Anastasios C. Margaronis
Analyst · Jefferies
Thank you, Ioannis. One can certainly not criticize the dry bulk market for not providing sufficient excitement over the last year or so to investors, shipping analysts, shipping bankers and all involved in this sector of shipping. Apart from the booming container sector, the dry bulk sector must certainly take second place as regard the recent, at least, volatility among various sectors of shipping. We would, therefore, like to start this last section of our presentation with 2 slides depicting the dry bulk indices versus the 12-month time charter rates of large bulkers.
So in Slides 17 and 18, they help us reconfirm the much greater volatility affecting the spot market compared to the volatility we have witnessed over the last few quarters in the 12-month time charter rates for large bulkers. For example, the Capesize 12-month time charter rate moved from about $36,000 a day in the early part of last October to $24,000 a day in January of this year. In comparison, the spot Baltic Cape Index went from a high of 10,485 equivalent to about $87,000 per day 5TC average in October last year to a low of 702 in January of this year, the equivalent of $5,826 per day on the 5TC average.
As Clarksons point out, Capesize spot earnings averaged a mere $8,000 per day during January and the first half of February this year. It has always been known that spot trading large bulk carriers was not for the fainthearted, but we feel it is interesting to see this extreme volatility expressed in concrete numbers. These oscillations and violent fluctuations at Diana's chartering strategy, which has been described several times in the past, seeks to smooth out over time.
On the next Slide, 19, we look at the main demand driver for the bulk shipping industry, which is global GDP growth. Unfortunately, the IMF has been downsizing GDP growth estimates over the last few months. For example, world GDP is expected to increase 4.4% this year, down from the previous forecast of 5%. The forecast is still a 3.8% growth for 2023. For China, the GDP growth forecast has come down to 4.8% from 5.6% for 2022 and stands at 5.2% for 2023. In the United States, it's -- the economy is expected to grow by 4% this year, down from 5.2% estimate and 2.6% in 2023. As for the Euro area, GDP growth is expected to come in at 3.9% this year and 2.5% for 2023.
According to Braemar, the IMF has cited several key reasons behind their latest downward revisions. Firstly, the new COVID-19 variant, Omicron, with introduction of mobility restrictions and consequent lower economic activity. This has coincided with a period of high energy prices and continued supply chain disruptions, resulting in higher inflation than previously expected. Lastly, the depressed Chinese real estate sector and slower recovery of private consumption have capped growth prospects.
All these are bound to affect slightly the demand increase forecast for the transportation of dry bulk commodities. More importantly, however, as Braemar points out, the war in the Ukraine may have a broad-based negative impact on the dry bulk market with ports in the Black Sea, halting operations for an undetermined period of time. We have already started to see some initial negative effects on trade in that area.
Turning to steel production. According to Maersk Broker, global production of steel reached 1.95 billion tonnes in 2021, which was up 4% from the prior year. Chinese steel production dropped 3% last year, while according to Banchero Costa, steel production outside China increased by 14% year-on-year in 2021. According to Clarksons, given the existing restrictions in China on crude steel output, Chinese iron ore imports are expected to remain under pressure this year.
Turning to iron ore on Slide 19. On a worldwide basis, iron ore imports are projected to increase by 1% this year and remained steady during 2023. According to Clarksons, Chinese seaborne iron ore imports are currently projected to decline by a further 1% in 2022 after dropping by 3% in 2021. As regards to coking coal, global coking coal trade is initially projected to grow by around 4% in the full year 2022 as steel demand and production looks set to continue to grow steadily in key regions around the globe. Growth of about 3% is projected for 2023. For steam coal, worldwide demand is currently projected by Clarksons to grow by 1% this year with lower economic growth and rising domestic production in China, where government policy seems to provide limited support for imports of this commodity. Chinese seaborne thermal coal imports are initially projected to decline by 13% this year. Even though, as Clarksons pointed out, this outcome is by no means certain.
According to Commodore Research, a positive for coal imports in China is that hydropower electricity production has continued to fall on a year-on-year basis. However, electricity production from other renewable sources, such as wind power production, solar and even nuclear energy has been increasing steadily.
In Slides 19 and 20, we can look at the overall coal trade and mentioned that Howe Robinson believed that with price pressure building up on all energy sources during 2021, coal prices of both thermal and coking coal went up dramatically. After a decade of low prices and declining investment in the coal industry, supply has tightened. This was made worse by labor shortages, heavy rains and limited access to heavy machinery, which made it impossible for miners to even maintain previous volumes of coal exports. Even Europe, where coal consumption has been strongly discouraged for years, increased its coal imports, which even at $261 per tonne, remain well below the equivalent gas prices. This difference will widen even further in favor of coal with the anticipated increase in gas prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Main exporters of coal worldwide in 2021 were Australia with 31%; Indonesia, 28%; and Russia, 15% of exports.
In view of the imminent trade sanctions, Russia's coal exports to Europe and the West as well as elsewhere in the world will probably have to be replaced by coal from other exporters, including South Africa. Therefore, a combination of tight supply and high prices may, according to Howe Robinson, limit coal's positive impact on the dry bulk trade in 2022.
Let's turn to grain imports now. According to Clarksons, the overall global seaborne grain trade is projected to grow by about 3.7% this year and by a further 2.2% in 2023. Uncertainty prevails due to several factors, not least of which is the developing Ukraine Russia situation. In this respect, it is interesting to note that according to Clarksons, from the 542 million total grain exports expected to be shipped in 2022. 50 million tonnes are expected to come from Ukraine and the further 46.6 million tonnes from Russia. A conservative assumption would be that a large part of these exports will not happen and will be replaced with cargo from other exporting areas, mainly in North and South America.
During the first quarter of 2022, most of the soybean exports to China coming from North and South America will now come solely from the U.S. due to soybean crop damage caused by adverse weather conditions affecting primarily Brazil.
On Slide 21, we can look at the dry bulk order book and supply side issue. According to Banchero Costa, in 2021, there were just 353 dry bulk carriers delivered with an aggregate capacity of 35.8 million deadweight. This was down about 25% in deadweight terms compared to 2020. In 2022, the expectation is for about 332 units of 28.26 million deadweight to join the bulk carrier fleet after accounting for slippage and cancellations. From these deliveries, about 52 are expected to be Capes and VLOCs with a dead weight of about 10.5 million deadweight. According to Banchero Costa net fleet growth in 2021 came in at about 4% year-on-year. Net fleet growth in 2022 is expected to be 2% with a further small increase of 1% to take place in 2023. The order book for Capesize bulk carriers remain modest. According to Clarksons, there are 26.4 million deadweight of Capesize and post Capes on order, representing 7% of the dry bulk fleet. Most of these ships will be delivered this year and next approximately 11 million deadweight each year according to Banchero Costa. Net Cape and VLOC fleet growth this year is expected to be approximately 2% and about the same in 2023.
There are 19.2 million deadweight worth of Panamaxes on order, which is about 8.1% of the total Panamax fleet. About 9.3 million deadweight will be delivered this year and 10.5 million in 2023. The order book for smaller bulkers is even lower, giving a total bulk carrier fleet newbuilding order book of 64.1 million deadweight, equivalent to only 6.8% of the total bulk carrier fleet.
Looking quickly at congestion. As we will also mention later on, congestion in ports around the world is keeping about 36% of the active fleet tied up, waiting to lower the discharge. 2 weeks ago, congestion increased by 84 vessels in only 1 week, and that was only at major Australian and South American loading ports as well as Chinese discharging ports. The pre-COVID-19 average from 2016 to 2019 stood at around 30% of the active fleet.
According to Clarksons now looking at the green transition. About 35% of vessels on order measured by GRT are set to use alternative fuels, primarily LNG. LPG fuel is dominant for new LPG carriers, while there have been several orders for methanol-fueled container ships, although there remains a great deal of uncertainty over timing and technology choices. The fueling transition is expected to be a key driver for fleet renewal and new building interest at shipyards over the coming years.
Diana's forthcoming addition to the fleet, the Japanese newbuilding Capesize vessel, Florida, will be fueled by low sulfur fuel and powered by Tier 3 main engine and auxiliary engines as regards sulfur oxide emissions and nitrogen oxide emissions.
Turning to the outlook now, for our industry. We agree with Commodore Research that it is encouraging to see that in 2021, ordering activity stayed well below the highs seen in 2013, '14, even as spot rates have been faring much better than they did then. We also agree with Clarksons that the outlook for the dry bulk carrier market in 2022 remains positive even if full-year earnings could fall short of 2021's extremely healthy levels. Similar views are expressed by Commodore Research on bulk carrier rates, at least for this year. The IMF predictions for lower growth this year come to pass. It is likely that seasonality will certainly help boost the dry bulk market in the short and medium term, but there is no guarantee that 2022, as a whole, will fare as well as last year.
Fundamentals appear fairly balanced with the projected 2.5% growth in bulk carrier tonne-mile demand against a projected fleet growth of 2.1% for 2022. For next year, supply is expected to grow by between 0.3% and 1% depending on scrapping forecasts, slippage and other factors. Congestion, as mentioned earlier on in this presentation, stood in mid-February, close to a record 36% of the total fleet, and this might continue providing support going forward. As usual, future dry bulk carrier earnings will depend on development in supply and demand. These are particularly important now after the market has been through a period of fine balance between supply and demand for several quarters prior to 2021.
As a result of this period of stability, significant strength or weakness in rates surfaces even with relatively minor changes in supply/demand balance. And this is what we have been witnessing in 2021 and the early part of this year.
At this point, I will pass the call to our CEO, again, Semiramis Paliou, for a summary of the highlights of this presentation.