Paul Wright
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open
I don't think $1,250 will cut it, Andrew, to be honest. Look, if you go back in the history of the expansion, the expansion was sort of muted and engineered back in the days of gold price being at $1,700 an ounce. And when we looked at how the Company was going to go move forward at that point in time and how we were going to finance the projects going forward, which led us to obviously the bond facility and the revolver, our downside was $1,500. And as gold went down lower and lower, yes, the expansion still worked, I mean you could at $1,300. But when you took a hard look at the cash flow generating capacity at $1,300 in the short to medium term compared to just continuing where we are, it was really not a lot of value to be gained associated with putting a significant additional capital at risk. And in our view, and maybe we'll be proven wrong, at the end of last year, is that we were more likely to be over the next call it two or four years in a relatively depressed gold price environment relatively speaking and fairly volatile, and although we had, and still have obviously, an exceptionally strong balance sheet, it was important to us having disposed off the Chinese assets to have the financial security to be able to rebuild the production base off that balance sheet. And to do so, certainly I felt very strongly, as did the Board, that it was essential that we had the two remaining operations clearly on path so we'd see them delivering strong cash flow in a price deck that would be call it somewhere in the $1,100 to $1,300 range. And so that was the rationale behind it, which would ensure that we would have in terms of cash flow as well as cash on the balance sheet sufficient funds to move forward to diversify the production base of the Company over the next couple of years. So, I think firstly my view, gold at $1,200, $1,250 projected for the next three or four years isn't likely to change our views on reactivating the expansion. What would it take? Firstly, I think you're probably taking a view of closer to $1,400 in longer-term before you would sort of say, yes, it's worth putting this additional dollars to work. But again, you're going to do that in the context of what are the other alternatives for capital allocation inside the Company. But simply put, expanding to the 20 million tonnes a year throughput, although it didn't cost a lot in terms of the residual capital, it put us very quickly into a mode of very high sustaining capital. So we just really weren't generating much in the way of free cash flow over the next couple of years.