Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Equifax fourth quarter earnings release conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Dodge. Please go ahead, sir.
Equifax Inc. (EFX)
Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 5, 2009
$172.42
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1 Month
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-3.22%
Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Equifax fourth quarter earnings release conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Dodge. Please go ahead, sir.
Jeff Dodge
Management
Good morning, and welcome to today's conference call. I’m Jeff Dodge, Investor Relations. And with me today are Rick Smith, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Lee Adrean, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is being pre-recorded. An archive of the recording will be available later today in the Investor Center of our website at www.equifax.com. During this call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements to help you understand Equifax and its business environment. These statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Certain risk factors inherent in our business are set forth in filings with the SEC, including our 2007 Form 10-K and subsequent filings. During this call, we will also refer to several non-GAAP financial measures for Equifax's consolidated in the fourth quarter of 2008. These measures include adjusted net income, adjusted operating income, and adjusted operating margin. These measures determine net income, operating income, and operating margin by adjusting for certain items indicated in sections A and B in the non-GAAP financial measures attached to our earnings release. We also provide adjusted diluted EPS, which is excluding acquisition-related amortization in the items just noted. Finally, we will refer to adjusted EBITDA defined as operating income before depreciation and amortization, and the certain items we mentioned earlier. We will also present operating results excluding the impact of foreign exchange so that you will have clear understanding of the fundamental business operation. Please see the section of our earnings release entitled Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial Measures to the Comparable GAAP Financial Measures; for further details, in the non-GAAP reconciliations posted in the Investor Center on our website. Now I would like to turn it over to Rick.
Rick Smith
Management
Thanks, Jeff. Good morning, everyone. I’ll start of this morning. I’m going to not repeat or create any superlatives that you may have heard in the past that would describe the economic environment that we are all dealing with on a global basis, but rather tell you that look back on 2008 just how proud I am of this business, their performance, and the strength of this business model to deliver the results they delivered in 2008 when our customers, both business and consumer customers, were dealing with pains that they have never endured in the past. This team has had to make a lot of tough calls in 2008 and it did it with great integrity, speed and effectiveness. We had to make calls where we walked from unprofitable and non-strategic business that didn’t make sense long-term. And we had to make some tough calls on expenses. And to do all that, I always tell our team to keep things in perspective. You’ve got to look to the landscape around you. And when you see the customers again and the pain they are in, to finish that year as we did, and I’ll go through some financials and Lee will go through details. It’s truly remarkable. I think one is of particular highlight to me is the fact that when we look at it on a cash operating margin basis, the fact that this business was able to maintain a cash margin year-on-year of 30% in my view was quite outstanding. But for the last three years we as a business have been on a cultural transformation, and that transformation prepares to deal very directly with the challenges that we faced last year and will face going into 2009 as well. There are four areas of particular highlight I’d…
Lee Adrean
Management
Thanks, Rick. And good morning, everyone. This morning all financial information I will be discussing are presented on a GAAP basis, except as otherwise noted. You should also refer to the Q&A and non-GAAP reconciliations attached to our earnings press release for additional financial information. Our fourth quarter performance was good in a very difficult environment, both domestically and internationally. For the quarter, consolidated revenue of $447 million was down 9%. Changes in foreign exchange rates unfavorably impacted revenue by $25 million compared to the prior year, which was an even greater impact than we expected when we gave guidance in October. Constant dollar revenue declined 4%. Adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP measure, was $154 million, down 2% for the quarter. Operating income was $116 million, down 3% from the same quarter in 2007. And operating margin was 26% in the quarter, up from 24.5% in the fourth quarter of 2007. Net income was $64 million, down 2%. Diluted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.50, up from $0.49 a year ago. And excluding the impact of acquisition-related and tangible amortization, adjusted EPS in non-GAAP measure was $0.61, up 3% from $0.59 in the fourth quarter of 2007. Turning to each of our businesses, in our US Consumer Information Solutions business, Online Consumer Information Solutions revenue was $135.2 million, down 10% when compared to the same quarter last year. For our core product, total credit decision volume was $125.6 million, down 14% compared to last year. Mortgage Solutions revenue of $18.2 million was up 43% when compared to the fourth quarter a year ago. Our Settlement Services offering drove most of this growth, but our core Mortgage Reporting revenue was also up 11% for the quarter, as both unites benefited from the increased level of refinancing activity during the quarter. Credit…
Rick Smith
Management
Thanks, Lee. As we kind of recap some of the highlights from 2008, I’d be focusing on five things that we take particular pride in. Number one is we maintained those very strong healthy margins, which has been a priority for us through this market cycle. Number two, we have invested significantly new products that will help our clients in this environment solve the problems they never have solved before and also position us for a good long-term growth when this thing starts to turn. Number three, we have extended our analytical and enabling technology capabilities to a global footprint at an accelerated rate. Number four, we have expanded into emerging markets. And number five, we have continued leverage and add to our very unique data assets around the world. When this economy recovers – and I can’t tell you when it’s going to be. But when it does, we will be stronger and more diversified with sustainable high-return growth for our shareholders. And think about the incremental margin lift you get when you’ve taken the cost that we’ve taken out of this business in the past 18 months. Until the economy does bounce back, we will continue to anticipate the environment and execute our growth strategy while protecting those operating margins. During 2008, many of our customers frequently revised or withdrew guidance. And given the slowing global economic growth, many more have not committed to specific performance targets for 2009. They continue to be cautious and concerned, as are we, about the economy. Declining consumer spending, increasing delinquencies and loss rates – record mortgage foreclosures, declining asset values, and this impact has hindered their ability to deliver shareholder return. As a result of this cloudiness, if you will, in the economic landscape, we are not going to provide our…
Operator
Operator
(Operator instructions) And we’ll take our first question from Carter Malloy with Stephens. Carter Malloy – Stephens: Hi, guys, thanks for taking my questions. Can you help me understand the weakness in your commercial solutions versus your competitors in the period? I’m assuming that a lot of that has to do with your higher relative exposure to smaller businesses, but –
Rick Smith
Management
Carter, could you repeat that one more time. You kind of cut in and out. Carter Malloy – Stephens: Yes, sure. I’m sorry. Can you help me understand the weakness in your commercial solutions versus your competitors in the period? My assumption is that you have a higher relative exposure to small businesses, but you can just help me understand that a little better.
Rick Smith
Management
That’s – yes. So if you are comparing us with TND or whoever else, Experian, a couple of things you've got to look at, yes. One, the focus of our exchange, our commercial enterprise has largely historically been focused on small to mid-sized companies, and they have been maybe impacted at a rate that's a little more severe or faster than the large companies, number one. But number two is, when you look at our business you've really got to break it into a couple of different buckets. And if you look at the core US business, there are three components to it Carter, there's the US, Canada and our database marketing business. And mostly, the investment is going into our core US business. And when you look at our core US business, it’s growing actually – it grew actually 10% – was that fourth quarter, Jeff? – grew 10% in the fourth quarter. So, solid growth. Carter Malloy – Stephens: Okay, great. That’s good to hear. And then also you had mentioned applying free cash flow to paying down debt, but I missed it if you said it. Do you have any plans to buy back shares in ’09 or is that the whole –?
Rick Smith
Management
Lee, why don’t you take that?
Lee Adrean
Management
Yes. I think in most quarters what we’ve done is we have used our cash flow for some mix of share repurchase and debt pay-down. In the last –the first half of last year was a substantial year towards share repurchase. In the second half we shifted towards a higher focus on debt reduction. And I think we’ll see the same in the first half of this year. We will likely do some above, but it will be more heavily oriented towards debt pay-down. Carter Malloy – Stephens: Okay, great. Thanks, guys.
Operator
Operator
And we’ll take our next question from Dan Levine with Robert W. Baird. Dan Levine – Robert W. Baird: Great, thanks. Could you guys talk a little bit about the trends you saw in January and how that compared to the linearity of the months throughout the quarter?
Rick Smith
Management
Yes, Dan, I’ll jump on that. It’s – there's obviously rationale behind the guidance that Lee and I just provided. And what we saw in January was actually very in mind with the trend we had seen in the fourth quarter of 2008. So you didn’t see – that’s an aggregate. That’s across the entire enterprise, across all lines of business, so on and so forth. You saw some positives in some areas and negatives in other, but when you aggregate together, Dan, we saw a trend that looked very much like we saw in the fourth quarter of 2008. So you didn’t see a significant increase in revenue and you didn’t see a significant decrease. That’s why our guidance is in a range of basically flattish with the revenue delivered in the fourth quarter of 2008. Dan Levine – Robert W. Baird: Okay. And then just help me understand within the guidance, essentially the same revenue base first quarter versus fourth quarter with a lower earnings number, is that just payroll taxes that kick in in the first quarter or is there something else going on there?
Lee Adrean
Management
There are actually quite a few moving parts between the fourth quarter of ’08 and the first quarter of ‘09. As I noted, the general corporate expense was lower in the fourth quarter than a typical run rate in part due to a lower bonus accrual in the fourth quarter. Each year our advertising and our personal solutions business tends to be low in the fourth quarter. It’s not typically a time of year when people are responsive to our products, but we step up our advertising in the first quarter and we’re actually going to do that even to a little greater degree this year given some opportunities we see.
Rick Smith
Management
The TV advertising we talked about earlier is an example.
Lee Adrean
Management
And our commercial revenue tends to spike at very high incremental margins in the fourth quarter due to the timing of certain renewals and some year-end true-ups on volume sensitive agreements. And as that revenue steps back down, that tends to have a high incremental effect. So there are several moving parts between the fourth quarter and first quarter that cause that lower earnings per share on a comparable revenue. And you typically see our first quarter will tend to be by a slight margin, the lowest, both revenue and EPS quarter of the year.
Rick Smith
Management
And Dan, this is Rick. The only other thing I’d add to that is you have heard us say in the past that we cannot focus on any one quarter at a time. There's always more [ph] that Lee just articulated, but just general trends throughout a year. Dan Levine – Robert W. Baird: Great. And one last question, just with the industry consolidation we are seeing in financial services. Have you started to see any impact there from pricing as well as any potential new customer wins where the acquirer went out and where you have systems?
Rick Smith
Management
No, I mean, because we're still in that consolidating phase right now. As I've said many times before, I think the consolidation, one, it’s not over, it’s going to continue. I think it’s going to provide some opportunities, and we have some threats. I think what is really exciting, Dan, for us is to go in – we are the only ones in the US who have such a unique offering of being able to leverage our capabilities for big banks now. And almost every bank does some level of mortgage. We’ve got the Equifax Settlement Services, which is two years in the making and running at full speed and is very unique. We’ve got every bank now wants employment and income data. We are the only one that has a database of 189 million records on employment and income, and then our credit, very robust credit file. We are trying to leverage those capabilities and offering opportunities in solutions to customers that no one else can offer. So even if it consolidates, Dan, my charter to the team, to Dan and to Bill, is you should be growing share, growing revenue over time because you’ve got unique offerings that no one else has. Dan Levine – Robert W. Baird: Great. Thanks, guys.
Rick Smith
Management
Yes.
Operator
Operator
And we’ll take our next question from Jaime Brandwood with UBS. Jaime Brandwood – UBS: Good morning. I have a couple of questions if I may. I just wanted to start by looking at your USCIS division, I think you talked about the volumes in the core product being down 14% year-over-year. And from memory, that’s a lot worse than what you were seeing in Q3. Well, I think it was almost flat. Just wondering what caused that pretty significant deterioration?
Rick Smith
Management
Well, like I said, I think, Jaime, the revenue for online was down 10%. You have a mix in changes which you referenced 14%, which would be the volume. But the revenue was actually down 10%. And you got – Jaime Brandwood – UBS: Just in terms of the volume, why did the volume get so much worse? I seem to recall that was almost flat year-over-year in Q3 and now it’s moved to minus 14% year-over-year in Q4.
Rick Smith
Management
What you saw was in the September timeframe – if you guys gets the Q3 data for me. Dan – or Jeff, get that. Let me just pull up the Q3, Jaime. Jaime Brandwood – UBS: Sure.
Rick Smith
Management
But what you saw was in – when AIG and Lehman and others went bankrupt in late September, that just caused massive panic and shutdown with the system for the fourth quarter on online. And we actually came in, if you recall, last time we talked, we came into the third quarter with actually some optimism. We saw a very good start to the third quarter, and that really plummeted in the second half of the third quarter, continuing into the fourth quarter. Quick question, Jeff, just what was the volume in the fourth quarter percentage – third quarter, I mean? Do you have it or not? Or we’ll get back to Jaime. Do you have it or not?
Jeff Dodge
Management
It’s about 3%.
Rick Smith
Management
Okay. Jaime, you’re – yes. So your instinct was correct. We had a better performance in the third quarter and fourth quarter. And that’s really the rationale when you saw that massive dislocation that occurred in mid-September and it continued through the balance of the quarter. Jaime Brandwood – UBS: So the kind of – the exit rate on that minus 14% as we enter January, was it still as bad as minus 14%, or was there some degree of improvement or not?
Rick Smith
Management
Yes, I don’t study every week on online, but my assumption is, as we look at the forecast, Jamie, for the first quarter is no real improvement in the online volume and revenue in the first quarter for USCIS. Jaime Brandwood – UBS: And what was core product pricing doing in the quarter? Again I seem to recall previous quarter, in Q3, pricing was down around 6% or 7% year-over-year. Just wondering if that improved or not.
Rick Smith
Management
Yes. That pricing was actually positive in fourth quarter of 2008 versus fourth quarter of 2007. And in general terms, as I’ve always said – and I can’t remember who asked the question earlier, even though our customers are under significant pressure and everyone is competitive out there, we are not seeing any significant movement in pricing versus the historically trends. But specific to your question, fourth quarter is actually up 2%. Jaime Brandwood – UBS: Up 2%, okay. And then moving on to your commentary on the UK, I think you said that – and again, your UK core product volumes were up 2% and yet your overall European cost of currency revenue growth rate was minus 8%. And I know you’ve got Spain in there as well, but the UK is the focus here. How do you sort of square both two together, the 2% increase in volume and the 8% reduction in year-on-year revenue?
Lee Adrean
Management
The UK and Europe in total is more than just the online business. The walk from plus 2% on the UK volume, pricing was down around 5%. And the other portions of our business, particularly marketing services, which are not included in the transaction volume, were down as US financial institutions did the same thing. The UK institutions pulled back the same way the US institutions have. And again I would emphasize that quarter-to-quarter pricing – I say pricing in the loosest of terms, quarter-to-quarter pricing, number one, can fluctuate a fair amount because of the different mix of customers we may have. For instance, Rick said that our fourth quarter US average – and instead of calling it pricing, I might call it average revenue per transaction, favorable 4%. Some of that reflected we did have some specific statements where we had an opportunity to improve pricing. But we also thought a more – Jaime Brandwood – UBS: Sorry. Can you repeat that number again? I missed that. Did you say plus 4% in average revenue per transaction was?
Rick Smith
Management
Yes. Jaime, that's a combination of price, which your question to me was price, up 2%. When you combine price with mix, which is a different product mix, that was another 2%. In aggregate, the actual transaction – revenue per transaction was up 4%. Pure price. Jaime Brandwood – UBS: In the US.
Rick Smith
Management
Correct. Jaime Brandwood – UBS: Okay, right. Yes.
Lee Adrean
Management
So I’d just caution people to not interpret too much into any one quarter because we will see that jump around a little bit, particularly due to mix considerations. Jaime Brandwood – UBS: Okay. And then just lastly, if I may, just taking a kind of a wider enterprise view and vis-à-vis kind of cost-cutting initiatives and restructurings and what have you, are you willing to hazard as a guess as to how much cost you might be able to take out of the business over the course of this year on an annual run rate basis in dollar terms?
Rick Smith
Management
Jaime, was your question on a global basis or specific? Jaime Brandwood – UBS: Yes. I’m taking a look at the whole enterprise, and as you look to kind of maybe cut costs and make the business a bit more efficient given the prevailing economic environment, are you willing to hazard a guess as to how much dollar cost you might be able to take out of the business (inaudible)?
Rick Smith
Management
Let me answer it this way. We have been at this now systematically by trying to improve processes versus just ripping costs out since the second quarter of 2007. So we are almost into our second year of this. And I gave you a number I think Lee reinforced that number that our annual run rate of expenses entering this year is already $70 million below last year. On top of that, I mentioned that lean, we got a great leader in Andy Bodea and his team who really understand the tool, we're deploying that now globally. That saved $12 million along last year in its first year of implementation. So we’ll continue to manage expenses with one goal in mind, and that is delivering a balanced margin for this business. We’ve always talked about trying to protect that margin in 24% to 26% range. And we will manage NPI and growth, and we will manage expenses to protect that margin range. Jaime Brandwood – UBS: And I mean – sorry to hog the quick Q&A. This will be my last one. But I know you obviously talked about new product introduction, I think, helping you delivering something like $70 million of incremental revenue this year or in the quarter. I mean, just from a kind of new product sales force investment and what have you, are you pulling back on that at all? Are you pulling back given the environment?
Rick Smith
Management
No. Jaime Brandwood – UBS: On either your sales force or your product innovation, product introduction?
Rick Smith
Management
Absolutely not. And a great indicator is look at our CapEx guidance that we gave you. We gave you a guidance of $75 million to I think it was $110 million, up significantly over historical patterns if you look back in 2002, ’03, ’04, and ’05. We are going to continue investing in new products. This market will turn. I can’t tell you if it’s going to turn in late ’09, 2010, but it will turn. And the day we stop investing in our future of new products is the day we stop growing. So, no, we’re going to continue investing in growth. Jaime Brandwood – UBS: Okay. Thanks a lot for your time.
Rick Smith
Management
Sure, thanks.
Operator
Operator
And we’ll take our next question from Michael Meltz with JP Morgan. Michael Meltz – JP Morgan: Thank you. I think I have three questions. Lee, the currency drag in ’09, I’m modeling – or I think I’m getting to a number of $70 million to $75 million for the full year, assuming current rates, is that the range you are thinking about?
Lee Adrean
Management
Yes, it’s pretty close. I think literally at current rates it would be about $82 million. Michael Meltz – JP Morgan: And what's the flow-through at the EBIT line on that?
Lee Adrean
Management
It’s comparable to essentially the equivalent of our international operating margin, which is about 30%. Michael Meltz – JP Morgan: Okay. The last question that the guy before me asked here, another way of asking it, your volume numbers at consumer online, do you think you are losing share or do you think some of it has to do with mix like you might not be as big in collections or some other areas? Rick, can you talk about that please?
Rick Smith
Management
Sure, Michael, I’ll be very clear there. I mentioned in my opening comments we made some tough calls to walk from some business that we didn’t want. We always do that. We have not lost a piece of business that we had that we wanted to keep. And I mean that sincerely. We go through – and I know there’s been some talk about that around the circles, but we go through account-by-account reviews on a monthly basis. By product line by product line by product line, we have not lost a single piece of business that I can think of any significance since I have been here. And TALX is helping us bring in new value-add. I’m confident we’re going to gain share over the next couple of years as we leverage the Work Number. Experian and TU may have invested earlier in the cycle on things like collections and growing that at a fast rate, but we are not losing share where we have current share. Michael Meltz – JP Morgan: Your point on walking away on deals, what’s an example on something that you – I mean, give us an example, please?
Rick Smith
Management
I don’t want to be specific here, but it’s something that we always do. We have a very detailed pricing committee, Michael, that's led by a pricing guy that's independent. And finance is there and the business team is there. We go through every single large transaction, and sometimes we look at it and say, it just doesn't make sense and we walk from it. I can reinvest my money elsewhere in good profitable customers and protect that margin. Michael Meltz – JP Morgan: Your point on cost take-outs – I think this is my last question – you said $70 million annualized? I don’t know what to do with that number. Are you saying take your expenses in full year ’08 of $144.2 million and deduct $70 million, and that’s the run rate? Or Lee, how should I be thinking of that?
Lee Adrean
Management
No. The comparable we have made is – and of course, this may change the business conditions, but we have given guidance to expect revenue in a similar range to the prior year. We think our operating cost – constant dollar operating cost Q4 – Q1 this year versus Q1 last year is down at an annualized – at $18 million on a quarter, which annualizes to $72 million. So rather than try to track what did this initiative claim it delivered and what did this initiative claim it delivered, et cetera, et cetera is not a very simple what’s constant dollar operating expenses this year’s first quarter versus last year’s first quarter. Michael Meltz – JP Morgan: Okay. Your point on CIS, if you’re saying revenues roughly the same, maybe down a couple million bucks in Q1 versus Q4, I assume your cost take-outs help you on expenses. Are you – is your goal to keep margin at 36% or will it dip below that at CIS?
Rick Smith
Management
Michael Meltz – JP Morgan: But not necessarily in ’09?
Rick Smith
Management
No. I’d expect them to be in that general range for ’09 as well. Michael Meltz – JP Morgan: Okay. Thanks for your time.
Rick Smith
Management
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
And we have no further questions. I’d like to turn it back over to Mr. Dodge for any additional or closing remarks.
Jeff Dodge
Management
All right. I 'd want to thank everybody for participating on the call, and we'll make ourselves available throughout the day if you have any additional questions. That will conclude the call. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
And once again, that does conclude today’s call. Thank you for your participation. And have a great day.