Smriti L. Popenoe
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead
Thanks Steve. I'm going to discuss macroeconomic factors first and then drill down to our position and what our activity was over the quarter. In the first quarter of this year, we described the environment as complex and we told you about some of the factors on Page 13 that were in play. In fact, if you look at the charts on Page 14, this year just in the first three quarters we have seen every type of curve movement in the yield curve. In the first quarter, the long-end rallied with 10 year notes touching 1.63% in a movement known as the bull flattener, followed in the second quarter by a sell-off with the long-end now selling off more than the front-end, ten-years touched 2.4% in what's called a bear steepener, and finally in the third quarter we've had a mix of both a bull steepener where the front-end rallies first and a bull flattener where the back-end rallies. Ten-year notes are now back at 2%. We have seen interest rates this year at times buffeted by domestic factors and at times driven entirely by non-U.S. flows and factors. In the third quarter of this year, we also saw rate movements that were accompanied by a broad based widening of risk premium. Spreads widened across the board. Turning to Slide 15, where does that leave us? Global yields are still low. Central banks have continued easing. China most recently cut rates last week for the sixth time since last November to address their growth concerns. Europe and Japan are still aggressively easing. Spreads have re-priced led by the riskiest assets. Lower rated credits, credits exposed to slowing global growth, have all been re-priced, and the good news for us is that some of this repricing is creating some opportunity because fundamentally strong sectors have also suffered widening. Cash is still on the sidelines awaiting clarity from the Fed, and I'll talk more about this later. We still think surprises are likely and at this point we think we could see them in either direction, upside surprises or downside surprises. The market psychology is currently skewing to downside surprises. We'll learn later today what the Fed thinks of the data. Our view is that based on the data and our read of the global economic picture, particularly the inflation picture, the initial hike will now be delayed into next year, but we can't forget the psychology if the Fed remains biased towards raising rates and to a large extent what we see now is that the markets have bought into the measured slow approach and that's what's priced in. We have viewed this environment and continue to view this environment as being favorable to our business model. The yield curve is steep, asset prices particularly credit sensitive assets are now reflecting more reasonable risk premiums, financing costs are not expected to rise as dramatically as once predicted by the market, and our ability to generate an above average dividend yield with net interest income remains largely intact. Let's now turn to see how we've managed capital. Please turn to Slide 16. As mentioned during last quarter's call and as Byron mentioned in his comments at the beginning of this call, we exited our riskiest credit positions in the third quarter of 2014 and reduced our leverage coming into the first quarter of this year. We did this by selling assets, Freddie K Bs in particular, which is the fifth line down on this page, at spreads in the 130s in the third quarter of last year. We took profits on this position that we purchased when spreads were in the 500. This allowed us to enter this year with a significant buffer of liquidity and capital which we have maintained throughout the year. As spreads began widening early in the first quarter and late in the second quarter of this year, we subsequently increased leverage by investing in high-quality assets, Agency guaranteed multi-family securities, which have reasonable liquidity. We also invested in short duration credit sensitive assets, nonperforming loan securitizations that return capital rapidly for ease of redeployment. All this time, we have allowed our investments in Agency hybrid ARMS which have been a solid performer, as you can see on the top line. Those investments have run off and that's been the capital that we've used to redeploy into these other sectors. We increased our balances this year in high-quality assets because it was a way for us to maintain our invested balances and earn an appropriate return while preserving the flexibility to reallocate capital as we saw opportunities. Turning to Page 17, as the market suffered disruptions in August and September, we used our excess capital and liquidity to buy back shares. Through the end of last week we have repurchased 5.8 million shares for a total of $40.4 million under the currently authorized plan for $50 million. At an average discount to book of 15%, we believe this represents significant value and accretion potential to shareholders. We also believe that over time we should see improvements to book value from existing positions as our assets season and roll down the spread curve. During this quarter we also made investments as spreads widened in non-Agency and Agency CMBS IOs but the bulk of our capital allocation went to share repurchases. In terms of financing activity, I'd like to mention two items. As of the quarter end, we had about 255 million in advances at the Federal Home Loan Bank which has now grown to about twice that amount in the fourth quarter. We also continued to execute on our Direct Repo transactions and we're increasingly optimistic on that type of transaction as a market alternative to traditional tri-party repo that's financed through dealer balance sheets. You can see on the tables that we brought down our original days to maturity in the financing book. That's a reflection of our Fed view. We have actually captured significant net interest margin in 2015 as a result of this as well as our forward starting hedges and our willingness to shorten our repo maturities. We continue to see liability management as a value enhancing opportunity for our shareholders. Going forward, here is what you can expect from us. We ended the quarter at 6.4x leverage, $3.7 billion in asset balance. We have a good cushion of liquidity and capital entering the fourth quarter. We're seeing opportunities to add assets at attractive levels in the CMBS sector, both in Agency and non-Agency, and we're selectively adding assets in sectors where we believe there is greater risk adjusted return potential than where capital is currently deployed. We're not in a hurry. We think there will be time and pockets of illiquidity for us to step in and take advantage. We are doing the work to make sure that we find the best opportunities going forward and as always we have the option to buy back shares should the opportunity continue to present itself. I'd like to now turn to our risk position and an explanation of what happened to our book value for the quarter. Our book value was impacted by three factors, rates, spreads and swap spreads. This quarter, as we saw on the rates graph on Page 14, we experienced a bull-flattening of the yield curve. Keep in mind that we own very few negatively convex assets whose duration shortens when rates rally, so we did not experience a material shortening of our asset position. We actually adjusted our hedge position this quarter to get longer duration in August and those adjustments helped us weather the impacts of spread widening on our portfolio. The majority of our book value decline this quarter is attributable to spread widening on the asset side. If you go to Page 19, you can see that spreads have widened across the board, across all asset classes, both Agencies and non-Agencies. Our portfolio actually suffered a more muted impact than what is shown here for two reasons. The first is that we tend to own higher quality assets than what's shown on this page, and second, our asset portfolio is spread across a number of vintages. Seasoned bonds actually widened less than new issue securities. During the quarter, our hedges were also impacted by significant swap spread tightening on the long end of the yield curve. This was the result of what we believe to be a technical factor related to corporate issuance. Corporate issuers in the third quarter as well as those who had issued in prior quarters swapped out their fixed rate debt by receiving fixed rate cash flows in the swap market and paying floating rate cash flows in the swap market, as it became increasingly clear that the Fed would not raise rates in September. At this point, we understand this to be a temporary pressure on swap spreads but we're monitoring our hedge position to assess whether any further adjustments need to be made. So what does this mean for our risk position going forward? If you look at the chart on Page 17, and I'm sorry to flip back and forth, I guess it's Page 18 on the deck, I'm sorry, you'll see our duration exposure has come down slightly as has our spread position, but our biggest exposure continues to be the spreads. As currently constructed, our book value is more sensitive to spreads. We have seen a substantial widening across the board in spread assets and for the near-term we may continue to see pressure on spreads going into year-end. However, we see a few factors that are supportive for spread tightening over the next few quarters. First, reduction in uncertainty around the Fed's actions will be supportive. Currently many types of investors are on the sidelines awaiting some kind of clarity. This is a positive technical waiting in the wings. Second, central banks outside the United States are still easing. The U.S. dollar remains a strong reserve currency and the presence of negative rates in many countries should drive demand for high quality U.S. dollar denominated assets. Finally, even in the absence of any movement in spreads or yields, as our positions age, we benefit. So all else being equal, in 12 months, [indiscernible] can expect to tighten somewhere between 3 and 5 basis points and on CMBS IOs the tightening can be as much as 20 to 30 basis points. On the hedge side, we have incurred the cost of maintaining hedge positions in 2016 throughout this year. It has kept our book value from rising much, but if yields evolve as currently priced into the forward curve, which is now pricing in only two hikes in 2016, we should not see a further decline in book value from these hedges. In fact, as they come online and become current pay hedges, we should see a corresponding offset in book value. On the other hand, if yields evolve where rates are higher than what's currently priced in, we should see a book value benefit as the mark-to-market on these hedges goes up. As always, we always have the option to terminate these hedges to see – if we see fit earning back the cost in 2016 if we feel the environment will support that. These factors will be relevant as we think about earnings into 2016. Two things to keep in mind. One is that we have repurchased shares and that's going to impact EPS estimates. Secondly, any forecast from this point obviously assumes a static position and we haven't been static in terms of managing our hedge book. We expect to continue to manage that position very dynamically, and you can expect that that will have an impact on earnings and book value sensitivity going forward. And last but not least, we expect to manage our financing portfolio pretty actively and we think we can add value there by expanding what we fund with alternative financing sources such as the Home Loan Bank and Direct Repo. On Page 20, I would like to leave you with the following thoughts. As we have said before, we view this environment as being favorable to our business model. The yield curve remains steep, asset prices are now reflecting more reasonable risk premiums, financing costs are not expected to rise as dramatically as once predicted by the market, and our ability to generate an above average dividend yield and net interest income remains largely intact. We have a good cushion of liquidity and capital entering the fourth quarter. Our capital allocation decisions thus far have maintained the diversified nature of our balance sheet. We have reduced our exposure to the more volatile spread sectors and we have also insulated the portfolio from prepayment risk and negative convexity by investing in locked-out positively convex Agency multi-family securities. We are seeing opportunities to add assets at attractive levels. We're going to continue to selectively add assets where we believe that the forward risk reward is better than where the capital is currently invested. And while we have maintained our hedge position to reflect what we think are divergent outcomes in a complex environment, we expect to continue to manage our position fairly dynamically as this economic environment evolves. I'll now turn the call over to Byron.