have established in the marketplace, as well as our brand name there. So we're pleased with the turn and enrollment here and are still firmly committed to that marketplace, and it remains profitable for us. On the cash flow question, we've not provided guidance for next year. I do believe that we have commented previously though that we expect to be operating cash flow positive next year. We haven't set budgets for 2019 yet. So I can't tell you much more than that. But to tell you that we’re pleased with our operating trajectory relative to use of cash.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from George Sutton with Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

George Sutton

Analyst · Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

You referred couple of times to a more flexible model relative to a larger sales force. I wondered if you could explain what you mean by that exactly.

Scott Flanders

Analyst · Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

So as we went into AEP last year, we had access to 425 agents that were trained, licensed and appointed. And this year, between our three call centers and Gold River near Sacramento, and Salt Lake City and in Austin, coupled with the two outsourced operations, we will have 975 agents. And so we will not be -- the last year, we were significantly peak load limited. This year we anticipate being able to serve the vast majority of the customers calling us even in the busiest times.

Dave Francis

Analyst · Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

And I would add that, from a flexibility perspective, the outsource folks there not only allow us to put on sale agents that we don't have to carry throughout the year and what have you, but the way that our head of sales who's got over a dozen years of having managed models like this at healthcare, the way he set this up is that the flexibility comes in during those peak times of the day that Scott mentioned, we're able to bring people on a part time basis, fully licensed and available to sell. So that we're not carrying all of those 900 plus agents throughout the entire day, throughout the entire selling fees but really turning them on and turning them off as we need them. As the model show us, we will need to be able to handle that volume. So we expect to be able to serve a peak number close to an optimal number of customers that we expect to drive into our platform throughout the selling season. Q – George Sutton: Simple math suggests, given the Q2 was a shortfall, but you are reiterating guidance for the year that you're frankly even a little more optimistic about particularly Q4. Is that a reasonable conclusion?

Scott Flanders

Analyst · Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

I’d say, yes. We were a bit over our plan in Q1 and we are little bit below our plan in Q2, largely on track, a bit light in revenue and a bit ahead in adjusted EBITDA; and so the first half is not that critical from an overall performance standpoint. What's encouraging is where we're seeing COAs come in. We're seeing the agent hiring and training on track, and the outsource partners coming up and we'll be online. And so we have a high degree of confidence that our guidance is fully in place.

Dave Francis

Analyst · Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

And the volume side of this, we talk a lot about the work in the partner channel, in particular being the first quarter of the year is heavy on selling those partners. The second quarter of the year is heavy on closing those partners and along with the marketing tests that we undertook in the second quarter, getting the whole volume side of the equation set up and align correctly relative to the production side that Scott just mentioned. All of that came in as expected, if not better. So we're comfortable with the guidance as it stands right now.

George Sutton

Analyst · Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

Lastly, Scott, you mentioned -- you are expecting any day that we could move to 364 days for short term. Obviously, you and I have both thought the same thing for a few months. So I'm curious, is anything changed from your perspective or is there an easy explanation as to why it’s taken a little longer?

Scott Flanders

Analyst · Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

Our speculation is there could have been consideration in the administration for an implementation of mandatory renewability, which would have increased the cost of short-term by potentially 2x. We believe, because the rule has been submitted to the Congressional Budget Office that that has been resolved, and so that we really are in the final day. It won’t be before release but one question that there’s a lot of bid and ask around the table is whether the effective date for the…

George Sutton

Analyst · Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

Implementation…

Scott Flanders

Analyst · Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

So the implementation date is unknown of course, but we still expect it anytime. But the one opening question is whether it will be effective for this OEP or take effect on January 1st. And there’s an evenly divided split in the company as to the handicapping of what happens there.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I’m currently showing no other questions at this time. I’d like to turn the call back over Scott Flanders for closing remarks.

Scott Flanders

Analyst

Thank you, everyone. We look forward to catching up with you individually as your schedules permit.