Blake J. Jorgensen
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets
Thanks, Andrew. Turning to our Q3 results. EA's non-GAAP net revenue was $1.57 billion, which was below our guidance but 33% higher than last year. Our revenue growth over Q3 last year was driven by Battlefield 4, FIFA 14, Madden NFL 25 and NHL 14. And as a note, we deferred $36 million into Q4 from programs that allowed consumers to upgrade from current-generation titles to next-generation titles. Our Q3 revenue shortfall was driven by a much sharper decline than anticipated for demand -- in demand for next-generation or current-generation software, excuse me. The industry showed signs of current-gen software market weakness in the third quarter, and in December, the U.S. NPD results reflected that trend with PS3 and Xbox 360 software sales declining 35% versus the prior year. Our quarterly results were negatively impacted by this trend, and some of our key titles, such as Battlefield 4, FIFA 14 and Need for Speed Rivals came in below our expectation for current-gen revenues. This downward trend on current-gen software was partially offset by our positive next-gen results, and fortunately, this plays well for our future. Our Xbox One and PlayStation 4 software sales were well ahead of our expectations, led by FIFA 14, Need for Speed Rivals and Battlefield 4. Sales of each of these titles on next-gen platforms exceeded our forecast. Based on estimates, EA titles represented 35% of the Western World next-gen software market in the third quarter, and EA was the #1 publisher on PS4 and Xbox One in December. Q3 non-GAAP digital net revenue continues to grow over the prior year. Digital net revenue increased by 27% year-over-year to $517 million. Trailing 12-month digital net revenue was up 27% over the prior year to a record $1.86 billion. Breaking down our digital revenue into its key components highlights the performance of each business. First, extra content and PC free-to-play contributed $213 million, up 15% over the prior year, led by the continued growth in FIFA Ultimate Team, FIFA Online 3 and Star Wars: The Old Republic. Our year-to-date results for all of our Ultimate Team services; FIFA, Madden NFL and NHL Hockey, continued to demonstrate revenue growth year-over-year. Extra content growth was partially offset by our decision to sunset several of our social titles. Second, our mobile business generated $125 million for the quarter, up 26% over the prior year and 19% over the prior quarter. Smartphones and tablets continue to represent the majority of the revenue, accounting for $110 million of the $125 million total, and growing 39% year-over-year. Third, full game downloads added $113 million, up 157% over the prior year. This was largely driven by the launch of Battlefield 4 on PC in the quarter. And finally, subscriptions, advertising and other digital revenue totaled $66 million, down 16% over the same period last year. This was driven by a decline in POGO subscription and advertising revenue and a decline in Star Wars: The Old Republic subscription revenue as the fleet free-to-play offering continues to grow. Moving on to gross margins. Our non-GAAP gross margin for the quarter was 68.1%, up over last year's 65.7% and in-line with our guidance. The improvement was due to our product mix shift, as well as the growth in digital, lower transaction fees as we move away from the social business, and the benefits of our new digital platform. Operating expenses for the quarter were $540 million, up 11% from last year and $60 million lower than our guidance. Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue was 34%, compared to 45% in the prior year. Our improving operating expense leverage illustrates the success of our cost control programs, as we continue to drive our operating margins above 20%, while remaining focused on investing in future growth. The resulting non-GAAP EPS was $1.26 per share, which exceeded our guidance of $1.22 per share. Our EPS came in above our guidance due to our continued efforts to focus R&D investments on high-return opportunities and managing our marketing expenses through greater performance-based advertising strategies. Our cash and short-term investments at the end of the quarter were $2.07 billion or approximately $6.70 per share. Roughly 60% of this cash and short-term investment balance is held outside of the U.S. Net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter was $685 million compared to $363 million in the prior year. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating cash flow was 666 -- or $664 million. This is the highest trailing 12-month operating cash flow for EA since 2005. During the quarter, we did not repurchase any shares. Now turning to guidance. With respect to our Q4 guidance, GAAP revenue is expected to be $1.07 billion, and GAAP earnings per share is expected to be $0.72. Our non-GAAP revenue for the quarter is expected to be $800 million. This estimate factors in the steeper-than-anticipated declines we saw in current-gen software revenues. Also as a reminder, in Q4 last year, we launched 5 core titles and recognized the full year's Battlefield 3 Premium subscription revenue. This year, we will be launching 2 titles in the quarter and recording Battlefield 4 Premium subscription revenue on a ratable basis. Our non-GAAP gross margin is forecasted to be approximately 71%, down against the prior Q4 gross margin of 74%. Our forecast in Q4 includes $36 million of revenue deferred from Q3 for promotional upgrade programs. As a reminder, last year's higher gross margin was attributable to the recognition of all of the Battlefield 3 Premium subscription revenue in the fourth quarter. We expect our total non-GAAP operating expenses to be $525 million. Our operating expenses will be impacted by our planned marketing and advertising for our key titles on next-gen. This results in a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.09 per share. For the full year, non-GAAP revenue is now estimated to be $3.91 billion and gross margin is expected to be 66%. Due to the favorable results of our continued cost control efforts, we are now estimating operating expenses to be reduced to approximately $2.04 billion, and we are raising our EPS guidance by $0.05 to $1.30 per share. The GAAP guidance is estimated to be $3.52 billion in revenue and a loss per share of $0.42. As we have pointed out in past quarters, our consumers are playing our games online over longer periods of time, and this longer period affects the length of time over which we are required to recognize GAAP revenue, which will drive the deferral of an incremental $385 million of net revenue into fiscal '15. This longer service period has no impact on our non-GAAP revenue or cash flows. Regarding cash flow, we are raising our estimates for fiscal '14 operating cash flow to approximately $600 million. This implies expected free cash flow generation of approximately $500 million, which is up $200 million from our previous guidance and more than twice what we generated in fiscal '13. Regarding fiscal year '15, we will provide guidance during our Q4 earnings call, when we will be in a much better position to share our insights. At that time, we will give you our title slate for the year and our expected financial guidance, which will be a continuation of our multi-year plan of improving operating profits and cash flow. In summary, we were able to weather the decline in current-gen software sales by actively managing our operating expenses while still investing in the development of our next-gen products, services, future IP, earnings and cash flow. We are encouraged by our initial software sales from PS4 and Xbox One. And going forward, we remain committed to extending our leadership position in next-gen console software development, growing our digital games and services and continuing to improve our operating profits. With that, I'll turn the call back to Andrew.