Scott Schenkel
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open
Thanks, Devin. Let's begin with Q3 performance, starting on slide four of the earnings presentation. In Q3, we generated $2.4 billion of total revenue, $0.48 of non-GAAP EPS and $720 million of free cash flow, while repurchasing $907 million of our stock. Moving to active buyers, in the quarter, we increased our total active buyer base to 168 million, while trailing 12-month growth was stable at 5%, driven by modest marketplace buyer growth acceleration, offset by StubHub. As a reminder, with the close of our investment in Flipkart, we are no longer reporting approximately 4 million domestic active buyers in India. Underlying marketplace buyer growth, our retention rates improved year-over-year. And while we benefited from good trends in new buyer acquisition from SEO, we have not yet seen material improvements in our organic channel. New buyer acquisition continues to be a key area of focus for us as we roll out new product experiences and market the eBay brand. On slide six, in Q3, we enabled $21.7 billion of total GMV, up 7% year-over-year, accelerating two points versus the prior quarter. By geography, the US generated $8.8 billion of GMV, up 5%, while international delivered $12.9 billion of GMV, up 9% year-over-year. GMV outpaced sold item growth this quarter due to a mix of higher ASP products and strong C2C growth acceleration, which has a higher average ASP. Moving to revenue, we generated total net revenues of just over $2.4 billion, up 8% on an FX-neutral basis and up 7% organically. We delivered $1.9 billion of transaction revenue, up 7%, and $530 million of MS&O revenue, up 9%. Turning to slide eight, our marketplace platform GMV grew 7% in Q3, a 1-point acceleration versus the prior quarter. US GMV accelerated 1-point quarter-over-quarter to 6% and international GMV grew at 9%, a 3-point acceleration versus the prior quarter, driven primarily by the strength in Europe. Underlying those trends, our B2C growth rate improved 1 point to 7% year-over-year. C2C growth was 9%, accelerating 6 points as we've seen the benefits of a simplified listing experienced and use promotional pricing to attract more consumer sellers and inventory to the eBay platform. Total marketplaces revenue was $1.9 billion, up 7% year-over-year. Transaction revenue grew 8% and accelerated 1 point versus Q2, driven by volume and the impact of our Q2 pricing changes, partially offset by incentives to activate C2C sellers. Marketing services and other revenue grew 6%, an acceleration of 2 points versus the prior quarter. Moving to slide nine, total StubHub GMV grew 2% year-over-year, accelerating 7 points from Q2, with international GMV growing at over 60%. Revenue grew 5%, in line with the prior quarter. For North America, while we saw good improvement and good performance in theater and boxing events, overall growth was below our expectations, as Devin mentioned, and will likely continue to be under pressure through Q4. Moving to slide 10, in Q3, Classifieds grew revenue 13%, a 2-point acceleration versus Q2, mainly driven by our mobile.de motors platform in Germany. Looking forward, we expect traffic, engagement and mobile app monetization to drive classifieds revenue growth in the low to mid-teens. Turning to slide 11 and major cost drivers, in Q3, we delivered non-GAAP operating margin of 29.6%, roughly flat versus last year. Cost of revenue increased year-over-year, driven primarily by our first-party inventory program in Korea. Q3 sales and marketing expenses decreased as a percent of revenue as we continue to drive productivity and marketing investments versus the prior-year. Absolute dollars were flat sequentially as we continued to invest in marketplace brand advertising, expanding our campaigns from the US to the UK and Australia. Product development costs were flat as a percentage of revenue as we drive operating leverage, while increasing the pace of innovation and product enhancements. G&A expense was roughly flat, with a slight year-over-year increase, driven primarily by data and information security investments. Turning to EPS, on slide 12. In Q3, we delivered $0.48 of non-GAAP EPS, up 7% versus prior-year. EPS growth was driven by topline growth and the net benefit of share repurchases, partially offset by a reduction in foreign-exchange hedging gains versus last year. GAAP EPS for the quarter was $0.48, up $0.12 versus last year. This includes $167 million gain on the sale of our eBay India business, which was completed in July as part of our Flipkart investment. Stock-based compensation for the quarter including related taxes was $119 million, up 12% on a year-over-year basis, as we continue to utilize equity programs to compete for talent in a highly competitive market. While our non-GAAP financial results exclude stock-based compensation, we take a considered approach to granting stock. And per our capital allocation strategy, we are committed to programmatically offsetting this dilution via stock repurchases. Amortization of intangibles was $16 million, up $1 million versus the prior year. As always, you can find the detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures in our press release and earnings presentation. On slide 13, in Q3, we generated $720 million of free cash flow, which was up 17% on a year-over-year basis, primarily driven by the timing differences of cash tax payments and capital expenditures. CapEx was 7% of revenue in Q3 and we continue to expect to be in the range of 7% to 9% of revenue for the year. Turning to slide 14, we ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and non-equity investment of $11.4 billion, of which $2.8 billion is in the US. As you recall, in Q2, we added $2.5 billion of debt, which we said we would utilize for refinancing and general corporate purposes. And during Q3, $1.45 billion of debt matured and was repaid. In addition, we completed our $500 million cash investment into Flipkart. Additionally, we repurchased 25 million shares at an average price of $36.14 a share, amounting to $907 million in total. We ended the quarter with $2.6 billion of share repurchase authorization remaining. Through the first three quarters of the year, we have returned nearly $1.8 billion of capital via share repurchases. This represents approximately 80% of free cash flow based on the midpoint of our full-year guidance range. We will continue to be opportunistic through the remainder of this year. These actions all demonstrate how our capital allocation strategy is working to optimize our financial flexibility, access to debt and our cost of capital to enable capital return and drive long-term shareholder value. Turning to our Q4 guidance on slide 15, we are projecting revenue between $2.58 billion and $2.62 billion, representing FX-neutral growth of 6% to 8% year-over-year. Our guidance assumes further improvements in marketplaces volume and revenue growth, offset by the timing and length of the Korean Thanksgiving holiday and the aforementioned StubHub headwinds. We expect non-GAAP EPS of $0.57 to $0.59 per share, representing year-over-year growth of 6% to 10% on an as-reported basis. EPS growth will be driven by revenue growth and the net benefit of our share repurchase program, offset by continued investments to drive improved user experiences and to market our brand. We expect the impact of foreign exchange on EPS to be approximately 6 points of growth on a year-over-year basis as we lapse significant hedge gains from last year. For Q4, we expect GAAP EPS in the range of $0.40 to $0.45 per share. For the full year, we now expect revenue in the range of $9.53 billion to $9.57 billion, representing organic FX-neutral revenue growth of approximately 7%. We expect non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 30%, non-GAAP EPS in the range of $1.99 to $2.01 per share and free cash flow $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion. We are updating our full-year GAAP EPS guidance to $1.85 to $1.90 per share, reflecting the impact of the previously mentioned gain on the sale of eBay India business in Q3. As we approach 2018, I want to spend a moment to discuss the impact of the new revenue standard ASC Topic 606, which we plan to adopt in Q1. We believe that, under ASC 606, we have certain incentives that could be recognized as sales and marketing expense, which are currently recorded as contra revenue under current guidance. This change has no economic impact, but is simply a change in how we present our financials, resulting in increased revenue, increased expense and lower operating margin with no impact to operating income. The magnitude of this change for fiscal year 2016 is approximately $330 million and we're in the process of quantifying the amount for fiscal year 2017. Additionally, we are currently evaluating other revenue recognition changes under ASC 606 guidelines, although we are still quantifying the potential impact from these changes. We expect to guide 2018 under the new standard and we will provide a historical reconciliation of changes for 2016 and 2017 at that time. In summary, we're pleased with the acceleration we've seen in Q3 across our platforms. The business is responding well to the changes we're making and GMV is growing at the fastest rate in over three years. We look forward to updating you on our progress after the holiday season. Now, we'd be happy to answer your questions. Operator?