Douglas E. Coltharp
Analyst · Ann Hynes of Mizuho Securities
Thank you, Jay, and good morning, everyone. I'll focus my comments on Q4 2012 but also highlight certain results for the full year and elaborate on a number of the assumptions underlying our 2013 guidance. I'll be reiterating some of the ground Jay just covered in his opening comments, and I'll go into just a bit more detail. As Jay mentioned, Q4 represented a strong finish to a strong 2012. Our revenue increased 6.7% Q4, driven by inpatient growth of 7.9%, offset by a decrease in outpatient and other revenue. The increase in inpatient revenue was driven by a 5.4% increase in discharges, 3% attributable to same-stores, and a 2.4% increase in revenue per discharge. Approximately 120 basis points of the new-store discharge growth Q4 resulted from the consolidation of St. Vincent Rehabilitation Hospital beginning in Q3 of 2012. Our discharge growth for Q4 was also favorably impacted by the timing of patient discharges from the last week of September into the first week of October. This was the offset to the negative impact to discharge growth in Q3 that we discussed during the third quarter earnings call, and it resulted in a modest decline in our Q4 length of stay. As I stated on the Q3 call, it's difficult to quantify with precision the impact of this length-of-stay change, but with that caveat, we estimate it added approximately 100 basis points to our Q4 total discharge growth. Now as this was a timing issue, it had no impact on full year 2012 discharge growth, which was 4.6%, including 2.9% in same-store growth. The increase in revenue per discharge in Q4 '12 versus Q4 '11 was attributable to pricing adjustments from both Medicare and managed care payors; an increase in the average acuity of our patients; neurological and stroke comprised 39.2% of our discharges in Q4 '12 versus 34.3% in Q4 '11; and a higher percentage of Medicare patients, offset by the unfavorable impact of pricing related to the aforementioned timing of discharges from September into October. The $3.2 million decline in outpatient and other revenue was impacted by the closure of 2 additional satellite clinics during Q4 '12 and the implementation of therapy caps on all hospital-based outpatient programs beginning October 1, 2012. At the end of Q4 '12, we operated 24 satellite clinics versus 26 at the end of Q4 '11. Revenue growth for full year 2012 was 6.7%, driven primarily by a 4.6% increase in discharge growth. As anticipated, bad debt expense for Q4 '12 increased by 10 basis points to 1.3% of revenue as compared to 1.2% in Q4 '11. As we have previously discussed, this increase was attributable to the increase in medical necessity denials experienced throughout the year, as well as a slowdown in the adjudication process. We did see the rate of new denials slow in Q4. During Q4, we continued to exhibit disciplined expense management. Expenses for the quarter did include a number of items, both favorable and unfavorable, that we expect to be non-repeating. I'll call those out as we review the components of our operating expenses. SWB for Q4 '12 was 48.7% versus 48.5% in Q4 '11. Q4 '12 SWB was unfavorably impacted by our previously disclosed decision to pay a onetime bonus to nonmanagement employees in the fourth quarter in lieu of merit increases. You will recall this decision was made to reward our employees for a successful 2012 without permanently adding this expense to our cost structure in the face of sequestration in 2013. SWB as a percentage of revenue for Q4 '12 was also unfavorably impacted by a decrease in the benefit related to year-end Workers' Comp insurance adjustments and the costs related to the implementation of our clinical information system. These items were offset by a favorable adjustment in our group medical accrual. Netting the effect of these items would have resulted in SWB as a percentage of net revenue being essentially flat in Q4 '12 versus Q4 '11. Our continued focus on labor productivity was evidenced by Q4 '12 employee per occupied bed, or EPOB, of 3.46, which was flat with Q4 '11. Our hospital-related expenses, which includes other operating, supplies and occupancy, increased to 20.8% in Q4 '12 from 20.4% in Q4 '11 primarily as a result of the inclusion of a $2.4 million nonrecurring franchise tax recovery included in Q4 '11. In Q4 '12, continued supply chain efficiencies and leverage of occupancy cost more than offset the impact of increased clinical information system implementation cost. G&A, which excludes stock-based compensation, improved to 4.4% of revenue in Q4 '12 from 4.6% in Q4 '11 as we gained leverage against the costs associated with our corporate office. The combination of strong revenue growth and disciplined expense management resulted in adjusted EBITDA for Q4 '12 of $128.6 million, an increase of 4.6% over Q4 '11. For the full year 2012, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $505.9 million, an increase of 8.5% over 2011. Our 2013 guidance for adjusted EBITDA is $506 million to $516 million. Owing to the increased number of considerations factored into our 2013 guidance, we have added a 2012 to 2013 adjusted EBITDA bridge at Page 15 of the supplemental slides. Jay referred you to this slide in his comments, and I encourage you to review this slide very thoroughly. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance reflects modest growth resulting from the onset of sequestration; the continued investment in our clinical information system, with implementation scheduled for 18 of our existing hospitals in 2013; the absence of some of the favorable accrual adjustments, such as group medical, experienced in 2012; and an increase of approximately $5 million in noncontrolling interest expense due to changes in the structure of 2 of our joint venture hospitals. With respect to the increase in noncontrolling interest, we have entered into an agreement to convert our 100% owned hospital in Jonesboro, Arkansas into a joint venture with St. Bernards Healthcare. Following the formation of the joint venture, our ownership position in this hospital will be reduced to 56%. This is a transaction we proactively pursued as it is consistent with our strategy of aligning with high-quality acute care hospitals in certain key markets. Additionally, our share of profits in one of our joint venture hospitals in Memphis, Tennessee will decrease from 70% to 50%, pursuant to a provision in the original partnership agreement, which dates back to the 1990s. There are no similar provisions in our other joint venture agreements. Interest expense for Q4 '12 of $24.3 million was in line with our expectations and represented a modest increase over Q4 '11 resulting from our September issuance of $275 million in 5.75% senior notes maturing in 2024. As a reminder, approximately $195 million of the proceeds from this offering were used to pay down the outstanding principal balance under our revolving credit facility, and an additional approximately $65 million was used to fund an optional redemption of a portion of each of our 7.25% senior notes due 2018 and 7.75% notes due 2022. For 2012, interest expense was $94.1 million as compared to $119.4 million for 2011. Assuming no further modifications to our capital structure, we would anticipate interest expense of approximately $98 million in 2013. Diluted EPS from continuing operations for Q4 '12 was $0.42 per share versus $0.50 per share in Q4 '11. The decline was primarily attributable to an effective tax rate of approximately 35% in Q4 '12 as compared to approximately 22% in Q4 '11. Additionally, Q4 '12 EPS was negatively impacted by an approximately $0.02 per share after-tax loss on the early extinguishment of debt related to the previously discussed optional redemption of a portion of our 2018 and 2022 senior notes. EPS for the full year 2012 was $1.65 per share compared to $1.42 per share for 2011. EPS for 2011 included an after-tax loss of $0.25 per share on the early extinguishment of debt versus $0.03 per share in 2012. EPS for 2011 included an effective tax rate of approximately 19% as compared to approximately 38% in 2012. The company's basic and diluted EPS were the same for 2011 and 2012. Our 2013 EPS guidance of $1.50 to $1.56 per share incorporates the aforementioned adjusted EBITDA considerations; the anticipated increase in interest expense; an increase in depreciation and amortization expense to approximately $95 million as compared to approximately $83 million in 2012, owing to our recent increases in capital expenditures; and an effective tax rate assumption of 40%. 2012 was another year of strong free cash flow generation for our company. For 2012, we generated adjusted free cash flow of $268 million, an increase of 10.2% from 2011, which, I'll remind you, had increased 34% over 2010. The increase in 2012 was accomplished in spite of an approximately $28 million increase in net working capital and planned approximately $32 million increase in maintenance capital expenditures, the net working capital increase in 2012 primarily related to the timing of payroll-related liabilities, an increase in accounts receivable stemming from the previously discussed trends in medical necessity claims denials and an increase in accounts payable due to the timing of year-end check disbursements. We expect net working capital in 2013 to increase by less than $20 million. Maintenance CapEx for 2012 was approximately $83 million. The year-over-year increase in maintenance CapEx was planned and has been previously discussed. It stemmed from the continued rollout of our clinical information system, and I'll remind you that unlike the acute care providers, we are not subsidized by the government for this investment under the HITECH program, and from a number of significant hospital refurbishment programs. We will continue with these investments in 2013 and anticipate maintenance CapEx in a range of $80 million to $90 million. With respect to discretionary capital expenditures in 2013 and as indicated on Slide 19, we anticipate increased opportunities to convert a number of our leased hospitals into owned facilities. This relates primarily to the timing of lease terminations and purchase options embedded in certain of our real estate lease. The decision to exercise a purchase option is typically driven by economic and/or control considerations. The estimated range on Slide 19 is based on 5 of our hospitals on which the purchase option is in play during 2013. As reflected in the breadth of this range, the timing, magnitude and ultimate outcome of these negotiations is difficult to predict. I'll conclude with a quick review of our year-end balance sheet. We ended 2012 with debt of $1.254 billion, roughly flat with the end of 2011. Our leverage ratio at the end of 2012 was approximately 2.5x as compared to 2.7x at the end of 2011. Net of cash and cash equivalents, our year-end 2012 leverage ratio was approximately 2.2x. We ended 2012 with no borrowings under our $600 million revolving credit facility and with approximately $133 million of cash and cash equivalents. We have no debt maturities of any consequence until Q3 of 2012, when our revolver is set to mature. And now, operator, I believe we're ready to open the call for questions.