Kent J. Thiry
Analyst · Piper Jaffray
Thanks, Jim, and welcome to everyone. This quarter, we performed consistent with our overall enterprise guidance for 2013, in fact, near the high end of the range that consisted of continued solid performance in our kidney care business and HealthCare Partners performing at the lower end of the guidance range. On a separate subject, we continue to generate strong aggregate cash flows. While this quarter was unusually strong and therefore should not be extrapolated from, our trailing 12-month operating cash flow is representable and is $1.6 billion, or has been $1.6 billion. I'll discuss 5 topics: Clinical performance, HealthCare Partners' performance, public policy update, an update on our legal issues and then the outlook. Now first, as always, our clinical outcomes, because we are first and foremost a caregiving company, we now serve in kidney care approximately 161,000 dialysis patients in the U.S. alone, about 1 out of every 3 in America. With respect to adequacy, 98% of our hemodialysis patients had a Kt/V that would be greater than 1.2. With respect to vascular access, 72% of our patients have fistulas. And our 2012 patient gross mortality rate was down to 13.9%, a drop of 9% over the prior year, and you can do the math and see how many human beings that kind of drop affects. And in fact, our gross mortality rate has now dropped 27% or so over the last 12 years, both a big number cumulatively but particularly impressive number recently. Our patient outcomes continue to compare very favorably across the board to national averages, which also means we're setting [ph] money for payers and taxpayers. With respect to clinical metrics for HealthCare Partners. Medicare Advantage plans are benchmarked against the HEDIS measures, as many of you know. Last quarter, we talked a little bit about our 2012 performance in California at HCP. This quarter, we'll compare our results in Florida to that same national data for Medicare HMO patients. And our MA patients in Florida, once again, scored near the top across a wide variety of metrics, I'll just cite a couple. We were above the 75th percentile with respect to screening for colorectal cancer and diabetic LDL numbers. In the first case, 72% of patients being screened, and the second, 61%. And then we're above the 90th percentile with respect to female patients being screened for breast cancer with 85%. So these and other clinical outcomes at HealthCare Partners continue to compare very favorably to national averages. And once again, not only result in better clinical outcomes, but also higher patient satisfaction, higher physician satisfaction and savings. Also HealthCare Partners in California was named the top performing medical group for the 10th consecutive year by a reputable Integrated Healthcare Association. Next, I'll turn to HealthCare Partners operating performance. It did improve $17 million sequentially, as you, no doubt, have already noted. It's due primarily to an annual Q3 premium reconciliation for our MA members, secondarily, from increased patient volume from acquisitions and same market growth. As our Medicare capitated member months were up 5% over the prior quarter. One specific aspect of this growth was our acquisition of Arizona Integrated Physicians, a leading IPA network in Arizona with over 700 physicians that currently provide integrated care to approximately 20,000 MA patients in Arizona. And as many of you will recall, this is our second step following our partnership with SCAN, a plan, where we began providing integrated care to 13,000 MA patients earlier in the year. And in this market, we look forward to working collaboratively with local hospitals to do good work for those patients and payers. Next onto public policy. The government has announced that they are reopening the ESCO application process, that's the kidney care integrated care pilot process. And so we want to offer our heartfelt applause to CMS and CMMI for doing that, and we are eager, eager, eager to work with them to find a way to make that program work. As many of you know, we have demonstrated how this model can work. And in fact, our Special Needs Plan in California received a 92% patient satisfaction rating, which was the highest among all Special Needs Plans in California. So it's not only working clinically, it's not only working economically, but it's generating an unusual and distinctive patient satisfaction score. In kidney care, we do expect the final 2014 Medicare reimbursement rates to come out later this month. I want to remind you that if there are significant cuts, we will be forced to close a number of centers. We will do this in a responsible way, of course, to ensure continuity of care for our patients. But these changes could impact our treatment growth numbers year-over-year in the way that you would expect. In addition to the Medicare cuts that may happen, we also have potential hits due to increased commercial rate pressure and the potential impact of the exchanges, and so we will be looking to do some expense pruning wherever we can, although we cannot put a number on that at this time. Next, an update on our investigations and lawsuits. Based on our continuing settlement discussions with the government, we have increased the legal contingency reserve for the physician relationship investigations by $97 million. This, of course, reflects our current assessment. To be clear, we're seeking resolution of these related matters and we may or may not be able to reach a settlement. And it just won't be appropriate to provide any further details on this as these discussions are ongoing, highly confidential and we've not yet reached resolution. Next our outlook. Looking beyond 2013, staring at 2014, we look forward to discussing this with you in much greater analytical and strategic detail at our Capital Markets Day in New York City on Monday, December 9. But let's cover a few things now in order to try to be helpful to you. 2014 will be a challenging year. HealthCare Partners operating income will be down significantly. Kidney care operating income is almost certain to be down, perhaps, significantly. In our HealthCare Partners business, we face large MA rate cuts, as you know. And in general, payers are not doing a lot of adjusting down of benefit design, therefore, making it more difficult to offset the cuts. The silver lining in that particular fact is that this should lead to stable MA volume growth. From kidney care, it's worth talking in more depth about the pressures we face on 4 fronts. Number one, potentially large Medicare rate cuts, as you know. Number two, commercial rate pressure. We have been told by a large payer that they have convinced a large provider to trade price reductions for volume and aggressively so. This is something our investors and prospective investors need to know and be concerned about. It is unclear if these recent actions will provoke a period of pervasively lower reimbursement. But given the economic reality of our community, this is concerning. We operate in a low fixed cost and high variable cost business, where the higher commercial rates from the 10% of our patients who are commercial are essential to subsidize the losses from the 90% of our patients that are Medicare, and so it's a very dangerous trade-off to make. Item #3, exchanges and the policy surrounding exchanges. Well, on that, we've said for the last 2 years that there's more downside than upside. And this appears to be even more so the case now than it did several months ago. And then fourth and finally, in addition to those 3 items of clear earnings headwinds that were just described, it's worthwhile for all of us just to step back and look at some of the tectonic plate shifting going on in American health care that will affect kidney care. The exchanges, the physician acquisition, binge or surge by hospitals, the emergence of ACO risk seeking organization, all of that and other factors probably not worth enumerating in detail create a formidable and historically unusual amount of uncertainty. The good news is that these dynamics will likely create some attractive opportunities. The bad news is they will also create some negative impacts which could be quite material and could happen before the opportunities manifest it -- themselves in any kind of new earnings trajectory. In addition to just dealing with the new dynamics, we'll consume substantial time and capital. So in summary, for kidney care, we are entering into a distinctively challenging period ahead. Stepping back in a final comment regarding the overall enterprise, we have strong assets, we have strong capabilities in many areas that are relevant for health care and where it is going or where it needs to go and we have strong cash flows. And as an enterprise, we look forward to pursuing the opportunities. We also have a lot of respect for the challenges that we face. I'll now turn the call over to Jim Hilger, our interim CFO.