Earnings Labs

Equifax Inc. (EFX)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 24, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Q3 2013 Equifax Earnings Release Conference Call. Just a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. For opening remarks and introductions, I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Dodge. Please go ahead, sir.

Jeffrey L. Dodge

Management

Thanks, and good morning. Welcome to today's conference call. I'm Jeff Dodge with Investor Relations. And with me today are Rick Smith, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Lee Adrean, Chief Financial Officer. During this -- today's call is being recorded. An archive of the recording will be available later today in the Investor Relations section in the About Equifax tab of our website at www.equifax.com. During this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements to help you understand Equifax and its business environment. These statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Certain risk factors inherent in our business are set forth in filings with the SEC, including our 2012 Form 10-K and subsequent filings. We will also refer to a non-GAAP financial measure, adjusted diluted EPS attributable to Equifax. Adjusted diluted EPS attributable to Equifax excludes acquisition-related amortization expense and associated tax effects. This measure is detailed in our non-GAAP reconciliation table included with our earnings release and also posted on our website. Also, please refer to our various investor presentations, which are posted in the Investor Relations section under the About Equifax tab on our website for further details. Now, I'd like to turn it over to Rick.

Richard F. Smith

Management

Thanks, Jeff, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Third quarter was a really strong broad-based performance and largely came in as we had guided, not only early in the year, but then reconfirmed in our last call for the second quarter. The third quarter performance was driven by a continued accelerated growth in our core non-mortgage products, along with solid execution on our strategic initiatives around the company, that offsetting mortgage market decline of over 34% for the quarter. Revenue -- total revenue for the quarter was $572 million, up 10% from the third quarter 2012. Operating margin was an impressive 27.6%, up significantly from 25.1% a year ago. And adjusted EPS was $0.90, up 21% from 74%(sic)[$0.74] last year. Year-to-date, total revenue was $1.7 billion, up 12%; and adjusted EPS, $2.69, up 25%. An important metric that we talk to you about routinely and something we focus on intensely here is the organic growth rate of our core non-mortgage market activities and the continued execution of strategic initiatives in our mortgage business -- across the company. The progress we are making on broadening and diversifying our revenue growth is critical to successfully delivering our long-term business model. In the third quarter, the organic revenue growth in core non-mortgage market activities accelerated beyond the long-term range we have of 6% to 8%, to 9%, so a good execution across the business there. As I always do, let me briefly cover a few key highlights from each of our business units. Starting with USCIS, they continue to leverage the Equifax's extensive data assets, analytical resources and technology capabilities to broaden and deepen our customer relationships and to deliver solid double-digit growth in the quarter. USCIS has made great progress with its enterprise selling initiatives, which we've talked about routinely.…

Lee Adrean

Management

Thanks, Rick, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I will be referring to the financial results from continuing operations, generally presented on a GAAP basis. You should also refer to the Q&A and non-GAAP reconciliations attached to our earnings release for additional financial information. Our third quarter performance is solid and broad-based. It's also very consistent with what we anticipated when we gave our full year guidance in July. Let me turn to the quarterly results. Compared to the same quarter in 2012, in the third quarter of 2013, consolidated revenue of $572 million was up 10% on a reported basis and up 11% on a constant-currency basis. Operating margin was 27.6%, up 250 basis points from last year, driven primarily by operating margin expansion in USCIS, Workforce Solutions and our International business. Diluted earnings per share attributable to Equifax was $0.71, up 14% from the same quarter next(sic)[last] year. And excluding acquisition-related amortization and associated tax effects, adjusted EPS was $0.90 a share, up $0.16 or 21% when compared to the third quarter of 2012. Moving to the individual business units. Our U.S. Consumer Information Solutions revenue was $253 million, up 15%. The acquisition of CSC, which we refer to as our Central Region, contributed 14% growth. And our core non-mortgage market organic growth, including strategic initiatives, contributed approximately 6% to growth, while the decline in mortgage market volumes subtracted 5% from growth. Online Consumer Information Solutions revenue was $184 million, up 14%. Excluding the Central Region, revenue was flat, as a decline due to lower mortgage market activity was offset by new products, market penetration and pricing initiatives. Mortgage Solutions revenue of $28 million was up 15% compared to the third quarter of 2012, driven entirely by the acquisition of our Central Region. This compares favorably to the…

Richard F. Smith

Management

Thanks, Lee. Again, the third quarter performance, I think, is a great example of how our preparation for the ultimate mortgage headwinds enabled us to continue to deliver on our commitments we made to our shareholders. Team is very focused on execution. They have the energy and discipline to commitments to both customers and shareholders. The total mortgage market activity in the third quarter was what we'd anticipated and the fourth quarter mortgage market shaping up almost exactly as we had expected. I'll give you some framework for the full year in a second. In spite of mortgage headwinds, we expect total Equifax organic growth in the core non-mortgage market activities in the fourth quarter to again exceed the top end of our long end organic growth range, which was 6% to 8%. As a result, and assuming current exchange rates and the anticipated decline in mortgage, we anticipate revenue in the fourth quarter to be in the range of 7% to 8%, which is right in line with the full year growth, around the middle of the 10% to 12% annual range that we gave you during our second quarter conference call. Adjusted EPS from continuing operations is expected to be between $0.89 and $0.92, which is again consistent with the full year adjusted EPS guidance we gave during our last release. The full year operating margin is expected to be at the top end of the 26%, 27% range, as incremental margins from our core non-mortgage initiatives effectively offset any impact in the decline in the mortgage-related revenue. Here's how I shape up the year, and I want to give you some framework for some points on how I think about the 2014 year. I'd say the first half of the year, the mortgage market was slightly stronger…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll go first today to David Togut with Evercore Partners.

David Togut - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Rick, did I hear you correctly in your key points for 2014, that you thought you would be in the 6% to 8% organic revenue growth range for next year?

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes, David. What I was trying to say there is that we -- the team continues to accelerate the performance, execute at high levels. We're ending this year on a high note, with 2 quarters in a row beyond the high end of our 6% to 8% range. And that gives me confidence that we'll be in that range for next year of 6% to 8%, yes.

David Togut - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst

That's very helpful, particularly given the mortgage activity. Lee, just shifting gears. Usually, you provide some very good perspective on the underlying drivers of OLCIS and USCIS in terms of just units and price. Could you walk us through some of the units and pricing trends you saw in both segments? And if you could drill down a little bit and give us a feel for unit growth in, let's say, credit card and auto, in addition to mortgage, that would be very helpful.

Lee Adrean

Management

I don't think we typically break our transaction debt -- growth down by the individual submarkets. But our total volume growth in online credit reporting was down 2% for the quarter, and average revenue per transaction was up 1%. What was the other? Was there another line of business besides online that you asked about?

David Togut - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Well, for USCIS, as a whole, can you give us some perspective on volumes versus price?

Lee Adrean

Management

Well that's -- yes, when we talk about USCIS, we are typically focused on our online business, where we have a relatively homogeneous source of revenue, it being predominantly credit reporting. The down 2%, by the way, compares -- is about the same as the last quarter, which was also down 2%. And the revenue performance with mortgage volume falling off, which tends to be attractively priced, the improvement in revenue per transaction was only -- was plus 1%. It had been running at higher levels due to the mortgage mix in prior quarters.

Richard F. Smith

Management

David, you asked the question, too, about a couple of the verticals. One was auto, and I think maybe credit card and something else. But the auto market in USCIS continues to perform well, and part of it's the market itself. Part of it is, I think, we've discussed earlier this year, the creation of a new vertical focused on auto with a new team leader, new products and so on and so forth, new partners. That continues to perform well in USCIS. Number 2, 2 other markets that are performing well throughout the year, including third quarter, is the insurance vertical, which you know has been a focus for us for couple of years now, and third is retail revenue.

David Togut - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And just coming back to your comments on the margin expansion at Workforce Solutions. Of the 450 basis points, how much was a decline in purchase price amortization versus an improvement in operating efficiencies? Just trying to size the margin trends in that business going forward as the benefit from lower amortization rolls off.

Lee Adrean

Management

The majority came from the reduced acquisition amortization, and that's at the full rate that we're going to see for the next couple of years now. So you won't see any further change in the effective acquisition amortization. On top of that, obviously, operating efficiencies were an addition to that, and also by the way, helped offset with mortgage volume declining, total Workforce Solutions volume flat. That naturally, if anything, would have created a little bit of drag on margins and we were able to offset that.

David Togut - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Just final question. You highlighted some acquisition opportunities, particularly small- to mid-sized businesses. Any particular vertical industries you want to highlight where you're focused from an M&A perspective?

Richard F. Smith

Management

No, it's really tied back to our strategy. It's not going to be anything where we'll catch anyone offguard. It's adding some capabilities we need. It's adding some additional footprint expansion that we need, some tuck-in on current capabilities, so it's pretty broad-based and consistent with our strategy. And in fact, as I look at it, David, every business unit has opportunities that we've identified. As you know, we just finished our 3-year strategic plan back in September. So the M&A pipeline seems right off of that, so it looks good.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan. Andrew C. Steinerman - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: It's Andrew. It sounds like the mortgage revenues at Equifax have performed way better than the market. You referred to the MBA index being down 34% in the third quarter. So Equifax's 3 practices has kind of widened the gap from the market. Do you anticipate that happening and why? I mean continuing to happen and why?

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes, Andrew. Something we've been focused on now across the company, and the mortgage vertical is 1 benefactor of that, and that is finding ways to innovate at high rates, finding ways to bring new products to market at high rates, finding ways to bundle products together that no one else has, so we can get more spend in the marketplace, and trying to find ways to take share. So mortgage is a subset of that overall strategy. They performed well versus the banking index now for a number of years. So yes, I completely expect our performance to be above the market. So when the market's up, I expect it to grow at a faster rate than the mortgage market. And when it's down, I expect it to decline at a slower rate, so yes. Andrew C. Steinerman - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Great. And you agree that Equifax's outperformance in that segment increased in the third quarter, right?

Richard F. Smith

Management

Clearly.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Andre Benjamin with Goldman Sachs.

Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

A couple of questions. First, could you talk a little bit about the competitive landscape for some of your products that serve the B2B lending landscape, like commercial credit scores, business failure scores, et cetera? Are you seeing any share gains? Talk a little bit about pricing or any impact you're seeing from some new competition from Dun & Bradstreet and others?

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes. If you're referring predominantly to the U.S., which it sounds like you are, we've got great competitors in the U.S. marketplace and good competitors around the world. We respect what D&B's doing, we respect what Experian is doing. But what we focus on here is our strategy, our NPI, our share gains. And in U.S., we were such a small player. The team is doing a good job of growing through NPI and through share gains. As I've said before multiple times, share gains, long term, is a tough proposition. What you're better off doing is finding ways to build products and solve problems that no one else can solve, so the spend goes up and you get that incremental spend. And that is definitely what our North America Commercial Solutions business is doing. Yes, because they're small, they're also gaining share.

Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

And I think you've also talked in the past about a push to sales from additional Verification Services to various verticals that provide consumer loans where your penetration is low. Could you maybe talk a little bit about the penetration of employment versus income verification. I'd say the auto dealers versus credit card companies, student loans, mortgage, et cetera. Just a little bit of color on the different vertical penetration?

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes. I usually give you some details on the different verticals. I don't think I have that off my head today. But that's a huge part of Dann's -- if you think of The Work Number strategy, it centers on a couple of things. Number 1 is rapidly growing -- I mean 3 things, rapidly growing the database, which that team has done a marvelous job of doing, going from something like 180 million records to 230 million records. Number 2 is finding a way to get more value out of each record you have, which they've done. I mentioned that the value for records almost doubled what it was back in 2007. Number 3 then is -- to your point, is to deploy new resources and leverage -- redeploy those resources so that we would call enterprise selling to take the income employment verifications to markets we never thought about before, like government, insurance, auto and card. As I mentioned in my opening comments, that's really been a driver of Dann's growth outside the mortgage market. So as the mortgage market declines, he's getting great performance there. And we're at the early days of that performance in my view, too. I clearly see a path of 250 million records. I see more value in each record, and I see us selling more and more to non-mortgage markets. The last thing to talk about with EWS is they're getting great traction around an acquisition we had a couple of years ago called, eThority, which is bringing analytics to Dann's customer base that we never could do before. And that will be a stream of revenue growth going forward.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

First, just a question around the M&A. I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like the pipeline of -- at least the way you sounded, was a lot better than maybe it has been. So does that imply that maybe the pace of acquisitions relative to what you guys have done might speed up in '14? That's just the first part. And let me just -- I'll ask the next one. Just in terms of -- you said small to medium size. Just curious on what the thoughts, plans were around the larger acquisitions, because you guys have obviously done well with the 2 major ones you've done. Just thoughts around that.

Richard F. Smith

Management

Great, thank you. No, I still think our long-term financial model is largely going to be driven around organic growth initiatives. That is the things we know how to do. We do them very well. We've been at them now for 8 years, and it's lower risk. Having said that, we also have always talked about 1, 2 points, some years higher than that, some years a little less, coming from M&A. So over the long-term model, I think you should still think about us being in that range. It doesn't mean, to your second point, that we'll shy away from the large deals. We have done very well, to your point, with the TALX acquisition back in -- almost 7 years ago, and with CSC 9, 10 months ago. But those are naturally -- obviously, have higher risk and higher price tags. So we always keep an eye on those from time to time. What I do is I'm a firm believer that those have got to be paced at a very slow rate, so you can fully digest, integrate and succeed with the large acquisitions, where you have the ability to maybe have a little faster cadence with the smaller to mid-sized deals.

Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Got it. And then so I guess with that in context, just obviously, you guys did back into the buyback market, share buybacks this quarter. You're down to that leverage range you guys have historically wanted to be. So going forward, obviously, unless you guys are involved in some M&A's that using the cash, should we continue to expect the buybacks to be implemented?

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes. I'd say, strategically, the philosophy that Lee and I have of using our cash first for organic growth initiatives remains, two is we remain committed to our dividend policy that we implemented a couple of years ago. Third, as I just mentioned to you, Manav, M&A will be an important part of our long-term growth strategy. And we remain committed to buying back shares, and it will ebb and flow. As you said, we've delevered from over 2x EBITDA in the first quarter to around 1.6x. We'll look at what comes up on the M&A side and balance that off with share repurchases.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Paul Ginocchio with Deutsche Bank.

Paul Ginocchio - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Rick, I know it's probably difficult, but I think if you looked at the previous announcement on the CMS contract, it would have implied roughly $65 million a year. With the sort of maybe slower start of the healthcare exchanges, can you talk about what you're thinking about for 2014 from that contract?

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes, and that's a great question. We will plan for a very -- financially plan for a very modest amount of revenue at this time because of all the issues they're having. I remain very, very hopeful that this thing will, in fact, materialize at a level that makes a material impact to us, be it the $65 million range that you just calculated yourself, Paul, or something around that. We'll know a lot more, as I said when we were on the call together back in the second quarter, come February. I'm hopeful the budgets the administration is working through now are largely ironed out. The math is straightforward math. And sometime we can all walk through that, but how you get that $65 million is pretty straightforward math. It's just a matter of them getting the system up and running. So as I mentioned earlier, we have contemplated very little revenues this year. At this juncture, I think it's prudent for us to assume modest revenues next year. And if things are up and running and humming come February, we'll have 4, 5 months of experience under our belts. And we'll have much better transparency to what that might look like in 2014.

Paul Ginocchio - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

And just on the government shutdown, I know you do some work within Workforce Solutions around E-Verify and I-9. Is that just delayed revenue within the quarter, or does that have an impact for the entire quarter, for the fourth quarter?

Richard F. Smith

Management

It's a good question, Paul. It's so small. It was just not on E-Verify and I-9, there was obviously the mortgage market. You pull a 4506-T if you can't find an instant verification on The Work Number. That slowed down. It's hard to discern specifically and quantify how much of that was a drag versus some of your catch-up in the following weeks, but there's no doubt we did feel some slowdown in EWS as a result of the government shutdown. But I would not categorize it as being dramatic.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Jeff Meuler with Baird. Jeffrey P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Before I get greedy and ask this question, I want to recognize that 2 quarters ago, people were saying how are you going to get up to 6% to 8% when you're trending at 4.5% core growth. So hats off to the team in terms of what you've done the last 2 quarters. But now I'll get greedy with my question. Why is 6% to 8% the right number? And I ask it from the standpoint, you're clearly trending above that now in what I'll call, for a lack of a better term, kind of a blah economy. So if the economy gets better, why is 6% to 8% the right number? Is there anything that is going on right now that you view as unsustainable? I'll leave it there.

Richard F. Smith

Management

It is awfully greedy, Jeff, thank you. Thank you for the backhanded compliments, too, I appreciate that. I'd say when we framed up the long-term financial model, it was contemplating multiple cycles. Some cycles, when you have a downturn in the economy, other cycles, when you have an upturn. Obviously, when you have an upturn in the economy, you should expect to be at the upper end of that range. And when you have a downturn, maybe at the lower end of that range. So the view is that is a sustainable model for you to think about Equifax long term. Secondly, there's a lot of thought that went into this 6% to 8%. It's just not a number we pull out of the hat. It is taking a look at things we're doing around NPI. What's our success rate, how many products do we launch every year, what's the time to revenue from your launch, what's the success rate of the launch, bundling, segmentation, strategic pricing. This is a very systematic model that we build across multiple initiatives, across every BU in every country, that gets to that 6% to 8% range. And we feel that's a pretty good range. Jeffrey P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Okay. And then understand that you guys have been offsetting it with expansion in the core. But how should we think about the incremental margins for all of your mortgage business across the 3 buckets?

Lee Adrean

Management

The incremental margin, it's a mix of some very high margin business, additional credit reports, additional instant verifications, along with some services that have higher pass-through costs. When you put those 2 together incrementally, we're probably looking at incremental margins that are in the 40% to 50% range. So with mortgage dropping, we've got to work extra hard to try to offset that from a margin perspective. Jeffrey P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: And will you -- do you think you'll continue to be able to offset that in the first half of 2014?

Lee Adrean

Management

Yes. I think we're looking for kind of probably comparable margins in 2014 and 2013.

Richard F. Smith

Management

Jeff, here's how Lee and I think about margins. We gave you a framework of trying to deliver 25 basis points of margin improvement every year. And then this year, we gave you a range, I think it was 26% to 27%. And we delivered or delivering at the very high end of that range. So I still think over -- I think of 27%-ish as being a good foundation for us. And then over multiple years, getting back to the 25-basis-points improvement year in, year out. Jeffrey P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Okay. And then the follow-up question to Andrew's on mortgage. Understand that you guys have a long-term track record of outperforming the broader market. But is the magnitude of the outperformance at all sustainable? Or why the big step-up in Q3 to be flat organically in a 34% down market? That's obviously a huge gap.

Richard F. Smith

Management

Again, I'd say it's nothing -- no 1 single -- single silver bullet, it comes down to multiple things. It is new products. It is bundling of existing products with new products to get more share of wallet and share gain. It is strategic pricing initiatives. And the combination of all 3 or 4 of those things has continued to pay dividends for us.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: I just want to ask a little bit, you're doing a great job -- I'm just going to beat this horse one more time, by the way -- on offsetting the mortgage headwinds. And one thing I was just thinking about is just the Mortgage Solutions business is probably like the most levered to mortgage. And you offset the mortgage headwinds the most in that area. And verification has got relatively less compared to mortgage. And you had -- the implication is that there was not the same kind of offset because you kept them both flat. Were there particular initiatives, specifically in mortgage, that were -- it was more of a focus for you guys than there were in Verification Services? I'm just trying to get a little bit of color around that.

Richard F. Smith

Management

No, I'd say the USCIS Mortgage Solutions business has had a longer period of time to build new products to allow them to offset the decline in mortgage. Dann has been at this diversification into -- someone else asked a second ago -- auto insurance, government, collections, card. And Dann's been out there may be 2.5 years or so, and he's just building that momentum now. So they're doing a great job. I don't ever want to underestimate that, but he is newer to the game at diversifying the revenue streams, building out the analytics capability, which is what gives me so much confidence that as time goes on, our ability to continue to grow regardless of mortgage cycles is enhanced. The longer we get Dann's team at this diversification model, the better off we're going to be. Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay, that's good color on that. One other thing, just in the healthcare market. I know they've got that big CMS contract, which should hopefully be very nice for you guys in the coming years. But there's a global just kind of a trend that it is going to force -- and we're seeing this right now -- just more higher deductible healthcare plans. And that's going to force basically doctors, hospitals, everyone, to try to collect from consumers or set up their billing with consumers and analyze it more upfront. I was just wondering, do you have particular initiatives in that area in order to kind of capitalize on this trend? Because I know some of the other competitors out there are focusing on that right now.

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes, we continue to look that. We're bringing consultants in. We looked at M&A opportunities. There may be opportunities. It's not glaring to me, Shlomo, right now on what those opportunities are. I think our plate is so full. If we can execute the CMS contract fully, and when I say fully, it is not just the sort of bite of the apple, which is the contract that's been alluded to now for a few quarters, but it's the follow-on effects that CMS will be looking for. It is then going to IRS and other arms of the government who need verification --- actual instant verification of income and employment for many, many social services that are offered. I think if we focus our efforts there on providing unique value, we -- you, our investors, and our customers, and ourselves will be nicely rewarded. Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Just one follow-up on that. Just right now, your contract is for the automatic Verification Services, you guys also do the manual Verification Services. Do you see that contract eventually being expanded to that over time because there's the same need?

Richard F. Smith

Management

That was the multiple bite to the apple I was referring to. I think, first and foremost, [indiscernible] CMS is so alone[ph] getting the system stood up and the contractors ready. All of their energy is there, but we have made the offer. We do multiple things, so they're very interested. We're one of the few vendors who actually stood up our capabilities on time, on budget, so on and so forth, so we've got enormous credibility with them right now. We stand ready to do more as soon as they're ready.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Dan Perlin with RBC Capital Markets.

Matthew V. Roswell - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

It's actually -- it's Matt Roswell in for Dan. Two questions. First on the margins for next year, could you talk about how even -- how you get to flat, given the headwinds from the mortgage business and the loss of incremental margin there, the sort of grow over of the CFC accretion? I'm just trying to get a feel for how you get that margin growth or flat margin, I should say.

Richard F. Smith

Management

Lee, why don't you take that one?

Lee Adrean

Management

Yes. Of course, the accretion on margin from CSC will maintain itself. It doesn't expand again, but it will -- that will maintain itself. The mortgage pressures, we will be working to offset that through growing some of our other lines of business. And then continuing -- we had a continuing lien effort across the company to drive efficiencies year in, year out, and that also gives us some benefit. So as I said, next year's margins may more likely be flattish to this year's rather than typical, but of course, that's following a year where we had great expansion. But we do think there are enough levers that we can likely offset the pressure we'll see on mortgage, particularly in the first half of the year, where we're going to be facing the most challenging comparables on mortgage in 2014.

Matthew V. Roswell - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Okay. And then my second question is, are you seeing sort of more activity down in the lower-credit-quality consumer? And I don't want to say subprime yet, but are you starting to see that come back or...

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes, yes. I think, Matt, you're seeing that the banks get a little more aggressive, especially in the auto market. They're being aggressive. It's not anywhere close to what the credit quality may have been back in 2005, '06, '07. But yes, the banks are being a little more aggressive.

Matthew V. Roswell - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

And is that part of the reason...

Lee Adrean

Management

Matt, to your question of being a little cautious about what the bank behavior might be, while we do see them getting to subprime, it's interesting because is that it is very careful, very structured. It's the upper tiers of sub prime. We're not seeing the indiscriminate behavior of 2005, '06 and '07. So we think it appears healthy from everything we can observe, both on the tiers they're getting into, as well as the early-stage delinquency remaining well under control. So it is -- from what we can see, it's being done prudently, but it is happening.

Matthew V. Roswell - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Okay. And if I could sneak in a third one in there. The strength on the consumer financial marketing, the old credit marketing business. Can you talk about what the driver to that was?

Lee Adrean

Management

The biggest driver in that is we've talked some in the past about our IXI business having some downdraft as certain uses of the product were cut back on. We're now seeing IXI return to growth. So by comparison, that's where the acceleration is. The underlying traditional credit marketing is running kind of comparable to the last couple of quarters, and it's really the acceleration back to growth of IXI.

Richard F. Smith

Management

In fact, IXI, Matt, that was the strongest quarterly growth we've had in a long time.

Matthew V. Roswell - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Since you mentioned IXI, I'm surprised no one's asked about the regulatory environment. Any thoughts, changes, et cetera?

Richard F. Smith

Management

I think it's a correlation to what Lee just said. The fact that we're growing, we work very closely with our customers. And it wasn't regulatory, it was uncertainty around regulation that drove some concern. And working very closely with the customers, understanding their interpretation of the concern and then modifying our product offering accordingly, while still adding value, has enabled us to return to growth.

Matthew V. Roswell - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

And what about in terms of the broader business, the CFPB, all that fun stuff?

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes, that is fun. CFPB, we continue to stay very close to them. There's no real changes since the last time we discussed. They continue to visit. But as far as impact to the business, expense to the business, impact on product offerings, it remains as we've discussed before. Very manageable at this point in time.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll go next to Andrew Jeffrey with SunTrust.

Andrew W. Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

I had to jump on late, so I apologize if I'm repetitive, Rick and Lee. With regard to -- I just want to clarify a little bit on the margin discussion. With regard to margin, I know historically, Equifax has referred to EBIT, but now some of the intangibles amortization is rolling off. Is it more appropriate to be looking at your EBITDA margin going forward as the right measure of profitability?

Richard F. Smith

Management

No, that's a great, great question, Andrew. We would -- always thought that operating margin -- Lee and I do, obviously, routinely look at cash margin and EBITDA margin, how that performs versus operating margin. So you don't become complacent with operating margin growth because of the amortization. So we do look at it. We thought about do we start using that metric is a means of communicating to our investors and the sell side guys. And we'll kick that around. We may, in fact, do that.

Andrew W. Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

So when you're thinking about flat margin for '14, that's EBIT?

Lee Adrean

Management

Yes.

Andrew W. Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Which implies probably a down EBITDA margin?

Lee Adrean

Management

No, I'm not sure that's right. I'm not sure. At least at the moment, I don't think there's a lot of difference in the acquisition amortization this year and next year, maybe just a slight amount just because revenue's growing, but ...

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes.

Lee Adrean

Management

I don't see a big difference in those 2 trends in 2014.

Richard F. Smith

Management

And Andrew, here's what we could do. Let me now kick this around. If we think there's merit in discussing it, we can come back at the February earnings call.

Lee Adrean

Management

Well, our D&A's very public. It's in our release.

Andrew W. Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Right, right. Okay. And then Rick, with regard to the 9% non-mortgage core organic revenue growth, can you opine a little bit or expand, I guess, on new end markets, and maybe you did that. That's why I apologize if I'm asking you to repeat yourself. But were there some particular call-outs in terms of end markets or customers that drove that above-trend performance?

Richard F. Smith

Management

No, that's right. No, it was -- as I mentioned in my early comments, which you unfortunately couldn't hear, it was really broad-based. It was all 5 BUs -- 6 BUs. It was all countries and it's driven by the same things that you've seen us talk about, which is new products, bundling of products, segmentation, pricing, all the things we've been doing now for 8 years really starting to jump.

Andrew W. Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And just lastly, could you give us an update on Russia and whether or not that's a business that potentially becomes wholly owned by Equifax at some point?

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes. From a market perspective, and you and I were together recently, it continues to perform extremely well. We are in a very good #1 position in the marketplace. We are adding contributors of data at records paces. We were adding users of data at record paces. We're growing top line, bottom line. We're innovating. We're leveraging now more fully. We'll do so even more next year. All the capabilities we have in our International arena for Paulino Barros to bring more products and platforms to Russia. And we're diligently working with our partners there to see if there's a path for us to take a bigger role and consolidate Russia. We like the business, and the team has done a heck of a job over the last 5 or 6 years at running it.

Andrew W. Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And would that be hypothetically an accretive acquisition?

Richard F. Smith

Management

Yes, I don't think of it as accretive. We already own 49%.

Lee Adrean

Management

Well, 50%.

Richard F. Smith

Management

50%.

Andrew W. Jeffrey - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

So are you consolidating now?

Richard F. Smith

Management

We don't consolidate.

Lee Adrean

Management

Yes. And Andrew, by law in Russia, we're limited to 50% ownership.

Richard F. Smith

Management

So it would be us -- it's just the government [indiscernible] partners is what we're talking about here Andrew.

Jeffrey L. Dodge

Management

Okay, I want to thank everybody for participating in the call today, and we'll be available this afternoon if you have any additional questions. Thanks again, and that concludes the call.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's conference. Have a great rest of your day.