Robert Swan
Analyst · Heath Terry of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open
Thanks, Devin. During my discussion I'll reference our earning slide presentation that companies the webcast. Q1 was a great start to the year. We delivered $4.4 billion of total revenue and $0.77 of non-GAAP EPS. We generated $829 million in free cash flow and repurchased 1 billion of our stock. We're making excellent progress on our plans to separate PayPal from eBay and we currently anticipate a third quarter close. In Q1, we generated net revenues of $4.4 billion, up 4% with strength across the Board. Organic revenue growth was 9% in the quarter and currency negatively impacted growth by approximately five points. We delivered revenue at the high end of the guidance range despite the impact of the stronger dollar which negatively impacted Q1 revenue by approximately $30 million since the guidance we provided in January. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.77, up 10%. EPS growth was driven by a strong FX-neural revenue growth, good operating leverage across the company and a lower share count. Operating expenses were 41% of revenue in the quarter, down 120 basis points, driven primarily by the benefits from the steps both Dan and Devin took to streamline their respective businesses, partially offset by provision for transaction loan losses and increased regulatory cost for PayPal. We generated free cash flow of $829 million in the quarter and CapEx was 7% of revenue. From a balance sheet perspective, we ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and non-equity investments of $14.1 billion, including approximately $4.1 billion in the U.S. EBay ended the quarter with $11.7 billion and PayPal with $2.4 billion in cash. We are taking steps to continue to strengthen our balance sheet to provide both businesses with the financial flexibility to pursue their strategic and capital priorities. First, we continue to find an increasing portion of our loan portfolio balance with offshore cash, currently at 78% of total. Second, as part of internal structuring, we plan to move approximately $3.5 billion of cash to PayPal in a tax efficient manner prior to separation. And third, we announced the sale of an 85% participation interest in a pool of U.S. PayPal credit receivables which will free-up approximately $700 million of incremental capacity in the U.S. to fund PayPal's growth. As a technology enabled lender, credit is an important driver of our business, but does not need to be funded by our balance sheet. As a result of this transaction, 2015 operating income will be negatively impacted by approximately $20 million. eBay Inc. has an excellent balance sheet. As a result of these actions, both eBay and PayPal will be well capitalized at separation. Now, let's take a closer look at our segment results. PayPal had a strong quarter; revenue in Q1 was $2.1 billion, up 17% on an FX neutral basis, driven by strong Merchant Services growth and rising engagement per user, which reflects the growing popularity and relevance of the PayPal value proposition throughout the world. A few quick highlights on PayPal operating metrics. TPV on an FX neutral basis grew 25%. Merchant Services FX neutral TPV increased 33%. Transaction margin was down 80 basis points, driven by the rapid growth in Braintree volume and continued penetration of large merchants. Segment margins declined 40 basis points, less than the drop in transaction margin. PayPal generated strong leverage from Dan steps to streamline the business while still investing in Braintree, the PayPal brand and credit. Now let's turn to the marketplaces business. As Devin indicated, marketplaces showed signed of stabilization in Q1; trailing three months active buyer growth and FX neutral GMV were both 5% flat with Q4 results. Marketplaces delivered $2.1 billion in revenue, up 3% on an FX neutral basis. FX neutral transaction revenue grew 3%, while Marketing Services revenue grew 5%, held by strong growth of our global classifieds business. A few quick highlights on marketplaces operating metrics. 12 months active buyer growth was up 8% and sold items growth increased to 9%. Total GMV grew 5%, with U.S. GMV up 2% and international GMV up 7% on an FX neutral basis. We saw an acceleration of U.S. GMV, which is a measure of consumer buying which accelerated by one point versus the fourth quarter. However, this acceleration was offset by a decline in cross-border trade due to the stronger dollar. Segment margin was down 50 basis points from last year. Devin took stretches steps to streamline his organization in the first quarter and is reinvesting in the three priorities he highlighted, a robust commerce platform, a vibrant marketplace, and exceptional customer experiences. Now let's turn to eBay Enterprise. eBay Enterprise generated $1 billion in gross merchandise sales for its clients. GMS grew 8% and same-store sales grew 10%. Revenue was $288 million, up 7%. We continued to expand the Enterprise relationships and are pleased to announce that Enterprise is now the number one ecommerce platform as measured by the 2015 Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide. Segment margin for Enterprise came in at 4.8% relatively flat from last year. We continue to explore strategic alternatives for eBay Enterprise including a full or partial sale or IPO and we'll update you as appropriate. Now let me turn to guidance. We're off to a great start for the year. We are maintaining our full year guidance for FX neutral revenue growth and non-GAAP EPS. However, the first quarter momentum will be offset by the impact of a strengthening U.S. dollar which will cost us approximately $250 million in revenue and $0.05 in non-GAAP EPS versus the full year guidance we provided in January. We're projecting 2015 revenues of $18.35 billion to $18.85 billion, representing growth of 3% to 5%. And we're projecting 2015 non-GAAP EPS of $3.05 to $3.15, up 3% to 7%. And we continue to expect to generate approximately $4 billion in free cash flow for the year with CapEx of 8% to 10% of revenue. CapEx in 2015 will be higher due to one-time costs associated with separating the businesses. Let me provide a little more context on how the U.S. -- the stronger U.S. dollar will impact our full-year results. As you know, we have a very global business with 52% of our revenue and even a greater portion of our net income coming from outside the U.S. Additionally, the U.S. dollar has strengthened versus the euro, pound and Australian dollar by 7%, 1%, and 5% respectively versus when we guided in January. This is driving the impact on our guidance for the year. The marketplace business will bear the brunt of the impact from a stronger dollar with greater than two-thirds of the $250 million or $175 million impacting marketplaces revenue. Going forward, our earnings for the full year are reasonably well hedged, but marketplaces revenue will continue to be exposed if the dollar continues to strengthen. With that full year context, here's a closer look by business unit. The short story, on an FX neutral basis there is no change to the guidance we gave you in January. However, we wanted to provide you with additional details that would allow you to start to model the independent companies. First, a quick housekeeping item. Historically, we have provided segment margins by business unit. As we look to stand up to independent companies, we will transition to providing fully allocated operating margins which include corporate costs, dissynergies associated with the separation and the value transfer associated with the operating agreements. Earlier John discussed the details of the operating agreements. We anticipate the financial implications to be an estimated value transfer of approximately $25 million to $50 million on an annualized basis from PayPal to eBay. So, what does that mean for full year guidance by business unit? For PayPal we continue to expect 15% to 18% revenue growth on an FX neutral basis. We expect that reported revenue at spot rates will be negatively impacted by approximately three points from the stronger U.S. dollar net of hedges. We expect a 19% to 21% fully allocated non-GAAP operating margin, flat to up one point from 2014, which includes four to five points impact from cost to stand up PayPal as an independent company. And as Dan mentioned, we expect free cash flow of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion. For eBay, we continue to expect FX neutral revenue growth between zero and 5%. We expect that reported revenue at spot rates will be negatively impacted by approximately eight points from the stronger U.S. dollar. We expect fully allocated non-GAAP operating margin of 32% to 34%, flat with 2014 and this also includes four to five point impact from stand up costs. And as Devin mentioned, we expect free cash flow of $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion. In summary, we're off to a great start to the year. We have streamlined the organization and had better execution with strength across all three businesses. The full year FX neutral revenue outlook is on track but our strong Q1 momentum will be offset by the negative impact of a stronger dollar. We're making excellent progress on our plans to stand up to independent companies and we expect to conclude the separation in the third quarter. And now we would be happy to answer your questions. Operator?