Douglas Baker
Analyst · William Blair & Company
Good afternoon. Look, I want to offer perspective on 2 key points, one is our business performance in the second quarter and then also our outlook for the year. And then on the planned merger with Nalco. So first, our business. I characterize our second quarter as a very good quarter. We don't use the words "very good" around here easily. I would say if you take a look at our sales and you exclude FX, foreign exchange and acquisitions, we grew it plus 5%. And so we're really closing in on our 6% to 8% historic target much faster than we had predicted. In the last call, we predicted that we'd start reaching, if you will, the 6% mark by year end. And so clearly, we're on a pace to do that in a much shorter time period. The sales acceleration was really driven by our own efforts. We've got great innovation, it's working, being accepted by customers. Our team is doing a great job driving it. We also, in part because of innovation, have great new business activity. We've had very strong results and we're very pleased with what we're doing in the market in terms of capturing new customers and driving new sales. New growth initiatives are working. We had strong healthcare, strong emerging markets, strong wool [ph] results, Water, Energy & Waste results in this quarter. And I would say, the sales acceleration and the stronger growth initiatives are very important because the market still is quite slow as we projected. So really, market turnaround would be in front of us. It certainly isn't behind us at this point. If we turn to Europe, Europe, you saw improving growth on the top, albeit still slow, 2% to 3% range. Good margin expansion, 130 basis points year-on-year for the quarter and we're on track for the year to hit our target in spite of, really, unplanned, insignificant raw material increases that are affecting all of our regions but also Europe. Now we also want to say that we expect a little lumpy story in the second half. In Q3, we will have raw materials peaking in Europe and we also have a year-on-year bonus comparison, which frankly turns favorable in Q4 and is a little bit of a problem in Q3. So we expect strong results in Europe margins in the second half, but it's going to be lumpy, much, much -- really strong in Q4, not as strong in Q3. We want to make sure that's clear. Margins overall. They are gaining traction. We've got pricing coming on, the raw price delta declines as the year progresses, not because we expect our raw material prices to decrease this year but simply because the base gets easier. Last year, you had raw material inflation in the second half versus the first half. So if you will, what we have to overcome in terms of year-on-year comps becomes easier in the second half. The second quarter globally or in total for the business was our toughest comp period for raw material or for margin compression. So that's behind us and we know with pricing and frankly easier comps, our margin story is going to get stronger, which is important because this going to leave us in a very good position with very strong momentum, leaving the year and moving into 2012. So as a result of our sales acceleration, margin recovery, we raised our forecast for the year, and it now stands on an EPS basis of a 13% to 15% increase versus last year. So in that, we expect to have another very, very solid year this year and are excited about what's going on in our business. So now let me turn to the planned merger with Nalco. Let me start with the logic. And so we've talked to a lot of people about this. At the end of the day, we're excited about this merger because it makes us a bigger, faster and better growth company. It equips us to grow our existing portfolio in a much better way long term. Currently, if you look at our current customer set at Ecolab, over 50% of them buy water processing management sustainability services, not always from Nalco, but from a provider of those services. It is an existing revenue stream in those markets. Our customer needs in this area are growing. Water, while everybody talks about the secular trends, is becoming a real issue, particularly in our industrial set but also in hotels and hospitals in terms of their need for competency, help assuring quality water, handling ebb flow to water and handling the captive water in their environment. For us, long term, it was very clear that strategically, we were going to need enhanced water competency to thrive going forward. Wasn't urgent, but it was very important. And we knew it's something we're going to need to do to make sure that we continue to thrive long term. This combination opens up great innovation opportunity for us to meet our customer needs as we work to couple this and package deals in a way that we can do it uniquely, given the combination of our businesses. It also will bring core innovation that we can leverage back in our traditional businesses, too. Second, we bought a great company. Nalco has the best market position. Number one. [indiscernible] technology, they're the clear leaders in this business in this industry, and buying the leader is really going to put us in a very advantageous position. We also believe that we will enhance Nalco's ability to compete going forward. Number one, we believe, they say, they have been somewhat hindered from moving as fast as they want because of their cash or their debt position. That gets cleared up. We add significant management bandwidth. Why? Because we're taking their talented team, coupling with our talented team and we know there's overlap that goes away, we will have additional capabilities and we run identical models, which means we can add value right away. There is great technology overlap and there are tremendous CTC, Circle the Customer, opportunities. We estimate that there will be $0.5 billion in CTC sales over the first 5 years, which equates to about 1 point of additional sales in each of those years. And it's really because there is over $1 billion opportunity up in B. There's also great opportunity at Textile Care, hotels, healthcare, et cetera. There is significant opportunity to get after. Ultimately, the combination opens up a broader list of M&A bolt-on and technology play opportunities for us. Net, we expect to live at the top end of our traditional organic range, call it 8% plus moving forward, which means we will grow, and that is without M&A, because when you start adding M&A, we really believe we've got a very, very strong top line growth story as a result of this combination. Net, we've got a faster growth portfolio, chasing $100 billion opportunity. The fit of these businesses is excellent. They fit together very naturally. We have very similar cultures, servicing growth mindsets. We have very similar technologies and most importantly, we have nearly a mirror image in terms of the business model we deploy in our markets. Taking technology and field service, coupled in unit to deliver outsized value to customers. And we trade for product premiums, but deliver enhanced value through energy, water and other savings. That is exactly the model we deploy. That is the model they deploy. So we understand how this business works and are quite confident we can add value, given our long history in running these types of models. This combination creates real cost synergies. We have conservatively estimated these to be $150 million on a run rate basis. We project that we will be at full $150 million run rate at the end of year 2, which means at the end of 2013, there is significant corporate in G&A overlap, there are purchasing synergies in supply chain. We see 0 synergies coming from R&D in field sales and service. This is principally about growth, but there are great cost synergies and we plan to get after them quite aggressively. On top of the cost, there's also interest and tax savings synergies as well. Net, the sum total of the cost synergies more than exceeded value, the premium we paid for this business and handily covers it, which brings me to deal valuation. We paid a real premium on this business but we get an excellent deal for our shareholders. We spent a lot of time on due diligence. We're confident that their business is accelerating, that their margins are on track to improve because they're getting pricing. They've recently made, we think, very smart, but P&L punishing investments and expanding R&D significantly, which we think they did the right thing, on adding 500 net sales people, 900 specifically in the emerging markets. So their P&L base is quite solid. It is fully invested and we have not, I don't think, seen all the benefits of these investments because they don't appear immediately. We believe they are poised for strong performance, and the combination of these businesses only enhances their opportunities going forward. The deal, as a result of the cost synergies alone, is accretive. In 2012, we talked about $0.10. Nearly $0.08 of that is coming from the cost savings. $0.24 will come from the cost savings in 2013, and $0.34 in 2014. So you can see just from the cost savings, this does not include growth, it doesn't include growth synergies. The cost savings alone drive significant accretion as we go through this. Last point, enterprise valuation. Ecolab has earned a premium over the years because one, the market understands our near and long-term growth story and buys into it; and two, the market understands our model and rewards us for our transparency, predictability and consistency. We believe firmly in our ability to continue to deliver on both of these fronts going forward. Our growth story, we believe, has only been enhanced as a result of this combination, we chase a bigger opportunity, there are clear CTC opportunities. The portfolio, we think, is naturally a faster growth portfolio, which is why we are talking about 8% plus organic growth going forward. Our consistency is also an area we believe we can drive great improvements in their business. And in total, our consistency is driven by steps we take. It is not naturally occurring, not like gravity in our business. We do a number of things which drives this over time, which we also believe can be successfully applied to their business. How we procure, how we reward and compensate people, how we incent customers. All are designed to reduce, not accentuate, cyclicality. Most importantly, how we manage. We know the details of our business. We get into it monthly. We understand the issues early. We develop excellent forecast capabilities. We demand it of our general managers. All of this allows us to start predicting and driving consistency in our business, and all of the above are going to enhance our ability to do the same with them. And we are quite confident we will end up with a business which is predictable and ultimately consistent. So in the end, we know that the only thing that really determines value in any enterprise is how successfully one executes against marked strategies. And this is exactly the case here. And we like this deal. We think it's strategically perfect for us. It is a very natural fit. It's ripe with opportunity. And so, our commitment is to realize the value for our shareholders, which we are very confident we can do. And we will do it predictably and consistently, and we will ultimately drive, we think, a very successful enterprise that will show value for customers, for our employees and for shareholders. So with that, let me turn it to Mike.