Mark Tecotzky
Analyst · West Family Investments.
Hi Jim, it’s Mark. So I think what we’ve seen so far in 2015 is U.S. interest rates being much more impacted by events outside the U.S. than we saw earlier in the year. So that’s a risk we are not willing to take, right. So we’d do that by trying to hedge our interest rate exposure on an aggregated basis, but also different points on the curve. You might see us from time-to-time add volatility of the hedges. The other risk, I think, we have is that, it seems like there has been a little bit of a drifting apart between market yield levels, I mean despite [ph] some of the past week the market yield levels and dots that FED putout. So potentially in June, potentially later in the year, there will be some reconciliation there. So I think you can have a lot of interest rate volatility this year. And it’s not clear what directions things will go, a lot of people were talking about U.S. tenure is so cheaper [indiscernible]. But on the other hand, you look at U.S. interest rates and potentially over FED that might raise rates in June, to argue that rates should be high. So I think that’s a risk we’re not willing to take. The risks that we want to take that we think we’ll get paid to take, we’ve also seen big changes in prepayment expectations, right. And how the market values that and we see from time-to-time the market under valuing it, from time-to-time the market over valuing it, that we want to actively reposition the portfolio if those opportunities exist. The other thing, I think you can see, you can also see to this big uncertainty, some uncertainty around the FED said might - when the FED might stop reinventing, its on principal pay down, right. So just what they’ve said to date is that they plan on - their principle, paying down, at least through the first interest rate increase, but it’s not clear how long there after that will increase. How long after that they’ll keep reinvesting. So that can introduce a lot basis - the mortgage market and that is something that you can hedge a little bit by increasing your amount of TBA hedges. But that’s a risk that we’ll want to take some of, we think that that’s a risk that volatility to be mortgage basis will present us with opportunities this year.