Claudio Descalzi
Analyst · Bernstein. Mr. Clint please
Good afternoon, and welcome to our first half 2016 results presentation. In the first half of this year, we continued to execute our strategy and performed in line with our plan. In particular, in E&P, we were able to fully offset the shutdown of Val d’Agri and disruptions in Nigeria, even managing to increase production by 0.5% year on year, thanks to the flexibility coming from our exploration and the pipeline of new startups and ramp ups that will continue in the next could of years. Production growth contributed to an overall positive EBIT of almost EUR0.5 billion despite Brent being below $40 per barrel and the depressed gas price. Exploration has already beaten the full-year target with 550 million barrels of new resources discovered in the first half. In mid-downstream, we recorded about EUR400 million of EBIT, with all segments delivering positive results. In refining, we continued to restructuring program, confirming the breakeven guidance for 2016 of $4.5 per barrel. In chemical sector, delivered its third consecutive semester of strong results, thanks to the optimization of our operation and the positive market environment. In gas and power, we recorded positive results in the first half of the year. And we continued to progress in the turnaround plan that the target struck even from 2017. CapEx was reduced by 17% in the first half, confirming our target to reduce this by 20% for the full year, when we’ll benefit from the completion of some major projects in Angola, Kazakhstan, and Norway. Overall, in the first half of 2016, the Company generated an operating cash flow of EUR3.1 billion. For the full year, we are in line with the plan of the operating coverage of CapEx at $50 per barrel. In E&P, first half production was 1.734 million barrels per day, 0.5% higher than last year. This result was achieved notwithstanding the shutdown of Val d’Agri that weighed in for 33,000 barrels per day and additional disruption in Nigeria for 13,000 barrels per day. Our performance, partially supported by the PSA effect, has been mainly driven by our startups and ramp ups: in Angola, where Block 15/06 was already reached a plateau of 90,000 barrels per day; in Norway, where Goliat has successfully completed their impact to above 100,000 barrels per day; in Egypt, where in only 10 months after discovery we raised Nooros production to today’s level of more than 70,000 barrels per day. Looking forward, we expect as a result of restart of Val d’Agri field in the coming weeks, and we plan to add cash again back on stream in October. Thanks to our performing in the first half and further growth, we confirm the full year guidance of 1.76 million barrels a day. In exploration, we have already beaten the full year target. We were targeting to find 400 million barrels of resources at $2.3 per barrel. After six months, we have already discovered in excess of 500 million barrels at around $0.60 for a barrel. Main contribution comes from Zohr appraisal phase and the major gas and condensate discoveries in the Egyptian shallow waters, confirming our strategy of refocusing on near-field activities that provide fast-track production. The new Nidoco wells and the Baltimore Southwest well announced that their carbon potential, what we call the Great Nooros area, now estimated to hold about 3 Tcf of gas in place. The Nooros field discovered in July 2015 is already producing 70,000 barrels per day and is expected to reach 130,000 barrels per day by October. In the first half, we have also continued to appraise on Zohr with three wells, all with positive results, that confirm the world class potential of this supergiant. Zohr 2 has been tested, confirming that great potential -- production potential and reservoir characteristics. We are currently drilling the fifth well in the southern part of the structure. During the first half, we invested €4.9 billion, a reduction of 70% against the first half of 2015. This trend is in line with our guidance of reducing 2016 CapEx by 20%. The startups of Goliat and Kashagan along with the completion of most capital intensive activities of projects that we start up in 2017 will slow the spending pace in the coming months. This CapEx reduction is even more remarkable if we take into account that we will deliver a growth in excess of 5% in 2017, thanks to the pipeline of material startups. We are on track on eight major new projects that will expand our cash generation with an overall equity production of around 500,000 barrels per day in the next three years. This new production is almost entirely operated and characterized by high oil content. And now, a few comments on the economic result. The economic result was heavily impacted by the negative scenario in oil, accounting for a 31% fall in Brent and 37% in gas price in Italy and the refining margin that came down by 32% with an overall EBIT reduction of €2.8 billion versus the last year. In addition, one-offs related mainly to Val d’Agri shutdown and gas and power impacted by a further €500 million. All these negative elements have been partially compensated by performance improvement driven by a lower cost base as well as efficiency gains in the mid-downstream segment, which brought €1 billion of improvement, allowing us to reach a positive EBIT of €770 million. At net level, we recorded a negative result of around €250 million, penalized as already anticipated by the higher tax rate paid on positive result in PSAs. In terms of cash generation in the first half, we generated €3.1 billion of operating cash flow, in spite of the weak price environment and the Val d’Agri production shutdown, reaching a leverage of 0.26. We expect to improve cash generation in the second half, with Goliat now at plateau, the return of Val d’Agri, the restart -- the startup of Kashagan, the growing production in Egypt, and other supporting actions. Capital expenditures in the second half will benefit from the roll-off of recent large projects that have reached plateau and the further optimization in the supply chain. This factor allows us to reiterate our guidance to cover CapEx from operating cash flow at $50 per barrel. To sum up, based on the first half operating performance, we update our target as follows. In E&P in 2016, we confirm our production at 1.76 million barrels per day and raise our exploration target by 50% to 600 million barrels. We confirm the 20% CapEx reduction in 2016, while targeting a production growth of more than 5% in 2017. In gas and power, 2016 EBIT will be negative due to the lack of positive contribution from the GasTerra arbitration, but free cash flow will be largely positive. Structural breakeven from 2017 is confirmed. In R&M, we confirm the refining sectors breakeven $4.5 per barrel in 2016. And we target to be both EBIT and free cash flow positive. Finally, in chemicals, we expect the business to be both EBIT and free cash flow positive in 2016. Based on this, I will propose to my Board an interim dividend of €0.40 per share. Thank you for your attention. And now, with the CFO and the other management team, we are ready to answer your questions.