Mark Tecotzky
Analyst · Mikhail Goberman with JMP Securities
Thanks, Chris. I've been in the mortgage market for over 30 years, and I have never seen market illiquidity and dysfunction that characterize the second half of March and early April. That said, while every period of market disruption resulting volatility is unique, each crisis shares common features. For EARN, early recognition of what was happening, what was likely to come next and what the policy response could be, all allowed our team to substantially mitigate the extent of book value decline.The first step in understanding what happened to Agency MBS during March is to look at the markets during the first 2 months of the year, pre-COVID. Over January and February, we saw a 75 basis point rally in the 10-year note, and that rate rally unleashed huge prepayment fears into the market. Mortgage originations soared, spreads on TBAs widened and pay-ups on specified pools climbed to very high levels with many pay-ups exceeding 4 points. Then the uncertainty of COVID gripped the market. This was real uncertainty that caught the market by surprise, and this was the kind of frightening uncertainty that historical data and traditional models cannot quantify. Without facing the predictive power of models, the market quickly repriced to reflect fear and emotion and also repriced to perhaps the most important technical factor, the proliferation of too many market participants with an adequate liquidity and over-leveraged balance sheets.The next step played out as they haven't passed crises. The stock market cratered; investors redeemed furiously from mutual funds, including fixed income mutual funds; and repo lenders fretted about the safety and security of their loans. The balance sheet was in short supply. So any bond holdings that required balance sheet leverage had a target on their back as cash was king.To understand the behavior of repo lenders, you have to put yourself in their shoes. Their best case is that their borrower pays off its repo loan on time and at par, and they could make their modest spread. Their worst fear is that the value of their collateral could drop below their repo loan. So when repo lenders see prices drop, they first pull a lever that they can control, their margin call. And when they margin call an over-leveraged borrower, that borrower often has to sell immediately, and that borrower is often forced to sell whatever it can regardless of fundamental value. And to make matters worse in this case, the forced selling occurred not only when COVID panic was at its highest but also as quarter end was approaching. Banks typically reduced their risk going into quarter end as they had little balance sheet to spare, and so prices cratered, including pay-ups for specified pools.It was almost irrelevant that loan balance specified pools had longer durations than TBAs while rates were rallying. Those are model outputs. Repo lenders margin called their borrowers aggressively as they simultaneously had to deal with both the risk of their repo book and their own internal quarter end balance sheet pressures. In response to these margin calls and the subsequent forced selling, pay-ups for specified pools collapsed, which led to more margin calls on leverage agency pool portfolios and so on. With this vicious cycle set in motion, you can see how thoughtful and forceful the response from the Federal Reserve was.The Fed quickly ramped up QE, which we thought was likely, but they also tailored it to the current market. Not only was the Fed using QE as a transmission mechanism to lead to lower mortgage rates, but they were also using QE for private sector balance sheet relief. Day after day, the Fed bought tens of billions of dollars of MBS for next-day settlement, and they bought a range of coupons, not just the current coupon. Buying a range of coupons for short settlement quickly gave the market the balance sheet relief it was so desperate for. When April finally arrived, with balance sheets in better shape and a new quarter starting, the market could then focus more on relative value and with no longer priced by abject fear and desperate actions of the most over-levered investors.So what did EARN do and what does this mean for future returns? First, the fact that agency mortgage QE is firmly established as part of the Fed's crisis management toolkit makes Agency MBS unique among structured products. There is a limit to how much an agency portfolio will decline in value if you risk manage that portfolio well enough that you don't have to engage in forced selling to meet margin calls, which is the key. When spreads are tight, the incremental returns to be captured from that one extra turn of leverage are rarely worth it because it weakens your balance sheets in times of crisis. Another protective measure we take is that we generally structure most of our repo with a 3-month term with staggered maturities. And we don't try to save a few basis points by using too much overnight or 1 month repo.Another important point about our portfolio positioning going into March is that early in the year, we decided that pay-ups were getting more fully priced so we have generally not been adding high pay-up pools. So after the crisis hit and pay-ups collapsed, whenever we want to proactively lower our leverage, we had plenty of lower pay-up pools to sell, and it didn't cost us much to sell these pools versus TBA. In other words, we're able to proactively lower our leverage more easily and more cheaply than if we had allocated all our capital to very high pay-up pools. This is where our research effort really helped again. We concentrated our research over much of the last 6 months to analyze and understand what types of lower pay-up pools could still provide appreciable call protection but at a low cost.The other dynamic that this period of volatility affirmed on Agency MBS is that many losses from spread widening are reversible if you can avoid being a forced seller because you're not taking credit risk. In contrast, in many credit-sensitive sectors of the fixed income market, such as many sectors of the high-yield corporate bond market, the economic impact of COVID will absolutely create real fundamental credit losses that will not be reversible.Looking forward, we now see tremendous opportunity in the current market and are well positioned to take advantage. We anticipate that prepayment speeds will surprise in the low side for borrowers who qualified for mortgages as part of the credit box that had been expanding over the past few years up until the crisis in March. MBS spreads are still attractive, and we think we can continue to benefit from the Fed backstop and controller prepayment risk with modest pay-ups. In addition, with the distress in the credit risk transfer or CRT market, the GSEs are likely very concerned about their ability to utilize that market to off lay their credit risk going forward. Faced with the possibility of having to hold much more credit risk on their balance sheet, we think that GSEs will continue to shrink the credit box, which should keep speeds relatively low despite where mortgage rates are.We also like adding more TBA to the portfolio mix in the current market. In the past weeks, the Fed has reduced its daily purchases from a peak of about $35 billion to $40 billion a day, down to $6 billion a day. But if MBS were to widen materially from here, we think the Fed has the ability to ramp up purchases again aggressively.Another positive tailwind now is the availability of great funding. 3-month repo has declined sharply and should see settle in around -- should settle in below 40 basis points, which gives us a generous net interest margin between asset yields and financing costs. Since last summer, the Fed has been keenly focused on making sure that repo financing costs for treasuries and Agency MBS more closely track the Fed funds rate. So the MBS repo rates should absolutely be in the lower-for-longer regime.Our analytic models have been very useful for making conditional predictions. We have no crystal ball to tell when people who go back to work or how high unemployment will get. But we think we are able to predict certain smaller outcomes, such as prepayment speeds as a function of mortgage rates, what happens when the credit box shrinks and what happens when the Fed buys. Predicting answers to these questions have always been and will continue to be our primary focus to help inform our portfolio decisions. But at the same time, in light of what happened in March, we continue to monitor the big picture, and we are acutely aware of the uniqueness of the current environment.To recap, we see tremendous opportunity going forward. Agency MBS spreads are still wide. They have Fed support. Financing is plentiful and cheap, and rolls are very attractive, and we think prepayment protection can be found at relatively cheap levels if you know where to look.Now back to Larry.