Looking ahead, our priorities are clear
Management
deepen structural efficiencies, grow through value accretive opportunities, strengthen the core business, and accelerate the development of gas as a pillar of energy transition. We are evolving to a more diversified model, focused on stable results and disciplined capital allocation. Thank you. We will now open the floor for the Q&A session. Operator All the analysts to choose in the interpretation globe the language you will be asking the question, otherwise we cannot hear you. Daniel Guardiola from BTG is online with a question. Please go ahead. Daniel Guardiola Good morning, thank you for your presentation. I'd like to talk about two things. First, about the acquisition of Brava, I'd like to know what price did you purchase the 26% that you already agreed with the investors group. When do you plan to launch the IPO in the market? Is there any risk to expand this IPO for 100% of the stocks considering that you will be the new controller? If you do not reach that 25%, can you declare the IPO as deserted? That's when it comes to the transaction of Brava. About Brava, looking at the many reserves that Brava has re-recorded in past years, I'd like to know if you considered or do you have an estimate or adjustments for the reserves since you consolidate this with the balance of Ecopetrol, incorporating them with the methodology applied by Ecopetrol. Last, it's about the sensitivity you expect for the remaining nine months of the year, the sensitivity of the EBITDA and free cash flow if the dollar is above the price you have. Thank you. Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra When we look at the agreements we have with each of this once we close the transaction. The IPO is projected to be launched this second quarter. It will be announced. When we have the terms agreed or according to the schedule, but the purpose is to acquire at least 51%, and if we can't reach that percent, we will not be part of the business. When it comes to the reserves, understanding that there are major volumes today in the company, we have to keep in mind that they have a methodology that's different to what we apply. We apply SEC and they, the IFRS. Once the transaction is closed, we can validate the volumes according to our regulation and do everything according to the volumes identified. When it comes to the CapEx guide and the gas flow, we have been making updates of prices monthly, and we've been adjusting and placing the resources where we find the most value within the projects. That's what we're seeking right now. The Brent of the year, we're analyzing again this and monthly, understanding that for the last two and a half months, we've been undergoing the process of high prices because of the conflict in the Middle East, the sensibility of the EBITDA cash flow. We have metrics, and let me give the microphone to Camilo Barco to talk about this. Camilo Barco Muñoz Thank you for your question, good morning, Daniel. My name is Camilo Barco. Allow me to particularly refer to your question. Everything has to do with the guidance and the multiples that can give us at least an orientation or a guide of what we can expect this year with this new price setting in terms of CapEx, EBITDA, profitability, and possibly cash flow. I think that what's most important has been said. Regularly, we make a review of projections, of course, in this highly volatile and uncertain time. This is very much related to the duration of the market disruption, and it's a hard question to answer still. We have projections that are updated, aligned with the market's consensus. Some of the projections of agents are all kept in mind. We work with a margin that or better range between $83 and $93 per barrel for the rest of the year. Emphasizing, of course, not only the Brent prices, but also the exchange rate and the differentials of products have major differences in the indicators. When it comes to the theoretical exercise and clarifying that this gives us a range, but still these are more approximate than anything else, we can say that $1 variation in the price of Brent has an effect on the pesos and the net profit for every variation of $1 on the Brent price. On the other hand, the exchange rate, I said, is an important factor, the exogenous that has an influence on the results, and this has an effect of about COP 1.6 trillion on the EBITDA, and with the variation of COP 100 on the quote of the exchange rate. When it comes to the net profit, an effect of about COP 800 million. That's like an overview of the indicator that gives us a guidance of where the results can stand for the year so far of 2026 with the Brent in a range of $83-$93 per barrel and an exchange rate between COP 3,600 and COP 4,000. Daniel Guardiola Thank you so much for your answers. Operator We are also joined by Katherine Ortiz from Corredores Davivienda. Katherine Ortiz Sogamoso Hello to everyone. Can you hear me? Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra Yes, we can. Katherine Ortiz Sogamoso Thank you. I have several questions. Following the topic of the acquisition, just to confirm Daniel's question, at least 51% means that there's a chance of an IPO for 100%. Also, I'd like to ask for more information on your outlook on the metrics to leverage initially with the acquisition, and how do you expect the performance and when will you reach again levels that are more optimal for Ecopetrol and the management given to the pressure of liquidity, keeping in mind that financing would be made with a bridge short-term loan. I'd like to understand the strategy to refinance once the acquisition takes place. That's regarding the acquisition. I have another question related to the FEPC. On the fourth quarter, we saw that FEPC generated a super profit surplus of COP 300 effect of the higher prices of oil. I would like to know monthly, how much is the accumulation of the surplus of FEPC since March in average? I don't know if you have the calculation of how much will the prices increase of fuels to have again at least a zero level, or to go back to the super profit we had. That's regarding the FEPC. Lastly, I'd like to understand a bit more the context of deficit of gas. Ecopetrol has been very active, and you showed us, making agreements and leading this process to increase the gas through new regasifiers. Regarding the regasification agreement with Puerto Bahía, could you please tell us more about this business with the Ecopetrol and the commercialization process that you mentioned that took place in February and March? What percentage was contracted and commercialized, and if this was on a seven-year term? I'm asking this because one of the biggest concerns is that there's a major offer now for regasification projects, and there's a chance in the future of having new projects. And there's a concern on the profitability and of the chance of capturing or recovering better probably the investment in these projects. I'd like to get to know more about this process of commercialization. Those are my questions. Thank you. Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra Good morning, Katherine. Juan Carlos Hurtado. Let me begin with your second question. What do we have to date? An accumulated COP 4.2 trillion. In the past every month, billion pesos debt could be generating the FEPC. We've been working on this, like this, to be more precise. With regards to your first question, we are going for the 51%. If we don't reach that percentage, we're not part of the business. We're not gonna ask for more than 51%. That gives you a precise answer. Camilo, could you give us a hand with the other question? Camilo Barco Muñoz Katherine, good morning. Thank you for your question. I'm going to specifically refer to the topics related to finance, the Brava transaction, and several of the finance and metrics that we use. Let me expand a bit on these metrics. When it comes to the Brava transaction, let me refer to two things. First, in terms of the debt of the EBITDA of the target firm, Brava, the metric is similar to that of Ecopetrol, between 2x and 2.5x the EBITDA, clarifying that it has a robust cash position, which allows its net debt versus EBITDA is substantially lower. This means that still using a financing, a bridge, on a short-term basis, it does not impact, but just marginally even after post-acquisition. What does this mean? We will have our indicator still at 2.2x debt EBITDA. You mentioned before that this indicator was closer to 2.5x at the end of the last year. It's important to keep in mind with the new price scenario and the better EBITDAs and the lower exchange rate, today we have an indicator that gives us an additional margin as that's closer to 2.1x or 2.2x debt EBITDA. If we add to this that a good part of the debt comes from ISA, we see the indicator of 1.6x debt EBITDA for Grupo Ecopetrol without excluding ISA. This is healthy, and it gives you an idea not only of the position of liquidity, but the capacity of debt that the Group can have under these conditions. I would stop here in terms of financing, and ahead perhaps we can provide additional details. Bayron Triana Arias When it comes to the energy transition, the Group has been committed to supply gas through import sources at the lowest price and as soon as possible. What the alternatives we found, the Puerto Bahía project, a project that has a value, a promise to contribute gas to the country in 2026. We signed an agreement of logistics and integral service with Puerto Bahía, in which they are in charge of making the investment, assuming all the risks of development and construction of the project, while we commercialize the molecule, and we pay them for the regasification process day by day. When it comes to the commercial process, we placed 250 GW day, average day, in the next seven years, and it has two phases. The first phase, the first two years of 167 sq ft, and the other 170. The priority in the commercialization is of the Ecopetrol Group in both processes. The process launched, we took gas to 13 agents, where we have the main distributors of the country, and they are commercializing and generators agents, and this allows us to give a better situation for this process. Camilo Barco Muñoz Katherine, Camilo Barco, again, I was seeing that I missed something to talk about in your question about financing, so allow me to refer to the refinancing strategy. We said that firstly, the financing of the acquisition of Brava would be at, with a bridge, it's important to say that as of now, we're working on the takeout and on financing this on a long term. For this, we are assessing all of the alternatives possible. We constantly monitor the capital market and the conditions. Initially, we do not see yet conditions that have the level or enough attractiveness to make a decision on that matter. We are evaluating, again, different alternatives, banking and in the market. Also, for this takeout, surely we will not refinance 100% of the amount of the transaction. It will be a lower percentage since we are foreseeing that part of the flows used will come from reassigning CapEx and rotations of portfolio. I think that with this we have a good framework of the scenario to refinance in the next year. Operator Perfect. Thank you. Let me confirm from Puerto Bahía, of the COP 126 million. You gave the 126 million to these three agents or? Bayron Triana Arias Hello, Katherine. Because of commercial and strategic topics, we cannot give you the exact value. Yes, these were assigned to the 13 agents because of the amount gas. As you said, because of the El Niño, we are even going to place more amounts when the infrastructure is built. It's the alternative 126 million, we see with the regasification backup trains, we can even place more gas to face the El Niño weather phenomenon. It is important to clarify that Puerto Bahía still works on trying to place more amounts, and there are scenarios in which we can place even 300 GW a day. We're working in different scenarios. We have line baseline of the 126 million, and most of it is commercialized and sold. Operator Perfect. Thank you to you all.