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Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 28, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Dynex Capital, Inc. Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instruction] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Alison Griffin, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Alison Griffin

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today. The press release associated with today's call was issued and filed with the SEC this morning. You may view the press release on the Company's Web-site at dynexcapital.com under Investor Center, as well as on the SEC's Web-site at sec.gov. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words believe, expect, forecast, anticipate, estimate, project, plan, and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements that are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, some of which cannot be predicted or quantified. The Company's actual results and timing of certain events could differ considerably from those projected and/or contemplated by those forward-looking statements as a result of unforeseen external factors or risks. For additional information on these factors or risks, please refer to the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the period ending December 31, 2014, as filed with the SEC. The document may be found on the Company's Web-site under Investor Center, as well as on the SEC Web-site. This call is being broadcast live over the Internet with a streaming slide presentation which can be found through a Webcast link under Investor Center on our Web-site. The slide presentation may also be referenced by clicking on the Dynex Capital's Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call link on the Presentations page. Again that's dynexcapital.com. I now have the pleasure to turn the call over to Byron Boston, CEO, President and Co-CIO.

Byron L. Boston

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you, Alison. In the third quarter of 2015, we continued to be a very disciplined allocator of capital. Over the past two years we have made a series of decisions that had a meaningful impact this quarter. To understand our results, we must first recap our strategy and thought process since January 2014. So far this year, the markets have been defined by uncertainty, volatility and complexity. This was no surprise to us. If you recall, at the beginning of 2014 we identified the current global financial environment as being extremely complex and not ideal for taking outsized risk positions. One year ago, our concern about spread risk increased and as a result we sold the majority of our lower rated credit bonds and redeployed the capital into higher credit quality assets. We booked gains from substantial spread tightening in these assets and increased the liquidity of the assets on our balance sheet. Our third quarter results of 2015 are reflective of these actions. We maintained our dividend by earning $0.24 per share, and although we were down 4% in book value, the results would have been materially worse had we not reduced our exposure to lower rated assets. Furthermore, we repurchased a meaningful amount of our own stock this quarter as we found the long-term returns from investing in our own balance sheet to be extremely attractive. On Slide 4 and Slide 5, we give you pictures to emphasize why an investor might want to join us in investing in Dynex Capital. First, the power of above average dividends will prove to be a large driver of returns over the next several years and will help cushion adverse movements in our book value. Second, if you look at Slide 5, you can see the long-term results for several mortgage REIT stocks. During this period, the Fed embarked on a near two-year tightening cycle and the global financial system nearly collapsed. At Dynex, we have built our long-term strategy on disciplined capital allocation and risk management. We have adjusted our balance sheet where necessary between cash, residential bonds, commercial bonds, government-backed bonds and non-government-backed bonds. Our results are reflective of a very rigorous and thoughtful deployment of our capital. I will now turn the call over to Steve and Smriti to delve further into the details of this quarter. Please listen closely. The global financial markets are extremely complex and we want you to understand the many variables that have impacted our Company in 2015.

Stephen J. Benedetti

Analyst

Thanks Byron. This is Steve. I'm on Slide 7 and 8 for those following the presentation. For the third quarter, we reported a comprehensive loss of $0.22 per common share, consisting of core net operating income of $0.24 per share, unrealized gains on MBS of $0.50 per share, offset by unrealized losses on related hedges of $0.90 per common share and realized losses on terminated hedges of $0.06 per common share. Core net operating income to common shareholders of $0.24 per share represents an increase of $0.03 from the prior quarter benefiting from prepayment compensation received on CMBS and CMBS IO of $0.03, and $0.01 per share each from a larger investment portfolio, lower G&A expenses and less shares outstanding from shares repurchases during the quarter. Offsetting these items was an increase in RMBS premium amortization of $0.03 per share due to higher CPRs during the quarter and an increase in subsequent projected prepayment speeds. For the same reasons, adjusted net interest income, a component of core net income, and adjusted net interest spread, both increased in the third quarter. On Slide 9, we provide a reconciliation of book value per common share. If you look at the chart on this page, broadly the decline in book value per common share is due to the underperformance of our investments versus their hedges as unrealized gains on MBS were $0.50 per share versus unrealized losses on hedges of $0.90. The difference of $0.40 per share can be explained by spread widening on our investments, primarily on Agency CMBS and all CMBS IO during the quarter and basis risk from swap spread tightening versus treasuries. Smriti will have more detail in her comments on spread performance and book value performance during the quarter. Our share repurchases also benefited book value by approximately…

Smriti L. Popenoe

Analyst

Thanks Steve. I'm going to discuss macroeconomic factors first and then drill down to our position and what our activity was over the quarter. In the first quarter of this year, we described the environment as complex and we told you about some of the factors on Page 13 that were in play. In fact, if you look at the charts on Page 14, this year just in the first three quarters we have seen every type of curve movement in the yield curve. In the first quarter, the long-end rallied with 10 year notes touching 1.63% in a movement known as the bull flattener, followed in the second quarter by a sell-off with the long-end now selling off more than the front-end, ten-years touched 2.4% in what's called a bear steepener, and finally in the third quarter we've had a mix of both a bull steepener where the front-end rallies first and a bull flattener where the back-end rallies. Ten-year notes are now back at 2%. We have seen interest rates this year at times buffeted by domestic factors and at times driven entirely by non-U.S. flows and factors. In the third quarter of this year, we also saw rate movements that were accompanied by a broad based widening of risk premium. Spreads widened across the board. Turning to Slide 15, where does that leave us? Global yields are still low. Central banks have continued easing. China most recently cut rates last week for the sixth time since last November to address their growth concerns. Europe and Japan are still aggressively easing. Spreads have re-priced led by the riskiest assets. Lower rated credits, credits exposed to slowing global growth, have all been re-priced, and the good news for us is that some of this repricing is creating some opportunity…

Byron L. Boston

Analyst

Thank you, Smriti. Let me make a couple of additional long term observations that I think are relevant when you are in the mortgage REIT universe. On Slide 23 where we say Homeowners and Renters, we're basically showing that there has been a meaningful increase in the adult age population for the past 10 years as the millennials have moved beyond the age of 18. As we look out into the future, we expect an increase in demand for shelter, whether through rental properties or homeownership. We view this trend as a large positive for Dynex since we have been lending money and investing in assets backed by residential and commercial multifamily properties since 1988. Furthermore, as the government continues to encourage private capital to take more risk in the housing finance system, we expect our shareholders to benefit as we – from the growing opportunity set to deploy our capital. We continue to believe the global financial system is complex but we have now been handed a more attractive opportunity set. The key to understanding our future results would be to understand that we are not going to deviate from our long-term investment focus, our disciplined approach to capital deployment, our intense focus on risk management, and most importantly the fact that we at Dynex like to invest in ourselves and hence we will always approach the market from an owner-operator perspective. So far this year we are happy to have maintained our dividend and we are extremely happy that we had reduced our exposure to the riskiest sectors of the marketplace in 2014. And just one additional point, a little off script but I want to make this point. If you look at Slide 24 and you look at Slide 25, and you'll note on Slide 25 historical…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Doug Harter of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Douglas Harter

Analyst

You guys talked about spreads being at a more appropriate or attractive level. I guess is that going to change any of the investments so you are willing to sort of move down the capital structure at all in those investments now that yields are wider?

Smriti L. Popenoe

Analyst

It's Smriti. So the answer is, we are looking at doing that, and I think at this point the difference between now and other times where spreads have widened in the past is really making sure that, A, the underlying credit fundamentals are good, and B, that there really is opportunity to earn not only just the carry or the spread versus whatever your hedges are but also try to understand to make sure that there is some spread upside from here in a lot of these sectors. So that's something we're looking at. Again, we view the risk return at this point as being more reasonable and over time I think we are going to get opportunities to decide whether or not those are actually attractive enough to put capital into, but at this point they have widened and we are looking at them.

Byron L. Boston

Analyst

And then let me add one other thing here, Doug. We have put this in context from a macro perspective. When we look at the lower credit assets, and just from a principle, when you have a model such as a mortgage REIT, you want to carry a lower credit asset on repo or some other type of shorter-term financing generally when that's really cheap and you're really comfortable with the risk reward. So we're slow to do that. What Smriti said, what she's really trying to point out to you is we're very disciplined in looking at it. So we've got our eye on it and we ask ourselves the question, is that really attractive enough. The BBBs or A rated, even AA rated asset, of 2015 are not as attractive and are not as well structured as those assets in 2009, 2010 and 2011 when we originally went into those assets. So it is something that when you see a spread movement like this, we raise our eyebrows and we take a closer look, but we really have to put this in context of a larger macro environment. We still don't have the opinion. In 2011, if you make the comparison, assets were cheap. Today they are just – relative value has adjusted.

Smriti L. Popenoe

Analyst

They are relatively less expensive.

Byron L. Boston

Analyst

Yes, exactly.

Douglas Harter

Analyst

So I guess can you talk about how you feel you're positioned from a leverage standpoint if we were to get a further widening and you would find the assets at attractive enough levels to want to kind of add to the investments, how do you feel – would you have the capacity to increase leverage?

Smriti L. Popenoe

Analyst

Yes. The way we think about that, Doug, is we stand ready to do both things, which is from a macro standpoint if we think the environment is really treacherous and it's really going to be one where we need more liquidity and capital to survive some kind of more draconian scenario, because we have liquid assets on the balance sheet we are going to have the flexibility to reduce leverage. However, we ended the quarter at 6.4x. We have a pretty decent liquidity and capital position coming into the quarter. If we find those opportunities and we're comfortable with that macro environment as one where we're not going to get tripped up, we have the flexibility to add assets and increase leverage. And don't forget, we can reallocate existing capital as well.

Byron L. Boston

Analyst

And I think that last point that Smriti made about reallocating existing capital, right now you do have the opportunity to sell what's rich and buy what's cheap. So one thing is great about when the duck chairs are shuffled, we want to put it in that or draw that type of an analogy, it gives you more opportunity to make relative value trades, which actually I think Smriti and the team has done an excellent job, such that you see our net spread actually improving. So as we look forward, we'll be looking for relative value opportunities and then we'll just consider as spreads move around the absolute value opportunities.

Douglas Harter

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Trevor Cranston of JMP Securities. Please go ahead.

Trevor Cranston

Analyst

I guess listening to the comments, it sounds like you guys find spreads to be relatively attractive today, but over the near-term at least it sounds like you're a little concerned about potentially more volatility or some additional spread widening. So can you comment maybe where we sit today, how you're kind of viewing the trade-off between having new assets where spreads are versus buying back additional shares?

Smriti L. Popenoe

Analyst

So I think it's really the same thought process as we're thinking about it. So, for us, we are looking at the probability that on existing capital where our capital is allocated and we are looking at the risk reward that we are going to earn from that capital. And to the extent that spreads are going to remain – go sideways or widen from here, we can take our time deciding on what the best relative risk reward is, right. And we want to incorporate into that thought process the potential for price appreciation or spread tightening as we're deciding whether to allocate capital into that versus buying back your own shares at this point is actually a relatively much less risky proposition. We know what's in our portfolio. We like what's in our portfolio. It's trading at a discount. And you can see that our capital allocation in the third quarter kind of reflected that. So going forward, we're still making those types of decisions, and yes, spreads are wider, and I apologize if I gave the impression that we thought they were attractive, they are definitely looking like they are more reasonably priced. At this point it's reasonably priced enough for us to take a second look and really try to assess whether these are spread levels at which we feel we can have confidence that we're actually going to get not only that carry return but also that price appreciation as we go through time. And sometimes that trade-off isn't always clear but that's the calculus as far as we're concerned.

Byron L. Boston

Analyst

I'm going to add, just want to reiterate one point here, Trevor. Main message today, this is business as usual. We're really disciplined about our capital deployment. We don't get a hunch and get excited about anything. That's why I pointed out the operating business model versus securities. We're real disciplined in how we make that decision, whether it involves that certain asset class or not. The difference here today, let's call 2015 versus 2012 or 2011, it's a daily issue. The global financial environment is extremely complex. It puts pressure on us to be really focused, and in our chair strapped in, analyzing [indiscernible] on a daily basis whether to make these decisions to sit on our hands, invest in our own capital stock versus investing in some other type of security, whether at the top of the stack or even reintroduce some lower rated assets into the balance sheet. So this is business as usual and we are going to approach this from a disciplined perspective, but given the overall complexity of the financial system, I wish I could predict to you exactly what we're going to do from day to day to day. I could have done that back three or four years ago, I can't do it right now, because we are subject to so many changes and surprises that we just want to be prepared to react in an appropriate manner.

Trevor Cranston

Analyst

Got it. That's helpful. And then on the Agency prepay speeds, can you guys just comment on what you've seen so far this quarter and kind of what the outlook is for the remainder of the year given the drop in rates we saw in 3Q?

Smriti L. Popenoe

Analyst

Right. So we have actually seen a decline month over month coming into this quarter, and again, because we own slightly different securities in TBAs and the MBS that are out there in the marketplace, we tend to have more of a seasonal factor coming to play for us. We also own a lot of securities with IO features in it that are relatively locked out from refinancing at this point. So as we are looking at it, there is a factor that cause us to think that speeds would be faster than we had originally thought and that's why we made some adjustments to our projections, but their seasonality that's going to basically offset some of that going into the end of this year. The winter months, we almost always experience slower speeds.

Byron L. Boston

Analyst

Trevor, I want to make a broader – point out something from a broader perspective regarding prepayments. So we talked about our strategy being diversified. One of the kind of hidden gems that you may not notice in the value of this strategy is, we may have had some over the last summer months some increase in terms of prepayments on our Agency residential book of business, but what may have been a negative on the residential side of the business, was a positive on the commercial side of the business. And so we've had offsetting factors which may or may not be noticed in the marketplace, I want to point it out to you, and that has led a muted the overall impact of faster prepayments piece once you consider the entire portfolio. So as I look at our concept of diversity and see how it's played out in 2015, again faster speeds negative on the resi side, faster speed is real positive on the commercial side as we are compensated because we have a prepayment protection in the commercial assets.

Trevor Cranston

Analyst

Yes, I did notice that in the press release, but thanks for pointing that out. Okay, thanks everybody.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from David Walrod of Ladenburg. Please go ahead.

David Walrod

Analyst

Most of my stuff has been touched on, but just wanted to talk about the funding diversification and how much of your total funding you think you can place both with the FHLB and through the Direct Repo line?

Smriti L. Popenoe

Analyst

We have a limit both imposed by our Board and also just our internal risk management limit in terms of the amount of financing, and it's also limited by the amount of capital that's in our insurance sub. So I think at this point, we're close to the maximum of what we're going to borrow from the FHLB, and I think I had mentioned in my comments that it was double the 255 or thereabouts that we had at the end of the quarter. In terms of Direct Repo, this is something I think that is going to get more and more acceptance in the marketplace. We've been able to repeat trades with our counter-parties and we've actually been to a number of conferences where there are money managers, other buy side accounts, that are starting to really respect it as a genuine potential option. So I think it's probably something that will really develop in 2016 and it's not a material amount of our portfolio right now, but it helps. The financing levels are substantially lower than where you can finance repo on the margin. So every little bit helps. It's a little bit like picking pennies up off the ground, but at this point we think that we've invested in putting this process together and we are actually benefiting from being one of the first folks out there to get it done.

David Walrod

Analyst

And at this point do you have one relationship and you're looking to expand those or do you have multiple Direct Repo relationships?

Smriti L. Popenoe

Analyst

We have more than one and we expect to continue to expand those.

David Walrod

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

There are no additional questions at this time. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the conference back over to Byron Boston for closing remarks.

Byron L. Boston

Analyst

Simply put this morning, I think we've kind of tried to give you as much information as possible for you to understand our overall third quarter results. We want to thank you for joining us during our conference call and we look forward to seeing you on our next conference call at the beginning of next year. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.