Smriti Popenoe
Analyst · Ladenburg. Please go ahead
Thanks, Steve. I will cover slides 10 to 16 for those following along in the presentation. I am going to speak briefly about 2014 and then move on to 2015. As Byron mentioned, 2014 was about understanding the macroeconomic environment and positioning for it. We took several actions last year that drove our performance. First, we maintained a long duration position as the yield curve flattened, protected our book value using forward-starting swaps and Eurodollar futures. We also actively managed our funding portfolio to fully optimize the use of our financing facilities and take advantage of attractive repo financing when it was available. As Steve mentioned, these two actions resulted in an increase in net interest spread and kept core net operating income fairly steady for the year. We methodically reduced the balance sheet and increased our capital on liquidity positions, as risk adjusted returns trended lower towards the year. We also took profits on a highly successful investment in agency credit CMBS. We reduced our exposure to the riskiest part of the credit sensitive spectrum in CMBS as risk adjusted returns were declining and monetized over $20 million in gains. In addition, we selectively added assets to the balance sheet, maintaining our risk adjusted return discipline by focusing on well structured high credit quality CMBS IOs. As such, we believe we’re entering 2015 in a very good position. Our portfolio continues to be designed to perform in a variety of market environments. We have liquidity and capital reserves that can help us withstand any temporary spike and volatility and still be positioned to add assets at attractive levels. Let’s now discuss the macroeconomic and policy factors we believe will impact Dynex, the resulting investment environment, and implications for our strategy. I’m now on Slide 11. We believe the environment in 2015 will be similar to that in 2014 and that the probability for surprises remain high, but the key macroeconomic seem in 2015 is that in an already complex environment, you now have divergence. The Federal Reserve and Bank of England are considering raising interest rates while in many parts of the world Central Banks are aggressively easing. The U.S. economy has been growing, which is divergent from the growth trajectory in Japan, China, and Europe and in many emerging markets. U.S. growth could still be derailed by domestic or global factors. Inflation has been tested. It’s expected to remain still in the phase of lower oil prices and the full impact of lower oil prices are yet to be seen. It is really difficult for us to see a catalyst for a major sustained higher move in inflation in the United States. And in spite of the hawkish mood at the FED, the data they make – that they are waiting on, the data dependency that they have, it may still prove unsatisfying, leaving the timing and pace of FED actions are still highly uncertain. So what does this mean for the investment environment in which Dynex operates? If you turn to Page 12, what you’ll see is first of global yields are low, in some cases they’re negative. Demographic factors globally are driving the demand for fixed income assets, this is keeping yields low. This doesn’t mean rates can’t rise and in fact this manned upping the surprise in 2015, but for now we're in a very low rate environment due to macroeconomic factors and central bank actions. Second, risk premiums are low and as a result returns are lower. We said this last year; the amount of cash in the system is driving the demand for risky assets. It’s great for our current position, but not great for making new investments and deploying new capital. Third surprises are likely. Keep in mind that there is no playbook for exiting QE, managing a fragile economy with divergent central bank actions as well as economic trajectory. It’s a complex environment. And to us what this means is that surprises are more likely creating volatility and perhaps opportunity. And finally, we could see the FED in motion this year, but the data would really have to line up just so. We discussed some of the risks of the data lining up in the previous slides, but we can’t rule out the FED increasing interest rates this year. So in that sense we’re operating in an environment of currently low yields, relatively low risk premiums with the potential for surprises and potentially a FED in action later this year. Let’s now turn to see how Dynex is positioned to enter this environment, on Page 13. First, we believe we have a stronger liquidity and capital position than in prior periods. This gives us the ability to better handle asset reprising being able to perform if we get margin costs, not being a fore seller of assets and to play offense by investing during market turbulence. This also gives us the flexibility to invest opportunistically in diversifying opportunities if the market turbulence does not arise. Second, as we said repeatedly, our current portfolio is constructed to perform in a variety of market environments. Let’s start with our interest rate risk position. We believe it’s manageable. We continue to maintain our long duration position. Our exposure to interest rates rising is estimated to be about 4% of book value for a pair of 100 basis point shift up in rates. This is modest relative to many of our peers. For bear steepener, where the two year raises 25 basis points and the ten year 75 basis points, our book value decline is estimated to be about 0.25%. Second, we’ve diversified across sectors to ensure that we can perform in a variety of market environments. Our allocation to short duration hybrids, cushions us in rapidly rising interest rate environments. In fact, over a quarter of our 2.2 billion in hybrid ARMs are currently floating rate assets are expected to be floating within 12 months. These assets have limited prepayment risk and were selected for features such as lower loan balances, date specific pools and pools with IO payments that protect us from faster speeds. In CMBS, we continue to believe that fundamentals are strong in the multifamily sector and the U.S. economy as a whole be very supportive for CMBS. We’re invested in agency DUS, whose spreads are much less volatile than non-agency AAA CMBS and offer us protection during periods of credit stress to the agency guaranty. Our agency and non-agency CMBS IOs are well structured cash flows with limited prepayment risk and spreads on these assets are more correlated with the AAA part of the CMBS spectrum as opposed to more credit sensitive tranches although these bonds are subject to idiosyncratic credit risk. And finally, our current portfolio is protected from rising interest rates on the short-end through a combination of Eurodollars futures and forward-starting swaps. We currently estimate that 80% of our repo book for non-floating rate assets are covered by forward-starting swaps or Eurodollar contract effective by the end of the fourth quarter of this year or in early 2016. This leaves us with what we considered to be a well diversified portfolio capable of navigating a complex macroeconomic environment. Let me now turn to our strategy going forward on Page 14. In 2014, we stated that this wasn’t the environment in which to make big bets and we managed our position accordingly. In 2015, we still believe it’s not the environment to big bets, but that the increased volatility the FED exit from MBS markets and global uncertainty will create opportunities. Even if volatility is muted, we expect to continue to expand the universe of assets that we evaluate and invest in to be able to deploy capital and diversifying opportunities. At this point, we expect that the balance sheet will increase modestly over the year as we selectively deploy capital. Let me tell you where we’re currently seeing some opportunities. In both CMBS and RMBS, we like the combination of agency DUS and agency and non-agency CMBS IOs, the combined spread and earnings profile of these two instruments is very attractive to us. We think there is value in the single-family rental space particularly in high credit quality floaters. We see selective opportunity in non-performing loan and re-performing loan securitizations. These are short duration amortizing cash flows that preserve our reinvestment flexibility. We expect to deploy capital and to some agency hybrid ARMs as we get prepayments from that sector. GSE risk transfer securities continue to be an area of focus for us. The key issue here remains financing stability, entry point, part of the capital stack with the best risk return and relative value compared to assets with similar risk. We think there will be opportunities for us to invest in this sector. Fixed rate MBS could start to get interesting later this year particularly if the FED stops reinvesting runoff and at that point there maybe an opportunity to put capital to work there. Our focus is going to be on diversifying and opportunistic investing. You can also expect us to continue to actively manage our financing position and create value in this process. And finally, we have given you an insight into our risk profile. You can expect us to continue to manage this position with a focus on protecting book value to a variety of interest rate scenarios, but also maintaining the flexibility to what – through what promises to be a dynamic market environment. With that, I’ll turn it over to Byron.