Operator
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Brinker International Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in listen-only mode and the floor will be open to your questions and comments following the presentation. Now I'd like to turn the floor over to your host Joe Taylor. Sir, the floor is yours. Joe Taylor - Vice President-Investor Relations & Treasurer: Thank you, Dave. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the quarterly earnings call for Brinker International's fourth quarter fiscal 2016. I'm Joe Taylor, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer, and joining me this morning in Dallas are Wyman Roberts, our Chief Executive Officer; and Tom Edwards, our Chief Financial Officer. Our call this morning will begin with comments from both Wyman and Tom after which we will open the call to your questions. And of course before beginning our comments, let me remind everyone of our Safe Harbor regarding forward-looking statements. During our call, management may discuss certain items which are not based entirely on historical facts. Any such items should be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such statements are subject to risk and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ from those anticipated. Such risks and uncertainties include factors more completely described in this morning's press release and the company's filings with the SEC. On the call, we may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that management believes in its review of the business and believes will provide the insight into the company's ongoing operations. With that, I will turn the call over to Wyman [0623NJ-E Wyman Roberts] Thanks, Joe. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today and thanks to those of you who are able to spend time with us at our Investor Day in June. I really appreciate your commitment to learning about us and the story here at Brinker. As you would expect given the short period of time between Investor Day and the end of the fourth quarter our results were in line with what we expected. We delivered fourth quarter earnings per share of $1.24, comp sales were down 1.8% and improvement from down 2% we noted at our June 9 Investor Day, and the good news there is we continue to gain share versus the industry and we ended the year running positive to the category. We had a tough year in fiscal 2016. It did not play out the way we wanted it in terms of sales and traffic but we were still able to deliver the low end of our EPS guidance ending the year at $3.55. And just like any other tough challenge, we faced it, we learned a lot from it and we would use those learnings to shape our strategy going forward. We enter fiscal 2017 believing this will continue to be a tough macro environment. We're not counting on relief from a presidential election or significant improvement in the economy anytime soon. Until household incomes start to see some absolute growth, we believe things will continue to be a challenge for consumers and for our industry. So we took all of that into account as we design the strategy and tactics we laid out for you in June to address consumer's needs for compelling value, quality and transparency and to maintain our strong business model. We're moving forward with a much more aggressive, and what we think a powerful strategy going into 2017, one we believe will continue to capture share in this environment. And we're already gaining traction, starting with our investments in culinary innovation. We introduced our new Sunrise Burger and Ultimate Bacon Burger featuring great new flavor profiles and quality transparent products like cage-free eggs and antibiotic and hormone-free grass-fed patties. We also launched a new ad campaign with more media weight to share this new news, but also to tell this story of our unique Chili's heritage, to talk to consumers in a way only Chili's can, and it's interesting. Though, the brand was launched in the boomer era, and we know this campaign resonates with boomers, it's also compelling to the millennial audience, who embraced the visuals and music of the 70s as more authentic and carefree time. We also know value is still top-of-mind for consumers, so we refreshed our value proposition in our new 3 for Me offering: a salad, classic burger and a mini version of our signature molten dessert for just $10. We're reawakening consumers to the value and quality Chili's has to offer built on a flexible platform that enables us to continually bring new news to consumers to keep our value propositions fresh and relevant. Innovation, value and messaging. It all comes together to upward gain in the short term and create momentum for the long term, and we're already seeing it this strategy pay off. We continue to see sequential improvement in our sales. In fact, in the first quarter, our comp sales are running around flat despite some headwinds with political conventions and the Olympics, and we're back to taking share like we've done for four years prior to fiscal 2016. And as we (05:12) talked with you about in June, we've been working to implement both short and long-term strategies to elevate the bar experience at Chili's and to build on our core equities of margaritas and beer. Our latest promotional and happy hour efforts are driving continued increases in our alcohol sales, and we ended fiscal 2016 with the highest alcohol mix in the brand's history. Just in fiscal July, we sold more than 600,000 Presidente Margaritas. We're targeting the implementation of our new craft beer taps by the end of Q2, and we continue to evaluate more significant longer term enhancements to make our bars a more relevant and compelling place to visit. On the technology front, all the work we did in fiscal 2016 to rebuild our infrastructure behind the scenes enables us now to implement consumer-facing technology that brings more convenience and speed to our guest and drives relevance for the brand in both the short and long term. We're on the verge of converting our proprietary online ordering system over to Olo, which gives us a much stronger engine to power the fastest-growing segment of our business and also enables online pay for our guests. We're also targeting the integration of the Plenti program into My Chili's Rewards during the second quarter which has been a huge undertaking by our IT team. We're about to become the only partner in the Plenti system to offer guests a way to see their account balance and redeem points right at the table without needing assistance from a team member. That gives us a unique advantage offering Plenti guests a simple way to redeem the points they've earned. These powerful strategies only come to a life with effective leadership, and I'm so pleased to have promoted Kelli Valade to President of Chili's. Kelli has been an amazing partner to me and an inspirational leader for the entire operations team. Under her leadership, the team has delivered unprecedented improvements in restaurant margins as well as record-high guest and team member satisfaction scores. During Kelli's 20 years at Brinker, she has proven across multiple disciplines her ability to motivate a team and deliver results. I'm excited for Kelly to take the team forward in fiscal 2017 and beyond. Of course, I'll continue to partner closely with Kelli, Steve and Tom to drive Chili's, Maggiano's and Brinker corporate strategy, and while Kelly is focused on the domestic side of Chili's, I'll lead the international side and partner with the team to drive the global side of our business. The global team continues to lead casual dining in developing new restaurants outside the U.S. We ended fiscal 2016 with 36 new restaurant openings with current and new partners, well ahead of our guidance of 25 restaurants to 30 restaurants and with comp sales up 0.2%. Fourth quarter for global was negatively impacted by the shift in Ramadan which should offset during the first quarter of this year. Fiscal 2017 will be an important year for us as we invest in the brand internationally and pursue growth in new markets like China, Vietnam and South Africa. I'm excited to lead our global development team in those efforts. At Maggiano's, we ended the quarter down 1.7% driven by timing of marketing spending and some seasonal softness in the banquet business. But as we look at the business overall, Maggiano's is an incredibly strong brand with a diverse business model which gives us so many opportunities to meet consumers' needs whether in the dining room for everyday lunch or dinner, a special occasion banquet or utilizing the convenience of our to-go and delivery business. Add those to the new menu that's doing very well in test, which we plan to roll out in the second quarter, as well as our plan to open two new restaurants, and Maggiano's has a comprehensive strategy that we believe will continue to leverage the power of that brand and drive the business forward. So, we ended fiscal 2016 in line with expectations and begin fiscal 2017 with a solid plan to fulfill the commitments we've made to you and our shareholders. We've got great initiatives in place for Chili's domestically. We've got good growth opportunities for Chili's globally. Maggiano's has some robust initiatives around menu, delivery and to-go, and we're pleased with the early results. Given our confidence in the business and our ability to consistently generate strong cash flow in the years ahead, we've also evaluated capital structure and we think it's a good time to increase our leverage to deliver greater shareholder value. And now, I'll turn the call over to Tom to walk you through the details of the quarter and guidance for fiscal 2017. Tom? Thomas Edwards, Jr. - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Thanks, Wyman, and good morning, everyone. Today I'd like to walk through the major drivers of our fourth quarter performance and highlights for full year fiscal 2016. Then I'll turn to our recapitalization initiative and detailed fiscal 2017 guidance. Our fourth quarter earnings per share before special items was $1.24, a 32% increase over prior year. Fourth quarter revenues were $882 million, an increase of 15% over prior year. This reflects contributions from the Pepper Dining acquisition of 8%, the 53rd week for 8%, and increased restaurant capacity of about 1% partially offset by lower comp sales of 1.8%. As we look at Q4 comp sales, we saw a change of momentum for the Chili's business. Chili's gap to Knapp narrowed for the quarter to 60 basis points and improved sequentially throughout the quarter, ending with a positive GAAP in June. We believe we're ending fiscal 2017 with stronger initiatives to continue gaining share and for the month of July our gap to Knapp remain positive. Looking more closely at Q4 sales, total company-owned comp sales declined 1.8%. Maggiano's comp sales were down 1.7% reflecting a softer banquet business and timing of marketing support. Maggiano's delivery and to-go business, which makes up about 10% of total sales, continue to be a bright spot with comp sales up 350 basis points. Chili's comp restaurant sales declined 1.8%, reflecting a 4.1% decline in traffic partially offset by a 1.3% improvement in mix and a 1% increase in price. While Chili's comp traffic improved from Q3, it was still negative, in part reflecting overall industry performance. Chili's also continued to be impacted by energy-related markets, which represent about 17% of our system, but we saw the first signs of stabilization in these markets. Energy markets were down 4.5% during the quarter, an improvement of about 310 basis points compared to Q3. Chili's price increase of 1% included 1.4% of menu pricing partially offset by 40 basis points of higher expense primarily related to loyalty points redemption. This expense impact is a reduction from prior quarters and reflects our successful initiatives to improve the effectiveness and reduce the cost of our loyalty program. We are encouraged by the participation in our loyalty program as we look to transition to Plenti points in Q2. My Chili's Rewards ended the year with 5.5 million members and 20% member engagement as measured by the number of guest checks that have logged in with a reward account. Combining with Plenti, we'll allow Chili's to further reduce loyalty program costs and to leverage the power of both My Chili's Rewards and Plenti membership basis. Looking at mix, Chili's delivered a positive mix of 130 basis points in Q4 driven primarily by our Margarita Madness contest in April and May. The contest increased alcohol mix by 75 basis points to a high of 14.7% during the promotion. Now let's turn to Q4 margin performance. Overall restaurant operating margin decreased 20 basis points to 18.3%. Excluding the anticipated mix impact of the Pepper Dining acquisition, restaurant margin was up 20 basis points, primarily reflecting the impact of the 53rd week of sales that contributed positive 80 basis points to Q4 margin. Restaurant expense margin was favorable by 110 basis points, primarily reflecting the benefit of the 53rd week, a lower accrual for workers' compensation and general liability expenses due to favorable experience trends and lower advertising. Restaurant labor margin was unfavorable 90 basis points, primarily reflecting a wage rate increase of around 3% and the impact of sales deleverage. For the full year, wage inflation was 2.5%. Cost of sales margin was unfavorable by 10 basis points, reflecting 75 basis points of unfavorable mix partially offset by 40 basis points of favorable menu pricing and 25 basis points of favorable commodity pricing. Commodity pricing primarily benefited from lower burger meat and seafood costs, partially offset by higher steak costs. Now I'd like to provide a few comments about full year fiscal 2016. For the year, we posted earnings per share of $3.55, 15% above prior year and within our original guidance range, despite lower than expected comp sales. As we've noted before, the 53rd week and lower incentive compensation contributed to earnings growth in fiscal 2016 but will not carry into fiscal 2017. These items combined for $0.42 of benefit in 2016. We also delivered free cash flow of $282 million for the year. This performance is a testament to our strong business model and supported share repurchases of $285 million during the year, including $19 million in Q4. As Wyman mentioned, we announced our intent to increase leverage. We're targeting an increase of approximately half a turn of leverage representing around $250 million to $300 million of incremental debt which we believe positions Brinker to continue to execute our current capital allocation policy with strong flexibility and to return additional capital to shareholders in fiscal 2017. We have concurrently increased our share repurchase authorization by $150 million and have $450 million currently available. We believe it is critical to continue to implement our disciplined capital allocation policy, which, apart from moderately higher leverage, is unchanged. Our capital allocation policy includes several priorities. First, investing in the business to sustain and grow our brands. Second, targeting a dividend payout around 40% of earnings and growing our dividend as we grow earnings. And finally, returning any excess cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchase. We'll provide more details as we execute our anticipated initiative to increase leverage in the near future. Now I'd like to provide detailed guidance for fiscal 2017. This includes the three items we provided at our June 9 Investor Day. Namely, comp sales, EPS and capital expenditures, which are unchanged. Guidance also includes the anticipated impact of our planned refinancing, which could vary based on market conditions. We continue to forecast comp sales growth of 0.5% to 2%, including a price increase of 1.5% to 2%. We forecast company-owned restaurant capacity growth of approximately 0.5% on a 52-week basis. We expect Brinker reported revenue to be down 0.5% to up 1%, reflecting the 53rd week, or up 1% to 2.5% excluding the 53rd week. We expect adjusted EPS of $3.40 to $3.50. This represents a reduction of 1% to 4% from 2016, but normalizing 2016 for the 53rd week. In incentive compensation, our 2017 adjusted EPS range reflects growth of 9% to 12%. EPS guidance also includes the anticipated impact of refinancing, which is expected to be relatively neutral in fiscal 2017 but is anticipated to be accretive to EPS in 2018 and beyond. As we look at margins, our reported restaurant operating margin is projected to be down approximately 50 basis points. This reflects an approximately 25 basis-point impact from the 53rd week. Higher advertising investment, higher labor costs and planning incentive compensation at target, partially offset by lower cost of sales. Regarding cost of sales, we project moderate deflation, primarily led by lower costs for poultry and beef, partially offset by higher costs for produce. Currently, we are 81% contracted for commodities in Q1 with 61% contracted in Q2. We expect wage inflation of slightly below 3% in fiscal 2017, primarily reflecting wage increases for salary and hourly team members, with a third of this increase from higher minimum wages. We forecast capital expenditures of $110 to $120 million, reflecting investment in new restaurants, maintenance, new bar investments and technology initiatives. Looking more closely at technology, we're well on our way to building out our digital guest experience program, migrating to new technology platforms and transitioning our IT and systems management to a more partner-centric model. Execution of the strategy resulted in some discrete expenses in 2016, and we anticipate there will be other discrete expenses in fiscal 2017 that are not reflected in our guidance. We expect depreciation expense to increase $3 million to $5 million, reflecting past and ongoing investments in new restaurant technology and re-image. Our G&A is expected be $16 million to $18 million higher, primarily due to planning for incentive compensation at target, partially offset by the lack of the 53rd week. Interest expense is expected to increase $15 million to $22 million due to a higher average debt balance and higher anticipated average interest rate. Excluding the impact of special items, our income tax rate is expected to be 29% to 31%, and free cash flow is projected to be $230 million to $240 million. Finally, we project a weighted average share count for full year fiscal 2017 between $50 million and $53 million. That concludes our guidance for fiscal 2017. And with that, I'll open up the line for questions. Joe Taylor - Vice President-Investor Relations & Treasurer: Hey, Dave. We'll take questions now, please.