Timothy Flanagan
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead
Yeah. No, thanks, Curt, for that. And I think there's about six questions or points in there. But I would try to make sure I hit them all. So, as it relates to the outages, certainly, these are our planned activities. We take down our European operations annually, and this coincides with a lot of holiday periods for our folks over in Europe and we do a lot of maintenance and repair work during that time. And then, also Seadrift, we do a biannual turnaround and major maintenance activities down at Seadrift. So, in our prepared remarks, I commented on the inventory build that we had that was done twofold. One, to make sure we had the graphite electrode inventory to ship to our customers throughout the third quarter and not have any disruption in supply certainly. But then also making sure that we have sufficient needle coke on-hand as we continue to produce in the back half of the third quarter, if you will. So, a lot of that is already in our results and in our cash flows, if you will. And then we'll continue to work that down through the back half of the year. On the cost side, yeah, certainly, inflationary forces have impacted us and will continue to impact us. I think we're looking at sequential cost increase of roughly 7% in line with where we were Q1 to Q2. And it's really driven on a couple of key areas. First of all, European power price, right? Overall, energy is a relatively small piece of our overall portfolio of costs and we're largely fixed in Europe. For energy, we're at probably 80% fixed on the power side, 65% fixed on the gas side. But if you look at the volatility of the gas market in Europe right now, the Dutch TTF has swung from €110 a megawatt hour to where it's sitting today at $200 a megawatt hour over the last four months. So, even with having as much that we have hedged, those wild swings are going to have an impact on our results. We mentioned raw materials. And certainly, if we think about pitch, which is, again, a key element in the manufacturing of an electrode. The conflict in Ukraine disrupted the European pitch market in the latter part of Q1 and into Q2. And while we've stabilized that supply chain and locked in the supply that we need, that pitch pricing and the associated logistics with it have certainly gone up. Decant oil that trades off of Brent and a spread over Brent, and those markets have continued to increase. So, despite our hedges, we're still seeing some cost inflation on the decant side. I guess, commenting that we can't hedge 100% of your need, and we can't hedge that spread over Brent to what decant is traded at. And then last point on cost, logistics, right? I think, logistics pricing remains elevated or continues to elevate for certain routes and in particular, that affects us is North America to Europe and vice versa, and reliability of logistics remains at an all-time low. So -- those are maybe a little bit of color on some of the cost headwinds that we're facing, but we continue to work to mitigate that the best we can. And I think your last comment or question was around third-party needle coke. And I think on the needle coke side, if we look at the import statistics that we often reference on these calls. And again, I'll just remind they are a month or so dated, and they are just a reference point. But you're trading at a range of $2,600 to $2,900 a ton, which is up, call it, $300 a ton on the high-end. So, we continue to see increases in needle coke through the first half of the year as anticipated and expected. We may be seeing a little bit of plateauing here in the near-term, but that's kind of what we're seeing from a needle coke perspective at this point in time.