Ronald Bain
Analyst · Stifel
Thank you, George, and good morning, everyone. Following on from Q1 and as anticipated, we saw good growth both in revenue, profitability and operational cash flow. As George discussed, operationally, we were performing very well. And in the second quarter, we saw the impact being a material increase in our financial results. We had strong earnings in Q2 of $42.4 million or $0.39 per diluted share. We also generated $54.8 million in adjusted EBITDAX. I will highlight some of the factors that resulted in our improved Q2 financial results, including the timing and number of sales liftings, reduction in exploration expense and improvement in the unrealized derivative loss position for the year. A major factor impacting costs and indeed earnings in Q1 was exploration expense. In the first quarter, we had cost of an exploration well at West Etame that was determined to be unsuccessful and additional seismic costs at the Niosi and Guduma blocks in Gabon. In the second quarter, we had virtually no exploration expense, a nearly $23 million difference. Net revenue more than doubled in the quarter. And in Q2, we had 2 partner liftings in Gabon for around 900,000 barrels gross each. While the production came back online in Cote d'Ivoire in June, no liftings occurred in Q2, but our entitlement inventory on the vessel grew with an anticipated lift now likely in August. Egyptian production and sales has been both strong and is rising due to a successful drilling campaign and sales volumes through the first half of the year were 7% higher than the same period in 2025. Overall, production in Q2 was 16,688 NRI BOPD or 21,796 working interest BOPD, an increase of about 10% compared to Q1 2026. Sales of 17,812 NRI BOPD for Q2 were 47% higher than Q1 and above the midpoint of guidance. Revenue in Q2 was up $72.6 million compared to Q1, driven by higher realized pricing and the higher sales volume. Turning to costs. With a significant increase in sales, our production costs for Q2 on an absolute basis were higher than in Q1 and were slightly above the midpoint of guidance, driven by inflationary pressure on costs, primarily fuel driven by higher commodity pricing as well as freight costs impacting margin. Our focus remains on keeping our costs low to enable us to maximize margin and increase our cash flow. But with higher diesel and freight costs driven by the Iran conflict, we may see some expense increases in the near term. Looking at G&A, our cash G&A totaled $9.6 million. The increase in general and administrative expenses was primarily a result of a $1.9 million of nonrecurring professional service and legal fees. Turning to hedging. As I have discussed in the past, our reserves-based lending facility requires us to have a more programmatic hedging program, which is more consistent over a rolling time horizon. Our strategy prioritized downside protection to safeguard cash flow to help fund capital commitments for the Cote d'Ivoire Baobab FPSO refurbishment, the Gabon Phase 3 drilling campaign, our debt servicing and the [indiscernible] dividend program. In March, oil prices spiked and we both realized and unrealized losses as we mark-to-market. This is reevaluated at the end of each quarter and the pricing at June 30 declined materially from March 31, resulting in an unrealized gain of about $40 million in the quarter. Overall, we generally maintain between 30% to 40% of our production hedged at any period going out as far as 12 months. We have opportunistically entered into the market when we saw war premium spikes. You can see our overall hedge position with both the timing and the related Brent floor and collar strike for each period in our supplemental information deck. Moving to taxes. In the second quarter, we reported an income tax expense of $16.8 million, which was comprised of a $15.8 million current tax expense and a deferred tax expense of $1 million. Income tax expense included a $1 million favorable oil price adjustment as a result of the change in value of the government of Gabon's allocation of profit oil between the time it was produced and its present mark-to-market liability. In Q1, we had a state listing in Gabon, which settled our tax position. And we do not see another state listing in 2026 with our cost pool maximized with the spend under the drilling program, which is first to be recovered. Similarly, we do not see a state listing in Cote d'Ivoire in 2026. And in Egypt, the tax barrels are settled monthly from the government's take. Turning now to the balance sheet and cash flow statement. In Q2, we invested $103.6 million on a cash basis and $98.9 million on an accrual basis and net capital expenditures. This was well below the low end of our guidance range. This is primarily related to new wells drilled as part of the drilling campaign in offshore Gabon as well as expenditures associated with the refurbishment and reconnection activities of the FPSO in Cote d'Ivoire. Thus far in 2026, Cote d'Ivoire has seen some additional capital costs over what the operator originally guided to, but this has been offset primarily by our own drilling performance in Gabon as well as deferring some nonessential CapEx. We have seen excellent performance from our drilling team in Gabon, and we've seen each well to date come in below its predrill budgeted approval for expenditure. This, together with some Etame engineering projects moving into 2027 and continued good collections in our Egyptian business has allowed us to expand our capital budget in Egypt to allow us to drill more wells in 2026 at no overall increase in projected capital spend for the year and no overall impact to 2026 free cash flow. This will allow Egypt to exit the year at far higher production rates than we originally envisaged back in our guidance call in March. Unrestricted cash at the end of the second quarter was $30.4 million. In the second quarter, to help fund our capital programs, we did draw $25 million against the company's RBL. In April, the aggregate borrowing base under the 2025 RBL facility increased to $300 million. We now have $177 million drawn on the credit facility with net debt of $147 million. Last call, I discussed how pleased we were in 2025 and Q1 2026 with the progress made with our Egyptian receivables. We continued in the second quarter as we saw an additional reduction to our trade receivables of about $11.5 million with our trade receivables falling from just over $24 million at Q1 to just under $30 million at the end of Q2. We continue to work with the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation to maintain this strong relationship and keep our receivables current. I'd like to call out specifically our leadership team in Cairo who continue to do great work in this area. In Q2 2026, VAALCO paid another quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share or $6.7 million. We also announced the third quarter dividend payment, which will be paid in September. Let me now turn to guidance, where I'll give you some key highlights and updates. As discussed in the past, guidance for the remainder of 2026 has no contribution from the Canadian assets that were sold in February. With the strong performance of our drilling campaign, coupled with the restart of production at Baobab and some additional drilling in Egypt, we expect to see strong increases in production and sales continue into the second half of 2026. For Q3 sales, we are expecting the midpoint of guidance to be only slightly higher than the Q2 actuals. This is driven by cargo sizes and mix across our assets. In Q3, we will have our first lifting in 2026 at Cote d'Ivoire with the Baobab field resuming production in June. This lifting is expected to be around 950,000 barrels gross. We have a 27.4% working interest ownership. Additionally, we will have 2 partner liftings in Gabon as we did in Q2, but these liftings are expected to be smaller in size than the Q1 liftings. With the continued uncertainty around war premium pricing and physical needs due to the conflict, buyers and traders on the spot market are looking for smaller cargoes and deferring entering into agreements more than a few days out from the liftings. We expect the third quarter 2026 net revenue interest sales volumes to range between 17,200 and 18,900 barrels of oil per day. For Q3, we're also projecting total production to be higher by about 23% compared to Q2 as we see additional wells brought online and production in Gabon in Egypt and the full quarter's production in Cote d'Ivoire. For the total company, we are forecasting Q3 2026 production to be between 24,400 and 26,900 working interest barrels of oil per day and between 19,600 and 21,600 net revenue interest barrels of oil per day. For the full year production guidance, as George mentioned, we see some production increases in Egypt and Cote d'Ivoire that are offset by some slight decreases in Gabon. But overall, we are confident in the performance of our diversified assets, and we are reaffirming the sales and production increase we conveyed last quarter. Our full guidance breakout is in the earnings release and in our supplemental slide deck on our website with production breakout of both working interest and net revenue interest by asset area. We expect our absolute production cost for Q3 to be in the range of $25 to $29 per NRI barrel of oil. This is slightly lower than Q2 as we're expecting some sales increase with costs remaining flat or decreasing slightly on an absolute basis. For our exploration expense, we are forecasting a range between $3 million and $4 million for Q3. This is primarily seismic processing work in both CI-705 as well as similar processing work by our partner in Niosi and Guduma blocks. As George discussed, we are dropping the offshore workover guidance to 0 for Q3 and for the full year. We expect cash G&A to be in the range of $7 million to $9 million. Finally, looking at CapEx, our Q1 and Q2 spend has been below the guidance range, some of which is timing, some of savings. As George mentioned, we are adding wells to our Egyptian program, but maintaining our full year capital expenditure midpoint. For Q3 2026, our capital spend is projected to be between $75 million and $115 million as we continue the drilling campaign in Gabon, prepare for the drilling campaign at Baobab and drill additional wells in Egypt. George outlined the multiple programs across our assets, and we believe that our efforts in 2025 and 2026 are building the foundation for another step change in production in the future. In closing, we saw material improvements in our Q2 financial results that we guided to in May and expect the second half of 2026 will continue to see increasing production, sales volumes and margins depending on the stability of current Brent pricing, which should produce favorable financial results as we upscale our netbacks from the greater West African mix of barrels in the second half of the year as well as a switch from expensive bunker diesel running costs in the Teli in Gabon to field gas. We believe we will remain well positioned to continue executing our strategy of growing production and reserves while adding meaningful value. Early 2027, we'll continue to see growth in our production, sales and margins as our Cote d'Ivoire Phase 5 drilling comes online. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to George.