Felipe Pardo
Analyst · Raymond James
Yes, so we've said before, and this has not changed, that there are 4 things that we are doing. So, there's four tracks that we are following. The first one is exploration, and we've talked about that in-depth. The second one is increasing the recovery factors of the conventional plays and the conventional fields, and Rafael was talking about that when he talked about the pilots and such. The third thing is unconventionals. And the fourth thing is M&A and acquiring reserves going forward. In terms of the unconventionals, just to give you the context, we've - and these are Ecopetrol's numbers and views, we think that the middle mag has around 2 to 7 billion barrels of reserves, recoverable reserves. There's different numbers from different consultants and experts that this is our view, clearly, a view that has to be proven. So, what we're actually suggesting we need to do is to start what we've described as a pilot. And it's a pilot that will be obtained, it's self-contained, it's limited. It provides the ability to have something that's measured, where people that have apprehensions, I mean, probably all the right apprehensions and there's a lot of myths around unconventionals, that they can actually be part of a pilot, and this will allow us to do several things. First one is to create the environmental baseline in the area. Second, to understand from a hydraulic point of view in terms of water and where the aquifers are and everything else and potential risks to aquifers. The third thing is, is there a risk of induced seismicity? The fourth thing, to do a lot of work around communication and basically helping people understand through science and data and facts, some of the truths around unconventional development, and there's some good examples, both in the U.S. and Canada, for example, around that. And the fourth thing is - or the last thing is, how do we ensure that the authorities in Colombia are up to speed and actually have developed the capability to ensure that we can look at this in a way that's constructive? At the end of the day, we do see unconventionals as a very important part of Colombia's future. If we want to maintain energy sufficiency and energy security, we want to be able to load our refineries in 10 or 15 years with crude that we produce in country and not be exposed to the fluctuations and uncertainty of international prices. Clearly, unconventional provides a very, very good opportunity that can change not only the area, but could change the country overall.